納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)(NASDAQ)的下跌是一件注定會(huì)發(fā)生的事情,而且該指數(shù)目前的跌幅還遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)沒(méi)有觸底。對(duì)于現(xiàn)在的美股市場(chǎng)而言,現(xiàn)實(shí)的引力太過(guò)沉重了,再恢宏的科技?jí)粝攵嫉搅宿Z然落地的時(shí)候。在過(guò)去不到三年的時(shí)間里,納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)流行的是“不惜一切代價(jià)創(chuàng)新”,但現(xiàn)在投資者已經(jīng)逐漸意識(shí)到,該指數(shù)的這些股票的收益率還是太低了,增長(zhǎng)速度不足以給你帶來(lái)可觀的回報(bào)。原因很簡(jiǎn)單,這些股票還是太貴了,在經(jīng)歷了一段較長(zhǎng)的瘋漲期之后,股市又回到了基本面說(shuō)話的時(shí)候。之前的股價(jià)越瘋狂,現(xiàn)在的下跌就會(huì)越嚴(yán)重——而且很有可能我們現(xiàn)在還處在熊市的早期階段。
現(xiàn)實(shí)引力將一切拉回地面
納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)到底要跌到哪里才算完?為了給出一個(gè)合理預(yù)測(cè),我們先回顧一下那些在長(zhǎng)期看來(lái)比較靠譜的股市指標(biāo),好對(duì)納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)到底值多少錢有一個(gè)基本概念。首先,代表該指數(shù)大部分估值的納斯達(dá)克100指數(shù)(NASDAQ 100)已經(jīng)進(jìn)入了回調(diào)區(qū)間,該指數(shù)于1月21日星期五收于14,438點(diǎn),較2021年年終下跌10%,較2021年11月19日16573點(diǎn)的歷史最高點(diǎn)下跌13%。在這一波大跌中,首當(dāng)其沖的是“宅家經(jīng)濟(jì)”的代表者,比如Zoom(下跌41%)、Netflix(下跌42%)、Peloton(下跌43%)和Docusign(下跌56%)。
然而到目前為止,納斯達(dá)克100指數(shù)仍未跌至一個(gè)理想的買入點(diǎn),它仍然被嚴(yán)重高估了。因?yàn)樽罱鼛啄辏{斯達(dá)克100的價(jià)格增速遠(yuǎn)高于收益,換言之就是投資者的收益變得越來(lái)越低。因此,投資者要想獲得合理收益,就必須指望納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)漲得更高,而這種期望也變得愈發(fā)不切實(shí)際。目前看來(lái),在投資收益回升之前,散戶和機(jī)構(gòu)還會(huì)繼續(xù)拋售持有的股份。
價(jià)格增速遠(yuǎn)超利潤(rùn),將納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)逼至拐點(diǎn)
現(xiàn)在,我們假設(shè)納斯達(dá)克100是一家綜合了所有組成股的市值、利潤(rùn)和收入的單一公司,這家公司的名字就叫“納指100”。在2018年年底,“納指100”公司的市值是7.46萬(wàn)億美元,按美國(guó)通用會(huì)計(jì)準(zhǔn)則(GAAP)計(jì)算,它當(dāng)年四個(gè)季度的凈利潤(rùn)達(dá)到3340億美元,市盈率為22.3倍,遠(yuǎn)高于該指數(shù)的長(zhǎng)期均值。到了2019年,“納指100”的業(yè)績(jī)也十分亮眼,漲幅達(dá)34%。但推動(dòng)股價(jià)上漲的主要原因并不是利潤(rùn)上漲,當(dāng)年度它的利潤(rùn)只上漲了不到5%,勉強(qiáng)達(dá)到3500億美元。但它的估值增幅達(dá)到了利潤(rùn)增幅的7倍,估值達(dá)到10.1萬(wàn)億美元,市盈率也提高至28.9倍。
但是,這對(duì)“納指100”還僅僅是個(gè)熱身而已。2020年,它的市值再次增長(zhǎng)43%,市值達(dá)到15.5萬(wàn)億美元,但利潤(rùn)仍然差強(qiáng)人意,只有3730億美元,增幅為6.6%。但它的市盈率已然飆升至41.5倍,幾乎達(dá)到兩年前的兩倍。
2021年,納指的狂歡仍未停止。到2021年年末,納指100的市值又增長(zhǎng)了21%,達(dá)到20.1萬(wàn)億美元。不過(guò)這一次,它的利潤(rùn)也飆升50%,達(dá)到5610億美元,使得納指100的市盈率回落到35.8倍。但是在這三年里,納指100的股價(jià)飆升170%,達(dá)到利潤(rùn)增幅(69%)的兩倍半,其結(jié)果就是,按市盈率計(jì)算(從22倍到36倍),納指100股價(jià)的水份可能高達(dá)60%。
從2021年年底以來(lái),納指的估值已經(jīng)下跌了11.5%,跌至17.8萬(wàn)億美元,市盈率也回落至31.7倍。雖然這個(gè)數(shù)值仍然貌似較高,但實(shí)際上已經(jīng)是人為被壓低了的。這是因?yàn)槲覀兛吹降摹胺帜浮保簿褪羌{指100的收益,仍然被高度夸大了,而且接下來(lái)注定會(huì)跌落或者趨平。
利率驟降導(dǎo)致市盈率增速遠(yuǎn)超利潤(rùn)
對(duì)年初這波大跌,“股神”沃倫·巴菲特的解釋或許最為到位——美股市場(chǎng)可以簡(jiǎn)單理解為高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的股票與低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的政府債券的競(jìng)爭(zhēng),當(dāng)債券的收益率下降時(shí),固定收益證券的吸引力就會(huì)下降,資金就會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)向股市。投資者會(huì)花更多的錢購(gòu)買股票,但他們的投資收益仍然高于購(gòu)買美國(guó)國(guó)債的收益。此外,股票還會(huì)提供股息收益,而且股市還會(huì)持續(xù)進(jìn)行資本擴(kuò)張,這些都是債券市場(chǎng)所不具備的。這此背景下,利率大幅下降通常會(huì)引發(fā)市盈率大幅上升——就像20世紀(jì)80年代初至90年代中期所發(fā)生的那樣。
從2018年年底到現(xiàn)在,10年期美債的收益率已經(jīng)從3.2%下降至1.75%。但重要的是,我們不能只看電視和網(wǎng)站上公布的所謂“名義”收益率的下降,而是應(yīng)該考慮根據(jù)通脹調(diào)整后的數(shù)字——也就是所謂的“實(shí)際收益率”。正是實(shí)際收益率的變化才導(dǎo)致了股價(jià)的漲跌。而在最近三年的時(shí)間里,這一關(guān)鍵指標(biāo)已經(jīng)從+1.1%波動(dòng)下調(diào)至目前的-0.58%。
有人可能會(huì)問(wèn):你們是如何得出這個(gè)數(shù)字的?答案是,它是用1.7%的長(zhǎng)期收益率減去未來(lái)10年的預(yù)期年通漲率2.33%(根據(jù)通脹調(diào)整后計(jì)算)得出的。而納指100的上一輪大漲,正是由于上次美債實(shí)際收益率的歷史性大跌導(dǎo)致的,從而導(dǎo)致納指的股價(jià)漲幅遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)了它的利潤(rùn)漲幅。
納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)究竟值多少錢?
股市的市盈率是由“資本價(jià)格”決定的,資本價(jià)格是指投資者此時(shí)此刻購(gòu)買股票所要求的回報(bào)率。與資本價(jià)格較為接近的,是當(dāng)前股市的“凈收益率”,也就是你花100美元購(gòu)買一只或者一組股票(比如納斯達(dá)克100)所“獲得”的利潤(rùn)。如果你用100美元除以當(dāng)前的市盈率31.7%,得到的凈收益率就是3.15%。換言之,你每持有100美元的納指100股份,可以為你帶來(lái)3.15美元的利潤(rùn)。以歷史標(biāo)準(zhǔn)看,這個(gè)剛過(guò)3%的利潤(rùn)率是比較低的。而在2021年年底科技股開(kāi)始暴跌之前,這個(gè)數(shù)值比現(xiàn)在還要低得多,僅為2.8%。投資者之所以在股市上愿意接受這么低的凈收益率,是因?yàn)閭袌?chǎng)的收益率比這還慘。
但這種情況很快就會(huì)有所轉(zhuǎn)變。2021年12月,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)已經(jīng)表示將在2023年將短期聯(lián)邦基金利率從目前幾乎為零的水平提高至1.6%,到2024年提高到2.1%,而且長(zhǎng)期有望提高至2.5%。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾也在今年1月宣布,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將盡一切努力抑制通脹,這或許意味著美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將更高更快加息。由于短期利率提高會(huì)推高所有長(zhǎng)期債券的收益率,因此美債的實(shí)際收益率或?qū)⒑芸燹D(zhuǎn)負(fù)為正。
下一步或許還有大跌
至于美債的實(shí)際收益率會(huì)回升至正百分之多少,目前還無(wú)從知曉,在這個(gè)問(wèn)題上,我們不妨保守一些。美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)預(yù)算辦公室(Congressional Budget Office)對(duì)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率的預(yù)測(cè)大概是在2%的區(qū)間。實(shí)際利率的變化一般與GDP增長(zhǎng)率不會(huì)相差太大。但如果外國(guó)繼續(xù)將美元作為避風(fēng)港,那么美國(guó)的實(shí)際利率可能會(huì)遠(yuǎn)低于2%。據(jù)我們估計(jì),美國(guó)的實(shí)際利率會(huì)迅速?gòu)漠?dāng)前的-0.58%上升至+1%。以歷史標(biāo)準(zhǔn)衡量,這仍然是一個(gè)非常低的數(shù)字。
現(xiàn)在讓我們來(lái)做一道算術(shù)題。如果美國(guó)的實(shí)際利率達(dá)到了1%,那么投資者將要求我們的“納指100”公司提供更高的投資回報(bào)。屆時(shí)他們將不滿足于3.17%的回報(bào)率,而是要考慮到利率上漲的因素,也就是他們從無(wú)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的債券中也能夠獲得的那部分收益。如果美國(guó)的利率提高到+1%,那就意味著實(shí)際利率將上升1.58%——也就是用+1%減去今天的-0.58%。如果投資者預(yù)計(jì)這種情況一定會(huì)發(fā)生,他們就會(huì)要求投資回報(bào)率至少要在今天的基礎(chǔ)上提高1.58%。因此,用3.17%加上1.58%,投資者的預(yù)期回報(bào)率就變成了4.75%。
屆時(shí),納指100的市盈率將變成100除以4.75%,也就是21倍。以這個(gè)市盈率為基準(zhǔn),按當(dāng)前的利潤(rùn)5610億美元計(jì)算,納指100將跌至11840點(diǎn),較1月21日收盤時(shí)的14438點(diǎn)低了18%,比2021年11月的最高點(diǎn)更是跌了29%。
但是這還沒(méi)完。
最近又到了上市公司發(fā)財(cái)報(bào)的日子,但各大科技股的成績(jī)都很令人失望——包括令人大跌眼鏡的Netflix,這些也是一個(gè)不祥的預(yù)兆。不可否認(rèn),納指100的收益是有水分的。2018年,納指100實(shí)現(xiàn)了13.8%的凈利潤(rùn),2021年它的利潤(rùn)率更飆升至17.0%。這么高的利潤(rùn)率是不可能持久的。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家羅伯特·席勒曾經(jīng)提出過(guò)一個(gè)周期調(diào)整市盈率指數(shù)(CAPE),該指數(shù)通過(guò)將利潤(rùn)平攤到一個(gè)10年的周期里來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)利潤(rùn)的“正常化”,這個(gè)指數(shù)表明,雖然納指100在2021年取得了異乎尋常的好成績(jī),但它的凈利潤(rùn)也應(yīng)該按照周期調(diào)整至4000億美元,而不是名義上的5610億美元。即便我們假設(shè)“宅家經(jīng)濟(jì)”可以將納指100的長(zhǎng)期利潤(rùn)推高至4500億美元,那么以21倍的市盈率計(jì)算,納指100也應(yīng)該回落到9500點(diǎn)才算正常。
納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)到底值多少錢?根據(jù)本文筆者分析,9500點(diǎn)左右才是它的真正價(jià)值,這意味著納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)仍然有34%左右的跌落空間。在1998年到2000年的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫崩盤后,我們?cè)?jīng)見(jiàn)證過(guò)這樣慘烈的景象,當(dāng)時(shí)崩掉的都是互聯(lián)網(wǎng)領(lǐng)域估值巨大但沒(méi)有實(shí)際利潤(rùn)的新玩家。這一次倒霉的應(yīng)該是那些虛假繁榮的高市盈率公司。隨著美元利率和幾個(gè)“宅家經(jīng)濟(jì)”大佬的利潤(rùn)率逐漸回歸正常水平,科技股的市盈率和利潤(rùn)率預(yù)計(jì)都會(huì)一同回落。雖然這個(gè)回歸正常的過(guò)程必然十分痛苦。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:樸成奎
納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)(NASDAQ)的下跌是一件注定會(huì)發(fā)生的事情,而且該指數(shù)目前的跌幅還遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)沒(méi)有觸底。對(duì)于現(xiàn)在的美股市場(chǎng)而言,現(xiàn)實(shí)的引力太過(guò)沉重了,再恢宏的科技?jí)粝攵嫉搅宿Z然落地的時(shí)候。在過(guò)去不到三年的時(shí)間里,納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)流行的是“不惜一切代價(jià)創(chuàng)新”,但現(xiàn)在投資者已經(jīng)逐漸意識(shí)到,該指數(shù)的這些股票的收益率還是太低了,增長(zhǎng)速度不足以給你帶來(lái)可觀的回報(bào)。原因很簡(jiǎn)單,這些股票還是太貴了,在經(jīng)歷了一段較長(zhǎng)的瘋漲期之后,股市又回到了基本面說(shuō)話的時(shí)候。之前的股價(jià)越瘋狂,現(xiàn)在的下跌就會(huì)越嚴(yán)重——而且很有可能我們現(xiàn)在還處在熊市的早期階段。
現(xiàn)實(shí)引力將一切拉回地面
納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)到底要跌到哪里才算完?為了給出一個(gè)合理預(yù)測(cè),我們先回顧一下那些在長(zhǎng)期看來(lái)比較靠譜的股市指標(biāo),好對(duì)納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)到底值多少錢有一個(gè)基本概念。首先,代表該指數(shù)大部分估值的納斯達(dá)克100指數(shù)(NASDAQ 100)已經(jīng)進(jìn)入了回調(diào)區(qū)間,該指數(shù)于1月21日星期五收于14,438點(diǎn),較2021年年終下跌10%,較2021年11月19日16573點(diǎn)的歷史最高點(diǎn)下跌13%。在這一波大跌中,首當(dāng)其沖的是“宅家經(jīng)濟(jì)”的代表者,比如Zoom(下跌41%)、Netflix(下跌42%)、Peloton(下跌43%)和Docusign(下跌56%)。
然而到目前為止,納斯達(dá)克100指數(shù)仍未跌至一個(gè)理想的買入點(diǎn),它仍然被嚴(yán)重高估了。因?yàn)樽罱鼛啄辏{斯達(dá)克100的價(jià)格增速遠(yuǎn)高于收益,換言之就是投資者的收益變得越來(lái)越低。因此,投資者要想獲得合理收益,就必須指望納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)漲得更高,而這種期望也變得愈發(fā)不切實(shí)際。目前看來(lái),在投資收益回升之前,散戶和機(jī)構(gòu)還會(huì)繼續(xù)拋售持有的股份。
價(jià)格增速遠(yuǎn)超利潤(rùn),將納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)逼至拐點(diǎn)
現(xiàn)在,我們假設(shè)納斯達(dá)克100是一家綜合了所有組成股的市值、利潤(rùn)和收入的單一公司,這家公司的名字就叫“納指100”。在2018年年底,“納指100”公司的市值是7.46萬(wàn)億美元,按美國(guó)通用會(huì)計(jì)準(zhǔn)則(GAAP)計(jì)算,它當(dāng)年四個(gè)季度的凈利潤(rùn)達(dá)到3340億美元,市盈率為22.3倍,遠(yuǎn)高于該指數(shù)的長(zhǎng)期均值。到了2019年,“納指100”的業(yè)績(jī)也十分亮眼,漲幅達(dá)34%。但推動(dòng)股價(jià)上漲的主要原因并不是利潤(rùn)上漲,當(dāng)年度它的利潤(rùn)只上漲了不到5%,勉強(qiáng)達(dá)到3500億美元。但它的估值增幅達(dá)到了利潤(rùn)增幅的7倍,估值達(dá)到10.1萬(wàn)億美元,市盈率也提高至28.9倍。
但是,這對(duì)“納指100”還僅僅是個(gè)熱身而已。2020年,它的市值再次增長(zhǎng)43%,市值達(dá)到15.5萬(wàn)億美元,但利潤(rùn)仍然差強(qiáng)人意,只有3730億美元,增幅為6.6%。但它的市盈率已然飆升至41.5倍,幾乎達(dá)到兩年前的兩倍。
2021年,納指的狂歡仍未停止。到2021年年末,納指100的市值又增長(zhǎng)了21%,達(dá)到20.1萬(wàn)億美元。不過(guò)這一次,它的利潤(rùn)也飆升50%,達(dá)到5610億美元,使得納指100的市盈率回落到35.8倍。但是在這三年里,納指100的股價(jià)飆升170%,達(dá)到利潤(rùn)增幅(69%)的兩倍半,其結(jié)果就是,按市盈率計(jì)算(從22倍到36倍),納指100股價(jià)的水份可能高達(dá)60%。
從2021年年底以來(lái),納指的估值已經(jīng)下跌了11.5%,跌至17.8萬(wàn)億美元,市盈率也回落至31.7倍。雖然這個(gè)數(shù)值仍然貌似較高,但實(shí)際上已經(jīng)是人為被壓低了的。這是因?yàn)槲覀兛吹降摹胺帜浮保簿褪羌{指100的收益,仍然被高度夸大了,而且接下來(lái)注定會(huì)跌落或者趨平。
利率驟降導(dǎo)致市盈率增速遠(yuǎn)超利潤(rùn)
對(duì)年初這波大跌,“股神”沃倫·巴菲特的解釋或許最為到位——美股市場(chǎng)可以簡(jiǎn)單理解為高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的股票與低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的政府債券的競(jìng)爭(zhēng),當(dāng)債券的收益率下降時(shí),固定收益證券的吸引力就會(huì)下降,資金就會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)向股市。投資者會(huì)花更多的錢購(gòu)買股票,但他們的投資收益仍然高于購(gòu)買美國(guó)國(guó)債的收益。此外,股票還會(huì)提供股息收益,而且股市還會(huì)持續(xù)進(jìn)行資本擴(kuò)張,這些都是債券市場(chǎng)所不具備的。這此背景下,利率大幅下降通常會(huì)引發(fā)市盈率大幅上升——就像20世紀(jì)80年代初至90年代中期所發(fā)生的那樣。
從2018年年底到現(xiàn)在,10年期美債的收益率已經(jīng)從3.2%下降至1.75%。但重要的是,我們不能只看電視和網(wǎng)站上公布的所謂“名義”收益率的下降,而是應(yīng)該考慮根據(jù)通脹調(diào)整后的數(shù)字——也就是所謂的“實(shí)際收益率”。正是實(shí)際收益率的變化才導(dǎo)致了股價(jià)的漲跌。而在最近三年的時(shí)間里,這一關(guān)鍵指標(biāo)已經(jīng)從+1.1%波動(dòng)下調(diào)至目前的-0.58%。
有人可能會(huì)問(wèn):你們是如何得出這個(gè)數(shù)字的?答案是,它是用1.7%的長(zhǎng)期收益率減去未來(lái)10年的預(yù)期年通漲率2.33%(根據(jù)通脹調(diào)整后計(jì)算)得出的。而納指100的上一輪大漲,正是由于上次美債實(shí)際收益率的歷史性大跌導(dǎo)致的,從而導(dǎo)致納指的股價(jià)漲幅遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)了它的利潤(rùn)漲幅。
納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)究竟值多少錢?
股市的市盈率是由“資本價(jià)格”決定的,資本價(jià)格是指投資者此時(shí)此刻購(gòu)買股票所要求的回報(bào)率。與資本價(jià)格較為接近的,是當(dāng)前股市的“凈收益率”,也就是你花100美元購(gòu)買一只或者一組股票(比如納斯達(dá)克100)所“獲得”的利潤(rùn)。如果你用100美元除以當(dāng)前的市盈率31.7%,得到的凈收益率就是3.15%。換言之,你每持有100美元的納指100股份,可以為你帶來(lái)3.15美元的利潤(rùn)。以歷史標(biāo)準(zhǔn)看,這個(gè)剛過(guò)3%的利潤(rùn)率是比較低的。而在2021年年底科技股開(kāi)始暴跌之前,這個(gè)數(shù)值比現(xiàn)在還要低得多,僅為2.8%。投資者之所以在股市上愿意接受這么低的凈收益率,是因?yàn)閭袌?chǎng)的收益率比這還慘。
但這種情況很快就會(huì)有所轉(zhuǎn)變。2021年12月,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)(Federal Reserve)已經(jīng)表示將在2023年將短期聯(lián)邦基金利率從目前幾乎為零的水平提高至1.6%,到2024年提高到2.1%,而且長(zhǎng)期有望提高至2.5%。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾也在今年1月宣布,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將盡一切努力抑制通脹,這或許意味著美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)將更高更快加息。由于短期利率提高會(huì)推高所有長(zhǎng)期債券的收益率,因此美債的實(shí)際收益率或?qū)⒑芸燹D(zhuǎn)負(fù)為正。
下一步或許還有大跌
至于美債的實(shí)際收益率會(huì)回升至正百分之多少,目前還無(wú)從知曉,在這個(gè)問(wèn)題上,我們不妨保守一些。美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)預(yù)算辦公室(Congressional Budget Office)對(duì)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率的預(yù)測(cè)大概是在2%的區(qū)間。實(shí)際利率的變化一般與GDP增長(zhǎng)率不會(huì)相差太大。但如果外國(guó)繼續(xù)將美元作為避風(fēng)港,那么美國(guó)的實(shí)際利率可能會(huì)遠(yuǎn)低于2%。據(jù)我們估計(jì),美國(guó)的實(shí)際利率會(huì)迅速?gòu)漠?dāng)前的-0.58%上升至+1%。以歷史標(biāo)準(zhǔn)衡量,這仍然是一個(gè)非常低的數(shù)字。
現(xiàn)在讓我們來(lái)做一道算術(shù)題。如果美國(guó)的實(shí)際利率達(dá)到了1%,那么投資者將要求我們的“納指100”公司提供更高的投資回報(bào)。屆時(shí)他們將不滿足于3.17%的回報(bào)率,而是要考慮到利率上漲的因素,也就是他們從無(wú)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的債券中也能夠獲得的那部分收益。如果美國(guó)的利率提高到+1%,那就意味著實(shí)際利率將上升1.58%——也就是用+1%減去今天的-0.58%。如果投資者預(yù)計(jì)這種情況一定會(huì)發(fā)生,他們就會(huì)要求投資回報(bào)率至少要在今天的基礎(chǔ)上提高1.58%。因此,用3.17%加上1.58%,投資者的預(yù)期回報(bào)率就變成了4.75%。
屆時(shí),納指100的市盈率將變成100除以4.75%,也就是21倍。以這個(gè)市盈率為基準(zhǔn),按當(dāng)前的利潤(rùn)5610億美元計(jì)算,納指100將跌至11840點(diǎn),較1月21日收盤時(shí)的14438點(diǎn)低了18%,比2021年11月的最高點(diǎn)更是跌了29%。
但是這還沒(méi)完。
最近又到了上市公司發(fā)財(cái)報(bào)的日子,但各大科技股的成績(jī)都很令人失望——包括令人大跌眼鏡的Netflix,這些也是一個(gè)不祥的預(yù)兆。不可否認(rèn),納指100的收益是有水分的。2018年,納指100實(shí)現(xiàn)了13.8%的凈利潤(rùn),2021年它的利潤(rùn)率更飆升至17.0%。這么高的利潤(rùn)率是不可能持久的。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家羅伯特·席勒曾經(jīng)提出過(guò)一個(gè)周期調(diào)整市盈率指數(shù)(CAPE),該指數(shù)通過(guò)將利潤(rùn)平攤到一個(gè)10年的周期里來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)利潤(rùn)的“正常化”,這個(gè)指數(shù)表明,雖然納指100在2021年取得了異乎尋常的好成績(jī),但它的凈利潤(rùn)也應(yīng)該按照周期調(diào)整至4000億美元,而不是名義上的5610億美元。即便我們假設(shè)“宅家經(jīng)濟(jì)”可以將納指100的長(zhǎng)期利潤(rùn)推高至4500億美元,那么以21倍的市盈率計(jì)算,納指100也應(yīng)該回落到9500點(diǎn)才算正常。
納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)到底值多少錢?根據(jù)本文筆者分析,9500點(diǎn)左右才是它的真正價(jià)值,這意味著納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)仍然有34%左右的跌落空間。在1998年到2000年的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫崩盤后,我們?cè)?jīng)見(jiàn)證過(guò)這樣慘烈的景象,當(dāng)時(shí)崩掉的都是互聯(lián)網(wǎng)領(lǐng)域估值巨大但沒(méi)有實(shí)際利潤(rùn)的新玩家。這一次倒霉的應(yīng)該是那些虛假繁榮的高市盈率公司。隨著美元利率和幾個(gè)“宅家經(jīng)濟(jì)”大佬的利潤(rùn)率逐漸回歸正常水平,科技股的市盈率和利潤(rùn)率預(yù)計(jì)都會(huì)一同回落。雖然這個(gè)回歸正常的過(guò)程必然十分痛苦。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:樸成奎
The NASDAQ's fall was bound to happen, and it's still not nearly deep enough to hit bedrock. The powerful momentum driving tech's shooting stars ever skywards is finally surrendering to market gravity. The "innovation-at-any-price" high spirits that sent the NASDAQ shooting into the stratosphere over less than three years, is giving way to the realization that its members can't grow profits nearly fast enough to give you a decent return. The reason is basic: These stocks are still just too damn expensive. Put simply, the fundamentals are taking hold following a long and crazy ride. The more unhinged prices became, the steeper the fall that was bound to follow––and most likely, we're witnessing the early stages of that inevitable descent right now.
Gravity is finally taking hold
How deeply will the NASDAQ drop? To make a reasonable estimate, let's unpack the traditional metrics that are reliable predictors of equity price trends over long periods, and address the question: What's the NASDAQ really worth? The NASDAQ 100 that represents the vast bulk of the overall index's valuation has already entered correction territory, shedding 10% from the close of 2021 to stand at 14,438 at the close on Friday, January 21, and down 13% from its all-time high, set on November 19, of 16,573. Among the glamour, stay-at-home economy luminaries that suffered the biggest hits since then: Zoom (down 41%), Netflix (-42%), Peloton (-43%), and Docusign (-56%).
So far the slide's too modest to make the NASDAQ 100 even close to a good buy. It remains hugely overvalued because in recent years, its prices have risen far faster than earnings, giving investors fewer and fewer cents in profit for each dollar they're paying. That disconnect has raised the bar for the future earnings growth the index must reach to deliver an acceptable return beyond what's even remotely achievable. Now, it looks like folks and funds will keep dumping until they're getting a lot more bang for their buck.
Prices rose much faster than profits, putting the NASDAQ in a bind
Let's look the NASDAQ 100 as one big company by combining its members' market caps, profits and revenues. We'll call it One Hundred, Inc. At the close of 2018, One Hundred, Inc. sported a market cap or "price" of $7.46 trillion, and posted GAAP net profits, measured over the trailing four quarters, of $334 billion, for a PE of 22.3, well above the index's long-term average. In 2019, One Hundred enjoyed a banner year, gaining 34%. It wasn't a profit surge that propelled the increase; earnings rose less than 5% to $350 billion. Its valuation jumped by seven-times as fast as profits to $10.1 trillion, lifting its multiple to 28.9.
One Hundred, Inc. was just warming up. For 2020, it clinched a 43% gain, lifting its market cap to $15.5 trillion. But profits lagged once again, reaching just $373 billion, an increase of 6.6%. Its PE soared to 41.5, almost twice the figure two years earlier.
The party kept roaring in 2021. By year end, One Hundred had gained another 21%, sending its valuation to $20.1 trillion. This time, profits danced, jumping by 50% to $561 billion. That performance lowered its PE to 35.8. Still, over those three years, One Hundred's price rose 170%, two-and-a-half times its profit growth of 69%. Result: One Hundred, Inc.'s shares got 60% more expensive as its PE jumped from roughly 22 to 36.
Since the close of 2021, our NASDAQ, Inc.'s valuation has fallen 11.5% to $17.8 trillion. Hence, its multiple has shrunk by the same proportion to 31.7. That still looks pretty expensive, but that number is still artificially low. That's because as we'll see, the denominator––the 100's earnings––are highly inflated, and destined to fall or go flat.
The incredible drop in rates sent PEs rising much faster than profits
Warren Buffett explained it best: Relatively risky stocks compete with safe government bonds, so when bond yields drop, the appeal of fixed income securities falls, and money shifts to equities. Investors can pay a lot more for stocks and still get more dollars in earnings for the dollars they're paying for each share than they'd pocket from the puny yields on Treasuries. What's more, the profits that provide those dividends and capital for expansion keep growing, while bond coupons don't. In this dynamic, a big fall in interest rates usually triggers a sharp rise in price-to-earnings multiples––just what happened from the early 1980s to mid-1990s.
From late 2018 to today, the yield on the 10-year Treasury has dropped from 3.2% to 1.75%. What matters most, though, isn't the slide in "nominal" rates that are posted every day on business TV channels and sites, but that number adjusted for inflation––what's known as the "real yield." It's the shifts in the real yield that sink or boost stock prices. Over that three year period, that crucial benchmark swung from a positive 1.1% to the current negative 0.58%.
How do we arrive at that number? it's the difference between the expected annual inflation of 2.33% over the next decade (based on the rate for Treasury Inflation-adjusted securities) and the 1.7% yield or the long-bond. The historic fall in real yields powered the gigantic increase in the our One Hundred, Inc, by enabling the index's prices to race much faster than its profits.
This math shows what the NASDAQ's really worth and it's a shocker
The market's PE is determined by the "cost-of-capital." It's the return that investors, at this very moment, are demanding to buy stocks. A good approximation of the COC is the current "earnings yield." It's the dollars you "receive" in profits for reach $100 you're paying for a stock or group of stocks like the NASDAQ 100. Divide $100 by the current PE of 31.7, and you get 3.15%. Your share of NASDAQ, Inc.'s profits for each $100 you own in its stock is $3.15. That just-over 3% number is low by historical standards, and it was a lot lower at 2.8% at the end of last year before tech started tanking. The reason that investors are willing to accept relatively paltry earnings for the every $100 or $1000 or $100,000 they're paying for stocks is that bonds are an even worse deal.
But that's going to change. In December, the Fed was already predicting that it would lift the short-term Fed Funds rate from virtually zero today to 1.6% in 2023, 2.1% in 2024, and 2.5% over the longer term. Chairman Powell's announcement in January that the central bank will do whatever it takes to wrestle down rampaging inflation probably means the Fed will raise faster, and higher. Since escalating short-term rates generally send all yields on longer-dated bonds higher, it's probable that "real" yields will soon go positive.
Steep drops ahead
How positive is the question. Let's be conservative. The CBO's projections for economic growth going forward is in the 2% range. Real rates generally track the expansion in GDP. But U.S. real rates could be much lower than 2% if foreign nations continue their strong demand for dollars as a safe haven. We'll estimate that real rates rapidly go from the current minus 0.58%, to 1%, still an extremely low number by historical standards.
So let's do the math. Working backwards, if real rates hit 1%, investors will demand a higher return from our One Hundred, Inc. They'll want not an earnings yield of 3.17%, but one that tacks on the increase in rates, in what they could get from risk-free bonds. And getting to a 1% real rate means a rise in real rates of 1.58%––going from today's yield of minus 0.58% to 1%. When investors predict that will happen, they'll want a return or earnings yield that's 1.58% higher than today's. So add 1.58% to the current earnings yield of 3.17%, and you get 4.75%.
The 100's PE would be the inverse of that 4.75%, or 21. At that multiple, One Hundred Inc, at the current $561 billion in trailing earnings, would fall to 11,840. That's 18% below the 14,438 close on January 21. The total drop from the November record would be 29%.
But hang on.
That the recent earnings season is studded with disappointments––including the big miss at Netflix––is a harbinger of things to come. The One Hundred's earnings are in a bubble. In 2018, a strong year, it achieved a net-income-to-sales margin of 13.8%. Last year, that bulge swelled to 17.0%. That kind of profitability won't last. Economist Robert Shiller's CAPE index that "normalizes" earnings by averaging profits over a decade, suggests that One Hundred, Inc's had an unusually great year in 2021, and that net profits should revert to around $400 billion, way below the $561 billon recorded in 2021. Even if we assume that the stay-at-home economy has given the NASDAQ greats a long-term profit boost to $450 million, the index at a PE of 21 would sell for 9500.
What's the NASDAQ really worth? By this writer's analysis, around that 9500, meaning it's got another 34% or so to fall. We saw this spectacle in the aftermath of the 1998 to 2000 tech bubble. That was all about dot com newcomers with huge valuations and no earnings. This time, it's about a big multiples on top of inflated earnings. Both will decline as rates return to normal levels, and the profit bonanza from the stay-at-home economy that enriched so many tech players wanes. Getting back to normal will be painful indeed.