2022年上半年,美股不景氣,投資者期待股市能夠迎來(lái)反彈。但凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)的最新報(bào)告卻給有這種想法的人們潑了一盆冷水。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們不僅預(yù)測(cè)今年剩余時(shí)間將是一段痛苦的時(shí)期,他們還預(yù)測(cè)明年的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)(S&P 500)可能進(jìn)一步下跌。首席市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家約翰·希金斯寫道:“我們預(yù)計(jì)今年下半年,美國(guó)股市和國(guó)債很難有好的表現(xiàn)。”
以下是他們對(duì)市場(chǎng)前景的預(yù)測(cè)。希金斯寫道:預(yù)計(jì)美國(guó)國(guó)債收益率再次上漲“將對(duì)股市估值帶來(lái)更大的下行壓力,這將再次使投資者希望股票帶來(lái)更多‘無(wú)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)’回報(bào)。我們認(rèn)為,分析師們對(duì)收益的樂(lè)觀預(yù)期并不符合我們所預(yù)測(cè)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)持續(xù)疲軟和美元進(jìn)一步升值的大環(huán)境,尤其是隨著利潤(rùn)率的不斷上漲。令人失望的收益結(jié)果還會(huì)進(jìn)一步推高股票風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià)。情況會(huì)變得多么糟糕?至少可以說(shuō),凱投宏觀對(duì)2022年年底和2023年年底的預(yù)測(cè)極其悲觀。
他們預(yù)測(cè),到明年這個(gè)時(shí)候,“標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)約三分之一股票”已經(jīng)從最高點(diǎn)下跌到最低點(diǎn)。雖然標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)2022年年底的目標(biāo)點(diǎn)位為3600點(diǎn),但到2023年年底的目標(biāo)點(diǎn)位將下跌到3200點(diǎn)。報(bào)告稱:“我們認(rèn)為這是有道理的,因?yàn)樵谠撝笖?shù)開始下跌之前,其估值已經(jīng)達(dá)到了很高的水平。”事實(shí)上,正如《財(cái)富》雜志曾經(jīng)報(bào)道的,股票估值已經(jīng)過(guò)高,許多人認(rèn)為一場(chǎng)大幅度回調(diào)不可避免。
股市目前的這場(chǎng)“大屠殺”令投資者非常痛苦。《財(cái)富》雜志的伯恩哈德·華納曾經(jīng)就今年上半年的股市寫道:“德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)的主題投資團(tuán)隊(duì)成員吉姆·里德在今天上午發(fā)布的一份投資者報(bào)告中評(píng)價(jià)道:‘這有點(diǎn)像是恐怖故事。’按照其當(dāng)前的價(jià)值,標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)上半年的總收益,已經(jīng)創(chuàng)下60年來(lái)最糟糕的表現(xiàn)。而且在總收益方面,標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)已經(jīng)連續(xù)兩個(gè)季度下滑,這是自[全球金融危機(jī)]以來(lái)的第一次。與此同時(shí),10年期國(guó)債即將創(chuàng)下自1788年喬治·華盛頓擔(dān)任美國(guó)總統(tǒng)之前以來(lái)的最差表現(xiàn)。”
有趣的是,凱投宏觀并未預(yù)測(cè)美國(guó)將發(fā)生經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。該公司認(rèn)為,此次股市下跌與2011年、2015年和2018年的情況類似,都是伴隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)減速,但并未導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。雖然分析師們承認(rèn),所預(yù)測(cè)的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)下跌將是幅度最大的一次,但不會(huì)導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,而且該指數(shù)在下跌之前的高估值也不太可能引發(fā)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。
分析師和經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們對(duì)于是否會(huì)發(fā)生經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退及其可能產(chǎn)生的后果意見(jiàn)不一。但《財(cái)富》雜志在7月1日的報(bào)道認(rèn)為,我們可能實(shí)質(zhì)上已經(jīng)進(jìn)入了經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Fed)的GDPNow跟蹤工具預(yù)測(cè)第二季度的GDP將收縮1%。文章稱:“如果亞特蘭大聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Atlanta Fed)的悲觀預(yù)測(cè)成真,再加上第一季度的GDP下降1.6%,這意味著美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)連續(xù)兩個(gè)季度萎縮,因此已經(jīng)發(fā)生了經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。”
7月4日之后,投資者需要密切關(guān)注許多問(wèn)題:6月的就業(yè)報(bào)告將在美國(guó)獨(dú)立日之后的周五發(fā)布,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)6月會(huì)議的會(huì)議記錄即將發(fā)布,或許可以從中找到一些線索判斷通脹是否將開始減弱。好消息是,今年可怕的上半年已經(jīng)結(jié)束。下半年是否會(huì)變得更加糟糕,讓我們拭目以待。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
2022年上半年,美股不景氣,投資者期待股市能夠迎來(lái)反彈。但凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)的最新報(bào)告卻給有這種想法的人們潑了一盆冷水。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們不僅預(yù)測(cè)今年剩余時(shí)間將是一段痛苦的時(shí)期,他們還預(yù)測(cè)明年的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)(S&P 500)可能進(jìn)一步下跌。首席市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家約翰·希金斯寫道:“我們預(yù)計(jì)今年下半年,美國(guó)股市和國(guó)債很難有好的表現(xiàn)。”
以下是他們對(duì)市場(chǎng)前景的預(yù)測(cè)。希金斯寫道:預(yù)計(jì)美國(guó)國(guó)債收益率再次上漲“將對(duì)股市估值帶來(lái)更大的下行壓力,這將再次使投資者希望股票帶來(lái)更多‘無(wú)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)’回報(bào)。我們認(rèn)為,分析師們對(duì)收益的樂(lè)觀預(yù)期并不符合我們所預(yù)測(cè)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)持續(xù)疲軟和美元進(jìn)一步升值的大環(huán)境,尤其是隨著利潤(rùn)率的不斷上漲。令人失望的收益結(jié)果還會(huì)進(jìn)一步推高股票風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià)。情況會(huì)變得多么糟糕?至少可以說(shuō),凱投宏觀對(duì)2022年年底和2023年年底的預(yù)測(cè)極其悲觀。
他們預(yù)測(cè),到明年這個(gè)時(shí)候,“標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)約三分之一股票”已經(jīng)從最高點(diǎn)下跌到最低點(diǎn)。雖然標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)2022年年底的目標(biāo)點(diǎn)位為3600點(diǎn),但到2023年年底的目標(biāo)點(diǎn)位將下跌到3200點(diǎn)。報(bào)告稱:“我們認(rèn)為這是有道理的,因?yàn)樵谠撝笖?shù)開始下跌之前,其估值已經(jīng)達(dá)到了很高的水平。”事實(shí)上,正如《財(cái)富》雜志曾經(jīng)報(bào)道的,股票估值已經(jīng)過(guò)高,許多人認(rèn)為一場(chǎng)大幅度回調(diào)不可避免。
股市目前的這場(chǎng)“大屠殺”令投資者非常痛苦。《財(cái)富》雜志的伯恩哈德·華納曾經(jīng)就今年上半年的股市寫道:“德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)的主題投資團(tuán)隊(duì)成員吉姆·里德在今天上午發(fā)布的一份投資者報(bào)告中評(píng)價(jià)道:‘這有點(diǎn)像是恐怖故事。’按照其當(dāng)前的價(jià)值,標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)上半年的總收益,已經(jīng)創(chuàng)下60年來(lái)最糟糕的表現(xiàn)。而且在總收益方面,標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)已經(jīng)連續(xù)兩個(gè)季度下滑,這是自[全球金融危機(jī)]以來(lái)的第一次。與此同時(shí),10年期國(guó)債即將創(chuàng)下自1788年喬治·華盛頓擔(dān)任美國(guó)總統(tǒng)之前以來(lái)的最差表現(xiàn)。”
有趣的是,凱投宏觀并未預(yù)測(cè)美國(guó)將發(fā)生經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。該公司認(rèn)為,此次股市下跌與2011年、2015年和2018年的情況類似,都是伴隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)減速,但并未導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。雖然分析師們承認(rèn),所預(yù)測(cè)的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)下跌將是幅度最大的一次,但不會(huì)導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,而且該指數(shù)在下跌之前的高估值也不太可能引發(fā)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。
分析師和經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們對(duì)于是否會(huì)發(fā)生經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退及其可能產(chǎn)生的后果意見(jiàn)不一。但《財(cái)富》雜志在7月1日的報(bào)道認(rèn)為,我們可能實(shí)質(zhì)上已經(jīng)進(jìn)入了經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Fed)的GDPNow跟蹤工具預(yù)測(cè)第二季度的GDP將收縮1%。文章稱:“如果亞特蘭大聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Atlanta Fed)的悲觀預(yù)測(cè)成真,再加上第一季度的GDP下降1.6%,這意味著美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)連續(xù)兩個(gè)季度萎縮,因此已經(jīng)發(fā)生了經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。”
7月4日之后,投資者需要密切關(guān)注許多問(wèn)題:6月的就業(yè)報(bào)告將在美國(guó)獨(dú)立日之后的周五發(fā)布,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)6月會(huì)議的會(huì)議記錄即將發(fā)布,或許可以從中找到一些線索判斷通脹是否將開始減弱。好消息是,今年可怕的上半年已經(jīng)結(jié)束。下半年是否會(huì)變得更加糟糕,讓我們拭目以待。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:劉進(jìn)龍
審校:汪皓
After a dismal first half of 2022 for stocks, investors have been hoping for a comeback story. But a new report from Capital Economics throws cold water on that idea. Not only do economists there think the rest of this year will be painful, they predict the S&P 500 will end next year even lower. “We don’t expect US equities and Treasuries to fare well in the second half of this year,” chief market economist John Higgins writes.
Here's how they are looking at the market. Higgins writes that he expects a renewed rise in Treasury yields "would put further downward pressure on the valuation of the stock market by driving back up the 'risk-free' component of investors’ required return from equities. And we think that analysts’ rosy expectations for earnings are incompatible with the environment of weaker economic growth and further strength in the dollar that we foresee, especially as margins are stretched. A disappointing outcome for earnings could also push up the equity risk premium." How bad will things get? Capital Economics' end-2022 and end-2023 projections are extremely grim to say the least.
They project a peak-to-trough decline of "about a third in the S&P 500" by the time next year is over. While their end-2022 target is 3,600 for the S&P 500, their end-2023 target slumps down to 3,200. "We think this is plausible given the very high valuation of the index before it began to slump," the reports says. Indeed, as Fortune has documented, equity valuations had flown so high that many felt a big correction was inevitable.
And the ongoing carnage has been painful. As Fortune's Bernhard Warner wrote of the first half of the year: "It's 'a bit of a horror story,' concluded Jim Reid, part of Deutsche Bank's thematic research team, commenting in a note to clients this morning. "For what it’s worth, the S&P 500 has now seen its worst H1 total return performance in 60 years. And also in total return terms, it’s fallen for two consecutive quarters for the first time since the [global financial crisis]. Meanwhile, 10-year Treasuries look set...to have recorded their worst H1 since 1788, just before George Washington became President."
Interestingly, one thing Capital Economics does not foresee is a recession. The firm believes the sell-off is similar to periods in 2011, 2015 and 2018 which were accompanied by slowdowns in economic growth but did not result in a recession. While analysts concede the projected decline in the S&P 500 would be one of the largest decreases not to result in a recession, the index's high valuation before the decrease makes a recession unlikely.
Analysts and economists have been split on whether a recession is imminent and how painful it would be. But on July 1 Fortune reported that we may already technically be in a recession. The Fed's GDPNow tracker is now predicting Q2 GDP will contract by 1%. "If the Atlanta Fed’s pessimistic outlook is correct, coupled with the 1.6% decline in GDP seen in the first quarter, it would mean two consecutive quarters of a shrinking economy, and therefore a recession," according to the piece.
Investors will have plenty to watch out for after July 4th: The June employment report will be released the Friday after Independence Day, and the minutes from the Fed’s June meeting are still forthcoming, but should yield some clues as to whether inflation is starting to wane. The good news is that the hellish first half of the year is behind us. But it's not yet clear if the second half will be even worse.