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美聯儲為遏制通脹可能大幅加息,不惜引發經濟衰退

彭博社
2022-12-09

美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾擔心工資會出現螺旋式上升。

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圖片來源:VALERIE PLESCH—BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES

美聯儲官員有足夠多令人擔憂的通脹數據,可以考慮將利率提高到高于投資者預期的峰值,并可能在本月加息50個基點之后,在2月份再次加息50個基點。

周五公布的一份報告顯示,美國上月工資增長速度達到1月份以來的最高水平,就業人數增幅超過預期。這引起美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾的擔憂。他本周警告說,要給接近40年高位的通脹率降溫,就需要就業市場和收入增長放緩。

鮑威爾和他的同事們現在處于會議前的消息封鎖狀態,他們此前強烈暗示,在連續4次加息75個基點后,他們將在12月13日至14日的會議上將利率下調至50個基點。他還表示,他們可能需要上調利率,9月份的預測中值顯示,明年利率將從當前3.75%-4%的目標區間升至4.6%。

威爾明頓信托公司(Wilmington Trust Co.)的高級經濟學家瑞亞·托馬斯(Rhea Thomas)表示:“鮑威爾暗示,我們還沒有進入工資螺旋式上升階段,但這種風險仍然存在。這讓人們認為他們可能不得不上調利率峰值,并可能在更長時間內保持這一水平。”

在就業報告公布后,對本月加息幅度降至50個基點的押注沒有改變,投資者認為美聯儲在1月31日至2月1日的會議上可能再次加息50個基點。期貨市場的定價顯示,利率將在明年達到4.9%左右的峰值。

官員們將在12月的會議上更新季度預測,并可能將明年利率峰值的預測中值上調至5%或以上。圣路易斯聯邦儲備銀行行長詹姆斯·布拉德(James Bullard)呼吁將利率峰值上調為至少5.25%,包括畢馬威(KPMG LLP)首席經濟學家黛安·斯旺克(Diane Swonk)在內的一些分析師認為利率將高達5.5%,美聯儲不惜在必要時引發經濟衰退以恢復物價穩定。

如果不治療,通脹就會“轉移”

“通脹就像癌癥:如果不治療,它就會轉移,變成慢性疾病。”斯旺克說。加息這一“治療方法”意味著“2023年將變得很艱難”。

美聯儲官員將在12月的會議之前獲得一份額外的消費者物價報告,在明年初再次開會之前還有一個月的數據可供考量。

鮑威爾周三表示,工資上漲可能是影響通脹的“一個非常重要的因素”。他表示,盡管商品的供應鏈困境似乎正在緩解,這有助于改善該行業的價格前景,但薪資是服務業的最大成本,因此勞動力狀況是了解從酒店到理發等方方面面價格前景的關鍵。

就業報告顯示,11月份的平均時薪增長了0.6%,為1月份以來的最大漲幅,比上年同期增長了5.1%。生產和非監督勞工的工資較上月上漲0.7%,為近一年來的最大漲幅。加薪的速度與美聯儲2%的通脹目標不一致。

“勞動力市場的壓力依然存在,如果說有什么問題的話,那就是和以往一樣糟糕。”Dreyfus and Mellon首席分析師文森特·萊因哈特(Vincent Reinhart)表示。“鑒于他們認為——至少鮑威爾認為——通脹壓力已深深滲透消費者物價籃子,他們希望實現更實際的控制。”

雖然央行行長已經設定了低于增長趨勢水平的增長目標,以緩解物價壓力,但上個月新增的26.3萬個工作崗位——使失業率保持在3.7%——是美國經濟仍然保持彈性的最新證據。根據亞特蘭大聯邦儲備銀行的跟蹤估計,第四季度的增速可能為2.8%,遠高于長期可持續的預期。

盡管美聯儲領導人暗示本月有可能將利率下調至50個基點,但他們試圖將投資者的關注點從每次會議的加息幅度轉移到利率何時見頂。

他們還強調了之前加息的累積影響,以及政策發揮作用具有滯后性的觀點。這引發人們猜測,他們可能會在明年將加息幅度降至25個基點,以降低加息幅度過大帶來的風險。

即便如此,最新的就業報告可能會促使官員們考慮明年初再加息50個基點。

Pictet Wealth Management的資深美國經濟學家托馬斯·科斯特格(Thomas Costerg)說:“美聯儲——尤其是鮑威爾——非常關注由勞動力市場驅動的通脹來源,這份報告將使他保持高度警惕。我認為他們可能在接下來的美聯儲會議上再加息50個基點。”

勞動力短缺助長了通貨膨脹

勞動力增長速度遠低于預期,在新冠肺炎疫情導致提前退休和2020年開始改變工作模式后,勞動力比預期減少了350萬人。這種情況短期內不會改變。

里士滿聯邦儲備銀行行長托馬斯·巴爾金(Thomas Barkin)上周五表示:“勞動力短缺助長了通貨膨脹。”隨著美國嬰兒潮一代的退休,這種情況可能會長期持續下去。他說,盡管美聯儲迅速加息,“我們已經看到勞動力市場持續供不應求。”

在即將召開的會議上,美聯儲官員可能還想強調他們堅持提高利率的決心,以反擊華爾街,因為華爾街認為,美聯儲計劃下調加息幅度是放寬金融環境,這可能是不受歡迎的。美聯儲一直在刻意收緊環境,以減少需求和緩解價格壓力。

“更廣泛的金融環境正變得更加寬松。我不清楚美聯儲是否取得了重大進展。”Amherst Pierpont Securities LLC的首席經濟學家史蒂芬·斯坦利(Stephen Stanley)說,“美聯儲還有很多工作要做,要給經濟降溫,特別是給勞動力市場降溫,使通貨膨脹達到他們想要的水平。誠然,我們還沒達到目標水平。”(財富中文網)

譯者:中慧言-王芳

美聯儲官員有足夠多令人擔憂的通脹數據,可以考慮將利率提高到高于投資者預期的峰值,并可能在本月加息50個基點之后,在2月份再次加息50個基點。

周五公布的一份報告顯示,美國上月工資增長速度達到1月份以來的最高水平,就業人數增幅超過預期。這引起美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾的擔憂。他本周警告說,要給接近40年高位的通脹率降溫,就需要就業市場和收入增長放緩。

鮑威爾和他的同事們現在處于會議前的消息封鎖狀態,他們此前強烈暗示,在連續4次加息75個基點后,他們將在12月13日至14日的會議上將利率下調至50個基點。他還表示,他們可能需要上調利率,9月份的預測中值顯示,明年利率將從當前3.75%-4%的目標區間升至4.6%。

威爾明頓信托公司(Wilmington Trust Co.)的高級經濟學家瑞亞·托馬斯(Rhea Thomas)表示:“鮑威爾暗示,我們還沒有進入工資螺旋式上升階段,但這種風險仍然存在。這讓人們認為他們可能不得不上調利率峰值,并可能在更長時間內保持這一水平。”

在就業報告公布后,對本月加息幅度降至50個基點的押注沒有改變,投資者認為美聯儲在1月31日至2月1日的會議上可能再次加息50個基點。期貨市場的定價顯示,利率將在明年達到4.9%左右的峰值。

官員們將在12月的會議上更新季度預測,并可能將明年利率峰值的預測中值上調至5%或以上。圣路易斯聯邦儲備銀行行長詹姆斯·布拉德(James Bullard)呼吁將利率峰值上調為至少5.25%,包括畢馬威(KPMG LLP)首席經濟學家黛安·斯旺克(Diane Swonk)在內的一些分析師認為利率將高達5.5%,美聯儲不惜在必要時引發經濟衰退以恢復物價穩定。

如果不治療,通脹就會“轉移”

“通脹就像癌癥:如果不治療,它就會轉移,變成慢性疾病。”斯旺克說。加息這一“治療方法”意味著“2023年將變得很艱難”。

美聯儲官員將在12月的會議之前獲得一份額外的消費者物價報告,在明年初再次開會之前還有一個月的數據可供考量。

鮑威爾周三表示,工資上漲可能是影響通脹的“一個非常重要的因素”。他表示,盡管商品的供應鏈困境似乎正在緩解,這有助于改善該行業的價格前景,但薪資是服務業的最大成本,因此勞動力狀況是了解從酒店到理發等方方面面價格前景的關鍵。

就業報告顯示,11月份的平均時薪增長了0.6%,為1月份以來的最大漲幅,比上年同期增長了5.1%。生產和非監督勞工的工資較上月上漲0.7%,為近一年來的最大漲幅。加薪的速度與美聯儲2%的通脹目標不一致。

“勞動力市場的壓力依然存在,如果說有什么問題的話,那就是和以往一樣糟糕。”Dreyfus and Mellon首席分析師文森特·萊因哈特(Vincent Reinhart)表示。“鑒于他們認為——至少鮑威爾認為——通脹壓力已深深滲透消費者物價籃子,他們希望實現更實際的控制。”

雖然央行行長已經設定了低于增長趨勢水平的增長目標,以緩解物價壓力,但上個月新增的26.3萬個工作崗位——使失業率保持在3.7%——是美國經濟仍然保持彈性的最新證據。根據亞特蘭大聯邦儲備銀行的跟蹤估計,第四季度的增速可能為2.8%,遠高于長期可持續的預期。

盡管美聯儲領導人暗示本月有可能將利率下調至50個基點,但他們試圖將投資者的關注點從每次會議的加息幅度轉移到利率何時見頂。

他們還強調了之前加息的累積影響,以及政策發揮作用具有滯后性的觀點。這引發人們猜測,他們可能會在明年將加息幅度降至25個基點,以降低加息幅度過大帶來的風險。

即便如此,最新的就業報告可能會促使官員們考慮明年初再加息50個基點。

Pictet Wealth Management的資深美國經濟學家托馬斯·科斯特格(Thomas Costerg)說:“美聯儲——尤其是鮑威爾——非常關注由勞動力市場驅動的通脹來源,這份報告將使他保持高度警惕。我認為他們可能在接下來的美聯儲會議上再加息50個基點。”

勞動力短缺助長了通貨膨脹

勞動力增長速度遠低于預期,在新冠肺炎疫情導致提前退休和2020年開始改變工作模式后,勞動力比預期減少了350萬人。這種情況短期內不會改變。

里士滿聯邦儲備銀行行長托馬斯·巴爾金(Thomas Barkin)上周五表示:“勞動力短缺助長了通貨膨脹。”隨著美國嬰兒潮一代的退休,這種情況可能會長期持續下去。他說,盡管美聯儲迅速加息,“我們已經看到勞動力市場持續供不應求。”

在即將召開的會議上,美聯儲官員可能還想強調他們堅持提高利率的決心,以反擊華爾街,因為華爾街認為,美聯儲計劃下調加息幅度是放寬金融環境,這可能是不受歡迎的。美聯儲一直在刻意收緊環境,以減少需求和緩解價格壓力。

“更廣泛的金融環境正變得更加寬松。我不清楚美聯儲是否取得了重大進展。”Amherst Pierpont Securities LLC的首席經濟學家史蒂芬·斯坦利(Stephen Stanley)說,“美聯儲還有很多工作要做,要給經濟降溫,特別是給勞動力市場降溫,使通貨膨脹達到他們想要的水平。誠然,我們還沒達到目標水平。”(財富中文網)

譯者:中慧言-王芳

Federal Reserve officials have enough worrisome inflation data to consider raising interest rates to a higher peak than investors expect and potentially follow the half-point hike they’ve signaled this month with the same again in February.

Monthly wages rose at the strongest pace since January and US employment surged more than forecast last month, a report showed Friday. That will concern Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who this week cautioned that slacker job-market conditions and less-lofty earnings growth were needed to cool an inflation rate near a 40-year high.

Powell and his colleagues, now in their pre-meeting blackout, have strongly suggested they would downshift to a half-point move at their Dec. 13-14 gathering, after four straight 75 basis-point increases. He’s also said they likely will need higher rates than they thought in September, when the median forecast saw them at 4.6% next year from a current target range of 3.75% to 4%.

“Powell has suggested that we’re not in a wage-growth spiral yet, but that risk is still there,” said Rhea Thomas, senior economist at Wilmington Trust Co. “This keeps in play this idea that they may have to raise the peak rate and potentially keep it in place for longer.”

Bets on a downshift to a half-point hike this month were intact after the employment report and investors saw the likelihood of the same again at the Fed’s Jan. 31-Feb. 1 meeting as roughly balanced. Pricing in futures markets shows rates peaking around 4.9% next year.

Officials will update their quarterly forecasts at the December meeting and could lift their median projection for the rate peak next year to 5% or above. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard has called for a minimum 5.25% peak and some analysts, including Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG LLP, see rates as high as 5.5%, with the Fed willing to cause a recession if necessary to restore price stability.

Inflation ‘metastasizes’ if not treated

“Inflation is like a cancer: if not treated, it metastasizes and becomes much more chronic,” Swonk said. “The cure” of higher rates means “it’s going to be a rough 2023.”

Fed officials will get an additional consumer-price report before the December meeting and have another month of data to mull before they gather again early next year.

Powell on Wednesday said rising wages are likely to be “a very important part of the story” on inflation. While supply-chain difficulties seem to be easing for goods, helping the price outlook in that sector, he said wages are the largest cost for the services sector, so labor conditions are key to understanding the outlook on prices on everything from hotels to haircuts.

The jobs report showed average hourly earnings jumped 0.6% in November in a broad-based gain that was the biggest since January, and were up 5.1% from a year earlier. Wages for production and nonsupervisory workers climbed 0.7% from the prior month, the most in almost a year. The pace of pay raises is inconsistent with the Fed’s 2% inflation target.

“Pressures remain in the labor market and if anything are as bad as they’ve been,” said Vincent Reinhart, chief economist at Dreyfus and Mellon. “They want a little more real restraint given that they believe — at least Powell believes — inflation pressures are embedded deeply into the consumer price basket.”

While central bankers have set a goal of below-trend growth to cool price pressures, the addition of 263,000 jobs last month — leaving the unemployment rate at 3.7% — is the latest evidence that the US economy remains resilient. Growth in the fourth quarter may be 2.8%, well above estimates of what is sustainable in the loing term, according to the Atlanta Fed’s tracking estimate.

While Fed leaders have suggested there’s scope to moderate to 50 basis points this month, they have sought to shift the focus of investors to where rates peak from the size of moves made at each meeting.

They have also emphasized the cumulative impact of prior increases and the notion that policy works with a lag. That’s encouraged speculation they could step down to 25 basis-point moves next year to reduce the risk they go too far.

Even so, the latest jobs report could prod officials to consider another 50 basis points early next year.

“The Fed — and Powell in particular — is very much focused on labor-market driven sources of inflation and this report will keep him on high alert,” said Thomas Costerg, senior US economist at Pictet Wealth Management. “I think they can carry on with another 50 at the following Fed meeting.”

‘This labor shortage has helped feed inflation’

The labor force is growing much more slowly than expected, with 3.5 million fewer workers than expected after Covid-19 prompted early retirements and changed work patterns starting in 2020. That’s not seen changing anytime soon.

“This labor shortage has helped feed inflation,” Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said Friday, and with US baby boomers retiring, that’s likely to continue over the long term. Even though the Fed has quickly raised rates, “we have seen labor demand continue to run ahead of supply,” he said.

At the upcoming meeting, Fed officials may also want to highlight their steadfastness on higher rates to lean against Wall Street, which has reacted to the planned downshift with an easing of financial conditions that may be unwelcome. The Fed has been deliberately trying to tighten conditions to reduce demand and ease price pressures.

“Broader financial conditions are getting easier. It’s not clear to me that the Fed’s making a lot of progress.” said Stephen Stanley, chief economist, for Amherst Pierpont Securities LLC. “The Fed has a lot of work to do still to cool the economy off enough and in particular the labor market enough to get to where they want to be on inflation. We’re certainly not there yet.”

—With assistance from Rich Miller.

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