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美國銀行CEO警告,美國公司必須為美債違約做好準(zhǔn)備

ELEANOR PRINGLE
2023-02-12

美國銀行CEO表示,美國經(jīng)濟依舊可能要受到政府貸款違約的影響。

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圖片來源:DREW ANGERER—GETTY IMAGES

十多年前,曾有多位銀行家致信美國國會,警告國會議員美國國家債務(wù)違約的嚴(yán)重后果,美國銀行(Bank of America)CEO布萊恩·莫伊尼漢就是其中之一。十二年后,莫伊尼漢表示,他和美國乃至全世界的公司領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者都必須做好準(zhǔn)備,迎接終究會發(fā)生的美國債務(wù)違約。這種情況極有可能發(fā)生。

莫伊尼漢在CNN《今晨》(This Morning)節(jié)目中表示,雖然他希望一直以來所擔(dān)心的問題不會真得發(fā)生,但希望“不是一種策略”。

在此之前,美國政府債務(wù)在1月19日達到31.4萬億美元的上限,國會為此連續(xù)數(shù)周爭吵不休。為了減少貸款違約的風(fēng)險,政客們通常會尋求提高債務(wù)上限。然而,隨著共和黨人最近掌管眾議院,并要求削減開支,提高債務(wù)上限的過程似乎將被拖得更長,并且可能導(dǎo)致故意違約。

美國財政部部長珍妮特·耶倫曾警告美國“自己造成的違約災(zāi)難”會影響全球經(jīng)濟,以及將提高債務(wù)上限與削減支出掛鉤的危害。

也有經(jīng)濟學(xué)家認(rèn)為,債務(wù)上限是“可笑的”,對于真正減少支出的作用無異于杯水車薪。億萬富翁投資者、大型投資管理公司橋水聯(lián)合基金(Bridgewater Associates)的創(chuàng)始人雷·達里奧在LinkedIn上撰文稱,債務(wù)上限“就像是一群酒鬼在起草強制限制飲酒的法律,只要達到規(guī)定的限制,他們就會進行荒唐的談判,臨時取消限制,讓他們可以再酗酒狂歡,直到達到新的限制,然后他們又會故技重施,繼續(xù)酗酒。”

在被問到債務(wù)上限是否“有必要”時,美國銀行的莫伊尼漢表示,在憲法的范圍內(nèi),債務(wù)上限會繼續(xù)發(fā)揮作用。他說道:“這是一個政治進程,作為一個國家,我們必須就如何做到量入為出展開討論,而且這場討論會繼續(xù)下去。國會掌控了財政大權(quán)。我對于修改美國憲法持謹(jǐn)慎的態(tài)度。美國憲法已經(jīng)存在了約250年時間,我們認(rèn)為應(yīng)該順其自然,并保證它正常運行。”

這位銀行老板并沒有批評導(dǎo)致達到債務(wù)上限的決策,他表示:“過去兩年,為了克服疫情對經(jīng)濟的拖累,我們不得不背負(fù)大量債務(wù)。在某種情況下,我們必須弄清楚這種做法未來如何發(fā)揮作用,但目前,我們必須解決調(diào)整技術(shù)結(jié)構(gòu)的問題。”

更樂觀的前景

雖然國會仍在就債務(wù)上限問題爭執(zhí)不休,但從多個重要經(jīng)濟指標(biāo)來看,目前的經(jīng)濟前景似乎好于預(yù)期。雖然投資銀行、經(jīng)濟學(xué)家和億萬富翁投資者都預(yù)測經(jīng)濟前景暗淡,但美國勞工統(tǒng)計局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)本月公布的勞動力市場數(shù)據(jù)卻顯示,美國失業(yè)率降至3.4%,為53年最低水平。耶倫表示,這個確切的信號表明美國經(jīng)濟“強勁且有彈性”。

莫伊尼漢也對這則消息感到振奮。他說道,就業(yè)是“美聯(lián)儲面臨的挑戰(zhàn)”之一,但盡管美聯(lián)儲加息,失業(yè)率卻依舊較低,這表明美聯(lián)儲的政策已經(jīng)發(fā)揮了預(yù)期效果,并沒有對經(jīng)濟造成傷害。

雖然他依舊預(yù)測美國將陷入“適度衰退”,但他認(rèn)為發(fā)生經(jīng)濟衰退的可能性變得越來越低。他還對中美之間的貿(mào)易緊張表示樂觀。他表示,對中美發(fā)生沖突的負(fù)面影響的擔(dān)憂,將是促使雙方“回到會議室”,通過談判緩解緊張局面的關(guān)鍵。(財富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:劉進龍

審校:汪皓

十多年前,曾有多位銀行家致信美國國會,警告國會議員美國國家債務(wù)違約的嚴(yán)重后果,美國銀行(Bank of America)CEO布萊恩·莫伊尼漢就是其中之一。十二年后,莫伊尼漢表示,他和美國乃至全世界的公司領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者都必須做好準(zhǔn)備,迎接終究會發(fā)生的美國債務(wù)違約。這種情況極有可能發(fā)生。

莫伊尼漢在CNN《今晨》(This Morning)節(jié)目中表示,雖然他希望一直以來所擔(dān)心的問題不會真得發(fā)生,但希望“不是一種策略”。

在此之前,美國政府債務(wù)在1月19日達到31.4萬億美元的上限,國會為此連續(xù)數(shù)周爭吵不休。為了減少貸款違約的風(fēng)險,政客們通常會尋求提高債務(wù)上限。然而,隨著共和黨人最近掌管眾議院,并要求削減開支,提高債務(wù)上限的過程似乎將被拖得更長,并且可能導(dǎo)致故意違約。

美國財政部部長珍妮特·耶倫曾警告美國“自己造成的違約災(zāi)難”會影響全球經(jīng)濟,以及將提高債務(wù)上限與削減支出掛鉤的危害。

也有經(jīng)濟學(xué)家認(rèn)為,債務(wù)上限是“可笑的”,對于真正減少支出的作用無異于杯水車薪。億萬富翁投資者、大型投資管理公司橋水聯(lián)合基金(Bridgewater Associates)的創(chuàng)始人雷·達里奧在LinkedIn上撰文稱,債務(wù)上限“就像是一群酒鬼在起草強制限制飲酒的法律,只要達到規(guī)定的限制,他們就會進行荒唐的談判,臨時取消限制,讓他們可以再酗酒狂歡,直到達到新的限制,然后他們又會故技重施,繼續(xù)酗酒。”

在被問到債務(wù)上限是否“有必要”時,美國銀行的莫伊尼漢表示,在憲法的范圍內(nèi),債務(wù)上限會繼續(xù)發(fā)揮作用。他說道:“這是一個政治進程,作為一個國家,我們必須就如何做到量入為出展開討論,而且這場討論會繼續(xù)下去。國會掌控了財政大權(quán)。我對于修改美國憲法持謹(jǐn)慎的態(tài)度。美國憲法已經(jīng)存在了約250年時間,我們認(rèn)為應(yīng)該順其自然,并保證它正常運行。”

這位銀行老板并沒有批評導(dǎo)致達到債務(wù)上限的決策,他表示:“過去兩年,為了克服疫情對經(jīng)濟的拖累,我們不得不背負(fù)大量債務(wù)。在某種情況下,我們必須弄清楚這種做法未來如何發(fā)揮作用,但目前,我們必須解決調(diào)整技術(shù)結(jié)構(gòu)的問題。”

更樂觀的前景

雖然國會仍在就債務(wù)上限問題爭執(zhí)不休,但從多個重要經(jīng)濟指標(biāo)來看,目前的經(jīng)濟前景似乎好于預(yù)期。雖然投資銀行、經(jīng)濟學(xué)家和億萬富翁投資者都預(yù)測經(jīng)濟前景暗淡,但美國勞工統(tǒng)計局(Bureau of Labor Statistics)本月公布的勞動力市場數(shù)據(jù)卻顯示,美國失業(yè)率降至3.4%,為53年最低水平。耶倫表示,這個確切的信號表明美國經(jīng)濟“強勁且有彈性”。

莫伊尼漢也對這則消息感到振奮。他說道,就業(yè)是“美聯(lián)儲面臨的挑戰(zhàn)”之一,但盡管美聯(lián)儲加息,失業(yè)率卻依舊較低,這表明美聯(lián)儲的政策已經(jīng)發(fā)揮了預(yù)期效果,并沒有對經(jīng)濟造成傷害。

雖然他依舊預(yù)測美國將陷入“適度衰退”,但他認(rèn)為發(fā)生經(jīng)濟衰退的可能性變得越來越低。他還對中美之間的貿(mào)易緊張表示樂觀。他表示,對中美發(fā)生沖突的負(fù)面影響的擔(dān)憂,將是促使雙方“回到會議室”,通過談判緩解緊張局面的關(guān)鍵。(財富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:劉進龍

審校:汪皓

More than a decade ago, Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan was one of a handful of bankers to write to Congress warning lawmakers how terrible it would be to default on the country’s debt. Twelve years on and Moynihan has said that both he and corporate leaders across America and around the world must be prepared for the real possibility that it could finally happen.

Speaking on CNN This Morning, Moynihan said that although he is hoping his long-held fears won’t come true, hope simply “isn’t a strategy.”

Moynihan’s words come following weeks of congressional bickering after the U.S. government hit its debt ceiling of $31.4 trillion on Jan. 19. Typically politicians will seek to raise this ceiling to alleviate the risk of defaulting on loans. However, with the Republicans recently taking control of the House of Representatives—and demanding spending cuts—it seems that the process will take longer than usual and could lead to an intentional default.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned of the “self-inflicted calamity” a default would inflict on the global economy, and of the dangers of linking an increase in the debt ceiling to cuts.

Other economists believe the debt ceiling is a “farce” that has little teeth to actually curb spending. Ray Dalio, billionaire investor and founder of the investment management giant Bridgewater Associates, wrote on LinkedIn that the cap is “l(fā)ike a bunch of alcoholics who write laws to enforce drinking limits, and when a limit is reached, they do a farcical negotiation that temporarily eliminates the limit which allows them to have the next drinking binge until they reach the next limit at which time they go through the next farcical negotiation and continue to binge.”

When asked whether or not the limit is “worth it,” Bank of America’s Moynihan voiced his belief in continuing to work within the parameters of the Constitution. “It’s a political process and there’s got to be an argument about how we make sure we live within our means as a country, and that argument’s going to go on,” he said. “Congress has the purse strings. I would be careful about trying to restructure the U.S. Constitution. It’s been around for 250 years almost, I think we should leave it alone and make sure it operates correctly.”

The banking boss wasn’t critical of the decisions that led to the ceiling being reached, adding, “We had to put on a lot of debt over the past couple of years to overcome the pandemic drag on the economy. At some point we’ve got to figure out how that works in the future, but right now we’ve got to get past the issues of just getting through the technical structure.”

Rosier outlook

As the debt ceiling bickering continues in Congress, the current economic outlook appears rosier than expected by several key economic measures. Despite ongoing doom and gloom predictions from investment banks, economists, and billionaire investors, labor market data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released this month showed the unemployment rate fell to a 53-year low of 3.4%. A sure sign, Yellen added, that the economy is “strong and resilient.”

Moynihan was also buoyed by the news. Employment is one of the “challenges for the Fed,” he said, but the fact that unemployment had remained low despite the central bank raising rates was a sign the policy has had its desired effects without being detrimental to the economy.

And although the CEO is still predicting a “mild recession,” he added that the prospect of one is growing more distant. He was also sanguine about trade tensions with China, saying that the fear of a negative impact from a falling out between China and the U.S. would be key to getting people “back in a room” to ease tensions through negotiations.

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