蘋果iPhone二季度銷量大預測
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????上周五，維基合伙人市場研究公司（Wedge Partners）的布萊恩?布萊爾在報告中提醒客戶，華爾街對蘋果公司（Apple）iPhone手機第二季度的銷量預期可能非常離譜，甚至到了危險的程度。 ????他說：“今年一月份，蘋果公司報告上年第四季度的銷量為3,700萬部，這一數字相當驚人，而今年第一季度3,500萬部的銷量也同樣強勁……我們的觀點是，近期對iPhone手機銷量的預期可能過高，而在每股611美元的股價水平上，這顯露出了一些風險。” ????布萊爾預計今年第三季度的銷量將在2,800萬到3,000萬部之間。 ????他總結說：“如果分析師一致預測第三季度iPhone銷量將達到3,100萬部，那我們應該提高警惕了。” ????這種觀點很有意思，因為我們對61位追蹤蘋果公司表現的分析師做過調研，其中包括27位職業分析師和34位獨立分析人士。3,100萬恰好是這兩組分析師預測結果的分水嶺。 ????職業分析師的平均預期是2,954萬部，而獨立分析人士的平均預期是3,117萬部。 ????在其他領域，獨立分析人士幾乎是全盤看漲，而職業分析師則是普遍持謹慎態度。但對于iPhone銷量的預期則正好相反。一些職業分析師給出了很高的預期，比如加貝利資產信托有限公司（Gabelli）分析師亨迪?蘇山多預期達3,460萬部，Societe General的分析師安迪?柏金思預期達3,300萬部，他們給出的預期最高。而在另一極端上，數據調查機構Asymco的哈瑞斯?德迪歐和蘋果財務討論版論壇（Apple Finance Board）的考利?福斯伯格等獨立分析人士給出了最低的預期，只有2,850萬部。 ????我們有六名保持著長期最佳記錄的分析師。他們的預期通常會比最樂觀的獨立分析人士要低，而比最謹慎的職業分析師要高。他們六位本季度的預期結果比布萊爾提出的警戒線高出不少，平均預期達到3,210萬部。 ????7月24日周二收市后，蘋果將公布其收益。屆時我們將看到誰的預期最接近。 ????各位分析師的預期見下圖：職業分析師的結果用藍色表示，而獨立分析人士的結果用綠色表示。請關注兩種顏色的交替出現，這種情況不太尋常。 |
????In a note to clients Friday Wedge Partners' Brian Blair warned that the Street's expectations for Apple's (AAPL) iPhone sales in the June quarter might be getting dangerously out of line. ????"In January," he wrote, "Apple reported a monstrous 37 million units for the December quarter, followed by an almost equally strong March quarter of 35 million units... Our view is that iPhone unit estimates may end up being too high near term, and with the stock at $611 it presents some risk." ????Blair is looking for Q3 sales to come in between 28 and 30 million units. ????"We would be cautious," he concludes, "if consensus expectations for units shape up to be 31 million units or higher for June." ????That's interesting, because in our survey of 61 Apple analysts -- 27 professionals and 34 independents -- 31 million iPhones happens to be the dividing line between the two groups. ????The average estimate among the pros is 29.54 million and the average among the indies is 31.17 million. ????But unlike other categories, where the indies are almost universally bullish and the pros universally cautious, the iPhone numbers are all over the lot, with professionals like Gabelli's Hendi Susanto (at 34.6 million) and Societe General's Andy Perkins (33 million) offering some of the highest estimates we've seen. At the other extreme, independents like Asymco's Horace Dediu and Corey Forsberg of the Apple Finance Board offered some of the lowest estimates: 28.5 million apiece. ????Our six analysts with the best track record, who usually offer estimates lower than the most optimistic indies but higher than the more cautious pros, came in this quarter well over Blair's warning line, with an average estimate of 32.1 million. ????We'll find out who was closest to the mark when Apple reports its earnings after the markets close on Tuesday, July 24. ????Below the fold: The analysts' individual estimates, with the pros in blue and the amateurs in green. Note the unusual mixing of the two colors. |
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