下單后遲遲不到貨，美國快遞為什么這么慢？
ROB WALKER
2021-10-27
本·德瑞福斯想通過購物來犒勞自己。這位最近搬到愛達荷州太陽谷的演員兼作家（也是奧斯卡得主理查德的兒子）希望以不錯的價格買到自己心儀的物品，而且按照人們在購物時習以為常的收貨時間表：馬上。
他失敗了。在這篇Twitter上的長帖中，他憤怒地指出，自己無法在當地買到價格合適的物品，而線上物品的送貨速度不夠快。他埋怨說：“想在亞馬遜購物嗎？恭喜，到手得一周的時間。”德瑞福斯稱，他唯一的選擇就是往返240多公里的路程，前往距離最近的Bed Bath & Beyond。之所以出現這種“社會性故障”，其原因在于供應鏈的吃緊以及15年以來因電子商務而日漸式微的本土商業。
德瑞福斯很快便成為了人們的抨擊對象，即便他將其牛肉描述為“愛達荷小鎮”的一種生活方式，也是于事無補。太陽谷的豪華滑雪度假村并不能完全被看作典型的美國中部農村地區。然而人們不得不面對的事實在于：很多人在最近幾周可能都遭受了類似的挫折。供應鏈的確十分吃緊，正因為如此，消費者才不得已接受了等待這種方式，但這一點卻與大型企業和科技公司堅定不移、絞盡腦汁數耗費數十年才想出的解決辦法背道而馳。有鑒于這個形勢，我們不得不等待。一臺冰箱要等6個月的時間，沙發要等9個月，一些游戲玩家依然無法買到一臺哪怕是一年前便已經面世的PS5。
供應鏈之殤并非是唯一的罪魁禍首，但這些禍首讓人們開始聚焦當代商業所依賴的復雜的制造和運輸網絡。庫存水平處于低位，亞洲工廠因新冠疫情而放緩或暫停了生產；從長灘到薩凡納，各大港口均出現了貨船滯留現象。像沃爾瑪、好市多（Costco）和家得寶（Home Depot）這樣的大型零售商則通過自行租賃船只來確保店面供貨。人們得提前一天采購節日貨物：專家預計所有物品的交貨期都會延長，從玩具和小物件（尤其是涉及半導體芯片的物品，因為芯片缺貨非常嚴重）一直到家用新冠病毒測試包。在洛杉磯港最近轉為24小時作業之后，拜登總統稱這一現象表明，消費者遭遇的種種不便事實上已成為一個政治問題。
等待商品不單只會讓人們感到沮喪。客戶一直在宣泄不滿，抱怨餐廳的等待時間長，飛機晚點。這也導致大量的服務員工辭去工作，助長了創紀錄離職所帶來的“辭職潮”勞動力緊縮，這一現象最終又會導致員工的進一步減少，加劇等待時長。這里有一個基準：彭博專欄作家塔拉·拉查佩勒最近引用了來自于Stephens Inc.一則研究紀要，該紀要稱Domino披薩的送貨時間在今夏“突然、令人驚訝地延長了30%”，而且一直沒有恢復如初，可能是受司機短缺的影響。即便是郵政局也延長了送貨時間，并稱此舉是成本削減計劃的一部分。
你可以將這種等待延長看作是“影子通脹”。在影子通脹時期，各大公司不會提升價格，但花同樣的錢，你得到的量變少了。這可能意味著糖塊的尺寸略微縮小，亦或意味著等待時間的變長。例如一些汽車銷售商正在提醒潛在的買家要多準備幾個選項，因為要購買其心儀的顏色和配置將需要等待一段時間：新車短缺的情況可能會延續至明年。
盡管如此，在等待回歸之際，可能最容易忽視的一個因素在于：供應方的混亂恰好碰上了需求方的暴漲，而消費者則繼續通過花錢來滿足其被抑制的、對各類事物的渴望，從電器和耐用品一直到體驗和服務。盡管遭遇漲價、短缺以及新冠病毒變種德爾塔，但我們對物品的需求明顯沒有任何減弱的跡象。與人們的預期相反的是，零售額（包括餐廳和酒吧以及服裝和家居產品店等）在9月份再次增長。S&P Global 的一位經濟學家對《紐約時報》（New York Times）說：“人們有花錢的意愿；問題在于他們是否能找到這些物品。”
正因為如此，當前這個時期展示了“不等待”對于消費者的重要性。我們已經習慣于立即獲得自己想要的東西，因為這是長期以來公司給消費者灌輸的理念。在過去一個世紀中，銷售的一個決定性特征便是通過改善科技和物流，來縮短愿望與滿足感交付之間的時間。亞馬遜的發展軌跡便凸顯了這個更廣泛的現象：其“包羅萬象的店面”擁有無限的品類，它熱忱滿滿地致力于滿足人們及時行樂的沖動。這也是為什么亞馬遜Prime車隊的車輛搖身一變，紛紛向聯邦快遞或聯合包裹卡車看齊。這也是為什么當消費者發現要等待一周的時間才能拿到自己心儀的物品時，難免會勃然大怒，哪怕就在不久前，家用產品的極速送貨服務還是一個非常博眼球的創新，而并非是與人權掛鉤的服務。
疫情進一步加速了這一趨勢的進程。由于娛樂或發行活動受到了限制，用于補救的零售業務便移到了線上。很多人更加習慣于這種“無摩擦”經濟：需要什么物品只需在手機上點擊，然后貨物就會送到家門口。電商和送貨企業則通過加班加點，來滿足甚至超越客戶對送貨極限速度的需求，從奶酪漢堡、打印機一直到木材。正因為因此，為心儀的物品等待一周的時間似乎是一件難以想象的事情，至少對消費者來說是這樣。咨詢公司Mercer的梅麗莎·斯威夫特最近對Axios說：“科技已經讓上層社會擺脫了實現其生活方式所需的體力勞動。”
盡管無等待文化對環境、勞動力帶來了負面影響，可能連我們的精神都未能幸免于難，但要逆轉這一現象著實不易。有證據表明，供應鏈壓力已經見頂，即便如此，要回歸正常狀態仍需要數月的時間。與此同時，勞動力緊縮可能會持續數年的時間。如今，我們不得不學會再次等待。然而在消費者預期發生改變之前，我們很難打破這個循環。如果人們不能總是立即得到自己想要的東西，我們真的能學會接受嗎？這一點還有待觀察。（財富中文網）
譯者：馮豐
審校：夏林
本·德瑞福斯想通過購物來犒勞自己。這位最近搬到愛達荷州太陽谷的演員兼作家（也是奧斯卡得主理查德的兒子）希望以不錯的價格買到自己心儀的物品，而且按照人們在購物時習以為常的收貨時間表：馬上。
他失敗了。在這篇Twitter上的長帖中，他憤怒地指出，自己無法在當地買到價格合適的物品，而線上物品的送貨速度不夠快。他埋怨說：“想在亞馬遜購物嗎？恭喜，到手得一周的時間。”德瑞福斯稱，他唯一的選擇就是往返240多公里的路程，前往距離最近的Bed Bath & Beyond。之所以出現這種“社會性故障”，其原因在于供應鏈的吃緊以及15年以來因電子商務而日漸式微的本土商業。
德瑞福斯很快便成為了人們的抨擊對象，即便他將其牛肉描述為“愛達荷小鎮”的一種生活方式，也是于事無補。太陽谷的豪華滑雪度假村并不能完全被看作典型的美國中部農村地區。然而人們不得不面對的事實在于：很多人在最近幾周可能都遭受了類似的挫折。供應鏈的確十分吃緊，正因為如此，消費者才不得已接受了等待這種方式，但這一點卻與大型企業和科技公司堅定不移、絞盡腦汁數耗費數十年才想出的解決辦法背道而馳。有鑒于這個形勢，我們不得不等待。一臺冰箱要等6個月的時間，沙發要等9個月，一些游戲玩家依然無法買到一臺哪怕是一年前便已經面世的PS5。
供應鏈之殤并非是唯一的罪魁禍首，但這些禍首讓人們開始聚焦當代商業所依賴的復雜的制造和運輸網絡。庫存水平處于低位，亞洲工廠因新冠疫情而放緩或暫停了生產；從長灘到薩凡納，各大港口均出現了貨船滯留現象。像沃爾瑪、好市多（Costco）和家得寶（Home Depot）這樣的大型零售商則通過自行租賃船只來確保店面供貨。人們得提前一天采購節日貨物：專家預計所有物品的交貨期都會延長，從玩具和小物件（尤其是涉及半導體芯片的物品，因為芯片缺貨非常嚴重）一直到家用新冠病毒測試包。在洛杉磯港最近轉為24小時作業之后，拜登總統稱這一現象表明，消費者遭遇的種種不便事實上已成為一個政治問題。
等待商品不單只會讓人們感到沮喪。客戶一直在宣泄不滿，抱怨餐廳的等待時間長，飛機晚點。這也導致大量的服務員工辭去工作，助長了創紀錄離職所帶來的“辭職潮”勞動力緊縮，這一現象最終又會導致員工的進一步減少，加劇等待時長。這里有一個基準：彭博專欄作家塔拉·拉查佩勒最近引用了來自于Stephens Inc.一則研究紀要，該紀要稱Domino披薩的送貨時間在今夏“突然、令人驚訝地延長了30%”，而且一直沒有恢復如初，可能是受司機短缺的影響。即便是郵政局也延長了送貨時間，并稱此舉是成本削減計劃的一部分。
你可以將這種等待延長看作是“影子通脹”。在影子通脹時期，各大公司不會提升價格，但花同樣的錢，你得到的量變少了。這可能意味著糖塊的尺寸略微縮小，亦或意味著等待時間的變長。例如一些汽車銷售商正在提醒潛在的買家要多準備幾個選項，因為要購買其心儀的顏色和配置將需要等待一段時間：新車短缺的情況可能會延續至明年。
盡管如此，在等待回歸之際，可能最容易忽視的一個因素在于：供應方的混亂恰好碰上了需求方的暴漲，而消費者則繼續通過花錢來滿足其被抑制的、對各類事物的渴望，從電器和耐用品一直到體驗和服務。盡管遭遇漲價、短缺以及新冠病毒變種德爾塔，但我們對物品的需求明顯沒有任何減弱的跡象。與人們的預期相反的是，零售額（包括餐廳和酒吧以及服裝和家居產品店等）在9月份再次增長。S&P Global 的一位經濟學家對《紐約時報》（New York Times）說：“人們有花錢的意愿；問題在于他們是否能找到這些物品。”
正因為如此，當前這個時期展示了“不等待”對于消費者的重要性。我們已經習慣于立即獲得自己想要的東西，因為這是長期以來公司給消費者灌輸的理念。在過去一個世紀中，銷售的一個決定性特征便是通過改善科技和物流，來縮短愿望與滿足感交付之間的時間。亞馬遜的發展軌跡便凸顯了這個更廣泛的現象：其“包羅萬象的店面”擁有無限的品類，它熱忱滿滿地致力于滿足人們及時行樂的沖動。這也是為什么亞馬遜Prime車隊的車輛搖身一變，紛紛向聯邦快遞或聯合包裹卡車看齊。這也是為什么當消費者發現要等待一周的時間才能拿到自己心儀的物品時，難免會勃然大怒，哪怕就在不久前，家用產品的極速送貨服務還是一個非常博眼球的創新，而并非是與人權掛鉤的服務。
疫情進一步加速了這一趨勢的進程。由于娛樂或發行活動受到了限制，用于補救的零售業務便移到了線上。很多人更加習慣于這種“無摩擦”經濟：需要什么物品只需在手機上點擊，然后貨物就會送到家門口。電商和送貨企業則通過加班加點，來滿足甚至超越客戶對送貨極限速度的需求，從奶酪漢堡、打印機一直到木材。正因為因此，為心儀的物品等待一周的時間似乎是一件難以想象的事情，至少對消費者來說是這樣。咨詢公司Mercer的梅麗莎·斯威夫特最近對Axios說：“科技已經讓上層社會擺脫了實現其生活方式所需的體力勞動。”
盡管無等待文化對環境、勞動力帶來了負面影響，可能連我們的精神都未能幸免于難，但要逆轉這一現象著實不易。有證據表明，供應鏈壓力已經見頂，即便如此，要回歸正常狀態仍需要數月的時間。與此同時，勞動力緊縮可能會持續數年的時間。如今，我們不得不學會再次等待。然而在消費者預期發生改變之前，我們很難打破這個循環。如果人們不能總是立即得到自己想要的東西，我們真的能學會接受嗎？這一點還有待觀察。（財富中文網）
譯者：馮豐
審校：夏林
Ben Dreyfuss needed a comforter. And the actor and writer (and son of Oscar-winner Richard), who had recently moved to Sun Valley, Idaho, expected to get a satisfactory one at a good price on the same timetable that we’ve all become used to receiving consumer goods: right away.
It didn’t work out. In what became a lengthy Twitter thread, he raged that he couldn’t find an affordable comforter locally, and no online options could deliver quickly enough. “You want something on Amazon?” he groused. “Congrats, it will be here in a week.” His only option, Dreyfuss claimed, was to make a 150-mile roundtrip to the nearest Bed Bath & Beyond—“a societal failure” sparked by a stressed supply chain and 15 years of e-commerce wiping out local business.
Dreyfuss was promptly roasted—it didn’t help that he also framed his beef as a function of “small town Idaho” life; Sun Valley’s posh ski resorts don’t exactly typify rural Middle America. But let’s face it: Many of us have likely felt a similar frustration in recent weeks. The supply chain really is stressed, and that is part of what is causing consumers to do something that reverses decades of determined and sophisticated efforts by big business and technology. It is forcing us to wait. Six months for a refrigerator, nine months for a couch; some gamers are still having trouble getting hold of a PS5, which came out nearly a year ago.
Supply-chain woes aren’t the only culprit, but they’ve directed unprecedented attention toward the elaborate manufacturing and transportation networks that enable modern commerce. Inventories are thin; factories across Asia have been slowed or paused by COVID-19 issues; cargo ships are logjammed at ports from Long Beach to Savannah. Big retailers like Walmart, Costco, and Home Depot have chartered their own ships to keep shelves stocked. You need to finish your holiday shopping by, well, yesterday: Experts expect slowed delivery of everything from toys and gizmos (particularly anything that involves a semiconductor chip, notoriously in short supply) to home COVID test kits. When the Port of Los Angeles recently moved to 24-hour operations, it was announced by President Biden, an indicator that consumer inconvenience has become a de facto political issue.
People aren’t just upset about waiting for goods. Customers have been acting out, venting about long waits at restaurants or flight delays. This is contributing to an epic number of service workers leaving their jobs, fueling the record quitting of the so-called Great Resignation labor squeeze—which of course ultimately leads to thin staffing that results in more waiting. One benchmark: Bloomberg columnist Tara Lachapelle recently cited a research note from Stephens Inc. claiming that this summer Domino’s delivery times “abruptly and surprisingly spiked 30%,” and have not recovered, likely due to a driver shortage. Even the post office is slowing some deliveries as part of a cost-cutting scheme.
You can think of this waiting boom as a form of “shadow inflation.” That’s when instead of raising prices, companies give you less for the amount you’re used to paying. Maybe that means a subtly smaller candy bar. Or maybe it means increased wait times. Some car sellers, for instance, are warning potential buyers to be flexible, because getting the exact color and make they want is going to take a while: Vehicle shortages are expected to stretch into next year.
That said, maybe the most underrated factor in the return of waiting is that the supply-side snarls are coinciding with a demand-side explosion, as consumers continue to spend on their pent-up desire for everything from appliances and durable goods to experiences and services. Our demand for stuff evidently continues unabated, despite higher prices, shortages, and the Delta variant. Retail sales (including restaurants and bars along with clothing and home-goods stores and the like) rose again in September, contrary to expectations. “People are willing to spend; it’s just a question if they can find the items,” an economist at S&P Global told the New York Times.
That’s why this moment is shining a spotlight on how important not waiting has become to consumers. We have come to expect to get what we want ASAP because that’s what companies have trained us to expect. A defining characteristic of the past century of selling has been the honing of technology and logistics to shorten the time between the spark of your desire and the delivery of its satisfaction. Amazon’s trajectory is an obvious stand-in for the broader phenomenon: Its “everything store,” with its proposition of infinite variety, has fully merged with a zeal to satisfy instant-gratification urges. Thus the fleets of Amazon Prime vans that have swiftly become as familiar as Fedex or UPS trucks. And thus the outrage when a shopper discovers he might have to wait a week for a comforter, even though it wasn’t so long ago that the speedy delivery of home goods was a dazzling innovation—not something akin to a human right.
The pandemic accelerated the trend even more. With options for entertainment or release curtailed, retail therapy went online. Many got even more used to a “frictionless” economy: You want something, you tap your phone a few times, and it’s on its way to your door. Both e-commerce and delivery businesses ramped up to meet and exceed demand for maximum speed in bringing customers everything from cheeseburgers to printers to lumber. Ultimately, it really did seem like waiting a week for a comforter was somehow unthinkable, for consumers, at least. “Technology has insulated the upper classes from the physical labor that enables their lifestyle," Melissa Swift of the consulting firm Mercer told Axios recently.
While no-wait culture has had negative consequences on the environment, on labor, and perhaps on our psyches, it won’t be easy to reverse. There is some evidence that supply-chain stress has peaked, but even if that’s the case, it will take months to wind things back to normal-ish. The labor squeeze, meanwhile, is expected to last for years. For now, we are being forced to learn to wait again. But the cycle won’t really break without a change in consumer expectations. Can we really learn to accept that you can’t always get what you want immediately? We’ll have to wait and see.
