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德國維持繁榮必須保住歐元

德國維持繁榮必須保住歐元

Cyrus Sanati 2011-11-17
弱勢貨幣是德國通往經濟繁榮不可或缺的一張船票。這個國家不僅需要歐元,也需要歐元區里經濟最弱的國家繼續留在這個貨幣聯盟內。

????將弱國趕出歐元區并不能解決歐洲大陸的經濟問題。這樣魯莽的舉動只會給歐元區核心成員國(尤其是出口型經濟的德國)帶來更多的傷害,而不是好處。同心協力,共同分擔痛苦似乎是最好的選擇,但現在還不清楚歐元區核心成員國到底愿意承擔多少痛苦。

????歐債危機曠日持久,但歐元區的完整性一直被核心成員國視為神圣不可侵犯。希臘這樣揮霍無度的成員國應該被趕出這個由17個成員國組成的共同貨幣聯盟,這樣的想法很快遭到了德國、法國等核心成員國主流政客們的否決。

????但如今在這個問題上已開始顯露分歧。兩周前,德法領導人們開始暗示可以預見希臘獲準退出歐元區的情形。上周,法國總統薩科齊更進一步,甚至聲稱可以預見一個“雙速”歐洲的出現。屆時歐盟強國的經濟增速將更加同步,而弱國將被遠遠地落在后頭。

????交易員們將此解讀為可能出現一個縮水的歐元區,即歐元區的核心成員國聯合起來組建一個強有力的財政貨幣聯盟,而邊緣國家將退出歐元,深陷債務泥沼。表面上,這似乎是針對歐洲經濟危機愈演愈烈的最佳解決方案。核心成員國一直以來牢牢地看著自家的錢袋子,它們不必為了拯救只有十年歷史的歐元而出手救助邊緣國家。

????當然,事情沒有那么簡單。過去十年,邊緣國家欠下的債務多是向總部位于核心國家的銀行借的。關于硬違約可能給歐元區脆弱的銀行體系帶來怎樣的沖擊,之前已有太多討論。就算主權債務沒有壓垮它們,邊緣國家民眾欠下的幾萬億歐元貸款也會達到同樣的效果。

????對于普通的德國民眾,這聽起來可能非常不公。為什么他們必須要擔起這些重任,既要拯救像希臘這樣的整個國家,還要拯救總部位于巴黎、阿姆斯特丹等地有錢的大銀行?鑒于這樣的現實,有些人可能會問,為什么德國沒有出現一場更大規模的、類似于“占領華爾街”(Occupy Wall Street)那樣的運動,憤怒的德國失業青年們也沒有去法蘭克福的公園里露營抗議。

????Booting out the weak members of the eurozone won't solve the continent's economic problems. Such a bold move would cause more harm than good for core members of the euro, most notably, export-driven Germany. A coordinated effort to share the pain seems to be the best option out there, but it's unclear how much pain the core eurozone countries are willing to take.

????The integrity of the eurozone has been considered sacrosanct by its core members throughout the long running European sovereign debt crisis. The idea that a profligate member of the zone, like Greece, would need to be kicked out of the 17- member common currency was quickly dismissed by mainstream politicians of core member states, like Germany and France.

????But cracks in that resolve have started to form. Two weeks ago, the leaders of Germany and France hinted that they could envision a scenario in which Greece would be allowed to leave the common currency. French President Nicholas Sarkozy took the issue a bit further last week when he said he could envision a "two-speed" Europe, where strong members of the European Union would grow closer while weak members would be left to putter in the background.

????Traders have interpreted this to mean that a smaller eurozone may be on the horizon, one where the core members of the euro unite to form a strong fiscal and monetary union, while the peripheral nations exit the common currency and drown in debt. On the surface this seems like the best solution to a growing European economic crisis that shows no signs of abating. The core members have been good stewards of their money and shouldn't have to bail out the periphery just to save a 10-year-old common currency.

????Of course, things aren't that simple. Most of the debt that the periphery has racked up over the past decade has been financed by banks that are headquartered in the core countries. There has been a lot of discussion surrounding what a hard default could do to the region's fragile banking system. If the sovereign debt didn't crush them, then the trillions of euros in private loans that were extended to people living in the periphery would do the trick.

????To the average German citizen this probably seems very unfair. Why should they have to shoulder the heavy burdens of not only bailing out whole countries, like Greece, but also big rich banks headquartered in places like Paris and Amsterdam? Given this stark reality, some may question why there isn't a larger "Occupy Wall Street"-like movement made up of angry and unemployed young Germans camping out in Frankfurt parks.

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