世界衛(wèi)生組織警告：不要低估奧密克戎毒株的危險性
Jeremy Kahn
2022-01-05
盡管有初步研究表明，奧密克戎變種毒株的重癥率要低于此前的新冠病毒毒株，但世界衛(wèi)生組織（World Health Organization）就此發(fā)出警告，稱全球在該毒株對最易感人群的影響方面依然沒有足夠的數(shù)據(jù)。
以下是世界衛(wèi)生組織發(fā)出警告的原因：
南非：年齡和抗體
世界衛(wèi)生組織的新冠事件負責人阿卜迪·馬哈茂德博士稱，盡管南非有關(guān)奧密克戎感染病癥較輕的數(shù)據(jù)令人十分欣慰，但南非人口的年齡結(jié)構(gòu)更加年輕。馬哈茂德于2021年12月29日在日內(nèi)瓦召開的新聞發(fā)布會上談?wù)搳W密克戎毒株時說：“我們并不清楚它對年長以及易感人群會有什么樣的影響。”
他表示，人們不應(yīng)該“過度”解讀南非的數(shù)據(jù)，并且稱全球依然還需進一步了解奧密克戎毒株對未接種人群以及60歲以上人群的影響，也就是那些患有基礎(chǔ)疾病、免疫系統(tǒng)遭到削弱的人群。
世界衛(wèi)生組織衛(wèi)生突發(fā)事件項目的執(zhí)行主任邁克·瑞安還在同一個新聞發(fā)布會上指出，除了南非人口整體年齡比其他國家更加年輕之外，很大一部分南非人還擁有此前新冠病毒感染所產(chǎn)生的抗體。受此影響，我們可能很難判斷奧密克戎毒株的重癥率是否本來就低于以往新冠疫情的病毒毒株SARS-CoV-2。
歐洲：高接種率
瑞安稱，從歐洲獲得的數(shù)據(jù)在當前階段亦難以得出確切的結(jié)論。很多歐洲國家的接種率很高，因此說到住院病患數(shù)量并未與感染率同步飆升的原因，我們很難確認到底是疫苗接種帶來的重癥防范效果，還是奧密克戎毒株本身重癥率較低。
此外，歐洲的大多數(shù)奧密克戎感染病患到目前為止都是較為年輕的成年人。他說，病毒還未大幅侵襲60歲以上人群，因此，我們很難知道奧密克戎毒株對這個年齡段的人群到底有多危險。
瑞安說：“我們看到，奧密克戎毒株還未完全入侵各個年齡段的人群。在了解疫苗對年長和易感人群的保護效果之前，我不大愿意做出樂觀的預(yù)測。”
瑞安還指出，眾所周知，德爾塔變種毒株比其他早期毒株更容易引發(fā)重癥，而且該毒株依然在歐洲地區(qū)傳播，這一事實讓歐洲的住院數(shù)據(jù)變得更加難以解讀。
美國觀點
有鑒于南非的數(shù)據(jù)，一些國家的衛(wèi)生機構(gòu)更傾向于認為奧密克戎毒株的危險性看起來要低于此前的毒株。在美國，白宮首席醫(yī)療顧問安東尼·福奇在2021年12月29日稱，到目前為止，南非所有跡象表明，奧密克戎毒株的重癥率要小于德爾塔毒株。然而他也明確表示，我們不能因此而盲目樂觀，這一點很重要，因為美國人口結(jié)構(gòu)與南非不同，而且我們并不清楚奧密克戎毒株到底會造成什么樣的影響。（財富中文網(wǎng)）
譯者：馮豐
審校：夏林
盡管有初步研究表明，奧密克戎變種毒株的重癥率要低于此前的新冠病毒毒株，但世界衛(wèi)生組織（World Health Organization）就此發(fā)出警告，稱全球在該毒株對最易感人群的影響方面依然沒有足夠的數(shù)據(jù)。
以下是世界衛(wèi)生組織發(fā)出警告的原因：
南非：年齡和抗體
世界衛(wèi)生組織的新冠事件負責人阿卜迪·馬哈茂德博士稱，盡管南非有關(guān)奧密克戎感染病癥較輕的數(shù)據(jù)令人十分欣慰，但南非人口的年齡結(jié)構(gòu)更加年輕。馬哈茂德于2021年12月29日在日內(nèi)瓦召開的新聞發(fā)布會上談?wù)搳W密克戎毒株時說：“我們并不清楚它對年長以及易感人群會有什么樣的影響。”
他表示，人們不應(yīng)該“過度”解讀南非的數(shù)據(jù)，并且稱全球依然還需進一步了解奧密克戎毒株對未接種人群以及60歲以上人群的影響，也就是那些患有基礎(chǔ)疾病、免疫系統(tǒng)遭到削弱的人群。
世界衛(wèi)生組織衛(wèi)生突發(fā)事件項目的執(zhí)行主任邁克·瑞安還在同一個新聞發(fā)布會上指出，除了南非人口整體年齡比其他國家更加年輕之外，很大一部分南非人還擁有此前新冠病毒感染所產(chǎn)生的抗體。受此影響，我們可能很難判斷奧密克戎毒株的重癥率是否本來就低于以往新冠疫情的病毒毒株SARS-CoV-2。
歐洲：高接種率
瑞安稱，從歐洲獲得的數(shù)據(jù)在當前階段亦難以得出確切的結(jié)論。很多歐洲國家的接種率很高，因此說到住院病患數(shù)量并未與感染率同步飆升的原因，我們很難確認到底是疫苗接種帶來的重癥防范效果，還是奧密克戎毒株本身重癥率較低。
此外，歐洲的大多數(shù)奧密克戎感染病患到目前為止都是較為年輕的成年人。他說，病毒還未大幅侵襲60歲以上人群，因此，我們很難知道奧密克戎毒株對這個年齡段的人群到底有多危險。
瑞安說：“我們看到，奧密克戎毒株還未完全入侵各個年齡段的人群。在了解疫苗對年長和易感人群的保護效果之前，我不大愿意做出樂觀的預(yù)測。”
瑞安還指出，眾所周知，德爾塔變種毒株比其他早期毒株更容易引發(fā)重癥，而且該毒株依然在歐洲地區(qū)傳播，這一事實讓歐洲的住院數(shù)據(jù)變得更加難以解讀。
美國觀點
有鑒于南非的數(shù)據(jù)，一些國家的衛(wèi)生機構(gòu)更傾向于認為奧密克戎毒株的危險性看起來要低于此前的毒株。在美國，白宮首席醫(yī)療顧問安東尼·福奇在2021年12月29日稱，到目前為止，南非所有跡象表明，奧密克戎毒株的重癥率要小于德爾塔毒株。然而他也明確表示，我們不能因此而盲目樂觀，這一點很重要，因為美國人口結(jié)構(gòu)與南非不同，而且我們并不清楚奧密克戎毒株到底會造成什么樣的影響。（財富中文網(wǎng)）
譯者：馮豐
審校：夏林
The World Health Organization has sounded a note of caution over initial research that the Omicron variant is less likely to cause severe disease than previous coronavirus strains, saying that we still don't have enough data on how this version of the virus affects those who are most vulnerable.
Here's why the WHO is urging caution:
South Africa: Age and antibodies
Dr. Abdi Mahamud, the WHO’s incident manager for COVID-19, said that while data from South Africa suggesting Omicron causes milder illness was encouraging, the population in South Africa is mostly younger. "How it behaves in the elderly population, the vulnerable—we don’t know yet,” Mahamud said of Omicron during a press briefing in Geneva on December 29, 2021.
He said people should not "overinterpret" the South African data, saying the world still needed more information on how Omicron affects people over 60 years old, those with underlying medical conditions that weaken their immune response, and the unvaccinated.
Mike Ryan, executive director of the WHO health emergencies program, also said in the same press briefing that not only was the South African population generally younger than in other places, but that a large number of South Africans had also carried antibodies from prior COVID-19 infections. That might confound attempts to determine whether the Omicron strain is innately less likely to cause severe disease than prior variants of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.
Europe: High vaccination
Ryan said the data emerging out of Europe was also difficult to interpret at this stage. Many European countries have very high vaccination rates, which also makes it hard to tease out whether the fact hospitalizations have not soared in step with skyrocketing infection rates is largely due to protection against severe illness conferred by the vaccines or because Omicron is inherently less potent.
What's more, the majority of those infected with Omicron in Europe so far have been younger adults. The virus has yet to make major inroads into the over-60-year-old population, so it remains difficult to know how dangerous Omicron is to those in this age group, he said.
“What we haven’t seen is the Omicron wave fully established in the broader population,” Ryan said. “I’m a little nervous to make positive predictions until we see how well the vaccine protection is going to work in those older and more vulnerable populations.”
Also confounding the hospitalization data from Europe, Ryan said, is the fact that the Delta variant, which is known to be more likely to cause serious illness than some earlier strains of the virus, is still spreading there.
U. S. View
Some national health authorities have been more willing to say Omicron appears less dangerous than previous strains, based on the South African data. In the U.S., Anthony Fauci, the White House chief medical adviser, said on December 29, 2021 that so far all indications from South Africa suggested that Omicron causes less severe disease than the Delta variant. But he did say it was important not to become complacent, saying that U.S. demographics differed from South Africa's and it was unclear exactly what impact Omicron would have.
