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比亞迪的歐洲擴(kuò)張之旅能否獲得成功?

RYAN HOGG
2024-02-03

開始向歐洲發(fā)送海量新車的比亞迪,成為當(dāng)?shù)厥袌?chǎng)一股無法忽視的力量。

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圖片來源:STR/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES

如果你在幾年前問歐洲或美國當(dāng)?shù)厝耸欠窳私獗葋喌线@個(gè)品牌,那么只有汽車鐵桿粉絲或精明的沃倫·巴菲特資產(chǎn)組合追隨者才能信心滿滿地給予你肯定的答案。

在掀起了與埃隆·馬斯克的價(jià)格戰(zhàn)并奪得中國汽車市場(chǎng)頭把交易之后,這一現(xiàn)狀得到了改觀。在其競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手對(duì)此感到“十分震驚”之際,比亞迪已經(jīng)成長為一股令人無法忽視的力量。

然而,比亞迪也在應(yīng)對(duì)自身股價(jià)低迷的問題,而且在這場(chǎng)于歐洲本土打響的戰(zhàn)役中,歐洲汽車制造商有理由為自身的些許優(yōu)勢(shì)感到樂觀。

比亞迪進(jìn)軍歐洲市場(chǎng)

那些希望維持其市場(chǎng)主導(dǎo)地位同時(shí)向電動(dòng)汽車轉(zhuǎn)型的汽車制造商,明顯感受到了比亞迪的壓力。

借助其超低的價(jià)格,比亞迪已經(jīng)占領(lǐng)了中國市場(chǎng),令馬斯克通過上海超級(jí)工廠和價(jià)格戰(zhàn)搶占中國市場(chǎng)份額的手段無功而返。

受益于其對(duì)整個(gè)電動(dòng)汽車電池系統(tǒng)的控制,這家“特斯拉殺手”才得以將價(jià)格降到如此之低——其入門級(jí)車型“海鷗”售價(jià)為1.1萬美元。這一優(yōu)勢(shì)使得比亞迪車型的價(jià)格能夠比競(jìng)品低40%。

這一點(diǎn)對(duì)于歐洲渴望電動(dòng)汽車的客戶來說至關(guān)重要。彭博行業(yè)研究(Bloomberg Intelligence)最近的調(diào)查顯示,83%的歐洲人都覺得電動(dòng)汽車的價(jià)格“太高了”。

經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人智庫(Economist Intelligence Unit)電動(dòng)汽車行業(yè)分析師尼西塔·阿加瓦爾對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志說:“比亞迪一直都更加關(guān)注價(jià)格較為實(shí)惠的大眾市場(chǎng),有鑒于居高不下的利率和補(bǔ)貼削減,平價(jià)車型對(duì)于歐洲市場(chǎng)的買家來說很有吸引力?!?/p>

比亞迪當(dāng)前在歐洲的市場(chǎng)份額并不大。為了在這片大陸站穩(wěn)腳跟,公司正不斷地將自身的海量資源傾注于此。

該集團(tuán)計(jì)劃在匈牙利建廠,同時(shí)在1月早些時(shí)候,公司開始通過特種貨船,向歐洲發(fā)送其電動(dòng)汽車。

5月,安聯(lián)貿(mào)易(Allianz Trade)的一份報(bào)告給出了這家中國汽車制造商可能對(duì)歐洲汽車行業(yè)帶來的潛在損失。

該研究認(rèn)為,中國對(duì)歐洲汽車行業(yè)的威脅最大,在2030年之前會(huì)讓該行業(yè)的年利潤下滑70億歐元(約合77億美元)。

比亞迪并未直接回復(fù)《財(cái)富》的置評(píng)請(qǐng)求。

定價(jià)風(fēng)波

然而,要了解比亞迪光鮮背后的心酸,看看其股價(jià)便足矣。

盡管比亞迪的銷售額在不斷增長,但比亞迪過去12個(gè)月的市值跌幅超過了16%。

作為比亞迪最大的投資者,巴菲特的伯克希爾·哈撒韋公司(Berkshire Hathaway)多年來一直在減持該公司的股份。

股價(jià)下跌的原因可能是多方面的,其中一個(gè)就是歐洲監(jiān)管方在保護(hù)本土生產(chǎn)商方面似乎有著強(qiáng)烈的意愿,哪怕犧牲其消費(fèi)者利益以及可能的環(huán)保目標(biāo)也在所不惜。

歐盟監(jiān)管方發(fā)起了一項(xiàng)調(diào)查,對(duì)象是中國政府對(duì)其汽車制造商的補(bǔ)貼,以及這些補(bǔ)貼是如何由歐洲車主來買單。

9月,歐盟委員會(huì)(European Commission)主席馮德萊恩稱,由于獲得了政府的補(bǔ)貼,中國電動(dòng)汽車“正在扭曲我們的市場(chǎng)”。

西方國家呼吁采取反制舉措的呼聲也是越來越高。

在特斯拉1月24日的電話會(huì)議上,馬斯克稱,阻止中國電動(dòng)汽車制造商摧毀其競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的機(jī)制僅剩下貿(mào)易壁壘了。

更高的進(jìn)口關(guān)稅或罰款將遏制比亞迪的價(jià)格優(yōu)勢(shì),說不定此舉便足以減少比亞迪相對(duì)于歐洲競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的吸引力。

盡管像比亞迪這類中國電動(dòng)汽車制造商通過在歐洲建廠來規(guī)避關(guān)稅對(duì)其價(jià)格的潛在影響,但此舉可能會(huì)帶來新的問題。

市場(chǎng)調(diào)研機(jī)構(gòu)JATO Dynamics的全球分析師費(fèi)利佩·穆尼奧斯稱,比亞迪通過海外生產(chǎn)以規(guī)避進(jìn)口關(guān)稅的所有舉措,都可能會(huì)被歐洲更高的勞動(dòng)力成本所抵消。

路透社(Reuters)對(duì)30家汽車集團(tuán)的招聘廣告進(jìn)行了分析,它發(fā)現(xiàn)中國的時(shí)薪范圍為1.93美元至4.27美元。可以預(yù)見的是,一旦比亞迪在歐洲建廠之后,歐洲員工的薪資成本要比中國高得多。

穆尼奧斯表示:“比亞迪在中國之外生產(chǎn)汽車是遲早的事,但此舉可能會(huì)降低其競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)。”

品牌忠誠度

就像比亞迪能夠讓自己成為中國汽車市場(chǎng)的龍頭品牌一樣,歐洲汽車制造商也一直在利用客戶的品牌忠誠度,因?yàn)檫@些品牌陪伴了客戶數(shù)代人的時(shí)光。

如果特斯拉的策略還靠得住的話,有鑒于電動(dòng)汽車粉絲已經(jīng)都購買了特斯拉,那么新目標(biāo)群體則有可能是那些由燃油車大品牌陪著長大的普通客戶。

特斯拉首席財(cái)務(wù)官瓦伊巴夫·塔尼婭在10月份的投資者電話會(huì)議中表示:“當(dāng)我們審視整個(gè)購車格局時(shí),我們正在嘗試打動(dòng)新一代的電動(dòng)汽車車主?!?/p>

盡管像大眾、雷諾和梅賽德斯奔馳這類潛在的歐洲汽車制造商將不得不為其電動(dòng)汽車建立全新的信任關(guān)系,但相對(duì)于比亞迪這樣的市場(chǎng)新人,這些品牌在一開始就擁有異常強(qiáng)大的本土優(yōu)勢(shì)。

由彭博行業(yè)研究開展、Motor Finance發(fā)布的一份9月調(diào)查顯示,歐洲60%的車主有可能會(huì)繼續(xù)購買當(dāng)前使用的汽車品牌,僅有17%的車主會(huì)更換品牌。

奧維咨詢公司(Oliver Wyman)汽車與工業(yè)產(chǎn)品部負(fù)責(zé)人法比安·勃蘭特表示:“我堅(jiān)信,歐洲品牌所擁有的信譽(yù)和信任將有助于其抵御新參與者,并維持其銷量?!?/p>

“當(dāng)?shù)氐膶?shí)體店、信賴和經(jīng)銷商亦十分重要,而這一切并非朝夕之功。”

與此同時(shí),如果中國汽車制造商初期產(chǎn)品的質(zhì)量無法達(dá)到歐洲車主的標(biāo)準(zhǔn),那么它們的聲譽(yù)將受到嚴(yán)重沖擊。

愛爾蘭汽車技術(shù)獨(dú)角獸Cubic Telecom的首席運(yùn)營官大衛(wèi)·凱利對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志說:“大多數(shù)人對(duì)于購買中國產(chǎn)品持有十分謹(jǐn)慎的態(tài)度。”

互連問題

就算比亞迪可以繞開令人生畏的歐洲法規(guī)和頑固的消費(fèi)者情緒,但其平價(jià)電動(dòng)汽車依然難以適應(yīng)歐洲復(fù)雜的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。

Cubic Telecom的凱利表示,有鑒于歐洲跨國工作存在的數(shù)字互連問題,一旦比亞迪嘗試在歐洲內(nèi)部拓展業(yè)務(wù),真正的難題便會(huì)接踵而至。

凱利稱,就像智能手機(jī)一樣,電動(dòng)汽車車主已經(jīng)習(xí)慣了在駕車時(shí)與外界保持一定程度的互連,并期待更便宜的車型也能搭載該功能。

然而,這一點(diǎn)在橫跨不同司法轄區(qū)和語言的歐洲來說很難做到。事實(shí)上,歐洲車主在充電時(shí)也會(huì)遇到問題。

凱利表示:“比亞迪面對(duì)的是有著60個(gè)國家的廣闊歐洲大陸?!?/p>

每個(gè)國家都有“不同的手機(jī)卡、不同的移動(dòng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)運(yùn)營商”,這一點(diǎn)會(huì)讓電動(dòng)汽車的推廣比中國或美國難得多,因?yàn)檫@兩個(gè)國家的網(wǎng)絡(luò)連接僅由有限幾家運(yùn)營商經(jīng)營。

凱利在談到比亞迪時(shí)表示:“比亞迪在擴(kuò)張時(shí)會(huì)遇到真正的挑戰(zhàn)?!彼J(rèn)為特斯拉已經(jīng)遇到了這個(gè)問題,其逐國擴(kuò)張戰(zhàn)略最近已經(jīng)遇到了瓶頸。

常駐上海的Intralink汽車業(yè)務(wù)負(fù)責(zé)人丹尼爾·科拉爾認(rèn)為,比亞迪最終在歐洲的成敗取決于兩個(gè)問題。

“第一個(gè)問題:比亞迪是否能夠說服消費(fèi)者克服購買中國汽車品牌的心理障礙?”

“第二個(gè)問題:比亞迪為各類電動(dòng)汽車準(zhǔn)買家提供的價(jià)值是否能夠超越其競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手?”

如果比亞迪能做到這兩點(diǎn),那么歐洲車主可能并不會(huì)介意讓一家新汽車品牌在歐洲大行其道。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:馮豐

審校:夏林

如果你在幾年前問歐洲或美國當(dāng)?shù)厝耸欠窳私獗葋喌线@個(gè)品牌,那么只有汽車鐵桿粉絲或精明的沃倫·巴菲特資產(chǎn)組合追隨者才能信心滿滿地給予你肯定的答案。

在掀起了與埃隆·馬斯克的價(jià)格戰(zhàn)并奪得中國汽車市場(chǎng)頭把交易之后,這一現(xiàn)狀得到了改觀。在其競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手對(duì)此感到“十分震驚”之際,比亞迪已經(jīng)成長為一股令人無法忽視的力量。

然而,比亞迪也在應(yīng)對(duì)自身股價(jià)低迷的問題,而且在這場(chǎng)于歐洲本土打響的戰(zhàn)役中,歐洲汽車制造商有理由為自身的些許優(yōu)勢(shì)感到樂觀。

比亞迪進(jìn)軍歐洲市場(chǎng)

那些希望維持其市場(chǎng)主導(dǎo)地位同時(shí)向電動(dòng)汽車轉(zhuǎn)型的汽車制造商,明顯感受到了比亞迪的壓力。

借助其超低的價(jià)格,比亞迪已經(jīng)占領(lǐng)了中國市場(chǎng),令馬斯克通過上海超級(jí)工廠和價(jià)格戰(zhàn)搶占中國市場(chǎng)份額的手段無功而返。

受益于其對(duì)整個(gè)電動(dòng)汽車電池系統(tǒng)的控制,這家“特斯拉殺手”才得以將價(jià)格降到如此之低——其入門級(jí)車型“海鷗”售價(jià)為1.1萬美元。這一優(yōu)勢(shì)使得比亞迪車型的價(jià)格能夠比競(jìng)品低40%。

這一點(diǎn)對(duì)于歐洲渴望電動(dòng)汽車的客戶來說至關(guān)重要。彭博行業(yè)研究(Bloomberg Intelligence)最近的調(diào)查顯示,83%的歐洲人都覺得電動(dòng)汽車的價(jià)格“太高了”。

經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人智庫(Economist Intelligence Unit)電動(dòng)汽車行業(yè)分析師尼西塔·阿加瓦爾對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志說:“比亞迪一直都更加關(guān)注價(jià)格較為實(shí)惠的大眾市場(chǎng),有鑒于居高不下的利率和補(bǔ)貼削減,平價(jià)車型對(duì)于歐洲市場(chǎng)的買家來說很有吸引力。”

比亞迪當(dāng)前在歐洲的市場(chǎng)份額并不大。為了在這片大陸站穩(wěn)腳跟,公司正不斷地將自身的海量資源傾注于此。

該集團(tuán)計(jì)劃在匈牙利建廠,同時(shí)在1月早些時(shí)候,公司開始通過特種貨船,向歐洲發(fā)送其電動(dòng)汽車。

5月,安聯(lián)貿(mào)易(Allianz Trade)的一份報(bào)告給出了這家中國汽車制造商可能對(duì)歐洲汽車行業(yè)帶來的潛在損失。

該研究認(rèn)為,中國對(duì)歐洲汽車行業(yè)的威脅最大,在2030年之前會(huì)讓該行業(yè)的年利潤下滑70億歐元(約合77億美元)。

比亞迪并未直接回復(fù)《財(cái)富》的置評(píng)請(qǐng)求。

定價(jià)風(fēng)波

然而,要了解比亞迪光鮮背后的心酸,看看其股價(jià)便足矣。

盡管比亞迪的銷售額在不斷增長,但比亞迪過去12個(gè)月的市值跌幅超過了16%。

作為比亞迪最大的投資者,巴菲特的伯克希爾·哈撒韋公司(Berkshire Hathaway)多年來一直在減持該公司的股份。

股價(jià)下跌的原因可能是多方面的,其中一個(gè)就是歐洲監(jiān)管方在保護(hù)本土生產(chǎn)商方面似乎有著強(qiáng)烈的意愿,哪怕犧牲其消費(fèi)者利益以及可能的環(huán)保目標(biāo)也在所不惜。

歐盟監(jiān)管方發(fā)起了一項(xiàng)調(diào)查,對(duì)象是中國政府對(duì)其汽車制造商的補(bǔ)貼,以及這些補(bǔ)貼是如何由歐洲車主來買單。

9月,歐盟委員會(huì)(European Commission)主席馮德萊恩稱,由于獲得了政府的補(bǔ)貼,中國電動(dòng)汽車“正在扭曲我們的市場(chǎng)”。

西方國家呼吁采取反制舉措的呼聲也是越來越高。

在特斯拉1月24日的電話會(huì)議上,馬斯克稱,阻止中國電動(dòng)汽車制造商摧毀其競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的機(jī)制僅剩下貿(mào)易壁壘了。

更高的進(jìn)口關(guān)稅或罰款將遏制比亞迪的價(jià)格優(yōu)勢(shì),說不定此舉便足以減少比亞迪相對(duì)于歐洲競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的吸引力。

盡管像比亞迪這類中國電動(dòng)汽車制造商通過在歐洲建廠來規(guī)避關(guān)稅對(duì)其價(jià)格的潛在影響,但此舉可能會(huì)帶來新的問題。

市場(chǎng)調(diào)研機(jī)構(gòu)JATO Dynamics的全球分析師費(fèi)利佩·穆尼奧斯稱,比亞迪通過海外生產(chǎn)以規(guī)避進(jìn)口關(guān)稅的所有舉措,都可能會(huì)被歐洲更高的勞動(dòng)力成本所抵消。

路透社(Reuters)對(duì)30家汽車集團(tuán)的招聘廣告進(jìn)行了分析,它發(fā)現(xiàn)中國的時(shí)薪范圍為1.93美元至4.27美元。可以預(yù)見的是,一旦比亞迪在歐洲建廠之后,歐洲員工的薪資成本要比中國高得多。

穆尼奧斯表示:“比亞迪在中國之外生產(chǎn)汽車是遲早的事,但此舉可能會(huì)降低其競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)?!?/p>

品牌忠誠度

就像比亞迪能夠讓自己成為中國汽車市場(chǎng)的龍頭品牌一樣,歐洲汽車制造商也一直在利用客戶的品牌忠誠度,因?yàn)檫@些品牌陪伴了客戶數(shù)代人的時(shí)光。

如果特斯拉的策略還靠得住的話,有鑒于電動(dòng)汽車粉絲已經(jīng)都購買了特斯拉,那么新目標(biāo)群體則有可能是那些由燃油車大品牌陪著長大的普通客戶。

特斯拉首席財(cái)務(wù)官瓦伊巴夫·塔尼婭在10月份的投資者電話會(huì)議中表示:“當(dāng)我們審視整個(gè)購車格局時(shí),我們正在嘗試打動(dòng)新一代的電動(dòng)汽車車主?!?/p>

盡管像大眾、雷諾和梅賽德斯奔馳這類潛在的歐洲汽車制造商將不得不為其電動(dòng)汽車建立全新的信任關(guān)系,但相對(duì)于比亞迪這樣的市場(chǎng)新人,這些品牌在一開始就擁有異常強(qiáng)大的本土優(yōu)勢(shì)。

由彭博行業(yè)研究開展、Motor Finance發(fā)布的一份9月調(diào)查顯示,歐洲60%的車主有可能會(huì)繼續(xù)購買當(dāng)前使用的汽車品牌,僅有17%的車主會(huì)更換品牌。

奧維咨詢公司(Oliver Wyman)汽車與工業(yè)產(chǎn)品部負(fù)責(zé)人法比安·勃蘭特表示:“我堅(jiān)信,歐洲品牌所擁有的信譽(yù)和信任將有助于其抵御新參與者,并維持其銷量?!?/p>

“當(dāng)?shù)氐膶?shí)體店、信賴和經(jīng)銷商亦十分重要,而這一切并非朝夕之功?!?/p>

與此同時(shí),如果中國汽車制造商初期產(chǎn)品的質(zhì)量無法達(dá)到歐洲車主的標(biāo)準(zhǔn),那么它們的聲譽(yù)將受到嚴(yán)重沖擊。

愛爾蘭汽車技術(shù)獨(dú)角獸Cubic Telecom的首席運(yùn)營官大衛(wèi)·凱利對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志說:“大多數(shù)人對(duì)于購買中國產(chǎn)品持有十分謹(jǐn)慎的態(tài)度?!?/p>

互連問題

就算比亞迪可以繞開令人生畏的歐洲法規(guī)和頑固的消費(fèi)者情緒,但其平價(jià)電動(dòng)汽車依然難以適應(yīng)歐洲復(fù)雜的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施。

Cubic Telecom的凱利表示,有鑒于歐洲跨國工作存在的數(shù)字互連問題,一旦比亞迪嘗試在歐洲內(nèi)部拓展業(yè)務(wù),真正的難題便會(huì)接踵而至。

凱利稱,就像智能手機(jī)一樣,電動(dòng)汽車車主已經(jīng)習(xí)慣了在駕車時(shí)與外界保持一定程度的互連,并期待更便宜的車型也能搭載該功能。

然而,這一點(diǎn)在橫跨不同司法轄區(qū)和語言的歐洲來說很難做到。事實(shí)上,歐洲車主在充電時(shí)也會(huì)遇到問題。

凱利表示:“比亞迪面對(duì)的是有著60個(gè)國家的廣闊歐洲大陸?!?/p>

每個(gè)國家都有“不同的手機(jī)卡、不同的移動(dòng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)運(yùn)營商”,這一點(diǎn)會(huì)讓電動(dòng)汽車的推廣比中國或美國難得多,因?yàn)檫@兩個(gè)國家的網(wǎng)絡(luò)連接僅由有限幾家運(yùn)營商經(jīng)營。

凱利在談到比亞迪時(shí)表示:“比亞迪在擴(kuò)張時(shí)會(huì)遇到真正的挑戰(zhàn)?!彼J(rèn)為特斯拉已經(jīng)遇到了這個(gè)問題,其逐國擴(kuò)張戰(zhàn)略最近已經(jīng)遇到了瓶頸。

常駐上海的Intralink汽車業(yè)務(wù)負(fù)責(zé)人丹尼爾·科拉爾認(rèn)為,比亞迪最終在歐洲的成敗取決于兩個(gè)問題。

“第一個(gè)問題:比亞迪是否能夠說服消費(fèi)者克服購買中國汽車品牌的心理障礙?”

“第二個(gè)問題:比亞迪為各類電動(dòng)汽車準(zhǔn)買家提供的價(jià)值是否能夠超越其競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手?”

如果比亞迪能做到這兩點(diǎn),那么歐洲車主可能并不會(huì)介意讓一家新汽車品牌在歐洲大行其道。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:馮豐

審校:夏林

If you asked the typical European or American about BYD a couple of years ago, only the biggest petrol-head or an astute follower of Warren Buffett’s portfolio could have given you a confident answer on what the company does.

It’s taken a brutal price war with Elon Musk and an ascension to the top of the Chinese car pyramid to change that. Now that it’s left competitors in a “state of shock,” BYD has become hard to ignore.

However, as BYD fights a declining share price, Europe’s automakers have a few reasons to be optimistic that they will fare better in a battle on home soil.

BYD’s march into Europe

Carmakers hoping to maintain their market dominance while shifting to EVs have obvious cause for concern from BYD.

The carmaker has conquered the Chinese market thanks to its ultra-low prices, fending off an attempt by Musk to encroach on market share through a massive Shanghai production plant and price cuts.

The “Tesla-killer”—with its entry-level Seagull model priced at $11,000—has been able to keep prices so low thanks to its control of its entire EV battery system. This has allowed it to keep prices about 40% below competitors.

That’s a big deal for Europe’s EV-hungry customers. A recent survey by Bloomberg Intelligence found 83% of Europeans saw EV prices as “too high.”

“BYD has been more focused on the affordable mass market, which could be attractive for buyers in the European market amid high interest rates and subsidy cuts,” Nishita Aggarwal, an automotive industry analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, told Fortune.

Increasingly BYD, which currently has a small presence in Europe, is putting its vast resources into placing itself on the continent.

The group plans to build a production factory in Hungary, while earlier in January it started using purpose-built cargo ships to send its EVs to Europe.

In May, an Allianz Trade report put a figure on the Chinese automaker’s potential damage.

The study suggested China posed the greatest risk to Europe’s automotive sector and could cost them €7 billion ($7.7 billion) in annual profits by 2030.

BYD didn’t immediately respond to Fortune’s request for comment.

Pricing controversy

However, you only need to look as far as BYD’s share price to find weak spots in the group’s tough exterior.

Despite increasing deliveries, BYD has fallen more than 16% in value over the last 12 months.

Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, the group’s largest investor, has been shedding its stake in the company for several years.

There might be a few reasons for the fall, one being how much European regulators appear willing to defend native automakers at the expense of the price paid by the consumer, and possibly environmental goals.

EU regulators have launched an investigation into Chinese subsidies for its automakers, and how those are filtering through to the price paid by European drivers.

In September, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that Chinese EVs were “distorting our market” thanks to long-running state subsidies.

Calls for a response from the West are getting louder too.

On Tesla’s earnings call Wednesday, Musk said trade barriers were the only thing stopping Chinese EV makers from demolishing its competitors.

Higher import tariffs or fines would blunt BYD’s pricing strength, perhaps enough to reduce its appeal against European competitors.

While Chinese EV makers like BYD are building production facilities in Europe to head off the potential impact of tariffs on its prices, that’s likely to bring fresh obstacles.

Felipe Munoz, a global analyst at JATO Dynamics, says that any moves BYD makes to reduce import charges by offshoring production could be offset by higher labor costs on the continent.

A Reuters analysis of job adverts for 30 automotive groups found hourly salaries in China ranged from $1.93 to $4.27. BYD can expect to pay its European workers significantly more when it sets up shop on the continent.

“Sooner or later, BYD will need to produce vehicles outside of China. By doing so, it risks reducing its competitive advantage,” Munoz said.

Brand loyalty

Just as BYD has been able to propel itself to the top of the pile in its native China, European carmakers have consistently been able to trade on the brand loyalty of customers who have grown up with their vehicles for generations.

If Tesla’s strategy is anything to go by, the new target demographic—now that EV nerds have bought their cars—is likely to be those everyday customers who have grown up with gas-powered household names.

“When you look at car buying in general, we’re trying get to the next set of EV adopters,” Tesla’s chief financial officer Vaibhav Taneja said during an investor call in October.

While incumbent European carmakers like Volkswagen, Renault, and Mercedes-Benz will have to build new trust for their EVs, they’re likely to start on a much stronger footing than new-to-market BYD.

A September study by Bloomberg Intelligence, reported by Motor Finance, found three in five drivers in Europe were likely to stick with their current brands, while only 17% were expected to switch.

Fabian Brandt, the head of automotive and industrial goods at management consultancy Oliver Wyman said: “I do believe that the credibility and trust that European brands enjoy will help them defend their inventory story against new entrants.

“It’s also very much about local presence and local trusts and dealerships, and all that is relatively hard to build.”

Chinese automakers, meanwhile, face massive reputational damage if the quality of their early offerings doesn’t match up to European drivers’ standards.

“There’s a wariness about buying Chinese products generally,” David Kelly, chief corporate officer of Irish automotive tech unicorn Cubic Telecom, told Fortune.

Connectivity

If BYD can overcome the daunting obstacles of European regulation and stubborn consumer sentiment, it still faces difficulties adapting its affordable cars to the continent’s complicated infrastructure.

Cubic Telecom’s Kelly says BYD’s real struggles will come when it tries to branch out from within Europe, given the digital connectivity issues that come with working across several countries.

Kelly says just like with smartphones, EV drivers have become used to a certain level of connectivity in their cars, and expect it in the cheaper models.

But that’s difficult in a region spanning several different jurisdictions and languages. It could also prove to be an obstacle when a driver wants to charge their car.

“You could be talking in the wider European footprint of 60 different countries,” Kelly says.

Each country has “different sims, different mobile network carriers,” massively complicating rollout compared to China or America, where connectivity is streamlined by a limited number of providers.

“There’s going to be a real challenge for them in scaling,” Kelly said of BYD. He thinks it has already happened with Tesla, where its country-by-country expansion has recently plateaued.

Ultimately, Daniel Kollar, the Shanghai-based head of automotive practice at Intralink, thinks BYD’s eventual success or failure in Europe comes down to two questions.

“Firstly, can BYD convince customers to overcome reservations about purchasing from a Chinese auto brand?

“Secondly, can BYD offer superior value to a diverse range of potential EV consumers compared with its competitors?”

If it can do those, European drivers may get used to having a new car brand dominating its roads.

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