美國(guó)樓市意外出現(xiàn)回暖跡象
LANCE LAMBERT
2022-08-04
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)（Federal Reserve）應(yīng)對(duì)通貨膨脹的策略很簡(jiǎn)單。它的基本策略是：持續(xù)加息，直到整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)中的企業(yè)和消費(fèi)者支出減少，通脹回落。
從歷史上來(lái)看，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)應(yīng)對(duì)通脹的策略，對(duì)美國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)造成了嚴(yán)重沖擊。在房地產(chǎn)交易中，月供是關(guān)鍵。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)著手應(yīng)對(duì)通脹之后，抵押貸款利率隨之驟升，導(dǎo)致新貸款人的月供大幅增加。這也解釋了為何今年春季抵押貸款利率上漲之后，房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)迅速降溫。
但由此導(dǎo)致的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)調(diào)整可能很快失去動(dòng)力。
上周，抵押貸款利率快速下降。截至周二，平均30年期固定抵押貸款利率為5.05%，從6月的最高點(diǎn)6.28%有顯著下降。抵押貸款利率下降讓持幣觀望的購(gòu)房者舒了一口氣。如果貸款人在6月以6.28%的利率抵押貸款500,000美元，月供本息為3,088美元。如果按5.05%的利率貸款，月供只有2,699美元。在30年貸款期限內(nèi)可節(jié)省140,000美元。
到底發(fā)生了什么？隨著疲軟的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)陸續(xù)公布，金融市場(chǎng)開(kāi)始將2023年的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退考慮在內(nèi)。這給抵押貸款利率帶來(lái)了下行壓力。
穆迪分析（Moody’s Analytics）首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家馬克·扎蒂對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示：“債券市場(chǎng)考慮到明年有較高概率發(fā)生經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，而經(jīng)濟(jì)下行會(huì)迫使美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)改變方向，并降低聯(lián)邦基金利率?！?/p>
雖然美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)并不直接確定抵押貸款利率，但其政策確實(shí)會(huì)影響金融市場(chǎng)如何確定10年期國(guó)債收益率和抵押貸款利率。如果預(yù)計(jì)聯(lián)邦基金利率上調(diào)且貨幣政策收緊，金融市場(chǎng)會(huì)推高10年期國(guó)債收益率和抵押貸款利率。如果預(yù)計(jì)聯(lián)邦基金利率下調(diào)且貨幣政策放寬，金融市場(chǎng)會(huì)降低10年期國(guó)債收益率和抵押貸款利率。目前金融市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)的正是后一種情況。
今年早些時(shí)候，隨著抵押貸款利率大幅提高，有數(shù)以千萬(wàn)計(jì)的美國(guó)人失去了抵押貸款資格。然而，隨著抵押貸款利率開(kāi)始下滑，有數(shù)百萬(wàn)美國(guó)人又有機(jī)會(huì)申請(qǐng)抵押貸款。因此，許多房地產(chǎn)業(yè)從業(yè)者對(duì)抵押貸款利率下降歡欣鼓舞：利率下降將有助于增加購(gòu)房業(yè)務(wù)。
抵押貸款利率下降毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)會(huì)刺激更多觀望者購(gòu)房，但不要認(rèn)為房地產(chǎn)回調(diào)已經(jīng)結(jié)束。
經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)博客Calculated Risk的作者比爾·麥克布賴德在周二的一篇通訊稿中寫道：“歸根結(jié)底，最近的抵押貸款利率下降會(huì)有少許幫助，但5%的抵押貸款利率意味著房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)依舊面臨壓力（銷量減少，房?jī)r(jià)上漲放緩）。”為什么呢？即使抵押貸款利率下降一個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，房地產(chǎn)的可負(fù)擔(dān)性依舊為史上最低。
麥克布賴德寫道：“如果我們將房?jī)r(jià)上漲考慮在內(nèi)，同一套住房的月供同比上漲了超過(guò)50%?！?/p>
之所以說(shuō)看好房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的人過(guò)于樂(lè)觀，還有另外一個(gè)原因：如果對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的擔(dān)憂（正在幫助降低抵押貸款利率）是正確的，可能導(dǎo)致房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)更加疲軟。如果人們擔(dān)心失業(yè)，他們就不會(huì)進(jìn)入房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)。
扎蒂告訴《財(cái)富》雜志：“雖然利率下降本身確實(shí)是房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的利好消息，但如果同時(shí)出現(xiàn)了經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退和失業(yè)率快速上升，利率下降無(wú)法產(chǎn)生積極效果?！?/p>
未來(lái)抵押貸款利率將如何變化？
美國(guó)銀行（Bank of America）的研究人員認(rèn)為，未來(lái)12個(gè)月，10年期國(guó)債收益率可能從2.7%下降至2.0%。這可能導(dǎo)致抵押貸款利率下降至4%至4.5%。（抵押貸款利率的變化趨勢(shì)與10年期國(guó)債收益率的變化趨勢(shì)密切相關(guān)。）
但有一個(gè)重要的未知因素：美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)。
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)顯然希望放緩房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的增長(zhǎng)速度。疫情期間的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)繁榮是導(dǎo)致通脹高企的原因之一。在此期間，房?jī)r(jià)上漲了42%，房屋建設(shè)量創(chuàng)16年新高。房屋銷量下降和房屋建設(shè)量減少，應(yīng)該能緩解美國(guó)嚴(yán)重緊張的房屋供應(yīng)。我們已經(jīng)看到住房開(kāi)工率下降，正在減少對(duì)框架木材、櫥柜、窗戶等材料的需求。
但如果抵押貸款利率下降過(guò)快，房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)反彈，可能干擾美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)應(yīng)對(duì)通脹的努力。如果出現(xiàn)這種情況，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)擁有足夠多的貨幣“武器”，再次給抵押貸款利率帶來(lái)上行壓力。
明尼阿波利斯聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行（Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis）主席尼爾·卡什卡利周日對(duì)CBS表示：“無(wú)論我們從技術(shù)上是否陷入經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，并不會(huì)改變我的分析結(jié)果。我關(guān)注的是通脹數(shù)據(jù)……到目前為止，通貨膨脹繼續(xù)升高，令我們感到意外。我們致力于降低通脹，并將為此竭盡所能?！保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng)）
譯者：劉進(jìn)龍
審校：汪皓
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)（Federal Reserve）應(yīng)對(duì)通貨膨脹的策略很簡(jiǎn)單。它的基本策略是：持續(xù)加息，直到整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)中的企業(yè)和消費(fèi)者支出減少，通脹回落。
從歷史上來(lái)看，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)應(yīng)對(duì)通脹的策略，對(duì)美國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)造成了嚴(yán)重沖擊。在房地產(chǎn)交易中，月供是關(guān)鍵。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)著手應(yīng)對(duì)通脹之后，抵押貸款利率隨之驟升，導(dǎo)致新貸款人的月供大幅增加。這也解釋了為何今年春季抵押貸款利率上漲之后，房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)迅速降溫。
但由此導(dǎo)致的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)調(diào)整可能很快失去動(dòng)力。
上周，抵押貸款利率快速下降。截至周二，平均30年期固定抵押貸款利率為5.05%，從6月的最高點(diǎn)6.28%有顯著下降。抵押貸款利率下降讓持幣觀望的購(gòu)房者舒了一口氣。如果貸款人在6月以6.28%的利率抵押貸款500,000美元，月供本息為3,088美元。如果按5.05%的利率貸款，月供只有2,699美元。在30年貸款期限內(nèi)可節(jié)省140,000美元。
到底發(fā)生了什么？隨著疲軟的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)陸續(xù)公布，金融市場(chǎng)開(kāi)始將2023年的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退考慮在內(nèi)。這給抵押貸款利率帶來(lái)了下行壓力。
穆迪分析（Moody’s Analytics）首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家馬克·扎蒂對(duì)《財(cái)富》雜志表示：“債券市場(chǎng)考慮到明年有較高概率發(fā)生經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，而經(jīng)濟(jì)下行會(huì)迫使美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)改變方向，并降低聯(lián)邦基金利率?！?/p>
雖然美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)并不直接確定抵押貸款利率，但其政策確實(shí)會(huì)影響金融市場(chǎng)如何確定10年期國(guó)債收益率和抵押貸款利率。如果預(yù)計(jì)聯(lián)邦基金利率上調(diào)且貨幣政策收緊，金融市場(chǎng)會(huì)推高10年期國(guó)債收益率和抵押貸款利率。如果預(yù)計(jì)聯(lián)邦基金利率下調(diào)且貨幣政策放寬，金融市場(chǎng)會(huì)降低10年期國(guó)債收益率和抵押貸款利率。目前金融市場(chǎng)出現(xiàn)的正是后一種情況。
平均30年期固定抵押貸款利率
2021年8月
2022年2月
2022年8月
最新數(shù)據(jù)截止于2022年8月1日
制圖：LANCE LAMBERT · 資料來(lái)源：《抵押貸款每日新聞》
今年早些時(shí)候，隨著抵押貸款利率大幅提高，有數(shù)以千萬(wàn)計(jì)的美國(guó)人失去了抵押貸款資格。然而，隨著抵押貸款利率開(kāi)始下滑，有數(shù)百萬(wàn)美國(guó)人又有機(jī)會(huì)申請(qǐng)抵押貸款。因此，許多房地產(chǎn)業(yè)從業(yè)者對(duì)抵押貸款利率下降歡欣鼓舞：利率下降將有助于增加購(gòu)房業(yè)務(wù)。
抵押貸款利率下降毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)會(huì)刺激更多觀望者購(gòu)房，但不要認(rèn)為房地產(chǎn)回調(diào)已經(jīng)結(jié)束。
經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)博客Calculated Risk的作者比爾·麥克布賴德在周二的一篇通訊稿中寫道：“歸根結(jié)底，最近的抵押貸款利率下降會(huì)有少許幫助，但5%的抵押貸款利率意味著房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)依舊面臨壓力（銷量減少，房?jī)r(jià)上漲放緩）?！睘槭裁茨?？即使抵押貸款利率下降一個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，房地產(chǎn)的可負(fù)擔(dān)性依舊為史上最低。
麥克布賴德寫道：“如果我們將房?jī)r(jià)上漲考慮在內(nèi)，同一套住房的月供同比上漲了超過(guò)50%。”
之所以說(shuō)看好房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的人過(guò)于樂(lè)觀，還有另外一個(gè)原因：如果對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的擔(dān)憂（正在幫助降低抵押貸款利率）是正確的，可能導(dǎo)致房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)更加疲軟。如果人們擔(dān)心失業(yè)，他們就不會(huì)進(jìn)入房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)。
扎蒂告訴《財(cái)富》雜志：“雖然利率下降本身確實(shí)是房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的利好消息，但如果同時(shí)出現(xiàn)了經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退和失業(yè)率快速上升，利率下降無(wú)法產(chǎn)生積極效果。”
首次抵押貸款500,000美元的本息月供金額
過(guò)去兩個(gè)月，平均30年期固定抵押貸款利率從6.28%下降到5.05%
2021年8月
2022年2月
2022年8月
制圖：LANCE LAMBERT · 資料來(lái)源：《財(cái)富》雜志使用《抵押貸款每日新聞》的抵押貸款數(shù)據(jù)計(jì)算的結(jié)果
未來(lái)抵押貸款利率將如何變化？
美國(guó)銀行（Bank of America）的研究人員認(rèn)為，未來(lái)12個(gè)月，10年期國(guó)債收益率可能從2.7%下降至2.0%。這可能導(dǎo)致抵押貸款利率下降至4%至4.5%。（抵押貸款利率的變化趨勢(shì)與10年期國(guó)債收益率的變化趨勢(shì)密切相關(guān)。）
但有一個(gè)重要的未知因素：美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)。
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)顯然希望放緩房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的增長(zhǎng)速度。疫情期間的房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)繁榮是導(dǎo)致通脹高企的原因之一。在此期間，房?jī)r(jià)上漲了42%，房屋建設(shè)量創(chuàng)16年新高。房屋銷量下降和房屋建設(shè)量減少，應(yīng)該能緩解美國(guó)嚴(yán)重緊張的房屋供應(yīng)。我們已經(jīng)看到住房開(kāi)工率下降，正在減少對(duì)框架木材、櫥柜、窗戶等材料的需求。
但如果抵押貸款利率下降過(guò)快，房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)反彈，可能干擾美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)應(yīng)對(duì)通脹的努力。如果出現(xiàn)這種情況，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)擁有足夠多的貨幣“武器”，再次給抵押貸款利率帶來(lái)上行壓力。
明尼阿波利斯聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備銀行（Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis）主席尼爾·卡什卡利周日對(duì)CBS表示：“無(wú)論我們從技術(shù)上是否陷入經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，并不會(huì)改變我的分析結(jié)果。我關(guān)注的是通脹數(shù)據(jù)……到目前為止，通貨膨脹繼續(xù)升高，令我們感到意外。我們致力于降低通脹，并將為此竭盡所能?！保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng)）
譯者：劉進(jìn)龍
審校：汪皓
The Federal Reserve has a simple inflation-fighting playbook. It goes like this: Keep applying upward pressure on interest rates until business and consumer spending across the economy weakens and inflation recedes.
Historically speaking, the Fed’s inflation-fighting playbook always delivers a particularly hard hit to the U.S. housing market. When it comes to housing transactions, monthly payments are everything. And when mortgage rates spike—which happens as soon as the Fed goes after inflation—those payments spike for new borrowers. That explains why as soon as mortgage rates rose this spring, the housing market slipped into a housing cool down.
But that housing correction could soon lose some steam.
Over the past week, mortgage rates have declined fast. As of Tuesday, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate sits at 5.05%, down from June, when mortgage rates peaked at 6.28%. Those falling mortgage rates give sidelined homebuyers immediate relief. If a borrower in June took out a $500,000 mortgage at a 6.28% rate, they’d pay $3,088 monthly in principal and interest. At a 5.05% rate, that payment would be just $2,699. Over the course of the 30-year loan that’s a savings of $140,000.
What’s going on? As weakening economic data rolls in, financial markets are pricing in a 2023 recession. That’s putting downward pressure on mortgage rates.
“The bond market is pricing in a high probability of a recession next year, and that the downturn will prompt the Fed to reverse course and cut [Federal Funds] rates,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, tells Fortune.
While the Fed doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, its policies do impact how financial markets price both the 10-year Treasury yield and mortgage rates. In expectation of a rising Federal Funds rate and monetary tightening, financial markets increase both the 10-year Treasury yield and mortgage rates. In expectation of a reduced Federal Funds rate and monetary easing, financial markets price down both the 10-year Treasury yield and mortgage rates. The latter is what we’re seeing now in financial markets.
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate
AUG ’21
FEB ’22
AUG ’22
LATEST READING IS FROM AUGUST 1, 2022
CHART: LANCE LAMBERT · SOURCE: MORTGAGE NEWS DAILY
As mortgage rates spiked earlier this year, tens of millions of Americans lost their mortgage eligibility. However, as mortgage rates begin to slide, millions of Americans are regaining access to mortgages. That's why so many real estate professionals are cheering on lower mortgage rates: They should help to increase homebuying activity.
While lower mortgage rates will undoubtedly prompt more sideline buyers return to open houses, don't pencil in the end of the housing correction just yet.
"The bottom line is the recent decline in mortgage rates will help at the margin, but the housing market will remain under pressure with mortgage rates at 5% (fewer sales, slowing house price growth)," wrote Bill McBride, author of the economics blog Calculated Risk, in his Tuesday newsletter. The reason? Even with the one-percentage-point drop in mortgage rates, housing affordability remains historically low.
"If we include the increase in house prices, payments are up more than 50% year over year on the same home," writes McBride.
There's another reason housing bulls shouldn't get too overconfident: If recession fears—which are helping to drive mortgage rates lower—are correct, it would cause some additional weakening in the sector. If someone is afraid of losing their job, they're not going to jump into the housing market.
"While lower rates by themselves are a positive for housing, that isn’t the case when accompanied by a recession and quickly rising unemployment," Zandi tells Fortune.
The monthly principal and interest payment on a new $500,000 mortgage
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has fallen from 6.28% to 5.05% over the past two months
AUG ’21
FEB ’22
AUG ’22
CHART: LANCE LAMBERT · SOURCE: CALCULATION BY FORTUNE, USING MORTGAGE DATA FROM MORTGAGE NEWS DAILY
Where will mortgage rates head from here?
Researchers at Bank of America believe there's a chance that the 10-year Treasury yield could slip from 2.7 to 2.0% over the coming 12 months. That could make mortgage rates fall to between 4% and 4.5%. (The trajectory of mortgage rates correlates closely with the trajectory of the 10-year Treasury yield.)
But there's a big wild card: the Federal Reserve.
The Fed clearly wants to slow the housing market. The pandemic housing boom—during which home prices soared 42% and homebuilding hit a 16-year high—has been among the drivers of sky-high inflation. Reduced home sales and a decline in homebuilding should provide relief for the overstressed U.S. supply of housing. We're already seeing it: Plummeting housing starts is translating into reduced demand for everything from framing lumber to cabinets to windows.
But if mortgage rates fall too quickly, a rebounding housing market could mess up the Fed's inflation fight. If that happens, the Fed has more than enough monetary "firepower" to once again put upward pressure on mortgage rates.
“Whether we are technically in a recession or not doesn’t change my analysis. I’m focused on the inflation data...And so far, inflation continues to surprise us to the upside," Neel Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, told CBS on Sunday. "We are committed to bringing inflation down, and we're going to do what we need to do."
