比特幣(Bitcoin)的價(jià)格正在從6月下旬不足3萬美元的低點(diǎn)反彈,而它的擁護(hù)者們甚至對(duì)其價(jià)格走勢(shì)做出了更加令人瞠舌的預(yù)測(cè)——也或者是在重述以前的驚人預(yù)測(cè)。
Fundstrat Global Advisors的湯姆·李預(yù)計(jì),到今年年底,比特幣的價(jià)格將飆升至10萬美元。這個(gè)數(shù)字是8月13日下午3點(diǎn)左右4.6萬美元價(jià)格的兩倍多。特斯拉(Tesla)、推特(Twitter)和Skype的早期投資者、億萬富翁蒂姆·德雷珀說,2022年年底前能夠沖上25萬美元。ARK Invest的凱西·伍德和ARK的加密貨幣分析師亞辛·埃爾曼德拉預(yù)計(jì),比特幣的價(jià)格將達(dá)到50萬美元,不過他們沒有給出具體的時(shí)間范圍。
MicroStrategy的首席執(zhí)行官邁克爾·塞勒可能是最大的比特幣多頭,他一直在往公司金庫里囤比特幣。塞勒認(rèn)為,比特幣的市值注定會(huì)從今天的8700億美元激增至11萬億美元,不過他沒有說什么時(shí)候可以漲到這個(gè)數(shù)。如果漲到了,每枚比特幣就能夠賣1400萬美元。
然而,這些忠實(shí)的比特幣粉絲并沒有意識(shí)到,有一片烏云籠罩著比特幣的未來。如果比特幣的價(jià)格如預(yù)期一般一飛沖天,該行業(yè)臭名遠(yuǎn)揚(yáng)的碳排放也將同步擴(kuò)大。這個(gè)行業(yè)目前與希臘的碳排放量相當(dāng),但未來的碳排放將成倍增長(zhǎng),可以趕上規(guī)模大得多的工業(yè)國(guó)家的排放量。簡(jiǎn)而言之,除非比特幣在最大程度上實(shí)現(xiàn)環(huán)保,否則其內(nèi)在的經(jīng)濟(jì)機(jī)制決定了,隨著價(jià)格飆升,比特幣噴出的二氧化碳噸位也將飆升。目前,比特幣狂熱者的財(cái)富只能和比特幣的碳污染同步增長(zhǎng)。
比特幣的碳足跡隨價(jià)格漲落
以8月13日約4.6萬美元的價(jià)格計(jì)算,比特幣采礦行業(yè)的年收入約為160億美元,其中包括支付給礦工的交易費(fèi)用。目前,由于兩大因素共同作用,礦商賺得盆滿缽滿:一是比特幣的價(jià)格一年里漲了五倍;二是中國(guó)對(duì)比特幣挖礦的打擊導(dǎo)致全球產(chǎn)量減半,極大地提高了其他地區(qū)礦商的利潤(rùn)。
但讓我們?cè)偻罂磶啄辍1忍貛潘惴ㄒ?guī)定,到2024年3月下旬,每10分鐘發(fā)行的新比特幣數(shù)量將減半,從6.25個(gè)減少到3.125個(gè)。如果比特幣的價(jià)格不變,這一行的利潤(rùn)將大大減少。但比特幣擁護(hù)者的預(yù)測(cè)正好相反:比特幣價(jià)格的上漲將遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)彌補(bǔ)礦商因?yàn)楸忍貛艛?shù)量減少而損失的利潤(rùn)。(順便說一句,這種情形已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)過三次了。)
未來幾年,比特幣挖礦行業(yè)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)將加劇,其盈利能力最終將遵循所有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)性行業(yè)的經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)律:如果行業(yè)利潤(rùn)巨大,就會(huì)有新的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手加入,最終將利潤(rùn)推回自由市場(chǎng)的水平。荷蘭經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家亞歷克斯·德·弗里斯(他的網(wǎng)站Digiconomist在持續(xù)跟蹤比特幣的碳排放)表示:“‘制造’一枚比特幣的成本最終將上升至與比特幣價(jià)格持平。”當(dāng)然,這一“成本”包括了挖礦公司獲得的足夠體面的資本回報(bào),這樣他們才可以繼續(xù)留在場(chǎng)上。假設(shè)到2024年圣誕節(jié),也就是“減半那年”,比特幣的價(jià)格漲到10萬美元。這個(gè)價(jià)格是今天價(jià)格的兩倍,而年發(fā)行數(shù)量減少了50%,差不多抵銷。屆時(shí),該行業(yè)的總規(guī)模將擴(kuò)大8%左右。因此,采礦者排放的二氧化碳將比現(xiàn)在多大約8%。即使發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家正著急實(shí)現(xiàn)零凈排放的目標(biāo),比特幣行業(yè)的排放量卻將小幅惡化。
當(dāng)然,比特幣目前的環(huán)境狀況已經(jīng)讓埃隆·馬斯克等支持者感到驚慌。但如果幣值達(dá)到伍德預(yù)測(cè)的50萬美元,馬斯克、塞勒和其他幣圈棋手就應(yīng)該好好考慮一下影響。假設(shè)在2024年年底漲到這個(gè)數(shù),甚至再晚幾年才達(dá)到,該行業(yè)的規(guī)模將從今天的160億美元激增至860億美元。從經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的角度說,世界上的礦商需要“花費(fèi)”860億美元(其中包括維持運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)所需的適度利潤(rùn)),才能夠得到這些價(jià)值數(shù)百億美元的比特幣(同樣,已經(jīng)按照2024年減半進(jìn)行了調(diào)整)。
德·弗里斯估計(jì),礦商成本的60%長(zhǎng)期用于支付電費(fèi),其余用于資本支出、維護(hù)、管理費(fèi)用和其他支出。因此,在三年或更長(zhǎng)時(shí)間內(nèi),他們的總電費(fèi)將達(dá)到520億美元(860億美元總成本的60%)。根據(jù)德·弗里斯的估算,整個(gè)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的平均電力成本是每兆瓦時(shí)40美元。鑒于此,該行業(yè)每年將用掉13億兆瓦時(shí)的電力(每兆瓦時(shí)電費(fèi)是40美元,總計(jì)520億美元)。這大約是中國(guó)退出前1.4億兆瓦時(shí)峰值用電量的9倍。德·弗里斯估計(jì),比特幣網(wǎng)絡(luò)現(xiàn)在每消耗一兆瓦電力就會(huì)排放475克二氧化碳。如果這個(gè)公式成立,比特幣如果漲到50萬美元,該行業(yè)每年就將排放6.17億噸碳。
這個(gè)數(shù)量比澳大利亞的碳排放量多56%,比巴西多40%,比南非多40%,比墨西哥多33%。比特幣開采每年的排放量將比英國(guó)的3.52億噸多70%。它的污染水平將接近德國(guó)的6.96億噸。美國(guó)現(xiàn)在每年排放49.21億噸。以50萬美元的比特幣價(jià)格計(jì)算,全球比特幣行業(yè)的二氧化碳排放量將相當(dāng)于美國(guó)的12%,令人難以置信,后者可是驅(qū)動(dòng)著美國(guó)偉大的工業(yè)引擎,為我們1.4億戶家庭供暖降溫。
當(dāng)然,有很多因素可以改善這種可怕的局面。礦場(chǎng)可能會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)用風(fēng)能、太陽能和水力發(fā)電。又或者,因?yàn)閷?duì)電力的需求過大,礦場(chǎng)屆時(shí)可能根本無法找到額外的產(chǎn)能,供它們從比特幣大漲中分一杯羹。另一方面,隨著美國(guó)和其他國(guó)家轉(zhuǎn)用可再生能源,越來越多的化石燃料工廠需要尋找新客戶。如今,比特幣挖礦產(chǎn)業(yè)已經(jīng)讓關(guān)閉的天然氣工廠復(fù)工復(fù)產(chǎn),無論是在紐約、肯塔基還是得克薩斯。在賓夕法尼亞州,衰落的廢煤生意甚至出現(xiàn)了復(fù)蘇。比特幣的綠色未來并非一定會(huì)到來。
對(duì)比特幣的粉絲來說,比特幣價(jià)格的飆升是它與生俱來的權(quán)利,因?yàn)檫@是一種不腐敗的貨幣,是一種安全的價(jià)值儲(chǔ)存手段,或者是企業(yè)存放多余現(xiàn)金的高收益渠道。他們不會(huì)談?wù)摥h(huán)境的惡化,而這注定是未來的重要組成部分。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:Agatha
比特幣(Bitcoin)的價(jià)格正在從6月下旬不足3萬美元的低點(diǎn)反彈,而它的擁護(hù)者們甚至對(duì)其價(jià)格走勢(shì)做出了更加令人瞠舌的預(yù)測(cè)——也或者是在重述以前的驚人預(yù)測(cè)。
Fundstrat Global Advisors的湯姆·李預(yù)計(jì),到今年年底,比特幣的價(jià)格將飆升至10萬美元。這個(gè)數(shù)字是8月13日下午3點(diǎn)左右4.6萬美元價(jià)格的兩倍多。特斯拉(Tesla)、推特(Twitter)和Skype的早期投資者、億萬富翁蒂姆·德雷珀說,2022年年底前能夠沖上25萬美元。ARK Invest的凱西·伍德和ARK的加密貨幣分析師亞辛·埃爾曼德拉預(yù)計(jì),比特幣的價(jià)格將達(dá)到50萬美元,不過他們沒有給出具體的時(shí)間范圍。
MicroStrategy的首席執(zhí)行官邁克爾·塞勒可能是最大的比特幣多頭,他一直在往公司金庫里囤比特幣。塞勒認(rèn)為,比特幣的市值注定會(huì)從今天的8700億美元激增至11萬億美元,不過他沒有說什么時(shí)候可以漲到這個(gè)數(shù)。如果漲到了,每枚比特幣就能夠賣1400萬美元。
然而,這些忠實(shí)的比特幣粉絲并沒有意識(shí)到,有一片烏云籠罩著比特幣的未來。如果比特幣的價(jià)格如預(yù)期一般一飛沖天,該行業(yè)臭名遠(yuǎn)揚(yáng)的碳排放也將同步擴(kuò)大。這個(gè)行業(yè)目前與希臘的碳排放量相當(dāng),但未來的碳排放將成倍增長(zhǎng),可以趕上規(guī)模大得多的工業(yè)國(guó)家的排放量。簡(jiǎn)而言之,除非比特幣在最大程度上實(shí)現(xiàn)環(huán)保,否則其內(nèi)在的經(jīng)濟(jì)機(jī)制決定了,隨著價(jià)格飆升,比特幣噴出的二氧化碳噸位也將飆升。目前,比特幣狂熱者的財(cái)富只能和比特幣的碳污染同步增長(zhǎng)。
比特幣的碳足跡隨價(jià)格漲落
以8月13日約4.6萬美元的價(jià)格計(jì)算,比特幣采礦行業(yè)的年收入約為160億美元,其中包括支付給礦工的交易費(fèi)用。目前,由于兩大因素共同作用,礦商賺得盆滿缽滿:一是比特幣的價(jià)格一年里漲了五倍;二是中國(guó)對(duì)比特幣挖礦的打擊導(dǎo)致全球產(chǎn)量減半,極大地提高了其他地區(qū)礦商的利潤(rùn)。
但讓我們?cè)偻罂磶啄辍1忍貛潘惴ㄒ?guī)定,到2024年3月下旬,每10分鐘發(fā)行的新比特幣數(shù)量將減半,從6.25個(gè)減少到3.125個(gè)。如果比特幣的價(jià)格不變,這一行的利潤(rùn)將大大減少。但比特幣擁護(hù)者的預(yù)測(cè)正好相反:比特幣價(jià)格的上漲將遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)彌補(bǔ)礦商因?yàn)楸忍貛艛?shù)量減少而損失的利潤(rùn)。(順便說一句,這種情形已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)過三次了。)
未來幾年,比特幣挖礦行業(yè)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)將加劇,其盈利能力最終將遵循所有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)性行業(yè)的經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)律:如果行業(yè)利潤(rùn)巨大,就會(huì)有新的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手加入,最終將利潤(rùn)推回自由市場(chǎng)的水平。荷蘭經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家亞歷克斯·德·弗里斯(他的網(wǎng)站Digiconomist在持續(xù)跟蹤比特幣的碳排放)表示:“‘制造’一枚比特幣的成本最終將上升至與比特幣價(jià)格持平。”當(dāng)然,這一“成本”包括了挖礦公司獲得的足夠體面的資本回報(bào),這樣他們才可以繼續(xù)留在場(chǎng)上。假設(shè)到2024年圣誕節(jié),也就是“減半那年”,比特幣的價(jià)格漲到10萬美元。這個(gè)價(jià)格是今天價(jià)格的兩倍,而年發(fā)行數(shù)量減少了50%,差不多抵銷。屆時(shí),該行業(yè)的總規(guī)模將擴(kuò)大8%左右。因此,采礦者排放的二氧化碳將比現(xiàn)在多大約8%。即使發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家正著急實(shí)現(xiàn)零凈排放的目標(biāo),比特幣行業(yè)的排放量卻將小幅惡化。
當(dāng)然,比特幣目前的環(huán)境狀況已經(jīng)讓埃隆·馬斯克等支持者感到驚慌。但如果幣值達(dá)到伍德預(yù)測(cè)的50萬美元,馬斯克、塞勒和其他幣圈棋手就應(yīng)該好好考慮一下影響。假設(shè)在2024年年底漲到這個(gè)數(shù),甚至再晚幾年才達(dá)到,該行業(yè)的規(guī)模將從今天的160億美元激增至860億美元。從經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的角度說,世界上的礦商需要“花費(fèi)”860億美元(其中包括維持運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)所需的適度利潤(rùn)),才能夠得到這些價(jià)值數(shù)百億美元的比特幣(同樣,已經(jīng)按照2024年減半進(jìn)行了調(diào)整)。
德·弗里斯估計(jì),礦商成本的60%長(zhǎng)期用于支付電費(fèi),其余用于資本支出、維護(hù)、管理費(fèi)用和其他支出。因此,在三年或更長(zhǎng)時(shí)間內(nèi),他們的總電費(fèi)將達(dá)到520億美元(860億美元總成本的60%)。根據(jù)德·弗里斯的估算,整個(gè)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的平均電力成本是每兆瓦時(shí)40美元。鑒于此,該行業(yè)每年將用掉13億兆瓦時(shí)的電力(每兆瓦時(shí)電費(fèi)是40美元,總計(jì)520億美元)。這大約是中國(guó)退出前1.4億兆瓦時(shí)峰值用電量的9倍。德·弗里斯估計(jì),比特幣網(wǎng)絡(luò)現(xiàn)在每消耗一兆瓦電力就會(huì)排放475克二氧化碳。如果這個(gè)公式成立,比特幣如果漲到50萬美元,該行業(yè)每年就將排放6.17億噸碳。
這個(gè)數(shù)量比澳大利亞的碳排放量多56%,比巴西多40%,比南非多40%,比墨西哥多33%。比特幣開采每年的排放量將比英國(guó)的3.52億噸多70%。它的污染水平將接近德國(guó)的6.96億噸。美國(guó)現(xiàn)在每年排放49.21億噸。以50萬美元的比特幣價(jià)格計(jì)算,全球比特幣行業(yè)的二氧化碳排放量將相當(dāng)于美國(guó)的12%,令人難以置信,后者可是驅(qū)動(dòng)著美國(guó)偉大的工業(yè)引擎,為我們1.4億戶家庭供暖降溫。
當(dāng)然,有很多因素可以改善這種可怕的局面。礦場(chǎng)可能會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)用風(fēng)能、太陽能和水力發(fā)電。又或者,因?yàn)閷?duì)電力的需求過大,礦場(chǎng)屆時(shí)可能根本無法找到額外的產(chǎn)能,供它們從比特幣大漲中分一杯羹。另一方面,隨著美國(guó)和其他國(guó)家轉(zhuǎn)用可再生能源,越來越多的化石燃料工廠需要尋找新客戶。如今,比特幣挖礦產(chǎn)業(yè)已經(jīng)讓關(guān)閉的天然氣工廠復(fù)工復(fù)產(chǎn),無論是在紐約、肯塔基還是得克薩斯。在賓夕法尼亞州,衰落的廢煤生意甚至出現(xiàn)了復(fù)蘇。比特幣的綠色未來并非一定會(huì)到來。
對(duì)比特幣的粉絲來說,比特幣價(jià)格的飆升是它與生俱來的權(quán)利,因?yàn)檫@是一種不腐敗的貨幣,是一種安全的價(jià)值儲(chǔ)存手段,或者是企業(yè)存放多余現(xiàn)金的高收益渠道。他們不會(huì)談?wù)摥h(huán)境的惡化,而這注定是未來的重要組成部分。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:Agatha
Now that Bitcoin’s price is rebounding from the sub-$30,000 lows of late June, the cryptocurrency’s champions are making still more jaw-dropping predictions on where it’s headed—or they’re replaying their former Brobdingnagian forecasts.
Fundstrat Global Advisors’ Tom Lee foresees a surge to $100,000 by the close of this year. That’s more than double its price of $46,000 at midafternoon on Aug. 13. Billionaire Tim Draper, an early investor in Tesla, Twitter, and Skype, is calling for $250,000 by the end of 2022. Cathie Wood of ARK Invest and ARK’s cryptocurrency analyst Yassine Elmandjra expect Bitcoin to reach $500,000, though they haven’t advanced a timeline for that feat.
The king of the bulls may be MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor, who has famously been amassing Bitcoin in his corporate treasury. Saylor believes that Bitcoin’s market cap is destined to explode from today’s $870 billion to $11 trillion, though he hasn’t said how fast it will ramp up to those heights. In that scenario, each coin would fetch $14 million.
These devoted fans, however, aren’t acknowledging a storm cloud that darkens Bitcoin’s future. If Bitcoin goes on a moonshot as they expect, its notorious carbon footprint will expand in lockstep. The industry that now sends as much carbon skywards as the nation of Greece will spew multiple times more, matching the emissions of far larger industrial nations. Put simply, unless Bitcoin goes green in the biggest of big ways, its built-in economics guarantee that as its price soars, the tonnage of carbon dioxide it gushes will rocket, too. For now, its zealots’ riches can grow only in tandem with Bitcoin’s carbon impact.
Bitcoin’s carbon footprint swells or shrinks with its price
At its price of roughly $46,000 on Aug. 13, annual revenues from mining Bitcoins are running at around $16 billion, including transaction fees paid to miners. Right now, producers are making tons of money because of the confluence of two forces: the currency’s fivefold jump in price over the past year, and the crackdown in China that, for now, has decimated half the world’s production, greatly boosting profits for the rest-of-the-world miners.
But let’s look out a few years. In late March of 2024, the Bitcoin algorithm dictates that the number of new coins released every 10 minutes will be halved, from 6.25 to 3.125. If Bitcoin’s price doesn’t budge, the industry will be a lot less profitable. Its champions predict just the opposite: a run in price that will much more than compensate for the decline in the number of coins the miners win each year. (By the way, that scenario has already played out three times.)
In the years to come, Bitcoin mining will become far more competitive, and its profitability will follow the economic laws governing all competitive businesses: When profits are enormous, new rivals jump in and drive those profits back to free-market levels. “The cost of ‘making’ a Bitcoin will eventually rise to the price of a Bitcoin,” says Alex de Vries, a Dutch economist whose website Digiconomist tracks Bitcoin’s carbon emissions. Of course, that “cost” includes a return on the miners’ capital decent enough to keep them in the game. Say Bitcoin’s price rises to $100,000 by Christmas of 2024, the “halving year.” That doubling from today’s prices would about equal the 50% decline in the number of coins awarded annually. The total size of the industry would expand by around 8%. Hence, the miners would be generating around 8% more CO2 than today. Bitcoin’s emissions would be getting moderately worse, even as developed nations rush to meet the goal for zero net emissions.
Of course, Bitcoin’s current environmental profile is already sowing consternation among such supporters as Elon Musk. But Musk, Saylor, and other standard-bearers should weigh the impact if Bitcoin hits a number like the $500,000 Wood is predicting. Say it reaches that summit at the end of 2024, or even a couple of years later. The industry’s size would explode from today’s $16 billion to $86 billion. In economic terms, it would “cost” the world’s miners the same $86 billion, including their modest profit margin needed to keep them cranking, to win those tens of billions in Bitcoin (again, adjusted for the halving in 2024).
De Vries reckons that 60% of all miners’ costs go to electricity over long periods, with the balance for capital expenditures, maintenance, overhead, and other expenses. So they’d be paying a total of $52 billion for power in three or more years (60% of their $86 billion in costs). By de Vries’s estimates, the average cost of electricity across the network is $40 a megawatt-hour (mwh). All told, the industry would be pumping 1.3 billion mwh of electricity a year ($52 billion spent on electricity at $40 per mwh). That’s around nine times the 140 million mwh in power generation that represented the peak output before the flight from China. De Vries estimates that the Bitcoin network now emits 475 grams of CO2 for each megawatt of power deployed. If that formula holds, Bitcoin at $500,000 would be belching 617 million metric tons of carbon a year.
That volume exceeds the footprint for Australia by 56%, Brazil by 40%, South Africa by 40%, and Mexico by 33%. Bitcoin mining would be spreading 70% more carbon gases annually than the United Kingdom’s 352 million metric tons. Its pollution levels would approach Germany’s at 696 million tons. The U.S. is now emitting 4,921 million tons a year. At a Bitcoin price of $500,000, the global industry would match an incredible 12% of the CO2 that drives the great American industrial engine, and heats and cools our 140 million homes.
Of course, many factors could improve this dire picture. Bitcoin could make a sharp shift toward wind, solar, and hydro. Or the demand for power could become so great that miners simply won’t be able to find the extra capacity they’re seeking to capitalize on the sumptuous prices. On the other hand, as America and other nations embrace renewables, more and more fossil fuel plants will be looking for new customers. Today, Bitcoin miners are already restoring shuttered natural gas plants from New York to Kentucky to Texas. In Pennsylvania, entrepreneurs are even reviving the fading waste coal business. No, a green future for Bitcoin isn’t inevitable as the current trends show.
For its fans, Bitcoin’s soaring price is its birthright as an incorruptible currency, a safe store of value, or a profitable place for companies to park excess cash. They’re not talking about the environmental blight that is part and parcel of that destiny.