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經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退逼近,普通人如何未雨綢繆?

Alicia Adamczyk
2022-08-26

許多人在經(jīng)濟(jì)上還沒有做好應(yīng)對(duì)衰退的準(zhǔn)備。

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幾乎每個(gè)美國(guó)人都在擔(dān)心經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退即將到來——如果那一刻果真降臨,許多人在經(jīng)濟(jì)上還沒有做好應(yīng)對(duì)準(zhǔn)備。

盡管經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退尚未正式到來——事實(shí)上,強(qiáng)勁的就業(yè)市場(chǎng)表明經(jīng)濟(jì)仍然向好——但根據(jù)消費(fèi)金融服務(wù)公司Bankrate最新發(fā)布的一份報(bào)告,近70%的美國(guó)成年人擔(dān)心明年年底前可能會(huì)發(fā)生經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。與此同時(shí),對(duì)于經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,只有17%的人表示在經(jīng)濟(jì)上“做好了充分的準(zhǔn)備。”而超過40%的人透露稱,他們現(xiàn)有的財(cái)力不足以應(yīng)對(duì)衰退的沖擊。

不過,Bankrate的報(bào)告也包含一則好消息:絕大多數(shù)成年人(74%)正在積極采取措施,為潛在的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退做好財(cái)務(wù)準(zhǔn)備,比如減少隨意支出、增加應(yīng)急和退休儲(chǔ)蓄、償還信用卡債務(wù),并尋找更穩(wěn)定的收入。

Bankrate的高級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析師馬克·哈姆里克指出,這些都是明智之舉。

“很明顯,當(dāng)前的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況一直在以一種非常戲劇化的方式,長(zhǎng)時(shí)間地壓制著消費(fèi)者信心。”哈姆里克表示,創(chuàng)下數(shù)十年高點(diǎn)的通脹率已經(jīng)侵蝕了許多家庭的預(yù)算。但“讓我感到振奮的是,人們正在采取相當(dāng)有力的行動(dòng)來做好萬全準(zhǔn)備。我們很高興看到人們正在增加儲(chǔ)蓄,以備不時(shí)之需,因?yàn)楸娝苤瑥臍v史上看,美國(guó)人在財(cái)務(wù)方面的最大遺憾就是儲(chǔ)蓄不夠。”

盡管如此,這項(xiàng)調(diào)查顯示,在那些還沒有為經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退做好準(zhǔn)備的人中,有31%的人也沒有采取任何積極舉措來改善自身的財(cái)務(wù)前景。

但你其實(shí)可以采取一些簡(jiǎn)單的步驟來改善這種局面。倘若你對(duì)未來的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退憂心忡忡,理財(cái)顧問建議你立即行動(dòng)起來,做好以下這些事情:

1. 加強(qiáng)現(xiàn)金儲(chǔ)備

佐治亞州的注冊(cè)理財(cái)規(guī)劃師尼夫·佩爾紹德稱,在不確定的經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境中,你能夠做的最重要的事情之一是盡可能多地存儲(chǔ)應(yīng)急基金。這應(yīng)該是當(dāng)務(wù)之急。這樣一來,你就可以相對(duì)輕松地度過潛在的裁員或收入損失影響。

務(wù)必要銘記一點(diǎn):在經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退期間,許多公司可能不招人。所以,找到一份新工作所花費(fèi)的時(shí)間可能遠(yuǎn)超你的預(yù)期。許多理財(cái)專家建議存儲(chǔ)三到六個(gè)月的開支,但佩爾紹德更加謹(jǐn)慎。

“單收入家庭至少應(yīng)該給應(yīng)急儲(chǔ)備金中存上一年的基本開支。”佩爾紹德說,“雙收入家庭最起碼也應(yīng)該儲(chǔ)存九個(gè)月的基本花銷。”

但歸根結(jié)底,你需要決定存多少錢能夠讓你感到“手中有糧,心中不慌”。不止于此,有了更多的儲(chǔ)蓄,你不會(huì)火急火燎地抓住第一個(gè)工作機(jī)會(huì),你就會(huì)有更多的時(shí)間去尋找適合自己的工作。

佩爾紹德建議列出每月必要和非必要的支出清單。預(yù)算緊張的話,不妨考慮削減一些非必要開支來加強(qiáng)你的儲(chǔ)蓄。

2. 償還債務(wù)

一旦你有足夠的存款,另一個(gè)審慎的做法就是償還高息債務(wù)。鑒于持續(xù)上揚(yáng)的利率讓債務(wù)變得越來越昂貴,這一點(diǎn)就顯得愈發(fā)重要。

對(duì)于像信用卡這樣的浮動(dòng)利率債務(wù)尤其如此。信用良好的話,可以考慮用低利息的房屋凈值貸款來償還這些債務(wù),或者將債務(wù)余額轉(zhuǎn)到入門利率為0%的信用卡上。

考慮到美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)可能會(huì)再次加息,哈姆里克建議人們盡量?jī)?yōu)先考慮信用卡債務(wù),“尤其是我們知道,越來越多的人正在舉債彌補(bǔ)開支缺口。”

學(xué)生貸款,尤其是聯(lián)邦貸款的利率,通常低于其他類型的消費(fèi)債務(wù)。所以,如果你還有其他財(cái)務(wù)問題,就不一定要把迅速償還學(xué)生貸款作為優(yōu)先事項(xiàng)。此外,如果你背負(fù)私人貸款,你或許能夠以較低的利率進(jìn)行再融資。從長(zhǎng)期來看,這可以幫助你節(jié)省資金,讓你每個(gè)月存下更多的錢。

3. 繼續(xù)為退休金計(jì)劃供款

如果你不是臨近退休,現(xiàn)在似乎是削減退休金供款的好時(shí)機(jī)。但佛羅里達(dá)州的注冊(cè)理財(cái)規(guī)劃師菲利普·赫茨伯格表示,事實(shí)恰恰相反:經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷期恰恰是進(jìn)行長(zhǎng)期投資的好時(shí)機(jī)。

“市場(chǎng)低迷期是動(dòng)用正現(xiàn)金流以大幅折價(jià)購(gòu)買股票的黃金機(jī)會(huì)。”赫茨伯格說,“切不可在一時(shí)沖動(dòng)之下賣掉價(jià)值下跌的退休賬戶股票。錯(cuò)過股市復(fù)蘇可能會(huì)損害投資業(yè)績(jī)。”

事實(shí)上,如果財(cái)力允許的話,增加對(duì)個(gè)人退休賬戶或401(k)等享有稅收優(yōu)惠的賬戶的供款,是一個(gè)特別好的舉措。

4. 考慮換工作

話說回來,許多人或許沒有經(jīng)濟(jì)能力去存儲(chǔ)更多的錢或削減開支,但他們?nèi)匀粨?dān)心可能到來的衰退。

倘如此,Bankrate的哈姆里克指出,低失業(yè)率表明現(xiàn)在仍然是找工作的好時(shí)機(jī)。跳槽能夠帶來回報(bào):根據(jù)皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center)發(fā)布的一份報(bào)告,剔除通脹因素后,在2021年4月至2022年3月期間跳槽的員工中,有多達(dá)60%的人薪資上漲。而在同一時(shí)期留在同一家雇主的員工中,只有47%的人薪資上漲。

“只要就業(yè)市場(chǎng)保持穩(wěn)定,或者像現(xiàn)在這樣堅(jiān)挺——這一幕可能不會(huì)永遠(yuǎn)持續(xù)下去——有意跳槽的人仍然有機(jī)會(huì)找到好工作。”哈姆里克說。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:任文科

幾乎每個(gè)美國(guó)人都在擔(dān)心經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退即將到來——如果那一刻果真降臨,許多人在經(jīng)濟(jì)上還沒有做好應(yīng)對(duì)準(zhǔn)備。

盡管經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退尚未正式到來——事實(shí)上,強(qiáng)勁的就業(yè)市場(chǎng)表明經(jīng)濟(jì)仍然向好——但根據(jù)消費(fèi)金融服務(wù)公司Bankrate最新發(fā)布的一份報(bào)告,近70%的美國(guó)成年人擔(dān)心明年年底前可能會(huì)發(fā)生經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。與此同時(shí),對(duì)于經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,只有17%的人表示在經(jīng)濟(jì)上“做好了充分的準(zhǔn)備。”而超過40%的人透露稱,他們現(xiàn)有的財(cái)力不足以應(yīng)對(duì)衰退的沖擊。

不過,Bankrate的報(bào)告也包含一則好消息:絕大多數(shù)成年人(74%)正在積極采取措施,為潛在的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退做好財(cái)務(wù)準(zhǔn)備,比如減少隨意支出、增加應(yīng)急和退休儲(chǔ)蓄、償還信用卡債務(wù),并尋找更穩(wěn)定的收入。

Bankrate的高級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析師馬克·哈姆里克指出,這些都是明智之舉。

“很明顯,當(dāng)前的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況一直在以一種非常戲劇化的方式,長(zhǎng)時(shí)間地壓制著消費(fèi)者信心。”哈姆里克表示,創(chuàng)下數(shù)十年高點(diǎn)的通脹率已經(jīng)侵蝕了許多家庭的預(yù)算。但“讓我感到振奮的是,人們正在采取相當(dāng)有力的行動(dòng)來做好萬全準(zhǔn)備。我們很高興看到人們正在增加儲(chǔ)蓄,以備不時(shí)之需,因?yàn)楸娝苤瑥臍v史上看,美國(guó)人在財(cái)務(wù)方面的最大遺憾就是儲(chǔ)蓄不夠。”

盡管如此,這項(xiàng)調(diào)查顯示,在那些還沒有為經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退做好準(zhǔn)備的人中,有31%的人也沒有采取任何積極舉措來改善自身的財(cái)務(wù)前景。

但你其實(shí)可以采取一些簡(jiǎn)單的步驟來改善這種局面。倘若你對(duì)未來的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退憂心忡忡,理財(cái)顧問建議你立即行動(dòng)起來,做好以下這些事情:

1. 加強(qiáng)現(xiàn)金儲(chǔ)備

佐治亞州的注冊(cè)理財(cái)規(guī)劃師尼夫·佩爾紹德稱,在不確定的經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境中,你能夠做的最重要的事情之一是盡可能多地存儲(chǔ)應(yīng)急基金。這應(yīng)該是當(dāng)務(wù)之急。這樣一來,你就可以相對(duì)輕松地度過潛在的裁員或收入損失影響。

務(wù)必要銘記一點(diǎn):在經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退期間,許多公司可能不招人。所以,找到一份新工作所花費(fèi)的時(shí)間可能遠(yuǎn)超你的預(yù)期。許多理財(cái)專家建議存儲(chǔ)三到六個(gè)月的開支,但佩爾紹德更加謹(jǐn)慎。

“單收入家庭至少應(yīng)該給應(yīng)急儲(chǔ)備金中存上一年的基本開支。”佩爾紹德說,“雙收入家庭最起碼也應(yīng)該儲(chǔ)存九個(gè)月的基本花銷。”

但歸根結(jié)底,你需要決定存多少錢能夠讓你感到“手中有糧,心中不慌”。不止于此,有了更多的儲(chǔ)蓄,你不會(huì)火急火燎地抓住第一個(gè)工作機(jī)會(huì),你就會(huì)有更多的時(shí)間去尋找適合自己的工作。

佩爾紹德建議列出每月必要和非必要的支出清單。預(yù)算緊張的話,不妨考慮削減一些非必要開支來加強(qiáng)你的儲(chǔ)蓄。

2. 償還債務(wù)

一旦你有足夠的存款,另一個(gè)審慎的做法就是償還高息債務(wù)。鑒于持續(xù)上揚(yáng)的利率讓債務(wù)變得越來越昂貴,這一點(diǎn)就顯得愈發(fā)重要。

對(duì)于像信用卡這樣的浮動(dòng)利率債務(wù)尤其如此。信用良好的話,可以考慮用低利息的房屋凈值貸款來償還這些債務(wù),或者將債務(wù)余額轉(zhuǎn)到入門利率為0%的信用卡上。

考慮到美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)可能會(huì)再次加息,哈姆里克建議人們盡量?jī)?yōu)先考慮信用卡債務(wù),“尤其是我們知道,越來越多的人正在舉債彌補(bǔ)開支缺口。”

學(xué)生貸款,尤其是聯(lián)邦貸款的利率,通常低于其他類型的消費(fèi)債務(wù)。所以,如果你還有其他財(cái)務(wù)問題,就不一定要把迅速償還學(xué)生貸款作為優(yōu)先事項(xiàng)。此外,如果你背負(fù)私人貸款,你或許能夠以較低的利率進(jìn)行再融資。從長(zhǎng)期來看,這可以幫助你節(jié)省資金,讓你每個(gè)月存下更多的錢。

3. 繼續(xù)為退休金計(jì)劃供款

如果你不是臨近退休,現(xiàn)在似乎是削減退休金供款的好時(shí)機(jī)。但佛羅里達(dá)州的注冊(cè)理財(cái)規(guī)劃師菲利普·赫茨伯格表示,事實(shí)恰恰相反:經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷期恰恰是進(jìn)行長(zhǎng)期投資的好時(shí)機(jī)。

“市場(chǎng)低迷期是動(dòng)用正現(xiàn)金流以大幅折價(jià)購(gòu)買股票的黃金機(jī)會(huì)。”赫茨伯格說,“切不可在一時(shí)沖動(dòng)之下賣掉價(jià)值下跌的退休賬戶股票。錯(cuò)過股市復(fù)蘇可能會(huì)損害投資業(yè)績(jī)。”

事實(shí)上,如果財(cái)力允許的話,增加對(duì)個(gè)人退休賬戶或401(k)等享有稅收優(yōu)惠的賬戶的供款,是一個(gè)特別好的舉措。

4. 考慮換工作

話說回來,許多人或許沒有經(jīng)濟(jì)能力去存儲(chǔ)更多的錢或削減開支,但他們?nèi)匀粨?dān)心可能到來的衰退。

倘如此,Bankrate的哈姆里克指出,低失業(yè)率表明現(xiàn)在仍然是找工作的好時(shí)機(jī)。跳槽能夠帶來回報(bào):根據(jù)皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center)發(fā)布的一份報(bào)告,剔除通脹因素后,在2021年4月至2022年3月期間跳槽的員工中,有多達(dá)60%的人薪資上漲。而在同一時(shí)期留在同一家雇主的員工中,只有47%的人薪資上漲。

“只要就業(yè)市場(chǎng)保持穩(wěn)定,或者像現(xiàn)在這樣堅(jiān)挺——這一幕可能不會(huì)永遠(yuǎn)持續(xù)下去——有意跳槽的人仍然有機(jī)會(huì)找到好工作。”哈姆里克說。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:任文科

Just about every American is worried about an imminent recession—and many aren’t financially ready for a downturn if it does come.

Though a recession has not been officially declared—and a strong job market indicates the opposite—nearly seven in 10 U.S. adults are worried about the possibility of one before the end of next year, according to a new report from Bankrate. At the same time, just 17% say they are “very prepared” financially for a recession, while more than 40% say their finances are not in order to weather one.

The good news: The vast majority of adults (74%) say they are actively taking steps to prepare their finances for a potential downturn, according to Bankrate. That includes spending less on discretionary purchases, adding to their emergency and retirement savings, paying down credit card debt, and looking for more stable income.

Those are all smart moves to make if possible, says Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate.

“Clearly the current economic conditions have been weighing on consumer sentiment in a very dramatic way for a long time,” says Hamrick, noting that decades-high inflation has been taking a toll on many household budgets. But “I am heartened in a way that people are taking pretty strong actions to prepare. We love the fact that they’re saving more for emergencies…because we see that historically Americans’ biggest financial regrets are not saving enough.”

That said, 31% of those who say they are not prepared for a recession are also not actively doing anything to improve their financial outlook, according to the survey.

But there are easy steps to take. Here’s what financial advisors recommend doing now if you’re worried about a recession in the future.

1. Build up cash reserves

One of the most important things you can do in the midst of an uncertain economy is to save as much as you can in your emergency fund, says Niv Persaud, a Georgia-based certified financial planner. This should be your top priority, so you can more easily ride out a potential layoff or loss of income.

Remember: During a recession, many companies may not be hiring. So it could take you longer to find a new job than you might expect. While many financial experts recommend having three to six months’ worth of expenses saved, Persaud is more cautious.

“Single-income households should have at least one year of essential expenses saved in their emergency reserve,” says Persaud. “Dual-income households should save at least nine months of essential expenses.”

Ultimately, though, you need to decide how much savings makes you feel most comfortable. That said, having more saved could help ensure you’re not settling for the first job offer you get, and give you time to look for the right fit.

Persaud recommends making a list of essential and non-essential monthly expenses. If your budget is tight, consider cutting back on a few things on your non-essential list going forward to bolster your savings.

2. Pay down debt

Once you have adequate savings, another prudent move is to pay down high-interest debt. This is even more important as interest rates continue to rise and the debt gets more costly.

This is especially true for variable-rate debt like credit cards. If you have decent credit, you could consider paying off that debt with a lower-interest home equity loan, or transferring the balance to a credit card with 0% introductory rate.

With the Federal Reserve likely to raise interest rates again, Hamrick recommends people try to prioritize credit card debt, “even as we know more individuals are turning to debt to plug the gap in the cost of things.”

Student loans, particularly federal loans, typically have lower interest rates than other types of consumer debt, so it shouldn’t necessarily be a priority to pay those off quickly if you have other financial concerns. That said if you have private loans, you might be able to refinance them at a lower rate, which could save you over the long-term and give you more money each month to put toward savings.

3. Continue contributing to retirement investments

If you’re not nearing retirement, it might seem like an okay time to cut your retirement contributions. But the opposite is actually true, says Philip Herzberg, a Florida-based CFP: A downturn is actually a great time to invest for the long-term.

“Market downturns are a golden opportunity to direct positive cash flow to buy stocks at significantly discounted prices,” says Herzberg. “Do not be tempted to sell retirement account stocks that declined in value. Missing out on a stock market recovery can hurt investment performance.”

In fact, if you can afford to do so, ramping up your contributions to tax-advantaged accounts like an IRA or 401(k) is an especially good move to make.

4. Consider switching jobs

All of that said, many people may not have the financial means to save more or cut their spending, but they are still worried about a possible recession.

If that’s the case, Bankrate’s Hamrick says the low unemployment rate indicates it’s still a good time to look for a better job. Job hopping can pay off: 60% of workers who changed jobs between April 2021 and March of 2022 reported a wage increase, adjusted for inflation, according to a report released by Pew Research Center. Just 47% of workers who stayed at the same employer for that time period reported the same.

“As long as the job market remains firm or as firm as it is—that may not last forever—there’s still an opportunity for people out there if they so choose,” Hamrick says.

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