Snapchat天價估值背后有何玄機
|
????Snapchat是全世界成長最快的移動應用之一，它的用戶每天分享的“快照”數量超過2億張。或許你還不知道Snapchat（30歲以上的讀者恐怕都不太知道它），“快照”是在被查看后的10秒鐘內自動銷毀的即時消息或照片。 ????Snapchat的估價的攀升速度在移動應用中也是首屈一指。昨天有多份報告指出，Snapchat在新一輪風險融資中籌得6,000萬美元，融資前估值為8億美元（Snapchat證實了這筆交易，但沒有透露具體的財務細節）。 ????然而，Snapchat目前還沒有收入，也沒有清晰可見的獲得收入的路徑。 ????鑒于“快照”很快就自動銷毀了，傳統的移動廣告模式似乎不適合。或許同電視廣告一樣，可能會有一些回憶價值。但就電視廣告而言，在30秒的廣告插播時段，觀眾在電視屏幕上只有廣告可看。而就“Snapchat”而言，僅有短短10秒的時間，而且在此期間用戶是專注于別的東西（即“快照”消息的內容）。而且，較之Pinterest和Tumblr等公司聚集的信息，Snapchat上的許多信息似乎是轉瞬即逝。說到Tumblr，它被雅虎（Yahoo）收購時的估價也就比Snapchat本輪估價高出25％左右。這樣的回報對IVP等后期投資者而言還算可以，但遠算不上豐厚。 ????那么，對Snapchat的估價是否單單是根據它海量的使用量和飛速增長，以及相信會有雅虎那樣的公司不顧一切地接盤？我認為這也說不過去，因為Tumblr最終的賣價也就比融資后估值高出25％。當然，Snapchat可以引入某種訂閱模式——或將無限量“快照”變成收費服務——但這可能會對它的增長造成一定的影響，而且可能導致用戶和市場份額被競爭對手蠶食。 ????又或許“快照”服務其實只是一個幌子，目的是圈住用戶，同時Snapchat可以完善它真正的移動攝像應用程序。 |
????Snapchat is one of the world's fastest-growing mobile apps, with users sharing more than 200 million "snaps" per day. For the uninitiated (or those over 30), "snaps" are instant messages/photos that self-destruct ten seconds or less after being viewed. ????It also has one of the mobile world's fastest-growing valuations, with multiple reports out today that the company has raised $60 million in new VC funding at an $800 million pre-money valuation (the company confirmed the deal, sans financial specifics). ????What Snapchat doesn't have yet, however, is revenue. Nor does it have easily identifiable paths to revenue. ????Traditional mobile advertising would seem to be a no-go, given how quickly snaps disappear. There may be some residual recall value like with television ads, although it's tough to compare a 10-second view when the user is focused on something else (i.e., the snap's content) to a 30-second spot where the user only has one thing to watch on the screen. Much of the data also seems fleeting, compared with information collected by such companies as Pinterest and Tumblr. And, speaking of Tumblr, it was acquired by Yahoo (YHOO) at a valuation just 25% or so higher than this round. That would be a decent return for late-stage investors like IVP, but hardly spectacular. ????So is this valuation based solely on massive usage/growth, and the belief that someone like Yahoo (YHOO) will be desperate for it as a feature? That doesn't make sense to me either, given that Tumblr sold for just 25% more than the post-money. Snapchat always could introduce some sort of subscription model -- or make unlimited snaps a premium service -- but that could eat a bit into the growth and enable cannibalization by a rival service. ????Or maybe the snap service is really just a Trojan horse, securing users while the company polishes up what could become the de facto mobile camera app. |
最新文章