你或許一直在觀望,不知道什么時(shí)候進(jìn)入市場(chǎng)才是安全的。你或許一直擔(dān)心在股市下跌的時(shí)候,變成接盤(pán)俠,就像俗話說(shuō)的“接落下來(lái)的刀子”。事實(shí)上,這可能是投資者最艱難的決定之一:既想在股票估值下跌時(shí)抄底,又知道你可能永遠(yuǎn)把握不準(zhǔn)股市觸底的時(shí)機(jī)。為此,我們采訪了三位知名專(zhuān)家,向他們請(qǐng)教了2023年的投資方向和方式。令人意外的是,這三位專(zhuān)家對(duì)于現(xiàn)在如何投資25,000美元,給出了截然不同的建議。
專(zhuān)家的建議假設(shè)的流動(dòng)性相對(duì)有限,并且投資期限約為七年。他們提到在確定投資方式和方向時(shí),需要考慮通脹、利率上浮等多個(gè)因素。我們采訪的所有專(zhuān)家都建議在進(jìn)行任何投資之前要預(yù)留“雨天資金”,并選擇多樣化的“投資之后無(wú)需理會(huì)”的投資組合。致力于指導(dǎo)女性投資的金融教育公司Dow Janes的創(chuàng)始人布里特·貝克表示:“在進(jìn)行投資時(shí)最重要的因素是時(shí)間。我們鼓勵(lì)人們投資指數(shù)基金和目標(biāo)日期基金;理想情況下應(yīng)該投資10年以上。只要你能與市場(chǎng)趨勢(shì)保持一致,就能獲得豐厚回報(bào)。”
2023年的投資對(duì)象
希瑟·盧米斯·泰伊
風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資本顧問(wèn)與合伙人以及家族理財(cái)辦公室戰(zhàn)略顧問(wèn)(前貝萊德(BlackRock)和摩根大通(JPMorgan)執(zhí)行董事)
泰伊警告,美國(guó)正在反復(fù)逼近她所說(shuō)的“投資的百慕大三角”,那就是滯脹。雖然在這種情況下,常見(jiàn)的建議是避免投資大宗商品(黃金、白銀、房地產(chǎn)),但泰伊認(rèn)為她推薦的投資策略,有助于提高靈活性,對(duì)沖利率上浮,并增加對(duì)增長(zhǎng)性行業(yè)的投資。
她表示:“有一種說(shuō)法是現(xiàn)金為王。我會(huì)將35%的資金投入市政資金市場(chǎng)和短期市政債券,可以獲得2%至3.5%的聯(lián)邦稅收減免。”泰伊表示每個(gè)月會(huì)將4%的資金投入多樣化股票市場(chǎng),持續(xù)六個(gè)月,11%的資金作為現(xiàn)金和投入市政債券,六個(gè)月后平均投入到股票市場(chǎng)。然后她推薦了iBond,這是一種聯(lián)邦政府擔(dān)保債券投資,其利率會(huì)與通脹同步。目前,iBond的回報(bào)率約為9%,接近長(zhǎng)期股票投資的回報(bào)率。
最后,泰伊還推薦標(biāo)普500交易所交易基金。她尤其關(guān)注投資生物科技和云計(jì)算領(lǐng)域的基金,尤其是SPDR標(biāo)普生物科技ETF(SPDR S&P Biotech ETF)(交易代碼:XBI)和智慧樹(shù)云計(jì)算基金(Wisdom Tree Cloud Computing Fund)(交易代碼:WCLD),這是她首選的成長(zhǎng)型基金。她表示:“我認(rèn)為這些行業(yè)有巨大的需求。云計(jì)算是通過(guò)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)交付的軟件、分析和情報(bào)。所有公司都需要這類(lèi)軟件,并且它們會(huì)成為公司業(yè)務(wù)的核心,而且我們目前還在轉(zhuǎn)型的起步階段。”泰伊表示,生物科技板塊也有強(qiáng)大的利好消息,因?yàn)殡S著人口老齡化,面對(duì)老年疾病和慢性病,生物科技領(lǐng)域?qū)⒊霈F(xiàn)驚人創(chuàng)新,而當(dāng)消費(fèi)者的身心健康面臨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)時(shí),他們會(huì)愿意支付這種鋼性支出。
大衛(wèi)·利瓦伊
布魯克菲爾德橡樹(shù)財(cái)富解決方案(Brookfield Oaktree Wealth Solutions)主理合伙人
利瓦伊認(rèn)為最佳投資對(duì)象是不動(dòng)產(chǎn)。在私營(yíng)市場(chǎng)和股票債券市場(chǎng),房地產(chǎn)、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和可再生能源電力為投資者提供了一種不錯(cuò)的另類(lèi)投資策略。利瓦伊的公司管理的另類(lèi)投資項(xiàng)目規(guī)模達(dá)到8,000億美元。他表示:“考慮到目前的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境,我認(rèn)為60/40的投資組合配置是不夠的。增加另類(lèi)投資變得更加重要。”
尋找一家投資上市基建項(xiàng)目的共同基金,能夠有效對(duì)沖通脹,這類(lèi)基金與股市的關(guān)聯(lián)性相對(duì)較弱,有助于制定一種防御性的投資策略。利瓦伊推薦的是布魯克菲爾德全球上市基建基金(Brookfield Global Listed Infrastructure Fund)。利瓦伊認(rèn)為,隨著全球力爭(zhēng)脫碳,可再生能源、電力公司、交通和通信基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施等領(lǐng)域,成為橡樹(shù)財(cái)富重點(diǎn)投資的子行業(yè)。他表示:“我們的投資對(duì)象具有基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的穩(wěn)定特征,有穩(wěn)定的現(xiàn)金流和一定的通脹對(duì)沖作用。它們都有宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)方面的利好消息。”
在房地產(chǎn)行業(yè),利瓦伊看好布魯克菲爾德房地產(chǎn)收益信托(Income Trust)投資組合的多樣化,他表示橡樹(shù)財(cái)富每天都在按照類(lèi)似的比例配置資金。“我們?cè)谠S多領(lǐng)域看到了機(jī)會(huì),尤其是美國(guó)的高增長(zhǎng)市場(chǎng)中,例如多戶(hù)住宅、公寓建筑、學(xué)生住房等。”隨著租金上漲,這筆收入將變得更有意義。利瓦伊表示:“現(xiàn)在人們需要選擇多樣化的投資組合,在這個(gè)時(shí)期,人們需要投資組合具有對(duì)沖通脹的效果。一年前,我可能會(huì)有額外收入,但現(xiàn)在這已經(jīng)發(fā)生了改變。”
路易斯·弗洛郎坦-李
拉扎德資產(chǎn)管理公司(Lazard Asset Management)投資組合經(jīng)理,拉扎德國(guó)際優(yōu)質(zhì)增長(zhǎng)投資組合(Lazard International Quality Growth Portfolio)
在目前的市場(chǎng)環(huán)境中,如果你有意投資個(gè)股,弗洛郎坦-李建議考慮三個(gè)因素:定價(jià)權(quán)、杠桿和彈性。他表示:“你需要確定公司的定價(jià)權(quán),因?yàn)楣緭碛卸▋r(jià)權(quán),就能轉(zhuǎn)嫁上漲的成本,避免可怕的盈利能力下降。前提是他們能夠?yàn)榭蛻?hù)創(chuàng)造真正的附加價(jià)值。”此外,如果公司過(guò)度負(fù)債并且無(wú)法生成足夠現(xiàn)金維持自籌資金發(fā)展,利率上浮將令這些公司面臨滅頂之災(zāi)。當(dāng)然,在評(píng)估一家公司的投資潛力時(shí),還需要考慮該公司在以往經(jīng)濟(jì)下滑周期的表現(xiàn)。
弗洛郎坦-李認(rèn)為IT是每個(gè)行業(yè)每家公司都需要考慮的一個(gè)戰(zhàn)略性領(lǐng)域。他表示:“這些決策現(xiàn)在被擺上了CEO們的案頭。我需要將業(yè)務(wù)轉(zhuǎn)移到云平臺(tái)。我需要可靠的照片安全保障政策。我如何看待人工智能?”弗洛郎坦-李認(rèn)為埃森哲(Accenture)符合這三個(gè)條件。埃森哲有獨(dú)特的優(yōu)勢(shì),因?yàn)樵摴九c《財(cái)富》500強(qiáng)公司的許多高管建立了長(zhǎng)期關(guān)系,而且公司能夠參與大量改造項(xiàng)目,為客戶(hù)重新布置和改造技術(shù)系統(tǒng),并且積累了豐富經(jīng)驗(yàn)。
弗洛郎坦-李看好的另外一家公司是RELX(紐約證券交易所交易代碼:RELX),該公司40%的業(yè)務(wù)來(lái)自科技和醫(yī)學(xué)學(xué)術(shù)期刊。他說(shuō)道:“學(xué)術(shù)期刊是很好的業(yè)務(wù);它們對(duì)學(xué)者至關(guān)重要,決定了他們下一個(gè)研究項(xiàng)目如何獲得資金,代表了最優(yōu)秀的科學(xué)思想。而且,它們?cè)诟咝VС鲋兴嫉谋壤^小。期刊的續(xù)訂率達(dá)到90%,營(yíng)業(yè)利潤(rùn)率為25%至30%。”此外,RELX有一項(xiàng)高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)業(yè)務(wù),為保險(xiǎn)公司提供至關(guān)重要的事故索賠數(shù)據(jù)。事實(shí)上,該公司擁有美國(guó)最大的索賠數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù),而保險(xiǎn)公司只需要付出少量成本,還可能獲得附加服務(wù),例如無(wú)索賠折扣和綜合保單報(bào)告。弗洛郎坦-李表示:“他們的業(yè)務(wù)都是客戶(hù)絕對(duì)不可或缺的,這是一重可靠的保障。”
弗洛郎坦-李提供的最后一條建議是選擇在一個(gè)小眾行業(yè)占主導(dǎo)地位的公司。他表示:“小眾市場(chǎng)決定了大公司不太可能進(jìn)入這個(gè)行業(yè)。”他推薦哪家公司?東映動(dòng)畫(huà)(TYO:4816)。這家日本公司擁有許多業(yè)內(nèi)最優(yōu)秀的IP,并且能夠利用其在日本電視行業(yè)的知名度進(jìn)軍游戲行業(yè),為公司創(chuàng)造收入。 “該公司的利潤(rùn)率很高;育碧(Ubisoft)或者另外一家同行制作游戲,而東映動(dòng)畫(huà)只需要許可版權(quán),其利潤(rùn)率幾乎達(dá)到100%。這家公司并沒(méi)有引起大多數(shù)人的關(guān)注。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
本文為《財(cái)富》雜志2022年第4季度投資指南的一部分。
翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
你或許一直在觀望,不知道什么時(shí)候進(jìn)入市場(chǎng)才是安全的。你或許一直擔(dān)心在股市下跌的時(shí)候,變成接盤(pán)俠,就像俗話說(shuō)的“接落下來(lái)的刀子”。事實(shí)上,這可能是投資者最艱難的決定之一:既想在股票估值下跌時(shí)抄底,又知道你可能永遠(yuǎn)把握不準(zhǔn)股市觸底的時(shí)機(jī)。為此,我們采訪了三位知名專(zhuān)家,向他們請(qǐng)教了2023年的投資方向和方式。令人意外的是,這三位專(zhuān)家對(duì)于現(xiàn)在如何投資25,000美元,給出了截然不同的建議。
專(zhuān)家的建議假設(shè)的流動(dòng)性相對(duì)有限,并且投資期限約為七年。他們提到在確定投資方式和方向時(shí),需要考慮通脹、利率上浮等多個(gè)因素。我們采訪的所有專(zhuān)家都建議在進(jìn)行任何投資之前要預(yù)留“雨天資金”,并選擇多樣化的“投資之后無(wú)需理會(huì)”的投資組合。致力于指導(dǎo)女性投資的金融教育公司Dow Janes的創(chuàng)始人布里特·貝克表示:“在進(jìn)行投資時(shí)最重要的因素是時(shí)間。我們鼓勵(lì)人們投資指數(shù)基金和目標(biāo)日期基金;理想情況下應(yīng)該投資10年以上。只要你能與市場(chǎng)趨勢(shì)保持一致,就能獲得豐厚回報(bào)。”
2023年的投資對(duì)象
希瑟·盧米斯·泰伊
風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資本顧問(wèn)與合伙人以及家族理財(cái)辦公室戰(zhàn)略顧問(wèn)(前貝萊德(BlackRock)和摩根大通(JPMorgan)執(zhí)行董事)
泰伊警告,美國(guó)正在反復(fù)逼近她所說(shuō)的“投資的百慕大三角”,那就是滯脹。雖然在這種情況下,常見(jiàn)的建議是避免投資大宗商品(黃金、白銀、房地產(chǎn)),但泰伊認(rèn)為她推薦的投資策略,有助于提高靈活性,對(duì)沖利率上浮,并增加對(duì)增長(zhǎng)性行業(yè)的投資。
她表示:“有一種說(shuō)法是現(xiàn)金為王。我會(huì)將35%的資金投入市政資金市場(chǎng)和短期市政債券,可以獲得2%至3.5%的聯(lián)邦稅收減免。”泰伊表示每個(gè)月會(huì)將4%的資金投入多樣化股票市場(chǎng),持續(xù)六個(gè)月,11%的資金作為現(xiàn)金和投入市政債券,六個(gè)月后平均投入到股票市場(chǎng)。然后她推薦了iBond,這是一種聯(lián)邦政府擔(dān)保債券投資,其利率會(huì)與通脹同步。目前,iBond的回報(bào)率約為9%,接近長(zhǎng)期股票投資的回報(bào)率。
最后,泰伊還推薦標(biāo)普500交易所交易基金。她尤其關(guān)注投資生物科技和云計(jì)算領(lǐng)域的基金,尤其是SPDR標(biāo)普生物科技ETF(SPDR S&P Biotech ETF)(交易代碼:XBI)和智慧樹(shù)云計(jì)算基金(Wisdom Tree Cloud Computing Fund)(交易代碼:WCLD),這是她首選的成長(zhǎng)型基金。她表示:“我認(rèn)為這些行業(yè)有巨大的需求。云計(jì)算是通過(guò)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)交付的軟件、分析和情報(bào)。所有公司都需要這類(lèi)軟件,并且它們會(huì)成為公司業(yè)務(wù)的核心,而且我們目前還在轉(zhuǎn)型的起步階段。”泰伊表示,生物科技板塊也有強(qiáng)大的利好消息,因?yàn)殡S著人口老齡化,面對(duì)老年疾病和慢性病,生物科技領(lǐng)域?qū)⒊霈F(xiàn)驚人創(chuàng)新,而當(dāng)消費(fèi)者的身心健康面臨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)時(shí),他們會(huì)愿意支付這種鋼性支出。
大衛(wèi)·利瓦伊
布魯克菲爾德橡樹(shù)財(cái)富解決方案(Brookfield Oaktree Wealth Solutions)主理合伙人
利瓦伊認(rèn)為最佳投資對(duì)象是不動(dòng)產(chǎn)。在私營(yíng)市場(chǎng)和股票債券市場(chǎng),房地產(chǎn)、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和可再生能源電力為投資者提供了一種不錯(cuò)的另類(lèi)投資策略。利瓦伊的公司管理的另類(lèi)投資項(xiàng)目規(guī)模達(dá)到8,000億美元。他表示:“考慮到目前的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境,我認(rèn)為60/40的投資組合配置是不夠的。增加另類(lèi)投資變得更加重要。”
尋找一家投資上市基建項(xiàng)目的共同基金,能夠有效對(duì)沖通脹,這類(lèi)基金與股市的關(guān)聯(lián)性相對(duì)較弱,有助于制定一種防御性的投資策略。利瓦伊推薦的是布魯克菲爾德全球上市基建基金(Brookfield Global Listed Infrastructure Fund)。利瓦伊認(rèn)為,隨著全球力爭(zhēng)脫碳,可再生能源、電力公司、交通和通信基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施等領(lǐng)域,成為橡樹(shù)財(cái)富重點(diǎn)投資的子行業(yè)。他表示:“我們的投資對(duì)象具有基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的穩(wěn)定特征,有穩(wěn)定的現(xiàn)金流和一定的通脹對(duì)沖作用。它們都有宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)方面的利好消息。”
在房地產(chǎn)行業(yè),利瓦伊看好布魯克菲爾德房地產(chǎn)收益信托(Income Trust)投資組合的多樣化,他表示橡樹(shù)財(cái)富每天都在按照類(lèi)似的比例配置資金。“我們?cè)谠S多領(lǐng)域看到了機(jī)會(huì),尤其是美國(guó)的高增長(zhǎng)市場(chǎng)中,例如多戶(hù)住宅、公寓建筑、學(xué)生住房等。”隨著租金上漲,這筆收入將變得更有意義。利瓦伊表示:“現(xiàn)在人們需要選擇多樣化的投資組合,在這個(gè)時(shí)期,人們需要投資組合具有對(duì)沖通脹的效果。一年前,我可能會(huì)有額外收入,但現(xiàn)在這已經(jīng)發(fā)生了改變。”
路易斯·弗洛郎坦-李
拉扎德資產(chǎn)管理公司(Lazard Asset Management)投資組合經(jīng)理,拉扎德國(guó)際優(yōu)質(zhì)增長(zhǎng)投資組合(Lazard International Quality Growth Portfolio)
在目前的市場(chǎng)環(huán)境中,如果你有意投資個(gè)股,弗洛郎坦-李建議考慮三個(gè)因素:定價(jià)權(quán)、杠桿和彈性。他表示:“你需要確定公司的定價(jià)權(quán),因?yàn)楣緭碛卸▋r(jià)權(quán),就能轉(zhuǎn)嫁上漲的成本,避免可怕的盈利能力下降。前提是他們能夠?yàn)榭蛻?hù)創(chuàng)造真正的附加價(jià)值。”此外,如果公司過(guò)度負(fù)債并且無(wú)法生成足夠現(xiàn)金維持自籌資金發(fā)展,利率上浮將令這些公司面臨滅頂之災(zāi)。當(dāng)然,在評(píng)估一家公司的投資潛力時(shí),還需要考慮該公司在以往經(jīng)濟(jì)下滑周期的表現(xiàn)。
弗洛郎坦-李認(rèn)為IT是每個(gè)行業(yè)每家公司都需要考慮的一個(gè)戰(zhàn)略性領(lǐng)域。他表示:“這些決策現(xiàn)在被擺上了CEO們的案頭。我需要將業(yè)務(wù)轉(zhuǎn)移到云平臺(tái)。我需要可靠的照片安全保障政策。我如何看待人工智能?”弗洛郎坦-李認(rèn)為埃森哲(Accenture)符合這三個(gè)條件。埃森哲有獨(dú)特的優(yōu)勢(shì),因?yàn)樵摴九c《財(cái)富》500強(qiáng)公司的許多高管建立了長(zhǎng)期關(guān)系,而且公司能夠參與大量改造項(xiàng)目,為客戶(hù)重新布置和改造技術(shù)系統(tǒng),并且積累了豐富經(jīng)驗(yàn)。
弗洛郎坦-李看好的另外一家公司是RELX(紐約證券交易所交易代碼:RELX),該公司40%的業(yè)務(wù)來(lái)自科技和醫(yī)學(xué)學(xué)術(shù)期刊。他說(shuō)道:“學(xué)術(shù)期刊是很好的業(yè)務(wù);它們對(duì)學(xué)者至關(guān)重要,決定了他們下一個(gè)研究項(xiàng)目如何獲得資金,代表了最優(yōu)秀的科學(xué)思想。而且,它們?cè)诟咝VС鲋兴嫉谋壤^小。期刊的續(xù)訂率達(dá)到90%,營(yíng)業(yè)利潤(rùn)率為25%至30%。”此外,RELX有一項(xiàng)高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)業(yè)務(wù),為保險(xiǎn)公司提供至關(guān)重要的事故索賠數(shù)據(jù)。事實(shí)上,該公司擁有美國(guó)最大的索賠數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù),而保險(xiǎn)公司只需要付出少量成本,還可能獲得附加服務(wù),例如無(wú)索賠折扣和綜合保單報(bào)告。弗洛郎坦-李表示:“他們的業(yè)務(wù)都是客戶(hù)絕對(duì)不可或缺的,這是一重可靠的保障。”
弗洛郎坦-李提供的最后一條建議是選擇在一個(gè)小眾行業(yè)占主導(dǎo)地位的公司。他表示:“小眾市場(chǎng)決定了大公司不太可能進(jìn)入這個(gè)行業(yè)。”他推薦哪家公司?東映動(dòng)畫(huà)(TYO:4816)。這家日本公司擁有許多業(yè)內(nèi)最優(yōu)秀的IP,并且能夠利用其在日本電視行業(yè)的知名度進(jìn)軍游戲行業(yè),為公司創(chuàng)造收入。 “該公司的利潤(rùn)率很高;育碧(Ubisoft)或者另外一家同行制作游戲,而東映動(dòng)畫(huà)只需要許可版權(quán),其利潤(rùn)率幾乎達(dá)到100%。這家公司并沒(méi)有引起大多數(shù)人的關(guān)注。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
本文為《財(cái)富》雜志2022年第4季度投資指南的一部分。
翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
Maybe you’ve been sitting on the sidelines, wondering when it’s safe to jump back into the markets. Maybe you’ve been terrified of, as the old saying goes, trying to “catch a falling knife” as stocks plunge. Indeed, that’s one of the hardest bets to make as investor—diving in when valuations are down, but knowing that you can probably never accurately time the bottom. With that in mind, we canvassed three top experts on where and how to put your money to work in 2023. Surprisingly, the three offered very different advice on how they’d deploy $25,000 right now.
Our panel’s advice assumes relatively limited liquidity and an investment period of roughly seven years, and points to a number of factors from inflation to rising interest rates that should inform how and where you deploy your money. Still, all of the experts we spoke to advised having a “rainy-day fund” and a catch-all “set it and forget it” portfolio on hand before making any investments. “When it comes to investing, the most important element is time,” says Brit Baker, founder of Dow Janes, a financial education company focused on teaching women to invest. “We encourage people to invest in index funds and target date funds; the ideal is that they’re invested for 10-plus years. If you can match the market, you’re better off.”
Where to invest in 2023
Heather Loomis Tighe
Venture Capital Adviser and Partner and Strategic Adviser to Family Offices (Former Managing Director at BlackRock and JPMorgan)
Tighe warns that the U.S. is flirting with what she calls “the Bermuda Triangle of investing”: stagflation. While typical advice for a period like this is to steer your investments toward commodities (gold, silver, real estate), Tighe suggests a strategy that she says bolsters flexibility, hedges against rising interest rates, and doubles down on industries she views as growth sectors.
“There is an expression, cash is king,” says Tighe. “I would hold 35% in a municipal money market and short dated municipal bonds paying 2 to 3.5% exempt from federal taxes.” Tighe says to take 4% of the position every month for six months and drop it into diversified equity markets, leaving 11% in cash and municipal bonds, averaging into the equity markets after six months. Next, she recommends iBonds, or federally guaranteed bond investments with an interest rate that resets with inflation. Right now, iBonds are paying roughly 9%, which is just about what you can expect to get paid on a long-term investment in stocks.
Lastly, Tighe likes S&P 500 exchange-traded funds. She is particularly focused on funds built in biotech and cloud computing, specifically calling out SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (Ticker: XBI) and Wisdom Tree Cloud Computing Fund (Ticker: WCLD) as top picks for growth. “I see a strong need for both of these sectors,” she says. “Cloud computing is software, analytics, intelligence, all delivered over the internet. All companies will need this type of software as the backbone of their enterprises, and we are at the beginning stages of that transition.” Similarly, biotech has some strong tailwinds, says Tighe, given that as the aging population faces disease and chronic illness, there’s tremendous innovation in the space and a consumer commitment to inelastic spending when health and well-being are on the line.
David Levi
Managing partner, Brookfield Oaktree Wealth Solutions
For Levi, the sweet spot sits with real assets. Real estate, infrastructure, and renewable power in both private markets and the stock and bond market offer investors a sound alternative investment strategy. “Today given the macroeconomic environment, I’d argue the 60/40 portfolio isn’t sufficient,” says Levi, whose firm manages $800 billion in alternative investments. “Adding alternatives is more important than ever.”
Looking for a mutual fund that invests in listed infrastructure can be an excellent inflation hedge, related less to broad equity markets and helping to build out a defensive investment strategy. Levi’s pick is Brookfield Global Listed Infrastructure Fund. As the world moves toward decarbonization, says Levi, renewables, utilities, and transportation and communication infrastructure have become subsectors the folks at Oaktree truly zero in on. “We invest in things that have the stable characteristics of infrastructure with stable cash flows and some inflation hedge,” he says. “They have a huge macro tailwind.”
In terms of real estate, Levi likes the diversity of the Brookfield Real Estate Income Trust and notes that Oaktree is deploying capital similarly every day. “We see opportunities in a number of different ways: multifamily, apartment buildings, student housing, especially in higher-growth markets in the U.S.” As rents increase, that income will become more meaningful. Says Levi: “Right now, people need to diversify their broader portfolio and they need something that in this period has an inflation hedge embedded in it. A year ago, I might have added income, but that’s changed.”
Louis Florentin-Lee
Portfolio manager, Lazard Asset Management, Lazard International Quality Growth Portfolio
In the current market environment, if you’re interested in betting on individual stocks, there are three factors to consider says Florentin-Lee: pricing power, leverage, and resilience. “You need to be sure about a company’s pricing power, that it will give them the ability to pass on the cost inflation and avoid a nasty profitability crunch,” he says. “They can only do that if they are adding real value to their customers.” Additionally, rising interest rates have the potential to kill companies that are overleveraged and can’t generate enough cash to self-fund growth. And, of course, a company’s history of riding out past downturns should also factor into its potential for investment.
Florentin-Lee sees IT as a strategic consideration for every business, in every industry. “Those decisions are now moving to the CEO’s desk,” he says. “I need to move my business to the cloud. I need a bullet-proof photo security policy. How am I thinking about artificial intelligence?” Accenture (NYSE:ACN), says Florentin-Lee, hits all three of those notes. The company sits in a unique position given its long-term relationships with major Fortune 500 C-suites, as well as access to and experience with massive transformational projects to rewire and reinvent technological systems for clients.
RELX (NYSE: RELX) is another business Florentin-Lee is keen on, as it garners 40% of its business from academic journals in science, technology, and medicine. “Journals are amazing businesses; they are critical to academics and how they get their next research projects funded, representing the best scientific minds,” he says. “And they represent a tiny proportion of a university’s cost space. The renewal rates are well into the 90% with 25 to 30% operating margin.” Additionally, RELX operates in the risk business, providing absolutely critical accident claim data to insurance companies. In fact, it owns the largest database of claims in the U.S., at, once again, a small cost to the insurance providers, with the possibility of add-ons like no-claim discounts and integrated police reports. Says Florentin-Lee: “They are building this wonderful moat around their business that their clients absolutely have to have.”
Florentin-Lee’s final bit of advice is to choose a business that’s dominating a niche industry. “The fact that it’s niche makes it less likely that a huge player will enter the space,” he says. His pick? Toei Animation (TYO:4816). The Japanese company owns what many consider the best IP in the space and has been able to monetize its popularity on Japanese television into gaming. “It’s incredibly high margins; Ubisoft or another company like it makes the game, Toei just licenses the rights, and it’s an almost 100% margin business for them. That sits under the radar for most people.”
This article is part of Fortune’s quarterly investment guide for Q4 2022.