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我們可能正處于“熊市的最后階段”,投資者可以買(mǎi)入了

Will Daniel
2023-04-29

“熊市即將結(jié)束,2023年下半年將迎來(lái)令人興奮的新牛市。”

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2023年3月23日,美國(guó)紐約市,交易員在紐約證券交易所(New York Stock Exchange)的大廳里工作。圖片來(lái)源:PHOTO BY SPENCER PLATT/GETTY IMAGES

世界上的許多大型投資銀行都警告說(shuō),隨著美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)繼續(xù)與通脹作斗爭(zhēng),在整個(gè)2023年股市都很容易受到經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的影響。盡管利率不斷上升,預(yù)測(cè)很悲觀,但標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)(S&P 500)今年給投資者帶來(lái)了超過(guò)8%的回報(bào),美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)也表現(xiàn)出了驚人的彈性。亞特蘭大聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行(Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)目前預(yù)計(jì),美國(guó)第一季度GDP增速將達(dá)到2.5%,此前美國(guó)3月的失業(yè)率仍然接近3.5%的歷史低點(diǎn)。因此,一些華爾街資深人士正在轉(zhuǎn)向看漲。

投資公司Main Street Research的創(chuàng)始人及首席投資官詹姆斯·德默特在4月24日對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示,他認(rèn)為股市正處于“熊市的最后階段,投資者應(yīng)該買(mǎi)入估值合理的優(yōu)秀公司的股票。”該公司管理著約20億美元的資產(chǎn)。

他說(shuō):“熊市即將結(jié)束,2023年下半年將迎來(lái)令人興奮的新牛市。”他特別指出了科技股的潛力。

在去年暴跌30%之后,科技股在2023年開(kāi)始復(fù)蘇,但德默特警告稱(chēng),該行業(yè)仍然存在風(fēng)險(xiǎn),而且有很多被高估的股票。他表示,一些投資者甚至可能對(duì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)通過(guò)降息來(lái)提振科技股的預(yù)期“過(guò)于樂(lè)觀”。但這并不意味著沒(méi)有值得買(mǎi)入的科技公司股票。德默特預(yù)計(jì),即使在經(jīng)濟(jì)不確定的情況下,包括蘋(píng)果(Apple)和微軟(Microsoft)在內(nèi)的許多大型科技公司以及網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全股今年也將達(dá)到或超過(guò)其盈利預(yù)期。

他表示:“我們認(rèn)為所有投資者都應(yīng)該有一份股價(jià)合理的科技龍頭股清單,并將一定現(xiàn)金配置到科技股中。”他補(bǔ)充道,現(xiàn)在是逢低買(mǎi)入的時(shí)候。

然而,德默特警告稱(chēng),不應(yīng)該大型科技公司“混為一談”,他指出,亞馬遜(Amazon)的市盈率接近80倍,仍然被高估。這位首席投資官表示,投資者應(yīng)該專(zhuān)注于尋找那些股價(jià)/市盈率有吸引力,且擁有“護(hù)城河”,能夠“在經(jīng)濟(jì)萎縮的情況下實(shí)現(xiàn)持續(xù)盈利”的公司。

伯克希爾-哈撒韋公司(Berkshire Hathaway)的董事長(zhǎng)沃倫·巴菲特在1995年的一次股東大會(huì)上創(chuàng)造了“經(jīng)濟(jì)護(hù)城河”這一著名的術(shù)語(yǔ)。它指的是一家公司通過(guò)規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)、技術(shù)專(zhuān)長(zhǎng)、高啟動(dòng)成本或其他一些因素保持競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)的能力。或者正如巴菲特在1999年《財(cái)富》雜志的一篇文章中所說(shuō)的那樣:

“投資的關(guān)鍵不在于評(píng)估一個(gè)行業(yè)將對(duì)社會(huì)產(chǎn)生多大的影響,或者其增長(zhǎng)空間有多大,而在于確定任何特定公司的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì),最重要的是,這種優(yōu)勢(shì)的持久性。那些擁有寬廣的、可持續(xù)的護(hù)城河的產(chǎn)品或服務(wù),才會(huì)給投資者帶來(lái)回報(bào)。”

德默特也不是唯一一位看好擁有“護(hù)城河”的龍頭的人。美國(guó)銀行(Bank of America)的股票策略師薩維塔·蘇布拉馬尼安在4月24日的一份研究報(bào)告中列出了對(duì)股票近期前景持樂(lè)觀態(tài)度的10大理由。她解釋說(shuō),市場(chǎng)傾向于在夏季反彈;生產(chǎn)力出現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng),“這對(duì)利潤(rùn)率來(lái)說(shuō)是一個(gè)好兆頭”;私募股權(quán)公司在熊市中積累了接近創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的2.2萬(wàn)億美元的“基金備用金”,它們可以用這些“基金備用金”買(mǎi)入股票,這樣一來(lái)應(yīng)該會(huì)推高股價(jià)。

在對(duì)潛在經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的擔(dān)憂中,蘇布拉馬尼安告訴投資者不要擔(dān)心,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)有能力通過(guò)降息來(lái)“減輕影響”。她寫(xiě)道:“經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退時(shí)期應(yīng)該持有股票而不是債券。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:中慧言-王芳

世界上的許多大型投資銀行都警告說(shuō),隨著美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)繼續(xù)與通脹作斗爭(zhēng),在整個(gè)2023年股市都很容易受到經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的影響。盡管利率不斷上升,預(yù)測(cè)很悲觀,但標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)(S&P 500)今年給投資者帶來(lái)了超過(guò)8%的回報(bào),美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)也表現(xiàn)出了驚人的彈性。亞特蘭大聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行(Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)目前預(yù)計(jì),美國(guó)第一季度GDP增速將達(dá)到2.5%,此前美國(guó)3月的失業(yè)率仍然接近3.5%的歷史低點(diǎn)。因此,一些華爾街資深人士正在轉(zhuǎn)向看漲。

投資公司Main Street Research的創(chuàng)始人及首席投資官詹姆斯·德默特在4月24日對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示,他認(rèn)為股市正處于“熊市的最后階段,投資者應(yīng)該買(mǎi)入估值合理的優(yōu)秀公司的股票。”該公司管理著約20億美元的資產(chǎn)。

他說(shuō):“熊市即將結(jié)束,2023年下半年將迎來(lái)令人興奮的新牛市。”他特別指出了科技股的潛力。

在去年暴跌30%之后,科技股在2023年開(kāi)始復(fù)蘇,但德默特警告稱(chēng),該行業(yè)仍然存在風(fēng)險(xiǎn),而且有很多被高估的股票。他表示,一些投資者甚至可能對(duì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)通過(guò)降息來(lái)提振科技股的預(yù)期“過(guò)于樂(lè)觀”。但這并不意味著沒(méi)有值得買(mǎi)入的科技公司股票。德默特預(yù)計(jì),即使在經(jīng)濟(jì)不確定的情況下,包括蘋(píng)果(Apple)和微軟(Microsoft)在內(nèi)的許多大型科技公司以及網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全股今年也將達(dá)到或超過(guò)其盈利預(yù)期。

他表示:“我們認(rèn)為所有投資者都應(yīng)該有一份股價(jià)合理的科技龍頭股清單,并將一定現(xiàn)金配置到科技股中。”他補(bǔ)充道,現(xiàn)在是逢低買(mǎi)入的時(shí)候。

然而,德默特警告稱(chēng),不應(yīng)該大型科技公司“混為一談”,他指出,亞馬遜(Amazon)的市盈率接近80倍,仍然被高估。這位首席投資官表示,投資者應(yīng)該專(zhuān)注于尋找那些股價(jià)/市盈率有吸引力,且擁有“護(hù)城河”,能夠“在經(jīng)濟(jì)萎縮的情況下實(shí)現(xiàn)持續(xù)盈利”的公司。

伯克希爾-哈撒韋公司(Berkshire Hathaway)的董事長(zhǎng)沃倫·巴菲特在1995年的一次股東大會(huì)上創(chuàng)造了“經(jīng)濟(jì)護(hù)城河”這一著名的術(shù)語(yǔ)。它指的是一家公司通過(guò)規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)、技術(shù)專(zhuān)長(zhǎng)、高啟動(dòng)成本或其他一些因素保持競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)的能力。或者正如巴菲特在1999年《財(cái)富》雜志的一篇文章中所說(shuō)的那樣:

“投資的關(guān)鍵不在于評(píng)估一個(gè)行業(yè)將對(duì)社會(huì)產(chǎn)生多大的影響,或者其增長(zhǎng)空間有多大,而在于確定任何特定公司的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì),最重要的是,這種優(yōu)勢(shì)的持久性。那些擁有寬廣的、可持續(xù)的護(hù)城河的產(chǎn)品或服務(wù),才會(huì)給投資者帶來(lái)回報(bào)。”

德默特也不是唯一一位看好擁有“護(hù)城河”的龍頭的人。美國(guó)銀行(Bank of America)的股票策略師薩維塔·蘇布拉馬尼安在4月24日的一份研究報(bào)告中列出了對(duì)股票近期前景持樂(lè)觀態(tài)度的10大理由。她解釋說(shuō),市場(chǎng)傾向于在夏季反彈;生產(chǎn)力出現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng),“這對(duì)利潤(rùn)率來(lái)說(shuō)是一個(gè)好兆頭”;私募股權(quán)公司在熊市中積累了接近創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的2.2萬(wàn)億美元的“基金備用金”,它們可以用這些“基金備用金”買(mǎi)入股票,這樣一來(lái)應(yīng)該會(huì)推高股價(jià)。

在對(duì)潛在經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的擔(dān)憂中,蘇布拉馬尼安告訴投資者不要擔(dān)心,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)有能力通過(guò)降息來(lái)“減輕影響”。她寫(xiě)道:“經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退時(shí)期應(yīng)該持有股票而不是債券。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:中慧言-王芳

Many of the world’s largest investment banks have warned throughout 2023 that the stock market is vulnerable to a downturn as the Federal Reserve continues its battle with inflation. But despite the pessimistic forecasts and rising interest rates, the S&P 500 has returned more than 8% to investors this year and the economy has been remarkably resilient. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta now expects U.S. GDP growth to hit 2.5% in the first quarter after the unemployment rate remained near a record low in March at 3.5%. As a result, some Wall Street veterans are turning bullish.

James Demmert, founder and chief investment officer of investment firm Main Street Research, which manages roughly $2 billion in assets, told Fortune on April 24 that he believes stocks are in “the last phase of the bear market and investors should be wading into great companies that sell at reasonable valuations.”

“The bear [market] is almost over, and a new exciting bull market awaits in the second half of 2023,” he said, pointing to potential in technology stocks in particular.

After a 30% plunge in last year, tech stocks mounted a recovery in 2023, but Demmert warned that there are still risks in the sector, and plenty of overvalued equities. Some investors might even be “overly optimistic” about the potential for the Fed to boost tech shares by cutting interest rates, he said. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t tech companies worth owning. Demmert expects many big tech companies, including Apple and Microsoft, along with cybersecurity stocks, to meet or surpass their earnings expectations this year even amid economic uncertainty.

“We think all investors should have a list of attractive technology stocks that are reasonably priced and allocate some cash to tech stocks,” he said, adding that now is the time to buy any market dips.

However, Demmert cautioned that big tech companies “should not be lumped together,” noting that Amazon trades at nearly 80 times its earnings and remains overvalued. The CIO said investors should focus on finding companies that trade at attractive price/earnings ratios and have “moats” that will enable them to deliver “consistent earnings into a contracting economy” instead.

Berkshire Hathaway chairman Warren Buffett famously coined the term “economic moat” in a 1995 shareholder meeting. It refers to a company’s ability to maintain a competitive advantage over its peers through scale, technological expertise, high startup costs, or some other factor. Or as Buffett put it in a 1999 Fortune article:

“The key to investing is not assessing how much an industry is going to affect society, or how much it will grow, but rather determining the competitive advantage of any given company, and above all, the durability of that advantage. The products or services that have wide, sustainable moats around them are the ones that deliver rewards to investors.”

Demmert isn’t alone in his bullish outlook for stocks that are surrounded by moats either. Bank of America equity strategist Savita Subramanian laid out 10 reasons to be optimistic about the near-term prospects of stocks in a April 24 research note. She explained that the market tends to rally during the summer; the economy has seen strong productivity gains, “which bodes well for margins”; and private equity firms have built up a near record $2.2 trillion in “dry powder” amid the bear market that they could use to buy stocks, which should boost share prices.

And amid concerns over a potential recession, Subramanian told investors not to worry, the Fed has the ability to “soften the impact” through rate cuts. “Recession, shmecession,” she wrote. “Own stocks over bonds.”

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