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??? 投資銀行Piper Jaffray公司的分析師吉恩?蒙斯特借鑒傳統媒體和網絡媒體所用的常規手法，把自己對蘋果公司（Apple）的看法歸納為10大要點。 ??? 上周四，蘋果股價收盤報565.32美元。而現在，蒙斯特公開發表了自己對蘋果股價的預言——兩年內將達到每股1,000美元。這場好戲將會如何上演，請看他的如下10條觀點： 1. 雄心勃勃的產品路線圖。蒙斯特預計，未來12個月里，蘋果將密集推出一系列新產品和產品更新，包括新款iPhone、筆記本電腦Mac、新iPad和蘋果電視。 2. 大幅升級iPhone 5。他預測，這一幕將在10月揭曉，用他的話來說，那將是“2012年最盛大的消費電子產品發布，也是智能手機史上最大的一次產品升級”。 3. 2013年推出蘋果電視。對此蒙斯特并未失去信心。他預計，蘋果電視將于今年12月推出，定價在1,500美元至2,000美元，屏幕尺寸在42英寸到55英寸之間。 4. 運營商將繼續提供補貼。這種狀況至少還會持續兩三年。盡管不斷有人議論，要降低運營商對iPhone的補貼，但運營商喜歡賣蘋果手機所帶來的低流失率，喜歡蘋果手機輕松大賣的本事，而且每賣出一部手機還不用向蘋果公司返利。 5. 高達40%的毛利率。在科技類公司中，蘋果的利潤率一直是眾人垂涎的對象。蒙斯特預計，這種高利潤率至少還能維持三年。 6. “心臟移植”戰略。指的是蘋果公司要盡快淘汰舊產品，精簡產品線，獲得最佳零部件采購價格（這些都將轉化為更高的利潤）。 7. 中國的接受曲線。在美國，iPhone 4S第二財季的銷售下降了34%。蒙斯特認為，這種情形在中國市場不會發生。iPhone和iPad在中國才剛剛起步。 8. 平板電腦的銷量將超過個人電腦。蒙斯特預測，到2020年，平板電腦的銷售將超過個人電腦，iPad將繼續統治市場。 9. 企業銷售。蘋果不會改變重點。它將繼續依靠消費者市場推動面向企業市場的銷售——至少iPhone和iPad這兩種產品將繼續維持這一策略。Mac則不會獲得這種重視，因為與微軟公司不同（Microsoft），蘋果不會一直為舊版操作系統提供支持，直至其面臨淘汰。 10. 科技界規模最大的注冊用戶基礎。盡管蘋果的服務業務（iTunes、蘋果商店等）僅僅只做到了收支平衡，但這些服務已使其硬件平臺規模龐大，極富黏性。用戶一旦購買了某個蘋果產品，從此就會一發而不可收。 ??? 譯者：清遠 |
??? Borrowing one of the oldest devices in print and online journalism, Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster has boiled his thoughts about Apple (AAPL) into something like a top 10 list. ??? Munster is on record predicting that the company's share price -- which closed at $565.32 Thursday -- will hit $1,000 within two years. Here are his 10 ideas about how it gets there: 1. An aggressive product roadmap. Munster expects a rapid sequence of new products and product updates over the next 12 months, including a new iPhone, new Macs, a new iPad and a TV. 2. A huge iPhone 5 upgrade. He predicts it will happen in October and be, in his words, "the biggest consumer electronics product launch of 2012 as well as the biggest device upgrade cycle in smartphone history." 3. Apple television in 2013. Munster hasn't lost the faith. He expects it to be announced this December and priced between $1,500 and $2,000 for screen sizes ranging from 42" to 55". 4. Carrier subsidies to continue. For at least another 2-3 years. Despite the chatter about reducing the subsidies they pay for the iPhone, carriers like the low churn rates, the fact that the device sells itself and that they don't have to pay Apple a bounty for each sale. 5. 40% gross margins. Apple's profit margins are the envy of the tech sector, and Munster expects them to continue for at least three more years. 6. "Heart transplant" strategy. This is Apple's strategy of eliminating old products as quickly as possible, streamlining its product line and securing the best component prices possible (which translates to higher margins). 7. China's adoption curve. In the U.S., iPhone sales slowed down 34% in the second quarter of iPhone 4S sales. Munster doesn't think that will happen in China, where the iPhone and iPad are just taking off. 8. Tablets will be bigger than PCs. By 2020, Munster estimates, tablets will be outselling personal computers and the iPad will still dominate the market. 9. Enterprise sales. Apple won't change its spots; it will continue to rely on consumer adoption to drive adoption in the corporate market -- at least for iPhones and iPads. Macs not so much, because unlike Microsoft (MSFT), Apple doesn't support old operating systems until the end of time. 10. The largest registered user base in the tech world. Although Apple runs its services (iTunes, App Store, etc.) at just above break-even, those services make Apple's hardware platforms both very big and very sticky. Once you give Apple your credit card number, you tend to stick around. |
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