,亚洲欧美日韩国产成人精品影院,亚洲国产欧美日韩精品一区二区三区,久久亚洲国产成人影院,久久国产成人亚洲精品影院老金,九九精品成人免费国产片,国产精品成人综合网,国产成人一区二区三区,国产成...

首頁 500強 活動 榜單 商業 科技 領導力 專題 品牌中心
雜志訂閱

驚人預測:標普500指數10年之內或突破15000點

JASON MA
2024-06-26

湯姆·李2023年的預測是最準確的。

文本設置
小號
默認
大號
Plus(0條)

Fundstrat Global Advisors聯合創始人湯姆·李2017年照片。圖片來源:CINDY ORD—GETTY IMAGES FOR YAHOO

去年,有少部分人預測股市將大漲,Fundstrat Global Advisors聯合創始人湯姆·李便是其中之一。當時,其大部分同僚認為,經濟衰退預期大行其道,股市將大跌。

不過,他和美國經濟證明,這些悲觀論者是錯誤的。事實上,在彭博社(Bloomberg)調查的預測者當中,湯姆2023年的預測是最準確的。

今年,他再次做出預測,并得到了驗證。6月初,他稱標普500指數將在月底突破5500點大關。6月21日收盤時,標普500指數已經達到5464.62點。

如今,他進行了時間跨度更大的預測,令行業震驚:湯姆稱,在2034年之前,標普500指數或將突破1.5萬點大關,相當于超過170%的增幅。

在彭博社6月18日錄制的最新一期《Odd Lots》播客節目中,他一開始便解釋了自己的預測是有據可循的,即歷史以及各類資產數據。他稱,債券市場比股市更聰明:“這也是為什么人們說,股市是中等生的天堂。”

他還認為,投資者無法與美聯儲(Federal Reserve)抗衡,并將更多地關注推動增長的經濟主題,例如:千禧一代如何重塑經濟;全球勞動力短缺將提振人工智能和科技行業;以及能源安全和網絡安全。湯姆稱,通過選擇每個主題的最優股,他自2019年以來年年都跑贏了大盤。

他還表示,華爾街往往會低估新科技的影響力,而最先采用這些科技的人群通常都是十幾和二十幾歲的年輕人,同時,大多數頂級投資專業人士都已40或50多歲。他還提到,手機在一開始并未受到富人重視,而是被當作玩具。人工智能當前的處境也是十分類似。

“人工智能的采用率異常之高,不過,考慮到勞動力短缺,用例十分重要,”湯姆說,“因此在我看來,我們很有可能低估了所有這些公司今后賺錢的能力。”

隨著勞動力市場繼續保持供不應求的狀態,人工智能將變得愈發重要。他預計,到2034年,全球勞動力短缺數量將達到約4000萬,相當于約3萬億美元的薪資支出。他解釋說,考慮到大多數自動化都由半導體這類硬件支撐,這意味著這類芯片供應商或將拿到2萬億美元的收入。

湯姆表示,科技股最終將占到全球股市權重的40-50%,而當前為20%。

“在這個回歸常態的世界中,如果這是一個與人口結構掛鉤的正常標普周期,標普有望在10年之內達到1.5萬點,稍后我可以用圖表說明,”他說,“從更長的時間框架來看,我覺得市場很有可能正在朝這個方向邁進。”

股市已經嚴重向科技和人工智能股傾斜。今年,僅英偉達(Nvidia)一家公司便貢獻了標普500超過三分之一的市值增量。與此同時,華爾街正努力迎合市場無節制的漲勢,越來越多的分析師調高了其年終目標。

上述漲勢和市場集中度讓人們開始擔心,人工智能熱是其泡沫即將破滅的信號。然而,湯姆對這些顧慮毫不在意,并指出了人工智能與此前互聯網等產業泡沫生滅之間的關鍵區別。

他表示,英偉達的競爭優勢要比互聯網熱初期的思科(Cisco)深厚得多。他還指出,與網絡泡沫不同的是,如今人工智能領域并沒有出現過度炒作的IPO行為。

湯姆并非唯一一位做出大膽預測的華爾街看漲人士。愛德華·雅德尼一直對下一個“狂飆20年代”超級周期深信不疑,而且稱標普500指數明年將躍升至6000點。

他稱,到2034年,標普500指數可能會達到8000點,雖不及湯姆預測的高,但漲幅依然高達46%,著實不錯。(財富中文網)

譯者:馮豐

審校:夏林

去年,有少部分人預測股市將大漲,Fundstrat Global Advisors聯合創始人湯姆·李便是其中之一。當時,其大部分同僚認為,經濟衰退預期大行其道,股市將大跌。

不過,他和美國經濟證明,這些悲觀論者是錯誤的。事實上,在彭博社(Bloomberg)調查的預測者當中,湯姆2023年的預測是最準確的。

今年,他再次做出預測,并得到了驗證。6月初,他稱標普500指數將在月底突破5500點大關。6月21日收盤時,標普500指數已經達到5464.62點。

如今,他進行了時間跨度更大的預測,令行業震驚:湯姆稱,在2034年之前,標普500指數或將突破1.5萬點大關,相當于超過170%的增幅。

在彭博社6月18日錄制的最新一期《Odd Lots》播客節目中,他一開始便解釋了自己的預測是有據可循的,即歷史以及各類資產數據。他稱,債券市場比股市更聰明:“這也是為什么人們說,股市是中等生的天堂。”

他還認為,投資者無法與美聯儲(Federal Reserve)抗衡,并將更多地關注推動增長的經濟主題,例如:千禧一代如何重塑經濟;全球勞動力短缺將提振人工智能和科技行業;以及能源安全和網絡安全。湯姆稱,通過選擇每個主題的最優股,他自2019年以來年年都跑贏了大盤。

他還表示,華爾街往往會低估新科技的影響力,而最先采用這些科技的人群通常都是十幾和二十幾歲的年輕人,同時,大多數頂級投資專業人士都已40或50多歲。他還提到,手機在一開始并未受到富人重視,而是被當作玩具。人工智能當前的處境也是十分類似。

“人工智能的采用率異常之高,不過,考慮到勞動力短缺,用例十分重要,”湯姆說,“因此在我看來,我們很有可能低估了所有這些公司今后賺錢的能力。”

隨著勞動力市場繼續保持供不應求的狀態,人工智能將變得愈發重要。他預計,到2034年,全球勞動力短缺數量將達到約4000萬,相當于約3萬億美元的薪資支出。他解釋說,考慮到大多數自動化都由半導體這類硬件支撐,這意味著這類芯片供應商或將拿到2萬億美元的收入。

湯姆表示,科技股最終將占到全球股市權重的40-50%,而當前為20%。

“在這個回歸常態的世界中,如果這是一個與人口結構掛鉤的正常標普周期,標普有望在10年之內達到1.5萬點,稍后我可以用圖表說明,”他說,“從更長的時間框架來看,我覺得市場很有可能正在朝這個方向邁進。”

股市已經嚴重向科技和人工智能股傾斜。今年,僅英偉達(Nvidia)一家公司便貢獻了標普500超過三分之一的市值增量。與此同時,華爾街正努力迎合市場無節制的漲勢,越來越多的分析師調高了其年終目標。

上述漲勢和市場集中度讓人們開始擔心,人工智能熱是其泡沫即將破滅的信號。然而,湯姆對這些顧慮毫不在意,并指出了人工智能與此前互聯網等產業泡沫生滅之間的關鍵區別。

他表示,英偉達的競爭優勢要比互聯網熱初期的思科(Cisco)深厚得多。他還指出,與網絡泡沫不同的是,如今人工智能領域并沒有出現過度炒作的IPO行為。

湯姆并非唯一一位做出大膽預測的華爾街看漲人士。愛德華·雅德尼一直對下一個“狂飆20年代”超級周期深信不疑,而且稱標普500指數明年將躍升至6000點。

他稱,到2034年,標普500指數可能會達到8000點,雖不及湯姆預測的高,但漲幅依然高達46%,著實不錯。(財富中文網)

譯者:馮豐

審校:夏林

Fundstrat Global Advisors cofounder Tom Lee was among the few voices on Wall Street last year who predicted a stock market surge while most of his peers saw a slump amid widespread expectations for a recession.

But he—and the U.S. economy—proved the doomsayers wrong. In fact, among the forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg, Lee’s call in 2023 turned out to be the most accurate.

And this year, he’s still calling his shots and nailing them. In early June, he said the S&P 500 would hit 5,500 by the end of the month. As of Friday’s close, it was at 5,464.62.

Now, he’s got a longer-term forecast, and it’s a whopper: by the end of this decade, Lee said the S&P 500 could hit 15,000, representing upside of more than 170%.

On a recent episode of Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast, which was recorded on Tuesday, he began by explaining his evidence-based approach to forecasting, which looks across history and across assets. He said the bond market is smarter than the stock market: “That’s why they say equities are the land of C students.”

He also believes investors can’t fight the Federal Reserve and focuses more on themes that will drive growth, such as how millennials are reshaping the economy, the global labor shortage that will boost AI and tech stocks, as well as energy security and cybersecurity. By picking the strongest stocks within each theme, he has outperformed the market every year since 2019, Lee said.

Wall Street typically underestimates the impact of new technologies, which are usually adopted first by younger people in their teens and 20s while most top investment professionals are in their 40s and 50s, he added, noting that cell phones were initially dismissed as toys for the rich. Something similar is happening with AI.

“The adoption rate of AI is staggering, but the use case is important because there’s a labor shortage,” Lee said. “So to me, I think it’s very likely we’re underestimating how much revenue all these companies will make.”

And as the demand for workers continues to outstrip supply, AI will become more critical. By end of decade, he estimated the global labor shortage will be equivalent to 40 million workers, or about $3 trillion worth of wages. Considering that most of automation is from hardware like semiconductors, that means whoever is supplying the chips might have $2 trillion in revenue, he explained.

Eventually, technology will represent 40%-50% of global stock market weighting, up from about 20% today, Lee said.

“In a normalized world, if this is a normal S&P cycle following demographics, I could provide a chart later, S&P should be potentially 15,000 by the end of the decade,” he said. “As you move into longer timeframes, that’s probably where I think we’re moving towards.”

The stock market is already heavily concentrated on tech and AI stocks, with Nvidia alone accounting for more than a third of the S&P 500’s gains this year. Meanwhile, Wall Street is scrambling to keep up with the market’s relentless rally, with more analysts raising their year-end targets.

Such bullishness and market concentration have raised concerns that the AI hype is a sign of a bubble about to pop. But Lee downplayed those worries, pointing to key differences between earlier bubbles like the dot-com boom and bust.

He noted that Nvidia has a much steeper competitive advantage than Cisco did during the early stages of the internet boom. And unlike the dot-com bubble, there is a lack of overly hyped IPOs today, he added.

Lee isn’t the only Wall Street bull making bold predictions. Ed Yardeni has been pounding the table about another “Roaring 20s” super-cycle and has said the S&P 500 would jump to 6,000 by next year.

And by the end of the decade, he said the stock index could reach 8,000—not as high as Lee’s estimate but still good enough for a 46% jump.

0條Plus
精彩評論
評論

撰寫或查看更多評論

請打開財富Plus APP

前往打開