隨著美國從新冠疫情期間的失業潮中完全恢復,它將走向何方?
今年7月8日發布的就業報告顯示,美國的就業狀況好于預期,6月新增37.2萬個就業崗位。事實上,美國目前已經從私營行業在新冠疫情期間的失業潮中完全恢復。
但由于持續的高通脹和美聯儲(Federal Reserve)繼續加息的可能性,社會各界普遍擔心美國將陷入經濟衰退。
勞動力市場數據公司Lightcast的高級經濟學家羅恩·赫特里克表示,這是因為經濟和就業市場之間可能日益脫節。赫特里克說:“作為在過去三四十年成長起來的一代人,我們對經濟下行時伴隨著裁員的情況已經習以為常。”所以如果按照勞動力市場的現狀來判斷,美國不可能陷入經濟衰退,對吧?
不要著急下結論。赫特里克指出,在新冠疫情之后的經濟復蘇期間,公司實際上很難招聘到他們需要的足夠人手。截至今年5月,美國依舊有1130萬個職位空缺,而且人員流動率并沒有變化。每個月依舊有約400萬上班族辭職。赫特里克稱:“你根本招不到人,也就不會有裁員一說。”
所以,盡管沒有出現經濟衰退期間常見的裁員潮,但按照GDP計算,美國依舊有可能陷入經濟衰退。
美國勞工部(U.S. Department of Labor)的首席經濟學家若埃勒·甘布爾承認,勞動力市場與經濟的關系“目前并不明確”。
甘布爾對《財富》雜志表示,在新冠疫情爆發之后,美國人經歷了一次非同尋常的經濟下滑和復蘇過程。她認為,投資和政府刺激政策,尤其是“美國救助計劃”(American Rescue Plan),幫助加快了經濟復蘇的步伐,“坦白說,這是非同尋常的。”
甘布爾說:“我們現在看到私營行業的就業已經完全恢復到新冠疫情之前的水平。”但她指出,6月的就業數據低于今年早些時候的數據。當時,美國單月新增就業崗位接近50萬個。她補充道,隨著美國經濟走出低迷,就業率將達到更高的水平,預計新增就業崗位會持續減少。
就業增長速度放緩雖然是正常現象,但它并不代表美國即將陷入經濟衰退。甘布爾表示,還有其他原因讓她看好美國經濟狀況。她說:“在思考美國經濟的未來時,我會研究美國家庭和上班族的表現。包括低收入家庭在內,美國家庭財務狀況良好。這份報告顯然證明就業增長依舊穩定,而有工作對于保證穩定收入至關重要。此外,消費者正在繼續消費。”
甘布爾補充道:“這些強勁的基本面消息,以及消費驅動的經濟結構,確實會讓你停下來,認真思考如何評估宏觀經濟狀況。面對當下如此獨特的大環境,我不會不懂裝懂,自以為無所不知。”(財富中文網)
譯者:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
隨著美國從新冠疫情期間的失業潮中完全恢復,它將走向何方?
今年7月8日發布的就業報告顯示,美國的就業狀況好于預期,6月新增37.2萬個就業崗位。事實上,美國目前已經從私營行業在新冠疫情期間的失業潮中完全恢復。
但由于持續的高通脹和美聯儲(Federal Reserve)繼續加息的可能性,社會各界普遍擔心美國將陷入經濟衰退。
勞動力市場數據公司Lightcast的高級經濟學家羅恩·赫特里克表示,這是因為經濟和就業市場之間可能日益脫節。赫特里克說:“作為在過去三四十年成長起來的一代人,我們對經濟下行時伴隨著裁員的情況已經習以為常。”所以如果按照勞動力市場的現狀來判斷,美國不可能陷入經濟衰退,對吧?
不要著急下結論。赫特里克指出,在新冠疫情之后的經濟復蘇期間,公司實際上很難招聘到他們需要的足夠人手。截至今年5月,美國依舊有1130萬個職位空缺,而且人員流動率并沒有變化。每個月依舊有約400萬上班族辭職。赫特里克稱:“你根本招不到人,也就不會有裁員一說。”
所以,盡管沒有出現經濟衰退期間常見的裁員潮,但按照GDP計算,美國依舊有可能陷入經濟衰退。
美國勞工部(U.S. Department of Labor)的首席經濟學家若埃勒·甘布爾承認,勞動力市場與經濟的關系“目前并不明確”。
甘布爾對《財富》雜志表示,在新冠疫情爆發之后,美國人經歷了一次非同尋常的經濟下滑和復蘇過程。她認為,投資和政府刺激政策,尤其是“美國救助計劃”(American Rescue Plan),幫助加快了經濟復蘇的步伐,“坦白說,這是非同尋常的。”
甘布爾說:“我們現在看到私營行業的就業已經完全恢復到新冠疫情之前的水平。”但她指出,6月的就業數據低于今年早些時候的數據。當時,美國單月新增就業崗位接近50萬個。她補充道,隨著美國經濟走出低迷,就業率將達到更高的水平,預計新增就業崗位會持續減少。
就業增長速度放緩雖然是正常現象,但它并不代表美國即將陷入經濟衰退。甘布爾表示,還有其他原因讓她看好美國經濟狀況。她說:“在思考美國經濟的未來時,我會研究美國家庭和上班族的表現。包括低收入家庭在內,美國家庭財務狀況良好。這份報告顯然證明就業增長依舊穩定,而有工作對于保證穩定收入至關重要。此外,消費者正在繼續消費。”
甘布爾補充道:“這些強勁的基本面消息,以及消費驅動的經濟結構,確實會讓你停下來,認真思考如何評估宏觀經濟狀況。面對當下如此獨特的大環境,我不會不懂裝懂,自以為無所不知。”(財富中文網)
譯者:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
With pandemic job losses fully recovered, where does the U.S. go from here?
The July 8’s jobs report?highlighted a better-than-expected employment situation, with the U.S. adding 372,000 jobs in June. In fact, the U.S. has now fully recovered from private-sector pandemic job losses.
Yet there’s still widespread fears of a recession thanks to persistently high inflation and the potential for the Federal Reserve to continue increasing interest rates.
That’s because there may be a growing disconnect between the economy and the labor market, says Ron Hetrick, senior economist at labor market data firm Lightcast. “For anyone who grew up in the last 30 to 40 years, we’re used to downturns in the economy being accompanied by layoffs,” Hetrick says. So judging by the current labor market, there’s no way we could be heading into a recession, right?
Not so fast. Companies were never really able to hire up as much as they wanted during the economic recovery from the pandemic, Hetrick says. As of May, there were still 11.3 million job openings and the turnover rate was unchanged. Roughly 4 million workers are still quitting each month. “You can’t lay off what you were never able to hire,” Hetrick says.
So it’s not out of the realm of possibility that the U.S. could experience an economic downturn in terms of GDP, without seeing the wave of layoffs that typically go with a recession.
The labor market’s relationship with the wider economy is “really unclear at this point,” acknowledges Joelle Gamble, chief economist at the U.S. Department of Labor.
Americans have experienced a very unusual downturn and recovery in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, Gamble tells Fortune. The investments and government stimulus, particularly the American Rescue Plan, have helped facilitate a really fast recovery, which was “unusual, to be frank,” Gamble says.
“We now see that private sector employment is fully recovered from its pre-pandemic level,” she says. But Gamble noted that June's job numbers were not as high as they had been earlier this year when the U.S. was adding closer to half a million jobs a month. Still a decline is to be expected when an economy is reaching a higher level of employment coming out of a downturn, she adds.
This slowing job growth, while normal, isn’t a sign that a recession is right around the corner though. And there’s other reasons to be hopeful about the U.S. economic situation, Gamble says. “When I think about the future of the economy, I look at how American families and American workers are doing. Household balances are strong, including for low-income families. Obviously with this report, job growth remains steady, and having a job is essential for having a steady income. And customers are continuing to spend,” Gamble says.
“When you see those kinds of strong fundamentals—and an economy that's driven by consumer spending—it does bring you pause about how to actually assess the overall macro picture,” she adds. “I don't pretend to have all the answers about this very unique situation.”