肯·格里芬認為美國股市存在“嚴重泡沫”。
11月10日,芝加哥億萬富翁肯·格里芬在《紐約時報》(New York Times)舉辦的DealBook會議上發言時,對持續上漲的美國股市表示擔憂。20個月前,新冠疫情曾經令投資者陷入恐慌,但在那之后,美股一路上漲,并且這波行情似乎沒有終止的跡象。格里芬經營對沖基金巨頭Citadel,并擁有一家全球領先的做市商Citadel Securities。
格里芬說:“我們需要明確的是,自從新冠疫情爆發以來,美股開始了直線上漲的單行道。我們看到市場正在表現出真正泡沫化的跡象,一些相對較小的事件引發了極其劇烈的股價波動?!?/p>
美股從2020年3月走出低谷后開始持續攀升,標準普爾500指數(S&P 500)上漲超過100%。
美聯儲(Federal Reserve)史無前例地將利率維持在接近歷史最低水平,并且最近才開始減少對債券市場的支持,這是股市暴漲的原因之一。美聯儲的措施為企業帶來了接近兩年的低息貸款,并令投資者極其愿意冒險投資,從加密貨幣到網紅股都成為他們的投資對象。格里芬的做市商因為代表Robinhood等知名應用程序執行散戶訂單,成為舉國關注的焦點。對于因為游戲驛站(GameStop)出現的各種陰謀論,格里芬形容這種經歷就像是成了一則“冷笑話”里的主人公。
格里芬認為,股票價格日益偏離基本價值值得關注,因為“任何形式的政策失誤或者一家公司運氣不佳,都將導致股價大幅波動。”
格里芬列舉了特斯拉(Tesla)的例子。
該電動汽車廠商的首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克在推特(Twitter)上就自己是否應該賣掉10%的股份來支付更多稅費發起調查,之后,該公司的股價大跌。因為調查結果是馬斯克應該出售股份。于是投資者做出了回應,導致特斯拉股價下跌,公司市值蒸發了數千億美元。
格里芬稱他與馬斯克相識已久。他表示:“我從未想過股票價格會被推特上的一次民意調查所支配。我們生活在一個截然不同的世界。”
加密貨幣估值
當然,不止股票在大幅上漲。
在今年早些時候,大批散戶蜂擁買入游戲驛站和AMC等網紅股之后,許多散戶進入了加密貨幣市場。近幾年,加密貨幣也引起了華爾街金融業巨頭的關注,包括大型對沖基金和行動迅速的交易公司,兩者都是格里芬的Citadel和Citadel Securities的業務范圍。
但格里芬仍然在努力了解這個領域。
他表示:“我們有各種資產類別,它們的價值認定方式截然不同。如果我們談論一家銀行,我們可能會說,它的市盈率應該是12倍。我們也可以認為它的市盈率應該達到13或14倍。但評估加密貨幣的價值該以什么為依據?歸根結底在于‘我是否認為明天會有人為它向我支付更高的價格?’”
最后,格里芬指出,加密貨幣還需要解決許多問題,才能夠像它的擁躉們所堅信的那樣真正強大起來。例如,如果消費者的加密貨幣錢包被盜該由誰賠償消費者的損失、比特幣如何處理環境足跡問題,以及區塊鏈技術有哪些“可靠的商業使用案例”等?目前,格里芬并沒有看到區塊鏈的任何商業用途。
他說:“人們專注于層出不窮的新想法和新創意。我喜歡美國人的這種風格。但我卻擔心人們對加密貨幣的熱情是錯誤的?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W)
翻譯:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
肯·格里芬認為美國股市存在“嚴重泡沫”。
11月10日,芝加哥億萬富翁肯·格里芬在《紐約時報》(New York Times)舉辦的DealBook會議上發言時,對持續上漲的美國股市表示擔憂。20個月前,新冠疫情曾經令投資者陷入恐慌,但在那之后,美股一路上漲,并且這波行情似乎沒有終止的跡象。格里芬經營對沖基金巨頭Citadel,并擁有一家全球領先的做市商Citadel Securities。
格里芬說:“我們需要明確的是,自從新冠疫情爆發以來,美股開始了直線上漲的單行道。我們看到市場正在表現出真正泡沫化的跡象,一些相對較小的事件引發了極其劇烈的股價波動?!?/p>
美股從2020年3月走出低谷后開始持續攀升,標準普爾500指數(S&P 500)上漲超過100%。
美聯儲(Federal Reserve)史無前例地將利率維持在接近歷史最低水平,并且最近才開始減少對債券市場的支持,這是股市暴漲的原因之一。美聯儲的措施為企業帶來了接近兩年的低息貸款,并令投資者極其愿意冒險投資,從加密貨幣到網紅股都成為他們的投資對象。格里芬的做市商因為代表Robinhood等知名應用程序執行散戶訂單,成為舉國關注的焦點。對于因為游戲驛站(GameStop)出現的各種陰謀論,格里芬形容這種經歷就像是成了一則“冷笑話”里的主人公。
格里芬認為,股票價格日益偏離基本價值值得關注,因為“任何形式的政策失誤或者一家公司運氣不佳,都將導致股價大幅波動?!?/p>
格里芬列舉了特斯拉(Tesla)的例子。
該電動汽車廠商的首席執行官埃隆·馬斯克在推特(Twitter)上就自己是否應該賣掉10%的股份來支付更多稅費發起調查,之后,該公司的股價大跌。因為調查結果是馬斯克應該出售股份。于是投資者做出了回應,導致特斯拉股價下跌,公司市值蒸發了數千億美元。
格里芬稱他與馬斯克相識已久。他表示:“我從未想過股票價格會被推特上的一次民意調查所支配。我們生活在一個截然不同的世界?!?/p>
加密貨幣估值
當然,不止股票在大幅上漲。
在今年早些時候,大批散戶蜂擁買入游戲驛站和AMC等網紅股之后,許多散戶進入了加密貨幣市場。近幾年,加密貨幣也引起了華爾街金融業巨頭的關注,包括大型對沖基金和行動迅速的交易公司,兩者都是格里芬的Citadel和Citadel Securities的業務范圍。
但格里芬仍然在努力了解這個領域。
他表示:“我們有各種資產類別,它們的價值認定方式截然不同。如果我們談論一家銀行,我們可能會說,它的市盈率應該是12倍。我們也可以認為它的市盈率應該達到13或14倍。但評估加密貨幣的價值該以什么為依據?歸根結底在于‘我是否認為明天會有人為它向我支付更高的價格?’”
最后,格里芬指出,加密貨幣還需要解決許多問題,才能夠像它的擁躉們所堅信的那樣真正強大起來。例如,如果消費者的加密貨幣錢包被盜該由誰賠償消費者的損失、比特幣如何處理環境足跡問題,以及區塊鏈技術有哪些“可靠的商業使用案例”等?目前,格里芬并沒有看到區塊鏈的任何商業用途。
他說:“人們專注于層出不窮的新想法和新創意。我喜歡美國人的這種風格。但我卻擔心人們對加密貨幣的熱情是錯誤的?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W)
翻譯:劉進龍
審校:汪皓
Ken Griffin thinks U.S. stocks are "real frothy."
The Chicago billionaire, who runs hedge fund behemoth Citadel and owns market-making giant Citadel Securities, expressed concern on Wednesday while speaking at The New York Times DealBook conference about the seemingly never-ending ride upward in equity markets that has taken place since the COVID-19 pandemic invoked a sense of terror in investors 20 months ago.
"Let's be clear, it has been a one way street since the start of the pandemic straight up," Griffin said. "We're seeing a market that is showing signs of real frothiness, where you've had some pretty significant stock price moves on relatively small events."
Stocks have indeed been on a tear since bottoming out in March 2020, with the S&P 500 climbing more than 100% in that time.
Driving the surge has been an unprecedentedly helpful Federal Reserve that has kept interest rates near rock-bottom levels and has only recently begun drawing back its support from the bond markets. The measures created a nearly two-year-long period of easy money for companies and extreme risk taking by investors in everything from cryptocurrencies to the very same meme stocks that put Griffin's market maker into the national spotlight for its role in executing individual investors' orders on behalf of popular trading apps like Robinhood. On the conspiracy theories that bubbled out of the GameStop saga, Griffin described it like being at the center of a "bad comedy joke."
For Griffin, the growing divide between share prices and fundamental values is a point of rising concern, though, as "any form of either policy error or a company having a bad spell is going to result in a pretty dramatic repricing of equities," he said.
Just take Tesla as an example, Griffin said.
The electric car maker's stock had been battered by investors following CEO Elon Musk's Twitter poll on whether he should sell 10% of his stake to pay more taxes. The survey results said Musk should sell. So, investors responded accordingly, driving Tesla shares downward and evaporating hundreds of billions of dollars worth of market value from the stock in the process.
"I never thought we'd let our stakes be dictated by a poll on Twitter," said Griffin, who added he has known Musk for a long time. "We live in a whole different world."
Crypto valuations
Equities are not alone in their precipitous climb, of course.
After a band of individual investors piled into meme stocks like GameStop and AMC earlier this year, many found their way to the cryptocurrency markets. Crypto has also become a hotbed of interest for Wall Street financial giants in recent years, including both hedge funds and speedy trading shops—both of which fall under Griffin's umbrella with Citadel and Citadel Securities.
But Griffin is still trying to make sense of the space.
"We have a variety of asset classes where the ascertaining of values [is] very difficult," Griffin said. "If you and I think about a bank, we might say, it should trade at 12-times earnings. We could debate it should be 13 or 14. But when you have to value cryptocurrencies, what it the basis that you use for valuation? And it really comes down to, 'Do I think somebody will pay me more for it tomorrow?'"
Ultimately, Griffin says there are a number of questions that crypto still has to address for it to become truly formidable like its fans believe it can be. Among them are who makes a consumer whole when their crypto wallet is stolen, how will Bitcoin reckon with its environmental footprint, and what are the "solid commercial use cases" for blockchain technology, Griffin said. Today, the Citadel CEO does not yet see any.
"People are very focused in a world of new ideas and new creations. I love that part of America," Griffin said. "I worry that some of this passion has been misplaced when it comes to cryptocurrencies."