軟件將蠶食1.2萬億美元的服裝業
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????硅谷著名投資人馬克?安德森曾經敏銳地指出，“應用軟件正在蠶食世界”。上周四，研究公司Asymco的分析師霍雷斯?德迪歐進一步論述了這種觀點。在仔細觀察了該產業之后，他得出結論：服裝業將成為下一個被蠶食的行業。 ????他寫道： ????“應用軟件已經“蠶食”了相當份額的娛樂業【比如皮克斯動畫工作室（Pixar）、iTunes、電子游戲】、通訊業（iPhone、安卓、短消息）以及包括新聞、管理和法律在內的其他許多行業。它們正在進入交通運輸、能源和衛生保健領域，并做好了進攻銀行、金融和政府部門的準備。” ????德迪歐認為，規模高達1.2萬億美元的服裝業已經到了分崩離析的時候了。 ????人們花錢買衣服不僅是為了抵御自然環境的影響，就像付通訊費不僅是為了傳達重要信息一樣。人們在服裝上花的大部分錢、也許有80%，是為了滿足自己的心理需求。 ????“這其中蘊藏著機遇。既然服裝的價值遠非其功能性，那么我們完全可以用更好的解決方案來替代新產品在心理層面的作用。看看美國青少年的行為：舉個例子，隨著他們越來越依靠電子設備和服務來獲取良好的自我感覺，他們在服裝上的花費正變得越來越少。而在這樣的背景下，隨著購買力向電子設備傾斜，服裝零售業就會陷入危機。” ????“那么誰正在為這一趨勢厲兵秣馬呢？”在最后，他隱晦地點出了蘋果公司：“你可以看看業內的招聘消息。”（財富中文網） ????譯者：嚴匡正 |
????Expanding on Mark Andreessen’s observation that “software is eating the world,” Asymco’s Horace Dediu took a close look Thursday at the industry he believes is next: Apparel. ????Already, he writes, ????Software has ‘eaten’ large portions of entertainment (e.g. Pixar, iTunes, video games), telecommunications (iPhone, Android, Messaging), various professions including journalism, management and law, and is entering transportation, energy and health care and poised over banking, finance and government.” ????Apparel, he believes, is a $1.2 trillion industry ripe for disruption. ????This amount of money is not spent only to protect the wearer from the elements — any more than the money spent on telecommunications is spent to convey vital information. Most of the value in apparel, perhaps 80%, is spent on solving psychological needs. ????“And therein lies the opportunity. As the value is beyond functional, substitution of psychological jobs by new products is a matter of engineering better solutions. Consider the behavior of US teens: anecdotally, their spending on apparel is fadingas the solution to feeling good about themselves increasingly relies on a device and service. Already, in this context, apparel retail is in crisis while buying shifts to devices.” ????“To know who’s already planning for this,” he concludes with a sly reference to Apple, “you can follow the trade news on the hiring of talent.” |
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