今年對于購房人而言,是糟糕的一年。10月末,抵押貸款利率達到8%的最高點,房價高企,但房屋供應水平卻極低,因此,許多人很難而且也沒有經濟實力,進入房地產市場。但在即將步入2024年之際,出現了一絲希望的曙光:11月,房屋開工量激增,達到六個月新高。
美國人口普查局(U.S. Census Bureau)和美國住房與城市發展部(U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development)在周二表示,上個月,新房開工量比10月份的修正預估增加了14.8%,同期單戶住宅開工量增加了18%。
房地產交易服務公司Bright MLS的首席經濟學家麗薩·斯特蒂文特在一份報告中表示:“11月住宅建設活動出人意料地強勁,這主要是受到單戶住宅建筑活動的推動。在建單戶新房數量同比增長了40%。”
但她表示,在建多戶住宅同比減少了33.7%。
但在新年來臨之際,任何新增房屋庫存都是購房人歡迎的趨勢,因為據美國房地產經紀人協會(National Association of Realtors,NAR)統計,9月現房銷售不可思議地同比減少了15%,降至十多年來的最低水平。但這并不足以解決美國的房地產市場危機。
房屋供應不足
斯特蒂文特表示:“盡管11月新房開工量增長,但我們的在建新房仍不足以滿足需求?!彼€表示,房屋供應缺口在300萬至600萬套之間。“在建新房不足導致房租和房價上漲,使得個人和家庭很難找到他們能買得起的房子?!?/p>
斯特蒂文特表示,在一些大都市區,更多房屋已經開工。在新公寓建設如火如荼的地區,出現了租金下降或者租金上漲速度放緩的趨勢。此外,她還表示,今年早些時候,公寓建設量增長,已經開始“給通脹指標的住房部分帶來下行壓力”。她所說的通脹指標是指消費物價指數,其中住房成本是一個重要組成部分。
美國房地產經紀人協會首席經濟學家勞倫斯·云在一份報告中表示,雖然新房建設量出人意料地大幅增加,但由于房屋庫存量過低,因此這仍無法滿足全國的需求。
他說道:“大多數市場持續存在房屋供應不足的問題,因此美國需要建設更多住宅?!薄斗抠J每日新聞》(Mortgage News Daily)報道稱,“只有顯著改善房屋供應,才能緩解房價上漲。即使房屋建設量再增加30%,也能被市場輕松消化,”尤其是在上個月抵押貸款利率從7.34%下降至6.64%之后。
換言之,11月新房建設量激增,并不會馬上解決美國的房地產市場危機。金融服務公司第一美國金融公司(First American)副首席經濟學家奧德塔·庫什在一份報告中表示,美國依舊面臨“房屋建設量嚴重不足”的問題。她呼應斯特蒂文特的說法稱,預估數據顯示美國房地產市場存在350萬至550萬套的缺口。
庫什表示:“新增房屋供應更有可能緩解而不是解決美國的房屋供應不足問題,當然具體結果要看各地的情況?!?/p>
但顯而易見,新房市場的表現一致好于現房市場,因為現有業主擔心會失去低于市場水平的抵押貸款利率,因此選擇了暫停賣房,這種現象被稱為“鎖定效應”。然而,新房市場表現強勁不止是因為這一個原因。房屋建筑商經常提供激勵或折扣,包括買低抵押貸款利率等,可以臨時降低購房人的抵押貸款利率,或者減少貸款總額。一些建筑商還承擔數萬美元的房屋交割成本。
馬里蘭州貝塞斯達房地產咨詢公司RCLCO Real Estate Consulting的負責人凱利·曼戈爾德在一份報告中表示:“在許多情況下,新房市場是唯一可靠的待售庫存房屋供應渠道。利率下降提高了新房的可負擔性,而且建筑商繼續保證他們有足夠的供應,可滿足過去幾年被抑制的需求?!?/p>
據Redfin統計,11月除了新房建設量激增外,房價雖然仍在上漲,但漲幅已經連續三個月下降。Redfin根據其房價指數統計,11月房價環比上漲了0.6%,這是自6月以來的最小漲幅。截至今年第三季度,美國已售房屋的中位數售價為431,000美元,較2020年同期的337,500美元上漲了近28%。(財富中文網)
譯者:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
蓋蒂圖片社
今年對于購房人而言,是糟糕的一年。10月末,抵押貸款利率達到8%的最高點,房價高企,但房屋供應水平卻極低,因此,許多人很難而且也沒有經濟實力,進入房地產市場。但在即將步入2024年之際,出現了一絲希望的曙光:11月,房屋開工量激增,達到六個月新高。
美國人口普查局(U.S. Census Bureau)和美國住房與城市發展部(U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development)在周二表示,上個月,新房開工量比10月份的修正預估增加了14.8%,同期單戶住宅開工量增加了18%。
房地產交易服務公司Bright MLS的首席經濟學家麗薩·斯特蒂文特在一份報告中表示:“11月住宅建設活動出人意料地強勁,這主要是受到單戶住宅建筑活動的推動。在建單戶新房數量同比增長了40%?!?/p>
但她表示,在建多戶住宅同比減少了33.7%。
但在新年來臨之際,任何新增房屋庫存都是購房人歡迎的趨勢,因為據美國房地產經紀人協會(National Association of Realtors,NAR)統計,9月現房銷售不可思議地同比減少了15%,降至十多年來的最低水平。但這并不足以解決美國的房地產市場危機。
房屋供應不足
斯特蒂文特表示:“盡管11月新房開工量增長,但我們的在建新房仍不足以滿足需求?!彼€表示,房屋供應缺口在300萬至600萬套之間。“在建新房不足導致房租和房價上漲,使得個人和家庭很難找到他們能買得起的房子?!?/p>
斯特蒂文特表示,在一些大都市區,更多房屋已經開工。在新公寓建設如火如荼的地區,出現了租金下降或者租金上漲速度放緩的趨勢。此外,她還表示,今年早些時候,公寓建設量增長,已經開始“給通脹指標的住房部分帶來下行壓力”。她所說的通脹指標是指消費物價指數,其中住房成本是一個重要組成部分。
美國房地產經紀人協會首席經濟學家勞倫斯·云在一份報告中表示,雖然新房建設量出人意料地大幅增加,但由于房屋庫存量過低,因此這仍無法滿足全國的需求。
他說道:“大多數市場持續存在房屋供應不足的問題,因此美國需要建設更多住宅?!薄斗抠J每日新聞》(Mortgage News Daily)報道稱,“只有顯著改善房屋供應,才能緩解房價上漲。即使房屋建設量再增加30%,也能被市場輕松消化,”尤其是在上個月抵押貸款利率從7.34%下降至6.64%之后。
換言之,11月新房建設量激增,并不會馬上解決美國的房地產市場危機。金融服務公司第一美國金融公司(First American)副首席經濟學家奧德塔·庫什在一份報告中表示,美國依舊面臨“房屋建設量嚴重不足”的問題。她呼應斯特蒂文特的說法稱,預估數據顯示美國房地產市場存在350萬至550萬套的缺口。
庫什表示:“新增房屋供應更有可能緩解而不是解決美國的房屋供應不足問題,當然具體結果要看各地的情況?!?/p>
但顯而易見,新房市場的表現一致好于現房市場,因為現有業主擔心會失去低于市場水平的抵押貸款利率,因此選擇了暫停賣房,這種現象被稱為“鎖定效應”。然而,新房市場表現強勁不止是因為這一個原因。房屋建筑商經常提供激勵或折扣,包括買低抵押貸款利率等,可以臨時降低購房人的抵押貸款利率,或者減少貸款總額。一些建筑商還承擔數萬美元的房屋交割成本。
馬里蘭州貝塞斯達房地產咨詢公司RCLCO Real Estate Consulting的負責人凱利·曼戈爾德在一份報告中表示:“在許多情況下,新房市場是唯一可靠的待售庫存房屋供應渠道。利率下降提高了新房的可負擔性,而且建筑商繼續保證他們有足夠的供應,可滿足過去幾年被抑制的需求?!?/p>
據Redfin統計,11月除了新房建設量激增外,房價雖然仍在上漲,但漲幅已經連續三個月下降。Redfin根據其房價指數統計,11月房價環比上漲了0.6%,這是自6月以來的最小漲幅。截至今年第三季度,美國已售房屋的中位數售價為431,000美元,較2020年同期的337,500美元上漲了近28%。(財富中文網)
譯者:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
New housing inventory is a welcome trend going into the new year for homebuyers.
GETTY IMAGES
Homebuyers have had it bad this year. Between mortgage rates that peaked at 8% in late October, high home prices, and extremely low levels of supply, it’s been exceedingly difficult and unaffordable for many people to break into the housing market. But there are small glimmers of hope going into 2024: For one, housing starts spiked in November to a six-month high.
New home starts jumped 14.8% last month from October’s revised estimate, and single-family housing starts increased 18% during the same period, the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development said on Tuesday.
“The surprisingly strong November residential construction activity was driven by single-family building activity,” Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist with real estate listing service company Bright MLS, said in a statement. “The number of new single-family homes under construction was up more than 40% compared to a year ago.”
However, she continued, multifamily home starts fell 33.7% compared to a year ago.
Still, any new housing inventory is a welcome trend going into the new year for homebuyers, given existing-home sales plummeted a stunning 15% in September year over year, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR)—the lowest figure in more than a decade. But it’s not enough to solve the nation’s housing crisis.
Not enough housing
“Despite the higher starts in November, we are still not building enough new housing to keep up with demand,” Sturtevant said, adding that the shortfall ranges from 3 to 6 million units. “A lack of sufficient new housing construction drives rents and home prices up, making it difficult for individuals and families to find housing they can afford.”
In some metropolitan areas, more home construction is already underway, Sturtevant said. And in areas where new apartment construction is booming, rents have either come down or rent increases have slowed. Also, the rise in apartment construction earlier this year has already begun to put “downward pressure on the shelter component of the inflation measure,” she added, referring to the consumer price index, in which housing costs are a major component.
Even with the unexpected surge in new construction, the country can use much more considering its exceedingly low inventory levels, National Association of Realtors’ chief economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.
“Even more homebuilding will be needed with the housing shortage persisting in most markets,” he said. “Home price appreciation can only moderate from drastically improved supply. Another 30% rise in home construction can easily be absorbed in the marketplace,” especially in light of a plunge in mortgage rates during the past month from 7.34% to 6.64%, according to Mortgage News Daily.
In other words, the surge in new construction in November isn’t suddenly going to fix the housing crisis nationwide. The country remains “meaningfully underbuilt,” Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist with financial services firm First American, said in a statement. Estimates show that the country is short 3.5 million to 5.5 million housing units, she said, echoing Sturtevant.
The “new supply of housing is more likely to ease rather than erase the national housing shortage, although this will of course vary by location,” Kushi said.
Nevertheless, it’s clear that the new-home market has consistently outperformed the existing-home market, as current homeowners hold on to their homes for fear of losing their below-market mortgage rates—a phenomenon referred to as the lock-in effect. However, that’s not the only thing that’s keeping the new-home market strong. Homebuilders are more often than not offering incentives or discounts, including mortgage rate buydowns, which can either reduce a buyer’s mortgage rate temporarily or for the entirety of the loan. Some builders are also covering up to tens of thousands of dollars in closing costs.
“The new-home market is in many cases the only reliable supplier of for-sale inventory,” Kelly Mangold, principal of Bethesda, Md.-based real estate advisory RCLCO Real Estate Consulting, said in a statement. “Lower rates increase the affordability of new homes, and builders are continuing to ensure they have enough supply ready to meet the pent-up demand from the past few years.”
In addition to the surge in new-home construction, home prices, while increasing, have slowed for the third straight month in November, according to Redfin. Home prices rose 0.6% from a month earlier, the smallest increase since June, Redfin said, as measured by its home price index. The median sale price for houses sold in the U.S. is $431,000, as of the third quarter of this year, a nearly 28% increase from the same period in 2020, when the median price was $337,500.