頑固的通脹讓歐洲央行再次舉步維艱
David McHugh and The Associated Press
2024-08-04
克里斯蒂娜?拉加德（Christine Lagarde），歐洲央行行長。圖片來源：Arne Dedert—picture alliance/Getty Images
7月，歐元區二十國的通脹增至2.6%，依然頑固地高于歐洲央行目標值，也使得歐洲央行（European Central Bank）是否通過降息來促增長的下一步決策變得復雜化，而歐洲經濟在經歷了漫長的停滯之后亦未能呈現令人信服的復蘇。
歐盟統計機構歐盟統計局（Eurostat）周三發布的官方數據顯示，通脹較6月的2.5%有所上揚。歐洲央行密切關注的數據——服務業通脹率，依然處于的4.0%的高位，較之前的4.1%有所回落。
通脹的上揚將激化人們對歐洲央行9月12日會議下一步決策的討論。這家針對歐元區國家的央行在6月份進行了首次試探性利率下調，將其基準利率降至3.75%，降幅25個基點。這家央行的理事會隨后在7月的會議中叫停了降息，歐洲央行行長克里斯蒂娜?拉加德稱，央行將根據有關通脹和經濟表現的最新數據，通過每一次會議來制定下一步舉措。
歐洲央行與包括美聯儲在內的其他央行迅速提升利率，以應對俄烏戰爭、能源價格高企以及疫情后經濟的突發反彈所導致的通脹。疫情期間，零部件和原材料供應受到了限制。在俄羅斯切斷了大部分天然氣供應之后，歐洲受到的沖擊尤為嚴重。
能源價格有所回落，通脹如今也從2022年10月10.6%的峰值有所下降。然而，通脹已經影響到薪資以及服務行業價格，后者包括廣泛的門類，例如醫療、影票價格、餐廳菜價、酒店房價和美容院價格。受此影響，整體通脹率依然在2%-3%之間徘徊，高于歐洲央行2%的目標值，也就是業界認為的最有利于經濟的通脹水平。
在召開下一次會議之前，歐洲央行將拿到8月份的數據并對其進行解讀。歐洲央行官員稱，他們預計下半年通脹將圍繞當前水平波動，并在2025年底下滑至其目標值。
美聯儲官員正在權衡降息時間，其當前的峰值基準利率范圍為5.25%-5.5%。同時，美聯儲可能會通過即將于周三結束的會議來確定9月利率的走向。美國6月的年通脹率為3.0%。
加息會提升購物的信貸成本，減緩商品需求以及緩解價格壓力，從而以此來應對通脹。然而，更高的利率會抑制增長，而且歐洲最近的經濟數據毫無起色，同時，在經歷了一年多近乎零增長之后，歐洲也未能呈現令人信服的復蘇。
歐洲GDP今年前兩個季度的增幅均為0.3%，與此前近零增長或負增長相比已是連續5個季度有所好轉。然而最近，包括標準普爾全球采購經理人指數（S&P Global’s purchasing managers’ index）在內的未來經濟活動指標，認為歐洲經濟依然沒有什么起色。不過，其中一個助力是勞動力市場，失業率依然處于6.4%的低位。（財富中文網）
譯者：馮豐
審校：夏林
7月，歐元區二十國的通脹增至2.6%，依然頑固地高于歐洲央行目標值，也使得歐洲央行（European Central Bank）是否通過降息來促增長的下一步決策變得復雜化，而歐洲經濟在經歷了漫長的停滯之后亦未能呈現令人信服的復蘇。
歐盟統計機構歐盟統計局（Eurostat）周三發布的官方數據顯示，通脹較6月的2.5%有所上揚。歐洲央行密切關注的數據——服務業通脹率，依然處于的4.0%的高位，較之前的4.1%有所回落。
通脹的上揚將激化人們對歐洲央行9月12日會議下一步決策的討論。這家針對歐元區國家的央行在6月份進行了首次試探性利率下調，將其基準利率降至3.75%，降幅25個基點。這家央行的理事會隨后在7月的會議中叫停了降息，歐洲央行行長克里斯蒂娜?拉加德稱，央行將根據有關通脹和經濟表現的最新數據，通過每一次會議來制定下一步舉措。
歐洲央行與包括美聯儲在內的其他央行迅速提升利率，以應對俄烏戰爭、能源價格高企以及疫情后經濟的突發反彈所導致的通脹。疫情期間，零部件和原材料供應受到了限制。在俄羅斯切斷了大部分天然氣供應之后，歐洲受到的沖擊尤為嚴重。
能源價格有所回落，通脹如今也從2022年10月10.6%的峰值有所下降。然而，通脹已經影響到薪資以及服務行業價格，后者包括廣泛的門類，例如醫療、影票價格、餐廳菜價、酒店房價和美容院價格。受此影響，整體通脹率依然在2%-3%之間徘徊，高于歐洲央行2%的目標值，也就是業界認為的最有利于經濟的通脹水平。
在召開下一次會議之前，歐洲央行將拿到8月份的數據并對其進行解讀。歐洲央行官員稱，他們預計下半年通脹將圍繞當前水平波動，并在2025年底下滑至其目標值。
美聯儲官員正在權衡降息時間，其當前的峰值基準利率范圍為5.25%-5.5%。同時，美聯儲可能會通過即將于周三結束的會議來確定9月利率的走向。美國6月的年通脹率為3.0%。
加息會提升購物的信貸成本，減緩商品需求以及緩解價格壓力，從而以此來應對通脹。然而，更高的利率會抑制增長，而且歐洲最近的經濟數據毫無起色，同時，在經歷了一年多近乎零增長之后，歐洲也未能呈現令人信服的復蘇。
歐洲GDP今年前兩個季度的增幅均為0.3%，與此前近零增長或負增長相比已是連續5個季度有所好轉。然而最近，包括標準普爾全球采購經理人指數（S&P Global’s purchasing managers’ index）在內的未來經濟活動指標，認為歐洲經濟依然沒有什么起色。不過，其中一個助力是勞動力市場，失業率依然處于6.4%的低位。（財富中文網）
譯者：馮豐
審校：夏林
Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank.
Inflation in the 20 countries that use the euro ticked up to 2.6% in July, stubbornly above the European Central Bank’s target and complicating the ECB’s next decision on whether to cut interest rates and boost growth as the economy struggles to stage a convincing recovery after a long stretch of stagnation.
Inflation rose from 2.5% in June, according to official figures Wednesday from the EU statistics agency Eurostat. Services inflation, a figure closely watched by the ECB, remained elevated at 4.0%, down from 4.1%.
The uptick will intensify discussions around the ECB’s next move at its Sept. 12 meeting. The central bank for the eurozone countries made a first tentative interest rate cut in June, lowering its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point to 3.75%. The bank’s governing council then hit pause at the July meeting, with ECB President Christine Lagarde saying the bank would take its next decisions meeting by meeting based on incoming data about inflation and the economy’s performance.
The ECB along with other central banks including the U.S. Federal Reserve rapidly raised interest rates to combat a spike in inflation sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and higher energy prices as well as by the sudden rebound of the economy after the pandemic, which strained supplies of parts and raw materials. Europe in particular was hit by higher energy prices after Russia cut off most supplies of natural gas.
Energy prices have fallen and inflation is now down from its peak of 10.6% in October 2022. However, inflation has spread to wages and to services’ prices, a broad category including medical care, theater tickets, restaurant meals, hotel rooms and beauty salons’ prices. As a result, overall inflation has remained stuck between 2% and 3%, short of the ECB’s target of 2% which is considered best for the economy.
The ECB will have another inflation reading from August to digest by the time of its next meeting. Bank officials say they expect inflation to fluctuate around current levels for the rest of the year and to decline to reach their goal by the end of 2025.
Officials at the U.S. Federal Reserve are weighing the timing of a first cut from the current peak of 5.25%-5.5% benchmark range and may use their meeting ending Wednesday to set up a September rate move. U.S. annual inflation was 3.0% in June.
Rate hikes combat inflation by raising the cost of credit for buying things, cooling demand for goods and taking the pressure off prices. But higher rates can hurt growth, and recent economic data have been downbeat as Europe struggles to show a convincing recovery after more than a year of near-zero growth figures.
Gross domestic product rose 0.3% in each of the first two quarters of this year, an improvement on five straight quarters of readings at near-zero or below. But recent indicators of economic activity going forward, such as S&P Global’s purchasing managers’ index, suggest that the economy is still barely growing. One source of strength is the labor market; unemployment remains low at 6.4%.
