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全球央行聯(lián)手也拯救不了歐元
 作者: Cyrus Sanati    時間: 2011年12月01日    來源: 財富中文網(wǎng)
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各國央行降低美元融資成本的聯(lián)合行動無法解決歐債危機。最佳出路是發(fā)行歐洲債券,但前提是考慮周全、妥善行事。
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????債務(wù)危機重創(chuàng)歐洲經(jīng)濟,創(chuàng)口血如泉涌,歐洲領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人卻只能眼睜睜地看著之前貼在傷口上的創(chuàng)可貼開始慢慢脫落。由于無法擴容至必需的規(guī)模,歐洲最大的救助基金、高達4,400億歐元的歐洲金融穩(wěn)定基金(European Financial Stability Facility)昨晚最終宣告無法為歐元區(qū)帶來穩(wěn)定,最大的一塊創(chuàng)可貼也正式失效。基金負(fù)責(zé)人號召歐洲央行(European Central Bank)出臺更多措施以穩(wěn)定形勢,不言而喻,這顯然是在推卸責(zé)任。

????在美聯(lián)儲(US Federal Reserve)的牽頭下,歐洲六大央行聯(lián)手出招,將現(xiàn)有臨時美元流動性互換安排的定價下調(diào)50個基點。然而,這一聯(lián)合行動看起來不過是另外一張創(chuàng)可貼。雖然此番聯(lián)合救市會降低歐洲銀行的美元融資成本,也會令部分歐元區(qū)成員國不斷攀升的債券收益率有所下降,但卻解決不了根本問題。救市效果不會長久,也無法解決困擾歐元區(qū)的結(jié)構(gòu)性財政問題。而且,這并不是各國央行第一次在金融危機中采取聯(lián)合行動。根據(jù)以往的經(jīng)驗來判斷,當(dāng)市場發(fā)現(xiàn)根本問題并未解決之后,救市推動的市場上漲通常都是曇花一現(xiàn)。

????現(xiàn)在,解決歐洲債務(wù)危機似乎只有兩種選擇:一是歐洲央行充當(dāng)整個歐元區(qū)的最后貸款人,二是將該地區(qū)成員國的債務(wù)集中起來,統(tǒng)一發(fā)行“歐洲債券”。

????從中短期來看,歐洲央行充當(dāng)最后貸款人顯然是解決債務(wù)危機最簡單、最迅速的方法,但它不能解決歐元的核心問題,即財政一體化的缺失。而發(fā)行統(tǒng)一的歐洲債券需要一體化的財政,只有這樣才可能解決核心問題。然而,歐洲各國的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人是否愿意、或者說確實已經(jīng)走投無路,只能把財政大權(quán)拱手交給歐盟?要知道,財政大權(quán)可以說是他們最重要的權(quán)力。

????關(guān)于如何發(fā)行歐洲債券,目前有幾種方案。歐洲部分國家希望歐洲債券完全取代歐洲大陸所有的主權(quán)債務(wù),這樣一來融資風(fēng)險就可以分散到歐元區(qū)全部17個成員國身上。但在這種情況下,意大利和希臘等高負(fù)債國家的借款利率會就從記錄高點下降,而德國和荷蘭等財政穩(wěn)健國家的融資成本則會上升。

????這種局面對德國人來說有失公平,所以他們始終拒絕有關(guān)發(fā)行歐洲債券的任何對話。德國人認(rèn)為,迫使他們勒緊腰帶的唯一因素就是奢侈成員國(過度奢侈導(dǎo)致財政失衡,債臺高筑---譯注)的利率壓力。不過,如果這些國家愿意把財政權(quán)交給歐盟,同時實施類似德國的平衡預(yù)算方案,最終德國似乎也愿意承擔(dān)發(fā)行歐洲債券對融資成本造成的沖擊。

????歐元區(qū)有關(guān)統(tǒng)一財政和貨幣政策的想法似乎能夠最終縫合歐洲不斷惡化的債務(wù)危機創(chuàng)傷,同時增強該地區(qū)的團結(jié)。但是,歐洲債券只不過體現(xiàn)這一想法的工具,而并非解決方案。即便如此,歐洲領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人仍對此猶豫不決。大量現(xiàn)有的歐洲債券構(gòu)成方案看起來更像是創(chuàng)可貼式的權(quán)宜之計,而不是手術(shù)式的最終縫合。

????European leaders are watching the Band-Aids they stuck on the eurozone's gushing wound of debt start to peel off. The largest attempted fix, the 440 billion euro European Financial Stability Facility, finally fell off last night, after the fund announced that it would not be able to lever up to a level that could actually bring stability to the eurozone. The head of the EFSF called on the European Central Bank to do more to stabilize the situation, ostensibly passing the buck.

????Today's coordinated action by the central banks of developed nations, led by the US Federal Reserve, to lower the pricing on existing temporary U.S. dollar liquidity swap arrangements by 50 basis points, looks like yet another Band-Aid. While this will make it cheaper for European banks to access critical dollar funding, and it will lower skyrocketing bond yields of some eurozone nations, it isn't a solution to the problem. The effects are temporary and do not address the structural fiscal problems plaguing the eurozone. And this isn't the first time there has been coordinated action between central banks during the financial crisis. The subsequent market rallies that accompany such moves usually fizzle out after it becomes clear that the root of the problem still exists.

????Solving the European crisis seems to have devolved into a binary choice whereby either the European Central Bank becomes the lender of last resort for the entire eurozone or the zone's nations pool their debt and issues joint "eurobonds."

????The ECB choice is clearly the easiest and fastest way to put an end to this crisis in the short to medium term, but it doesn't solve the common currency's core problem -- its lack of fiscal integration. The issuance of a common debt instrument would require such fiscal integration, ostensibly extinguishing the core problem. But are European politicians ready, or indeed desperate enough, to hand over the power of the purse, arguably their greatest power, to bureaucrats in Brussels?

????There are several proposals floating about as to how the eurobond could become a reality. There are constituents in Europe that want the eurobond to totally replace all sovereign debt in the continent, therefore spreading out the funding risk to all 17 members of the euro. This would see the borrowing rates of deeply indebted nations, like Italy and Greece, drop from their record highs, while countries with strong balance sheets, like Germany and the Netherlands, would see their rates rise.

????Such a scenario seems unfair to the Germans, which have repeatedly blocked any talk of issuing eurobonds. They believe that the interest rate pressure on profligate nations is the only thing that is forcing them to actually tighten their belts. But the Germans finally seem open to taking a hit in interest rates if those nations give up their fiscal authority to the EU and take on a German-like balanced budget solution.

????This idea of melding the eurozone's fiscal and monetary policies seems to be the stitch that will finally seal Europe's growing debt wound and bind the continent together. The eurobond is simply the vehicle by which this idea is manifested, it isn't the solution. But European leaders are still hesitant to give in. There are a number of eurobond structures floating about that seem to be more Band-Aid than stitch.







更多




最佳評論

@關(guān)子臨: 自信也許會壓倒聰明,演技的好壞也許會壓倒腦力的強弱,好領(lǐng)導(dǎo)就是循循善誘的人,不獨裁,而有見地,能讓人心悅誠服。    參加討論>>
@DuoDuopa:彼得原理,是美國學(xué)者勞倫斯彼得在對組織中人員晉升的相關(guān)現(xiàn)象研究后得出的一個結(jié)論:在各種組織中,由于習(xí)慣于對在某個等級上稱職的人員進行晉升提拔,因而雇員總是趨向于晉升到其不稱職的地位。    參加討論>>
@Bruce的森林:正念,應(yīng)該可以解釋為專注當(dāng)下的事情,而不去想過去這件事是怎么做的,這件事將來會怎樣。一方面,這種理念可以幫助員工排除雜念,把注意力集中在工作本身,減少壓力,提高創(chuàng)造力。另一方面,這不失為提高員工工作效率的好方法。可能后者是各大BOSS們更看重的吧。    參加討論>>


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