美國目前正面臨著住宅短缺和可負擔性危機,這令Z世代紛紛質疑他們還能否實現美國夢,擁有一套理想的、有白色柵欄的房子。與此同時,中國的房地產市場卻面臨一場截然不同的危機。多年來,房地產企業通過借貸過度建設,導致中國有大量住房空置。一位前政府官員表示,中國現有空置住房14億人都住不完。
據路透社最先報道,中國國家統計局原副局長賀鏗上周末在東莞的一次會議上說道:“空置的房屋究竟有多少?各個專家估出來的數字相差很大,最極端的觀點認為目前的空置房屋足以供給30億人居住。”
他提到了目前對中國總人口的估算,補充道:“這個估計或許有些夸大,但14億人可能住不完。”
雖然對中國空置住宅和公寓的數量估算差別巨大,但專家認為,空置房屋在6,500萬套至8,000萬套之間。賀鏗似乎在暗示這只是冰山一角。
這“不只是周期性調整”
數十年來,中國房地產市場幫助刺激了國家GDP的增長,房地產已經成為對中國經濟來說最重要的行業。事實上,由中國和亞洲經濟學家歐陽淼(音譯)領導的美國銀行研究(Bank of America Research)團隊認為,中國未償還按揭貸款占GDP的31%,而且中國59%的家庭資產是房地產。
但近幾年,中國在疫情之后的經濟狀況與歐美不同。當西方國家經濟過熱并且通脹高企時,中國卻面臨通貨緊縮、年輕人失業率上升和需求低迷等問題。這導致中國曾經火爆的房地產市場走向崩潰,尤其是規模龐大的房企陷入可怕的困境。最先倒下的是房地產巨頭恒大集團(Evergrande),在2021年由于持續虧損,恒大宣布債務違約。2021年和2022年,恒大虧損810億美元,超過了巴拿馬的GDP。
中國房地產市場的困境延續到今年,銷量持續低迷,導致恒大的同行也陷入了困境。中國規模最大的房地產開發商碧桂園(Country Garden),公布今年上半年凈虧損67.2億美元,只是僥幸避免了債務違約。2023年,中國地產股暴跌,市值縮水了560億美元。
開發商所面臨的問題只是中國房地產市場結構性改革的一個縮影,改革之后,房地產市場將不再是曾經的經濟增長引擎。
歐陽淼的美國銀行團隊在上周四的一份客戶報告中解釋稱,持續多年的過度建設和中國人口老齡化,導致房地產市場已經飽和,而且需求低迷。
該團隊表示:“中國房地產市場低迷不只是一次周期性調整,而是反映了對住宅需求的長期下滑。”他們提到,根據中國人民銀行(People’s Bank of China)2019年的一項調查,中國96%的城市家庭已經擁有至少一套住房或公寓。
歐陽淼和許多其他經濟學家認為,中國房地產市場的問題,對中國經濟能否繼續維持過去十年的增長速度提出了嚴峻挑戰。
她寫道:“現在的關鍵問題依舊是,在短期甚至中期,哪些行業能夠取代房地產業,成為中國經濟的增長引擎。”(財富中文網)
翻譯:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
美國目前正面臨著住宅短缺和可負擔性危機,這令Z世代紛紛質疑他們還能否實現美國夢,擁有一套理想的、有白色柵欄的房子。與此同時,中國的房地產市場卻面臨一場截然不同的危機。多年來,房地產企業通過借貸過度建設,導致中國有大量住房空置。一位前政府官員表示,中國現有空置住房14億人都住不完。
據路透社最先報道,中國國家統計局原副局長賀鏗上周末在東莞的一次會議上說道:“空置的房屋究竟有多少?各個專家估出來的數字相差很大,最極端的觀點認為目前的空置房屋足以供給30億人居住。”
他提到了目前對中國總人口的估算,補充道:“這個估計或許有些夸大,但14億人可能住不完。”
雖然對中國空置住宅和公寓的數量估算差別巨大,但專家認為,空置房屋在6,500萬套至8,000萬套之間。賀鏗似乎在暗示這只是冰山一角。
這“不只是周期性調整”
數十年來,中國房地產市場幫助刺激了國家GDP的增長,房地產已經成為對中國經濟來說最重要的行業。事實上,由中國和亞洲經濟學家歐陽淼(音譯)領導的美國銀行研究(Bank of America Research)團隊認為,中國未償還按揭貸款占GDP的31%,而且中國59%的家庭資產是房地產。
但近幾年,中國在疫情之后的經濟狀況與歐美不同。當西方國家經濟過熱并且通脹高企時,中國卻面臨通貨緊縮、年輕人失業率上升和需求低迷等問題。這導致中國曾經火爆的房地產市場走向崩潰,尤其是規模龐大的房企陷入可怕的困境。最先倒下的是房地產巨頭恒大集團(Evergrande),在2021年由于持續虧損,恒大宣布債務違約。2021年和2022年,恒大虧損810億美元,超過了巴拿馬的GDP。
中國房地產市場的困境延續到今年,銷量持續低迷,導致恒大的同行也陷入了困境。中國規模最大的房地產開發商碧桂園(Country Garden),公布今年上半年凈虧損67.2億美元,只是僥幸避免了債務違約。2023年,中國地產股暴跌,市值縮水了560億美元。
開發商所面臨的問題只是中國房地產市場結構性改革的一個縮影,改革之后,房地產市場將不再是曾經的經濟增長引擎。
歐陽淼的美國銀行團隊在上周四的一份客戶報告中解釋稱,持續多年的過度建設和中國人口老齡化,導致房地產市場已經飽和,而且需求低迷。
該團隊表示:“中國房地產市場低迷不只是一次周期性調整,而是反映了對住宅需求的長期下滑。”他們提到,根據中國人民銀行(People’s Bank of China)2019年的一項調查,中國96%的城市家庭已經擁有至少一套住房或公寓。
歐陽淼和許多其他經濟學家認為,中國房地產市場的問題,對中國經濟能否繼續維持過去十年的增長速度提出了嚴峻挑戰。
她寫道:“現在的關鍵問題依舊是,在短期甚至中期,哪些行業能夠取代房地產業,成為中國經濟的增長引擎。”(財富中文網)
翻譯:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
While the U.S. is facing a housing shortage and affordability crisis that has Gen Zers questioning whether they’ll ever be able to achieve the idealized, white-picket fence American Dream, China is in the middle of a very different kind of housing nightmare. Years of debt-fueled overbuilding have left the country with rows and rows of empty homes—as well as almost entirely vacant “ghost cities.” And now a former government official says the number of empty residences is so big that a country of 1.4 billion people is struggling to fill them.
“How many vacant homes are there now?” He Keng, the former deputy head of China’s statistics bureau, said at an event in the southern industrial city of Dongguan over the weekend, Reuters first reported. “Each expert gives a very different number, with the most extreme believing the current number of vacant homes are enough for 3 billion people.”
“That estimate might be a bit much, but 1.4 billion people probably can’t fill them,” he added, referencing the current estimate for China’s entire population.
While estimates for the number of vacant homes and apartments in China vary widely, experts believe a range between 65 million to 80 million units is reasonable. Keng seems to be indicating that’s just not the full iceberg.
It ‘isn’t just a cyclical correction’
China’s real estate market has helped boost the nation’s GDP for decades, becoming the most important sector of its economy. In fact, according to a Bank of America Research team led by China and Asia Economist Miao Ouyang, China’s outstanding mortgages alone amount to 31% of its GDP, and 59% of the nation’s household assets are held in real estate.
In recent years, though, China’s post-pandemic economic experience has differed from that of the U.S. and Europe, as it’s grappled with deflation, rising youth unemployment, and a lack of demand, even as inflation has surged amid Western economies that have been running too hot. The nation’s once red-hot housing market has begun to crack as a result, leaving its mega-developers in particularly dire straits. The first pillar to fall was the real estate giant Evergrande, which defaulted on its debts in 2021 amid mounting losses. In 2021 and 2022 alone, Evergrande racked up $81 billion in losses, more than the GDP of Panama.
The pain in China’s housing market has only continued this year amid plummeting property sales, leaving Evergrande’s peers in limbo. Country Garden, the nation’s largest property developer, only narrowly avoided defaulting on its debts this summer after posting a $6.72 billion net loss in the first half of the year. And Chinese property developer stocks as a whole have collapsed in 2023, losing $56 billion of value.
Developers’ issues are an example of a structural change underway in China’s housing market that could prevent the sector from being the growth driver it has been historically.
Miao Ouyang’s Bank of America team explained in a Thursday note to clients that years of overbuilding and China’s aging population have combined to saturate the housing market with inventory, while slowing demand.
“China’s housing market downturn isn’t just a cyclical correction but also reflects a long-term decline in intrinsic housing demand,” they wrote, noting that 96% of urban households in China already own at least one house or apartment, according to a 2019 People’s Bank of China survey.
For Ouyang, and many of her economist peers, China’s property market issues raise serious questions about the nation’s ability to continue growing at the pace it has over the past decade.
“The key question now remains what can replace the property sector as a growth engine for the Chinese economy over the medium term, if not right away,” she wrote.