????平板電腦出貨量有望在2016年超過筆記本電腦，而移動PC的總出貨量在2017年有望實現強勁增長。根據NPD DisplaySearch最新按季發布的移動PC出貨及預測報告，移動PC出貨量將從2012年的3.47億部增長至2017年的8.09億部以上。

????拉動這一輪增長的將是以蘋果（Apple）iPad為代表的平板電腦，不過，這并不意味著傳統筆記本市場會急劇萎縮。傳統筆記本市場仍然有望獲得不小增長。NPD的報告預測，傳統筆記本電腦的銷量將從2012年的2.08億部增長至2017年3.93億部，而平板設備漲幅更大，將從目前的1.21億部暴漲至4.16億部。拉動增長的關鍵在于平板電腦開始被北美、西歐和日本等成熟市場普遍接納。NPD集團高級分析師理查德?西摩稱：“筆記本市場非常健康，我們的預測顯示，它的增長率將達到兩位數。推動平板電腦普及的原因之一是越來越多的廠商開始涉足這一市場。”

????雖然不少人認為平板電腦將取代筆記本電腦，不過從目前來看，這個趨勢并不明顯。西摩稱：“我們并沒有觀察到任何跡象顯示筆記本電腦就快玩完了。由于筆記本電腦變得越來越便宜，所以該市場仍在不斷增長。”雖然平板電腦增長迅猛，甚至已經超過了傳統筆記本，但其地位仍是“次要設備”，目前的平板電腦還無法完全取代筆記本。調研公司弗雷斯特研究公司（Forrester Research）的高級分析師薩拉?羅特曼?艾普斯認為：“所謂后PC時代實際上是PC+（PC plus）時代。平板電腦和智能手機只是額外的附加設備。”

????除了傳統計算機制造商外，其它許多公司也都在制造平板電腦。弗雷斯特早前預測稱，美國個人平板電腦市場的增速將高于之前的預期。這在很大程度上得益于亞馬遜（Amazon）和巴諾（Barnes & Noble）等公司擴展了平板市場。

????另一個值得考慮的因素是，只有將類似PC的平板電腦計算在內，才能說平板電腦的銷量超過了筆記本電腦。調研公司IHS iSuppli顯示器和平板部高級經理羅達?亞歷山大強調稱：“平板電腦市場尚處于發展初期，發展方向可能多種多樣。不過，人們給出的銷量各不相同。”

????事實上，IHS iSuppli的統計數字與NPD及弗雷斯特都不一樣。IHS iSuppli預測到2016年，多媒體平板電腦的出貨量將達到3.11億部，而PC平板電腦的出貨量為4,900萬部。整個筆記本市場將仍然保持3.22億部水平，其中包括平板電腦和傳統的非平板筆記本電腦。當然，這樣的統計更加讓人摸不著頭腦——因為有些平板電腦是筆記本，而顯然，并非所有筆記本都是平板。亞歷山大解釋說：“劃分的依據是，搭載ARM處理器和移動操作系統的平板屬于多媒體平板；搭載X86處理器和全功能桌面操作系統的則屬于PC平板。”

????就這一點而言，微軟（Microsoft）現在可謂做好了兩手準備，針對PC平板和筆記本市場的Windows 8系統，以及針對多媒體平板的Windows RT系統。亞歷山大補充說：“公司和企業客戶需要Windows 8系統來兼容之前的產品，而這樣的需求已成為微軟的沉重負擔。蘋果和其他公司能針對移動平臺開發出更快更靈活的系統，他們無需承擔任何歷史包袱，所以他們能夠更快地進行創新。”

????Shipments of tablet computers will surpass notebook shipments in 2016, but overall mobile PC shipments will see strong growth by 2017. According to the latest NPD DisplaySearch Quarterly Mobile PC Shipment and Forecast Report, mobile PC shipments will grow from 347 million units in 2012 to more than 809 million by 2017.

????Driving this growth will be tablet PCs, such as Apple's (AAPL) iPad, but this doesn't mean that traditional notebooks will be slammed shut. These are also expected to see growth in the same period. NPD's forecast predicts that traditional notebooks will actually increase from 208 million in 2012 to 393 million by 2017, while tablet devices will increase from 121 million to 416 million. A key driver for this is adoption in mature markets, including North American, Western Europe and Japan. "The notebook market is very healthy, and our forecast shows double-digit growth," said Richard Shim, senior analyst at NPD Group. "What is also driving tablet adoption is that there are more players getting in to the market."

????Despite some claims that tablets will replace notebooks this does not appear to be the course at present. "By no means do we see that notebooks are dead," Shim says. "The notebook market continues to grow because the platform is becoming less expensive." The growth of tablets, and even the outpacing of traditional notebooks, will continue as these remain a second device rather than a fully fledged replacement of the latter. "The post-PC era is really PC plus," said Sarah Rotman Epps, senior analyst for Forrester Research. "Tablets and smartphones are additives devices."

????These devices are also coming from additional sources beyond the traditional computer manufacturers. Forrester had predicted earlier this that the U.S. consumer tablet market is growing faster than previously forecast, in large part as Amazon (AMZN) and Barnes & Noble (BN) expand the addressable market for these devices.

????The other factor that is worth considering is that tablets are surpassing notebooks, only when PC tablets are factored in. "The tablet market is in its infancy, and it could go in many different directions," emphasized Rhoda Alexander, senior manager for monitors and tablets at IHS iSuppli. "The numbers however are all over the map with what people are saying."

????In fact, the numbers from IHS iSuppli differ from those of NPD and Forrester. IHS iSuppli forecasts 311 million media tablets to be sold in 2016 along with 49 million PC tablets, while the notebook market will hold steady at 322 million including tablet and non-tablet PC notebooks. This of course only creates more confusion -- as some tablets are notebooks, but obviously not all notebooks are tablets. "The distinction that we see is that a media tablets run on the ARM processor and feature a mobile operating system," explained Alexander, "where as the PC tablets still feature an X86 processor and full desktop OS."

????Microsoft (MSFT) is hedging its bets in this regard, with Windows 8 for the PC tablet and notebooks market, and the Windows RT operating system for the media tablets. "Corporate and enterprise customers need the legacy support that Windows 8 will provide," added Alexander. "This has been a hardship Microsoft has faced, as Apple and other companies have been able to work with faster and more dynamic OS for the mobile platforms. But they make no hesitations about being legacy free. That has allowed them to innovate more quickly."