最新數據表明,美國公司在后疫情時代的招聘熱潮即將結束。美國勞工統計局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)周二的報告顯示,10月,美國職位空缺減少了61.7萬個,降至32個月最低的873萬個。
這個數字遠低于外界普遍預測的940萬個,但大多數經濟學家和華爾街公司領導者似乎對此并不擔心。事實恰恰相反。Indeed Hiring Lab的經濟研究總監尼克·邦克談到職位空缺數據時表示:“這份報告應該可以讓人們過一個快樂的節日。”
邦克和其他許多經濟學家對降溫的勞動力市場感到樂觀,因為這正是美聯儲控制通脹的目標。自從2022年3月美聯儲官員為了控制持續上漲的消費物價而進行加息以來,他們曾警告需要降低勞動力市場的增長速度。
尤其是今年隨著通脹穩定下降,美聯儲認為職位空缺與失業人數的比例升高,證明勞動力市場過熱,必須通過加息使其降溫。但10月,職位空缺與失業人數的比例,從幾個月前的2比1下降至1.3比1。
現在,有許多專家相信,美聯儲可以結束加息。銀率網(Bankrate)高級經濟分析師馬克·哈姆里克周二表示:“美聯儲最好結束本輪加息周期。”他指出,雖然美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾最近發表了鷹派言論,“許多投資者和其他觀察家都認為,美聯儲可能在2024年開始實行寬松貨幣政策,或者降息。”
周二,10年期國債收益率下降至只有4.18%,為自9月初以來的最低水平,這可以證明,債券市場預測美聯儲將在明年降息。這對于企業和消費者而言是好消息。過去幾年,借款成本上漲令他們苦不堪言。而且,這也可能表明美國會實現“軟著陸”,即通脹下降但不會引發經濟衰退。
“軟著陸”陣營的更多好消息
過去兩年多,美國陷入經濟衰退的概率問題引起了激烈爭論,而最新的職位空缺數據給華爾街的樂觀主義者們提供了有力證據。現在,許多專家相信,最新職位空缺數據表明美國經濟將避免經濟衰退。
Indeed的邦克表示:“美國經濟軟著陸的概率不斷提高。”他指出,雖然10月職位空缺數量減少,但公司招聘和員工辭職率實際上保持穩定,這“證明勞動力市場并沒有出現斷崖式下跌”。
與此同時,雖然職位空缺數量從2022年3月1,200萬的最高點大幅減少,但10月的873萬個職位空缺,依舊遠高于疫情之前的水平。例如,2020年1月,美國的職位空缺只有約700萬個。
但有明顯的跡象表明,美國的勞動力市場正在降溫,例如美國的失業率從4月的3.4%提高到上個月的3.9%。銀率網的哈姆里克周二還表示“預計就業市場會繼續降溫”。但這并不意味著經濟衰退不可避免。他說道:“雖然從去年[2022年]年初以來就有人預測經濟衰退近在眼前,但美國經濟依舊表現出遠超預期的韌性。”
哈姆里克表示,最新職位空缺數據表明,2024年最有可能出現的情況是“軟著陸”,但“并不能完全排除短期輕度衰退的可能性”。
但懷疑論者依舊不相信
對美聯儲而言,最近勞動力市場增速放緩,在短期內可能是好消息,但如果這種狀況持續太長時間,就有可能發生經濟衰退。由維羅妮卡·克拉克領導的花旗集團(Citi)經濟學家們,在周二發布的一份報告中表示,他們擔心2024年可能會發生經濟衰退。克拉克預測,隨著美聯儲加息對經濟的滯后影響顯現,目前勞動力市場再平衡可能演變成更糟糕的局面,她認為明年職位空缺還會大幅減少。
她警告稱:“勞動力市場指標會從‘軟著陸’水平過渡到‘硬著陸’水平。”她指出,最近的勞動力市場再平衡與失業率上升是同時發生的。
克拉克還警告,在目前在線招聘的時代,勞工統計局發布的職位空缺“有一定程度的錯誤”,因此應該有所保留看待這些數據。她補充道:“后疫情時代更低的調查回復率,也可能導致相關數據環比出現更大波動。”
Nationwide的金融市場經濟學家奧倫·克拉奇擔心,2024年,勞動力市場可能持續疲軟,盡管他承認最新的職位空缺數據正是美聯儲期待看到的數據。
克拉奇表示,高利率和信貸緊縮最終將迫使公司裁員,影響消費者支出。由于美國消費者支出在美國經濟增長中的占比約為70%,因此2024年可能是面臨挑戰的一年。
克拉奇稱:“有人認為美國經濟可以避免經濟衰退,但我們依舊認為,美聯儲的限制性政策和信貸緊縮,會在2024年導致硬著陸。”
消費者似乎也感到悲觀。世界大型企業聯合會(Conference Board)的最新《消費者信心報告》(Consumer Confidence Report)顯示,雖然對經濟衰退的擔憂有所下降,但約三分之二的消費者依舊認為,未來12個月,“有一定的可能”或者“非常有可能”發生經濟衰退。(財富中文網)
譯者:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
最新數據表明,美國公司在后疫情時代的招聘熱潮即將結束。美國勞工統計局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)周二的報告顯示,10月,美國職位空缺減少了61.7萬個,降至32個月最低的873萬個。
這個數字遠低于外界普遍預測的940萬個,但大多數經濟學家和華爾街公司領導者似乎對此并不擔心。事實恰恰相反。Indeed Hiring Lab的經濟研究總監尼克·邦克談到職位空缺數據時表示:“這份報告應該可以讓人們過一個快樂的節日。”
邦克和其他許多經濟學家對降溫的勞動力市場感到樂觀,因為這正是美聯儲控制通脹的目標。自從2022年3月美聯儲官員為了控制持續上漲的消費物價而進行加息以來,他們曾警告需要降低勞動力市場的增長速度。
尤其是今年隨著通脹穩定下降,美聯儲認為職位空缺與失業人數的比例升高,證明勞動力市場過熱,必須通過加息使其降溫。但10月,職位空缺與失業人數的比例,從幾個月前的2比1下降至1.3比1。
現在,有許多專家相信,美聯儲可以結束加息。銀率網(Bankrate)高級經濟分析師馬克·哈姆里克周二表示:“美聯儲最好結束本輪加息周期。”他指出,雖然美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾最近發表了鷹派言論,“許多投資者和其他觀察家都認為,美聯儲可能在2024年開始實行寬松貨幣政策,或者降息。”
周二,10年期國債收益率下降至只有4.18%,為自9月初以來的最低水平,這可以證明,債券市場預測美聯儲將在明年降息。這對于企業和消費者而言是好消息。過去幾年,借款成本上漲令他們苦不堪言。而且,這也可能表明美國會實現“軟著陸”,即通脹下降但不會引發經濟衰退。
“軟著陸”陣營的更多好消息
過去兩年多,美國陷入經濟衰退的概率問題引起了激烈爭論,而最新的職位空缺數據給華爾街的樂觀主義者們提供了有力證據。現在,許多專家相信,最新職位空缺數據表明美國經濟將避免經濟衰退。
Indeed的邦克表示:“美國經濟軟著陸的概率不斷提高。”他指出,雖然10月職位空缺數量減少,但公司招聘和員工辭職率實際上保持穩定,這“證明勞動力市場并沒有出現斷崖式下跌”。
與此同時,雖然職位空缺數量從2022年3月1,200萬的最高點大幅減少,但10月的873萬個職位空缺,依舊遠高于疫情之前的水平。例如,2020年1月,美國的職位空缺只有約700萬個。
但有明顯的跡象表明,美國的勞動力市場正在降溫,例如美國的失業率從4月的3.4%提高到上個月的3.9%。銀率網的哈姆里克周二還表示“預計就業市場會繼續降溫”。但這并不意味著經濟衰退不可避免。他說道:“雖然從去年[2022年]年初以來就有人預測經濟衰退近在眼前,但美國經濟依舊表現出遠超預期的韌性。”
哈姆里克表示,最新職位空缺數據表明,2024年最有可能出現的情況是“軟著陸”,但“并不能完全排除短期輕度衰退的可能性”。
但懷疑論者依舊不相信
對美聯儲而言,最近勞動力市場增速放緩,在短期內可能是好消息,但如果這種狀況持續太長時間,就有可能發生經濟衰退。由維羅妮卡·克拉克領導的花旗集團(Citi)經濟學家們,在周二發布的一份報告中表示,他們擔心2024年可能會發生經濟衰退。克拉克預測,隨著美聯儲加息對經濟的滯后影響顯現,目前勞動力市場再平衡可能演變成更糟糕的局面,她認為明年職位空缺還會大幅減少。
她警告稱:“勞動力市場指標會從‘軟著陸’水平過渡到‘硬著陸’水平。”她指出,最近的勞動力市場再平衡與失業率上升是同時發生的。
克拉克還警告,在目前在線招聘的時代,勞工統計局發布的職位空缺“有一定程度的錯誤”,因此應該有所保留看待這些數據。她補充道:“后疫情時代更低的調查回復率,也可能導致相關數據環比出現更大波動。”
Nationwide的金融市場經濟學家奧倫·克拉奇擔心,2024年,勞動力市場可能持續疲軟,盡管他承認最新的職位空缺數據正是美聯儲期待看到的數據。
克拉奇表示,高利率和信貸緊縮最終將迫使公司裁員,影響消費者支出。由于美國消費者支出在美國經濟增長中的占比約為70%,因此2024年可能是面臨挑戰的一年。
克拉奇稱:“有人認為美國經濟可以避免經濟衰退,但我們依舊認為,美聯儲的限制性政策和信貸緊縮,會在2024年導致硬著陸。”
消費者似乎也感到悲觀。世界大型企業聯合會(Conference Board)的最新《消費者信心報告》(Consumer Confidence Report)顯示,雖然對經濟衰退的擔憂有所下降,但約三分之二的消費者依舊認為,未來12個月,“有一定的可能”或者“非常有可能”發生經濟衰退。(財富中文網)
譯者:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
New data shows corporate America’s post-pandemic hiring push is coming to an end. U.S. job openings dropped by 617,000 in October to a 32-month low of 8.73 million, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday.
The figure was well below consensus forecasts for 9.4 million job openings, but most economists and Wall Street leaders don’t seem worried. In fact, quite the opposite. “This report should bring abundant holiday cheer,” Indeed Hiring Lab’s director of economic research, Nick Bunker, said of the job openings data.
Bunker and many of his economist peers are optimistic amid the cooling labor market because labor market cooling is exactly the Federal Reserve’s goal in its battle with inflation. Ever since the central bank’s officials began raising interest rates to fight rising consumer prices in March 2022, they’ve warned they would need to slow the labor market.
More specifically, this year, with inflation fading steadily, the Fed has pointed to the elevated ratio of job openings to unemployed workers as a sign of an overheated labor market that must be chilled with interest rate hikes. But in October, the job openings to unemployed workers ratio fell to just 1.3 to 1, down from 2 to 1 just a few months ago.
Now many experts believe the Fed can end its interest rate hiking campaign. “The Federal Reserve could well be finished raising interest rates this cycle,” Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate, said Tuesday, noting that despite Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish tone in recent speeches, “many investors and other observers believe the beginning of easing, or rate cuts, could come in 2024.”
In a sign the bond market is expecting the Fed to pivot to interest rate cuts next year, the 10-year Treasury yield fell to just 4.18% Tuesday, its lowest level since early September. That’s great news for businesses and consumers, which have struggled with rising borrowing costs for years. And it could even be a sign that a “soft landing”—when inflation fades without a subsequent recession—is on the way.
More juice for the soft landing camp
The latest job openings data has given ammunition to more optimistic forecasters on Wall Street after more than two years of heated debates about the likelihood of recession. Many experts are now convinced the latest job openings data is a sign that the economy will avoid a recession.
“The probability of a soft landing continues to rise,” Indeed’s Bunker said, noting that although job openings fell in October, corporate hiring and worker quit rates actually remained flat—“a sign that the labor market isn’t falling off a cliff.”
At the same time, although job openings have fallen sharply from their peak of 12 million in March 2022, they were still well above pre-pandemic levels in October at 8.73 million. In January 2020, for instance, there were only roughly 7 million job openings across the U.S.
There are clear signs the labor market is cooling, however, with the unemployment rate rising from a low of 3.4% in April to 3.9% last month. Bankrate’s Hamrick also said Tuesday that “further cooling in the job market is expected.” But that doesn’t mean a recession is inevitable. “While there’s been talk about an imminent recession going back to early last year [2022], the U.S. economy has remained substantially more resilient than expected,” he said.
Hamrick argued that the latest job openings data indicates the most likely scenario for 2024 is a “soft landing,” but “a mild and short recession can’t totally be ruled out.”
But the skeptics are still…skeptical
The recent labor market slowdown may be a good sign for the Fed in the near term, but if it continues for too long, a recession could be on the menu. That’s an outcome Citi economists, led by Veronica Clark, said in a Tuesday note that they fear is likely in 2024. Clark predicts the current labor market rebalancing will shift to something far worse as the lagged impact of the Fed’s interest rate hikes hits the economy, arguing job openings will fall sharply next year.
“Labor market metrics will pass ‘soft landing’ levels on their way to ‘hard landing’ ones,” she warned, noting that the recent labor market rebalance evidenced by the job openings data has coincided with rising unemployment.
Clark also cautioned that the job openings data from the BLS is “somewhat ill-defined” in the modern era of online job postings, and should therefore be taken with a grain of salt. “Much lower survey response rates post-pandemic will likely also lead to greater month-to-month volatility in the data,” she added.
Nationwide’s financial market economist Oren Klachkin fears the labor market may continue to weaken in 2024 as well, even if he admitted the latest job openings data was precisely what the Fed was looking for.
Eventually, high interest rates and tight credit conditions will force businesses to cut their workforces, hindering consumer spending, according to Klachkin. And because consumer spending makes up roughly 70% of U.S. economic growth, 2024 could be a challenging year.
“Some think the economy can avoid a recession, but we continue to envisage that restrictive Fed policy and tight credit will cause a hard landing in 2024,“ Klachkin said.
Consumers seem to be on the side of the bears, too. The Conference Board’s latest Consumer Confidence Report showed that although recession fears have dipped, roughly two-thirds of consumers still believe a recession is either “somewhat” or “very likely” to occur over the next 12 months.