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????上個月有傳言稱，圖片應用網站Snapchat拒絕了Facebook公司的收購要約。聽說這個消息之后，我在投資意向書電郵里寫了下面這些內容：
????最有意思的問題在于，Facebook的收購興趣對Snapchat以高額估值募集更多資本這個計劃的影響（這筆交易很可能會納入更多創始人的流動資產）。一種說法是，表明別人相信這家公司的價值遠比扎克伯格的出價要高，借此促使他提高出價。另一個、同時也是更可信的說法是，這種自我抬價是為了打消所有人，包括創始人和早期投資者（他們可能也能收回一部分現金），出售公司的念頭。 ????現在看來，后面這個說法好像是真的。 ????Facebook一開始的出價據說在10億美元到20億美元之間，但今天《華爾街日報》（WSJ）報道稱，扎克伯格后來把價碼加到了30億美元，卻還是被拒絕了！ ????乍一看，真是豈有此理。一個創建不到三年，還沒有收入的公司居然拒掉了一筆估值是圖片應用網站Instagram或輕博客Tumblr賣價三倍的收購要約！這個出價也是扎克伯格當初同意接受雅虎公司（Yahoo）出價的三倍，只是后來雅虎看走了眼，自己放棄了。 ????不過這種豪氣并不是沒有先例。比如家喻戶曉的一個例子，團購網站Groupon拒掉了谷歌公司（Google）的60億美元出價。還有大家最近看到的尼克?比爾頓的做法，好像過去三年里，從扎克伯格到阿爾?戈爾都想買下Twitter公司。 ????更重要的是，Snapchat和它的投資者似乎都深信自己的公司就是下一代社交網絡的代表——而不是現在業界大佬的附庸。Snapchat是提供即時/一次性溝通服務的，它不會長期保存聊天記錄。 ????是的，這就意味著會出現色情短信。不過想想看，青少年時期大家總有一些不愿意公開（不光不想讓父母看到，甚至連對自己的很多朋友都不愿公開）的聊天。而對千禧一代來說，這類溝通很多都是用照片、而不是通過聲音（或是文本——除非是加些簡短的字幕）進行的。 |
????When word came last month that Snapchat had turned down an acquisition offer from Facebook (FB), I wrote the following in the Term Sheet email: ????Most interesting is the question of how Facebook's interest is impacting Snapchat's plan to raise new capital at a big valuation (a deal that likely will include more founder liquidity). One theory is that it's an effort to make Zuckerberg increase his offer, by showing that others believe the company is far more valuable than his opening volley. An alternate – and more likely – theory is that this raise is to eliminate any temptation to sell the company, both for the founders and early investors (who may also get some cash back). ????Well, it seems to have been the latter. ????Facebook's original offer was said to be for between $1 billion and $2 billion, but today the WSJ is reporting that Zuckerberg later raised the stakes to $3 billion. And was still rebuffed! ????At first blush, it seems ridiculous. A pre-revenue company founded less than three years ago turns down a deal that would value it at 3X what either Instagram or Tumblr got. Or at up to 3X what Zuckerberg originally agreed to take from Yahoo (YHOO), before Yahoo mistakenly got cold feet. ????But there is some precedent. Groupon (GRPN), for example, famously shunned a $6 billion offer from Google (GOOG). And, as we recently learned from Nick Bilton, it seems that everyone from Zuckerberg to Al Gore has tried to purchase Twitter over the years. ????More importantly, Snapchat and its investors seem to believe that this company is the next generation of social networking -- not an add-on to the dominant incumbent. Snapchat is about immediate/disposable communication, not permanent record-keeping. ????Yes, some of that means sexting. But think about all of the conversations you had as a teenager that you wouldn't have voluntarily put out for public consumption (not only for your parents, but even for many of your friends). And, for millennials, a lot of that communication comes via photo, rather than via voice (or even text -- save, perhaps, for a quick caption). |
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