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沙特石油減產,美國司機可能很快就能感受到高油價的影響

OPEC+會議的主要贏家是阿聯酋。

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沙特能源部長阿卜杜勒·阿齊茲·本·薩勒曼親王出席周六在維也納召開的第186次石油輸出國組織(OPEC)會議。圖片來源:JOE KLAMAR/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES

沙特阿拉伯表示在7月,本國每天石油產量將額外減產100萬桶,使其產量降至原油價格暴跌幾年后的最低水平。

在此次OPEC+會議上,其他產油國均未提出維持當前油價的額外措施,但將現有的產量削減計劃延長到2024年。沙特能源部長阿卜杜勒·阿齊茲·本·薩勒曼親王在會上發表了講話,他表示沙特“將竭盡全力維持市場穩定”。

兩個月前,沙特剛剛同意減產,但經過幾輪減產后未能實現持續的價格反彈,因此沙特將加大減產力度。石油輸出國組織(Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries)及其盟友在4月初突然宣布減少每天約160萬桶石油供應,但之后中國經濟數據疲軟和對經濟衰退的擔憂影響了石油期貨的行情,5月在紐約交易的石油期貨價格下跌11%。

阿卜杜勒·阿齊茲親王表示,下個月的額外減產計劃可能延長,但關于是否會真正延長減產計劃,沙特將讓市場“保持懸念”。沙特能源部長多次試圖讓看跌石油行情的投機者措手不及。他在上周日會議召開之前曾警告投機者“要小心”。

咨詢公司拉皮丹能源集團(Rapidan Energy Group)的總裁、前白宮官員鮑勃·麥克納利表示:“近期內,原油價格將主要取決于對意志的考驗?!边@將是“尋求市場穩定的沙特阿拉伯和看跌石油的期貨合約交易商之間”的戰爭。

沙特周日宣布的額外減產計劃,將使其在7月份的日產量降至約900萬桶,創下自2021年6月以來的最低水平。2021年6月,石油產量從新冠疫情期間的低谷開始逐漸恢復。

周末OPEC+會議的主要贏家是阿聯酋。阿聯酋明年的生產配額提升,因為部分非洲國家被要求放棄部分未使用的配額。阿聯酋能源部長蘇海勒·阿爾·馬茲魯伊感謝其他成員國的能源部長增加生產配額,并表達了對OPEC的忠誠。

他說道:“我們將永遠支持OPEC,并始終團結在一起?!边@是一項重要的聲明,因為阿聯酋此前曾有過離開OPEC的想法,不止一次威脅如果無法獲得更高生產配額,將離開該組織。

OPEC+第二大產油國俄羅斯未被要求在今年額外減產,但與其他成員國一樣,俄羅斯將其當前的減產計劃延長一年至2024年底。自從歐洲禁止對俄羅斯石油的大多數進口之后,俄羅斯與來自海灣地區的OPEC盟友們在亞洲市場的競爭日益激烈。最近幾個月,由于俄羅斯的高石油出口量,關于其是否充分兌現了減產的承諾,也遭到了一些質疑。

由于各國部長為了OPEC+協議的細節討價還價,最終公布時間推遲了幾個小時。爭議最多的一點是修改衡量多個國家減產量所依據的基準。會議代表表示,非洲國家安哥拉和尼日利亞幾乎從未實現在三年前提出的產量目標,因此他們是反對減產計劃最激烈的國家。

雖然這些國家無法充分利用其產量配額,但他們并不愿意放棄配額。有多個國家正在尋找新投資,以增加未來幾年的產量,而限制性的OPEC+產量配額將影響他們對于外國投資者的吸引力。

這是一個政治上的苦果,而上周六晚上,在維也納酒店里的談判一直持續到深夜,周日各國又在OPEC總部進行了漫長的談判。最終各國打破了僵局,非洲國家同意降低產量限額,但條件是他們的產能需要接受獨立審查。(財富中文網)

翻譯:劉進龍

審校:汪皓

沙特阿拉伯表示在7月,本國每天石油產量將額外減產100萬桶,使其產量降至原油價格暴跌幾年后的最低水平。

在此次OPEC+會議上,其他產油國均未提出維持當前油價的額外措施,但將現有的產量削減計劃延長到2024年。沙特能源部長阿卜杜勒·阿齊茲·本·薩勒曼親王在會上發表了講話,他表示沙特“將竭盡全力維持市場穩定”。

兩個月前,沙特剛剛同意減產,但經過幾輪減產后未能實現持續的價格反彈,因此沙特將加大減產力度。石油輸出國組織(Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries)及其盟友在4月初突然宣布減少每天約160萬桶石油供應,但之后中國經濟數據疲軟和對經濟衰退的擔憂影響了石油期貨的行情,5月在紐約交易的石油期貨價格下跌11%。

阿卜杜勒·阿齊茲親王表示,下個月的額外減產計劃可能延長,但關于是否會真正延長減產計劃,沙特將讓市場“保持懸念”。沙特能源部長多次試圖讓看跌石油行情的投機者措手不及。他在上周日會議召開之前曾警告投機者“要小心”。

咨詢公司拉皮丹能源集團(Rapidan Energy Group)的總裁、前白宮官員鮑勃·麥克納利表示:“近期內,原油價格將主要取決于對意志的考驗?!边@將是“尋求市場穩定的沙特阿拉伯和看跌石油的期貨合約交易商之間”的戰爭。

沙特周日宣布的額外減產計劃,將使其在7月份的日產量降至約900萬桶,創下自2021年6月以來的最低水平。2021年6月,石油產量從新冠疫情期間的低谷開始逐漸恢復。

周末OPEC+會議的主要贏家是阿聯酋。阿聯酋明年的生產配額提升,因為部分非洲國家被要求放棄部分未使用的配額。阿聯酋能源部長蘇海勒·阿爾·馬茲魯伊感謝其他成員國的能源部長增加生產配額,并表達了對OPEC的忠誠。

他說道:“我們將永遠支持OPEC,并始終團結在一起。”這是一項重要的聲明,因為阿聯酋此前曾有過離開OPEC的想法,不止一次威脅如果無法獲得更高生產配額,將離開該組織。

OPEC+第二大產油國俄羅斯未被要求在今年額外減產,但與其他成員國一樣,俄羅斯將其當前的減產計劃延長一年至2024年底。自從歐洲禁止對俄羅斯石油的大多數進口之后,俄羅斯與來自海灣地區的OPEC盟友們在亞洲市場的競爭日益激烈。最近幾個月,由于俄羅斯的高石油出口量,關于其是否充分兌現了減產的承諾,也遭到了一些質疑。

由于各國部長為了OPEC+協議的細節討價還價,最終公布時間推遲了幾個小時。爭議最多的一點是修改衡量多個國家減產量所依據的基準。會議代表表示,非洲國家安哥拉和尼日利亞幾乎從未實現在三年前提出的產量目標,因此他們是反對減產計劃最激烈的國家。

雖然這些國家無法充分利用其產量配額,但他們并不愿意放棄配額。有多個國家正在尋找新投資,以增加未來幾年的產量,而限制性的OPEC+產量配額將影響他們對于外國投資者的吸引力。

這是一個政治上的苦果,而上周六晚上,在維也納酒店里的談判一直持續到深夜,周日各國又在OPEC總部進行了漫長的談判。最終各國打破了僵局,非洲國家同意降低產量限額,但條件是他們的產能需要接受獨立審查。(財富中文網)

翻譯:劉進龍

審校:汪皓

Saudi Arabia said it will make an extra 1 million barrel-a-day production cut in July, taking its production to the lowest level for several years after a plunge in crude prices.

Speaking after an OPEC+ meeting in which other producers offered no additional action to buttress current oil prices, but did extend their existing cuts into 2024, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said the kingdom “will do whatever is necessary to bring stability to this market.”

The kingdom is doubling down on production cuts after the previous round of curbs — agreed just two months ago — failed to deliver a sustained price rally. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies announced a surprise supply reduction of about 1.6 million barrels a day in early April, but since then weak economic data from China and recession fears have weighed on oil futures, which fell 11% in New York in May.

Next month’s additional cut could be extended, but the Saudis will keep the market “in suspense” about whether this will happen, Prince Abdulaziz said. The minister has repeatedly sought to catch bearish oil speculators off guard, warning them to “watch out” in the buildup to Sunday’s meeting.

“For the near term, crude prices will largely depend on a test of wills,” said Bob McNally, president of consultant Rapidan Energy Group and a former White House official. It will be a battle “between stability-seeking Saudi Arabia and bearish paper traders.”

The additional cuts announced on Sunday will bring Saudi production to about 9 million barrels a day in July, the lowest since June 2021 when output was still recovering from the depths of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The main winner from the weekend’s OPEC+ talks was the United Arab Emirates, which gets a boost to its production limit for next year at the expense of some African members who were asked to give up part of their unused quotas. Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei thanked his colleagues for the increase and expressed the country’s loyalty to the cartel.

“We will always support OPEC and will always stay together,” he said. It was an important statement from a country that has previously toyed with the idea of leaving OPEC, on at least one occasion threatening to leave the group if it didn’t get a higher quota.

Russia, the second largest OPEC+ producer, wasn’t required to make any additional cuts this year, but like other members it extended its existing curbs by a year to the end of 2024. Moscow has increasingly been competing with its Gulf OPEC allies in Asian markets since Europe banned most imports of its oil. There have also been questions about whether it has fully implemented its pledged production cuts in recent months due to high volumes of exports.

The announcement of the OPEC+ deal was delayed by several hours as ministers haggled over the details. The most contentious point was the revision to the baselines against which the production cuts of several nations are measured. African nations Angola and Nigeria, which have struggled to meet their output targets almost since they were introduced three years ago, were the strongest holdouts, delegates said.

Even though the countries can’t fully utilize their output quotas today, they were unwilling to give them up, delegates said. Several of them are seeking new investments to boost production in coming years and a restrictive OPEC+ output quota could undermine their attractiveness to foreign investors.

It was a bitter political pill for them to swallow and talks dragged on through late night sessions in Vienna hotels on Saturday to a prolonged set of negotiations in the OPEC headquarters on Sunday. In the end, the impasse was resolved and the African countries agreed to lower output limits, subject to an independent review of their production capacities.

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