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在美國(guó)找工作依然很容易,被解雇了也無(wú)須擔(dān)心

MEGAN LEONHARDT
2022-05-15

盡管最近有裁員的消息,但求職者不應(yīng)該立刻就感到恐慌。

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圖片來(lái)源:SPENCER PLATT—GETTY IMAGES

本周的商業(yè)新聞?lì)^條可能會(huì)讓求職者擔(dān)心,火熱的市場(chǎng)可能會(huì)降溫。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息。在經(jīng)歷了殘酷的四月之后,道瓊斯指數(shù)和納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)繼續(xù)下跌。在硅谷,有很多傳言稱招聘正在放緩,更多的裁員即將到來(lái)。哦,不要忘記所有關(guān)于經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的話題。

在這場(chǎng)搶座位游戲中,員工們頻繁跳槽,尋求最佳薪酬和福利待遇,音樂(lè)是否即將停止?我們是否都應(yīng)該搶一個(gè)座位并緊緊守住,以便在下一次經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退來(lái)臨時(shí),我們不至于發(fā)現(xiàn)自己沒(méi)有椅子?

專家說(shuō)現(xiàn)在還不是恐慌的時(shí)候。

PNC首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家格斯·福奇(Gus Faucher)表示,美國(guó)開(kāi)始出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)和勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)的一些變化,這是因?yàn)殡S著新冠肺炎疫情消退和美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)開(kāi)始加息,消費(fèi)者行為發(fā)生了變化。

福奇告訴《財(cái)富》雜志,但這些都是“我們?cè)诮?jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張過(guò)程中看到的正常的潮起潮落——并不是經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退即將到來(lái)的跡象。我不會(huì)對(duì)個(gè)別公司的公告作過(guò)多解讀。”

事實(shí)上,根據(jù)美國(guó)勞工統(tǒng)計(jì)局周五公布的最新數(shù)據(jù),美國(guó)雇主在4月份增加了42.8萬(wàn)個(gè)工作崗位。會(huì)計(jì)和咨詢公司均富會(huì)計(jì)師事務(wù)所(Grant Thornton)的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家黛安·斯旺克(Diane Swonk)表示,這可能不像復(fù)蘇初期的一些月度就業(yè)數(shù)字那樣令人瞠目結(jié)舌,但它仍然描繪了一個(gè)強(qiáng)勁的勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)。

福奇說(shuō),總體而言,就業(yè)和工資持續(xù)增長(zhǎng),申請(qǐng)失業(yè)救濟(jì)金的人數(shù)仍然接近歷史最低水平,總體失業(yè)率低于4%,所有這些指標(biāo)都表明美國(guó)工作者的情況仍然非常好。

因此,就目前而言,就業(yè)市場(chǎng)依然火爆。Bankrate.com高級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析師馬克·哈姆里克(Mark Hamrick)認(rèn)為,那些被解雇的人很容易找到新工作,特別是資質(zhì)良好或高技能的工作者。

職位空缺與工作者的比率仍然保持在1.8,與有記錄以來(lái)的第二高點(diǎn)保持一致。“這意味著辭職率將保持在高位。”斯旺克告訴《財(cái)富》雜志。她說(shuō),在辭職率顯著下降之前,美國(guó)需要經(jīng)歷“工作者需求遭受嚴(yán)重打擊”,即比2020年2月危機(jī)前的峰值高出60%以上。

哈姆里克說(shuō),推動(dòng)跳槽的另一個(gè)因素是,在新職位工作的工作者更有可能獲得更高的薪水。“我預(yù)計(jì),至少在短期內(nèi),只要失業(yè)率處于歷史低位,就業(yè)市場(chǎng)就仍會(huì)相當(dāng)活躍。”

盡管如此,對(duì)于尋找新職位的人來(lái)說(shuō),仍有很多好的工作機(jī)會(huì)。但福奇表示,他預(yù)計(jì)跳槽的速度在今年余下的時(shí)間里將會(huì)放緩。他說(shuō):“人們已經(jīng)進(jìn)入了更適合的工作崗位,因此,未來(lái)進(jìn)步的機(jī)會(huì)將更加有限。”

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)降低通脹的措施也可能讓更多的人留在現(xiàn)有工作崗位上。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾(Jerome Powell)承認(rèn),這一過(guò)程“不會(huì)令人愉快”。加息將推高借貸利率——這可能導(dǎo)致更多的公司勒緊褲腰帶過(guò)活。而且,這有可能對(duì)硅谷產(chǎn)生影響,一些專家擔(dān)心,更高的利率可能意味著更少的融資輪次。資本自由流動(dòng)的日子可能要結(jié)束了。然后,正如雅各布姆·卡彭特(Jacob Carpenter)在上周四的《數(shù)據(jù)表》中報(bào)告的那樣,“對(duì)泡沫破裂的擔(dān)憂可能是沒(méi)有根據(jù)的”。

不過(guò),可以說(shuō),最好還是做好充分的準(zhǔn)備。因?yàn)楣ぷ髡邆儸F(xiàn)在擁有的影響力可能不會(huì)持續(xù)到今年底。而且,由于沒(méi)有人想成為“最后一個(gè)被雇傭的人”,求職者可能想確保他們正在尋找的是一份穩(wěn)定的工作。“對(duì)于大多數(shù)成年人來(lái)說(shuō),他們應(yīng)該把重點(diǎn)放在工作的長(zhǎng)期潛力上,但情況并非總是如此。”福奇說(shuō)。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:中慧言-王芳

本周的商業(yè)新聞?lì)^條可能會(huì)讓求職者擔(dān)心,火熱的市場(chǎng)可能會(huì)降溫。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)加息。在經(jīng)歷了殘酷的四月之后,道瓊斯指數(shù)和納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)繼續(xù)下跌。在硅谷,有很多傳言稱招聘正在放緩,更多的裁員即將到來(lái)。哦,不要忘記所有關(guān)于經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的話題。

在這場(chǎng)搶座位游戲中,員工們頻繁跳槽,尋求最佳薪酬和福利待遇,音樂(lè)是否即將停止?我們是否都應(yīng)該搶一個(gè)座位并緊緊守住,以便在下一次經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退來(lái)臨時(shí),我們不至于發(fā)現(xiàn)自己沒(méi)有椅子?

專家說(shuō)現(xiàn)在還不是恐慌的時(shí)候。

PNC首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家格斯·福奇(Gus Faucher)表示,美國(guó)開(kāi)始出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)和勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)的一些變化,這是因?yàn)殡S著新冠肺炎疫情消退和美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)開(kāi)始加息,消費(fèi)者行為發(fā)生了變化。

福奇告訴《財(cái)富》雜志,但這些都是“我們?cè)诮?jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張過(guò)程中看到的正常的潮起潮落——并不是經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退即將到來(lái)的跡象。我不會(huì)對(duì)個(gè)別公司的公告作過(guò)多解讀。”

事實(shí)上,根據(jù)美國(guó)勞工統(tǒng)計(jì)局周五公布的最新數(shù)據(jù),美國(guó)雇主在4月份增加了42.8萬(wàn)個(gè)工作崗位。會(huì)計(jì)和咨詢公司均富會(huì)計(jì)師事務(wù)所(Grant Thornton)的首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家黛安·斯旺克(Diane Swonk)表示,這可能不像復(fù)蘇初期的一些月度就業(yè)數(shù)字那樣令人瞠目結(jié)舌,但它仍然描繪了一個(gè)強(qiáng)勁的勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)。

福奇說(shuō),總體而言,就業(yè)和工資持續(xù)增長(zhǎng),申請(qǐng)失業(yè)救濟(jì)金的人數(shù)仍然接近歷史最低水平,總體失業(yè)率低于4%,所有這些指標(biāo)都表明美國(guó)工作者的情況仍然非常好。

因此,就目前而言,就業(yè)市場(chǎng)依然火爆。Bankrate.com高級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)分析師馬克·哈姆里克(Mark Hamrick)認(rèn)為,那些被解雇的人很容易找到新工作,特別是資質(zhì)良好或高技能的工作者。

職位空缺與工作者的比率仍然保持在1.8,與有記錄以來(lái)的第二高點(diǎn)保持一致。“這意味著辭職率將保持在高位。”斯旺克告訴《財(cái)富》雜志。她說(shuō),在辭職率顯著下降之前,美國(guó)需要經(jīng)歷“工作者需求遭受嚴(yán)重打擊”,即比2020年2月危機(jī)前的峰值高出60%以上。

哈姆里克說(shuō),推動(dòng)跳槽的另一個(gè)因素是,在新職位工作的工作者更有可能獲得更高的薪水。“我預(yù)計(jì),至少在短期內(nèi),只要失業(yè)率處于歷史低位,就業(yè)市場(chǎng)就仍會(huì)相當(dāng)活躍。”

盡管如此,對(duì)于尋找新職位的人來(lái)說(shuō),仍有很多好的工作機(jī)會(huì)。但福奇表示,他預(yù)計(jì)跳槽的速度在今年余下的時(shí)間里將會(huì)放緩。他說(shuō):“人們已經(jīng)進(jìn)入了更適合的工作崗位,因此,未來(lái)進(jìn)步的機(jī)會(huì)將更加有限。”

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)降低通脹的措施也可能讓更多的人留在現(xiàn)有工作崗位上。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾(Jerome Powell)承認(rèn),這一過(guò)程“不會(huì)令人愉快”。加息將推高借貸利率——這可能導(dǎo)致更多的公司勒緊褲腰帶過(guò)活。而且,這有可能對(duì)硅谷產(chǎn)生影響,一些專家擔(dān)心,更高的利率可能意味著更少的融資輪次。資本自由流動(dòng)的日子可能要結(jié)束了。然后,正如雅各布姆·卡彭特(Jacob Carpenter)在上周四的《數(shù)據(jù)表》中報(bào)告的那樣,“對(duì)泡沫破裂的擔(dān)憂可能是沒(méi)有根據(jù)的”。

不過(guò),可以說(shuō),最好還是做好充分的準(zhǔn)備。因?yàn)楣ぷ髡邆儸F(xiàn)在擁有的影響力可能不會(huì)持續(xù)到今年底。而且,由于沒(méi)有人想成為“最后一個(gè)被雇傭的人”,求職者可能想確保他們正在尋找的是一份穩(wěn)定的工作。“對(duì)于大多數(shù)成年人來(lái)說(shuō),他們應(yīng)該把重點(diǎn)放在工作的長(zhǎng)期潛力上,但情況并非總是如此。”福奇說(shuō)。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:中慧言-王芳

This week's business news headlines might have job-seekers worrying that the hot market could be cooling. The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates. The Dow and Nasdaq continued to fall after a cruel April. And there's a lot of buzz in Silicon Valley that hiring is slowing and more layoffs are on the horizon. Oh, and don't forget about all that recession talk.

In this game of musical chairs, where employees are hopping from job to job in search of the best pay and benefits package, is the music about to stop? Should we all be grabbing a seat and holding on tight so we don't find ourselves without a chair when the next downturn comes?

Experts say it's not time to panic—yet.

Yes, the U.S. is starting to see some changes in the economy—and in the labor market—due to changes in consumer behavior as the pandemic recedes and the Fed starts to raise interest rates, says PNC Chief Economist Gus Faucher.

But these are the “normal sorts of ebbs and flows that we see during expansions—not an indication of imminent recession," Faucher tells Fortune. "I wouldn’t read too much into individual company announcements."

In fact, U.S. employers added 428,000 jobs in April, according to the latest data released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That might not be as jaw-dropping as some of the monthly job numbers seen earlier in the recovery, but it still depicts a strong labor market, says Diane Swonk, chief economist for the accounting and consulting firm Grant Thornton.

Overall, there’s continued job and wage growth, unemployment benefit claims are still near record lows, and the overall unemployment rate is below 4%—all indicators that things are still very good for American workers, Faucher says.

So for now, the job market is still hot. Those who have been laid off will easily find new jobs, particularly among well qualified or highly skilled workers, argues Mark Hamrick, Bankrate.com senior economic analyst.

The ratio of job openings to workers remains at 1.8, matching the second highest on record. “That means quit rates will remain elevated,” Swonk tells Fortune. The U.S. needs to see a "much more dramatic blow to the demand for workers," which is more than 60% above the pre-crisis peak of February 2020, before quit rates drop significantly, she says.

Another factor driving all the job-hopping is that workers who take new roles are more likely to see higher pay, Hamrick says. “I would expect the job market to remain quite dynamic at least in the near-term and as long as the unemployment rate is at historically low levels.”

Still, while there are lots of good opportunities out there for people looking for new roles, Faucher says he expects job-hopping is going to slow over the rest of this year. “People have moved into jobs that are better fits, and so the opportunities for improvement going forward will be more limited,” he says.

The Fed’s drive to lower inflation may also keep more people in their seats, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledging the ride was "not gonna be pleasant." Rate hikes will push borrowing rates much higher—and that could cause more companies to tighten their belts. And there's potential this could have an impact on Silicon Valley, where some experts are concerned that higher interest rates might mean lower funding rounds. The days of free-flowing capital could be ending. Then again, as Jacob Carpenter reported in Thursday's Data Sheet, "fears of a bubble bursting are likely unfounded."

Still, it's arguably better to be over prepared, as the leverage workers have now may not last past this year. And since no one wants to be the "last one hired," job seekers may want to make sure they're looking for a stable position. “For most adults, the focus should be on the long-term potential for a job, but that’s always the case,” Faucher says.

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