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????請做好準備，美國商界愚不可及、指鹿為馬、違法亂紀的行為將越來越多。這個趨勢不可避免。事實上，這個趨勢可能已經開始抬頭。 ????這個問題并不新鮮，只是我們已經有段時間沒碰到了，而人們一向健忘。這就是利潤預期問題，眼下的預期樂觀得近乎荒唐。企業界和華爾街分析人士給出的利潤增長預期甚至讓盲目樂觀的波莉安娜【埃莉諾?H?波特所著小說《波莉安娜》（Pollyanna）中的人物——譯注】也自愧不如，形同魯里埃爾?羅比尼（羅比尼曾成功預測09年金融危機，被稱為“末日博士”——譯注）。如果企業管理者們為了達成這些不可能實現的數字使勁渾身解數，有些人就可能因此步入歧途。而一旦他們撞上殘酷的現實，投資者就會遭殃。2006-2007年我們就曾見過這種情況，當時分析師們一廂情愿的以為，全球經濟繁榮將永無止境。20世紀90年代末，類似情形更是登峰造極。 ????目前，分析人士和商界都預計，企業利潤年增速繼超過30%之后仍將繼續保持穩健——鑒于美國經濟遲滯，亞洲增速放緩，而歐洲可能發生大震動，這樣的預期自然算不上石破天驚。盡管世道對企業利潤不利，分析人士和業界仍然預計明年的利潤將出現強勁的兩位數增長。 ????這種預測毫無道理。公司利潤占GDP比例現在已經接近上一次經濟繁榮期的高點，同事也是二戰以來的高點，也就是10%左右。難道在這樣的水平之上真的還能大幅上升嗎？二戰以來，這個數字的平均水平為6%左右。長期而言，利潤增速難以超越整體的經濟增速。當然，部分地區的經濟增速遠快于陷入困境的西方世界，它們的利潤率確實能達到這樣的水平，但對總體于事無補。世界銀行（The World Bank）預計2012年全球GDP增幅僅為3.6%。而接受湯森路透（Thomson Reuters）調查的分析師們卻預計，標準普爾500指數的企業利潤明年增幅將高達10% 。 ????這并不是分析師們的疏忽所致。分析人士預測的是某些個別公司的利潤，而不是整體市場的利潤。然而，即便是在預測單個公司的利潤時，他們也傾向于袒護自己所覆蓋的公司。他們依然高度依賴這些公司給出的指導值。因此，他們總是自欺欺人，盲目相信即便經濟停滯，他們所跟蹤的公司也會拿出驕人的表現。他們偶爾也會正確。結果就是他們個個自認有理，但總體來看他們就是群瘋子。 ????經理們如果不能實現預期，就會受到嚴厲的懲罰，就算這些預期不且實際。因此，越來越多的經理會做出一些本不該做的事情，希望以此能實現目標。這些行為可以分為三類： ????愚不可及的行為：實現目標的最簡單方式就是削減費用。問題是高管們最愛拿來開刀的研發、市場營銷和員工培訓等支出只是會計業務意義上的費用，它們事實上是能在未來給公司帶來回報的投資。不幸的是，投資者們并不像公司管理者們想象的那樣一無所知。研究顯示，那些以損害未來業績為代價削減當前成本的公司往往會遭到市場的嚴厲懲罰。 |
????Brace yourself for an increase in stupid, misleading, or illegal action by U.S. companies. The trend is inevitable. In fact, odds are it's already under way. ????The problem is an old one, but we haven't seen it in a while, and memories are short. It's profit expectations -- they're insanely optimistic. Companies and the Wall Street analysts who follow them are forecasting profit increases that make Pollyanna look like Nouriel Roubini, which is not a pleasant image to contemplate. As managers strive desperately to make their impossible numbers, some will go astray. When reality catches up with them, investors will suffer. We saw it in 2006 and 2007, when analysts expected the global economic boom to go on forever. We saw it at a historic scale in the late '90s. ????Now analysts and companies are projecting that after rising at rates of over 30% a year, profit growth will moderate -- not a blinding flash of insight given America's creeping economy, slowing growth in Asia, and potential cataclysm in Europe. Nonetheless, even in that profit-hostile environment, they're still forecasting strong, double-digit profit growth next year. ????It makes no sense. Corporate profits as a percent of GDP are near their post-World War II high of about 10%, which was reached at the apex of the last boom. Are they really going to gallop ahead from that level? Their postwar average is about 6% of GDP. Long term, profits can't grow faster than the economy. Of course some of those profits come from regions growing much faster than the struggling West, but that provides little comfort. The World Bank's forecast of 2012 world GDP growth is all of 3.6%. Yet analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect S&P 500 profits to grow 10% next year. ????It's not that the analysts are oblivious. It's that they're forecasting profits for individual companies, not for the whole market, and they still tend to fall in love with the companies they're covering. They also still rely heavily on guidance from those companies. So they repeatedly fool themselves into believing that even if the economy is going nowhere, the company they're analyzing will blow the doors off. And occasionally they'll be right. The result is that individually they think they're being reasonable, yet collectively they're nuts. ????Managers get punished harshly for failing to meet expectations, even unrealistic ones, so in growing numbers they'll try to hit their targets by doing things they shouldn't. Think of them in three categories: ????Stupid: The easiest way to hit profit targets is to cut expenses. Trouble is, many of the expenses that managers most frequently cut -- R&D, marketing, and employee training -- are expenses only under accounting rules; they're actually investments that pay off later. Unfortunately for those managers, investors aren't as clueless as they think. Research shows that markets whack the stocks of companies that cut today's costs in ways that hurt tomorrow's performance. |
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