臺灣供應商銷售下滑無礙蘋果未來表現
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????投資公司Topeka的布萊恩?懷特一直在跟蹤一批臺灣電子產品供應商的業績，并將其作為蘋果（Apple）未來業績的“晴雨表”。本周一上午，懷特與客戶分享了一個壞消息。 ????懷特的“蘋果監控表”中只有一家公司尚未提交收益報告，其他公司的銷售額在六月環比下降了13％，相比之下，過去七年，六月份的銷售額同比平均增長1％。 ????第二季度，這些供應商的銷售額也相應下降，降幅達8％，而在過去五年，銷售額在第二季度都上漲了8％。不過，情況仍好于蘋果在四月份給出的收益指引，懷特稱，蘋果當時預測降幅可能會達到13％。 ????盡管如此，懷特仍堅持他對蘋果給出的1,111美元的目標股價——這是我們所見到的最高的目標股價。懷特指出，蘋果供應商銷售額下降，部分原因可能在于這些公司其他客戶銷售乏力，而不是因為蘋果公司自身的問題。他最后給出了積極的結論： ????我們仍然認為，在眼下這種不明朗的環境下，進入2012年下半年，投資高科技公司的最佳選擇依然是蘋果公司。即便在2008至2009年金融危機期間，蘋果公司的收入在2008年增長了40％，在2009年增長了20％；相比之下，整個科技界收入下降了20-30％。今年也非比尋常，我們相信，蘋果公司在今年下半年推出新產品的力度將超過歷史同期，我們預計它將推出iPhone5以及“迷你版iPad”，并有可能推出一款蘋果電視機。我們也期待著中國移動（China Mobile）可能在2013年上半年開始銷售iPhone，這將令投資者們興奮不已。（粗體字是我們標注的） ????譯者：項航 |
????Topeka's Brian White, who tracks the performance of a collection of Taiwanese electronics suppliers as a "barometer" of Apple's (AAPL) future performance, shared some bad news with his clients Monday morning. ????With only one company in his "Apple Monitor" not yet reporting, sales among these suppliers were down 13% month over month in June, compared with an average 1% increase over the past seven Junes. ????For the June quarter, sales among these suppliers were down 8% sequentially, well below the 8% uptick in the same quarter over the past five years but still above the guidance Apple offered in April, which according to White called for a 13% decline. ????White is nonetheless sticking with his $1,111 price target for Apple -- one of the highest we've seen. He points out that some of the decline among Apple's suppliers may be due to the weakness of their other customers' sales, not Apple's. And he concludes on a positive note: ????We continue to believe that there is no better tech company to own during this uncertain environment, and heading into the second-half of the year, than Apple. Even during the financial crisis of 2008-2009, Apple grew revenue by 40% in CY08 and 20% in CY09 versus declines of 20-30% across the tech world. This year is also unique in that we believe Apple is poised for the biggest second-half product launch in its history with our expectation of an iPhone 5 and an "iPad Mini", combined with the potential for an Apple TV. We also look forward to the potential addition of China Mobile (CHL) during the first half of 2013, providing plenty of excitement for investors. (emphasis ours) |
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