柏林正在逐步進入盛夏時光:到公園和湖邊曬太陽的人越來越多,各大餐館客滿盈門,人們?nèi)ッ腊l(fā)店再也不會出示新冠病毒核酸檢測陰性證明了。柏林在6月27日甚至無新增新冠肺炎確診病例。
6月底,歐洲多地終于迎來了令人愉快的夏天。法國在6月底報告29例新冠肺炎死亡病例,這是自去年9月以來死亡病例最少的一天,人們聚集在塞納河畔,慶祝長達7個月的宵禁和封鎖結(jié)束。西班牙取消了戶外口罩令,馬德里和巴塞羅那的街上和露臺酒吧到處都是不戴口罩的人。6月26日晚上,意大利各地酒吧擠滿了球迷,他們?yōu)閰⒓託W洲杯(Euro Cup)的意大利足球隊歡呼。
“人們都認為新冠疫情即將結(jié)束。”盛寶銀行(Saxo Bank)的研究和戰(zhàn)略主管克里斯托弗?德姆比克說。“大家都覺得,新冠疫情總算要過去了。”
盡管有明顯向好消息,但歐洲旅游股在6月底開盤暴跌,高度傳染性的新冠肺炎病毒德爾塔變異毒株(在印度首次發(fā)現(xiàn),目前在英國快速蔓延)確診病例越來越多,致使歐洲各國政府擔心出現(xiàn)新一波疫情,而制定新的旅行限制可能會使歐洲夏季旅游旺季再遭重擊。
德爾塔變異毒株的蔓延將產(chǎn)生重大影響。隨著數(shù)月嚴格封鎖結(jié)束,歐元區(qū)再次迎來重開,而開放邊境對歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展至關(guān)重要。人們對2021年期望很高,商店店主、酒店經(jīng)營者和餐館老板都在為夏季銷售旺季做準備。
但德爾塔變異毒株給這一切蒙上了一層陰影,因為甚至一些完全接種疫苗的成年人也感染了德爾塔變異毒株。
“損失難以想象”
葡萄牙、德國、意大利和西班牙紛紛宣布收緊對英國游客的限制,在愛丁堡和曼徹斯特等城市,每10萬人7天內(nèi)新增病例數(shù)超400例,這些城市被列為歐盟“紅色”區(qū)。
截至6月28日,從英國入境葡萄牙的未接種新冠疫苗的旅客須在入境之后接受為期14天的隔離檢疫。6月29日,西班牙公布了新的規(guī)定,要求從英國入境的旅客須提供新冠病毒檢測陰性證明或疫苗接種證明,英國不再被列入無旅行限制清單。德國對來自葡萄牙和俄羅斯的游客實施了新的更嚴格的防疫限制措施,并將其列入目前只包含英國的清單。
與此同時,意大利規(guī)定,從英國入境的所有游客須在抵達后接受五天隔離檢疫,只有多次新冠病毒檢測呈陰性,才能夠離開。
意大利總理馬里奧?德拉吉在歐盟邊境政策上的態(tài)度特別強硬。這讓意大利的酒店經(jīng)營者憂心忡忡。
“來到這里的人必須接受一周或整個周末的隔離檢疫,這令人難以置信。俄羅斯和英國市場對我們很重要,我們可能會面臨失去它們,每個人都會遭受巨大的經(jīng)濟損失。”意大利艾米利亞-羅馬涅地區(qū)酒店貿(mào)易集團負責人亞歷山德羅?焦爾杰蒂在接受意大利日報《Corriere Romagna》采訪時表示。
股市下跌,歐元也受到波及
新的限制令讓投資者終日提心吊膽。6月28日,旅游和休閑類股票暴跌,STOXX 600旅游和休閑指數(shù)暴跌4.35%。在嚴重依賴旅游業(yè)的南歐國家中,意大利富時MIB指數(shù)(FTSE MIB)下跌1.1%,西班牙IBEX35指數(shù)下跌近2%。6月29日上午,西班牙旅游公司Amadeus、IAG和 Meliá酒店(Meliá Hotels)的股票再次下跌,跌幅約為2%。德國旅游運營商途易集團(TUI Group)的股票暴跌4%。
當然,歐元也受到波及,近幾周跌幅超3%,外匯匯率大幅下跌。歐元區(qū)各國首都也未能幸免。
經(jīng)濟和政治影響
為了遏制德爾塔變異毒株蔓延,歐洲各國政府愿意將旅游業(yè)——在南歐國家GDP占比超 12%——這樣一個重要行業(yè)置于危險境地,表明他們認識到,無論在政治上還是經(jīng)濟上,他們都承受不起新冠病毒死灰復(fù)燃。
“2021 年恢復(fù)強勁增長及 2022 年基本恢復(fù)常態(tài)面臨的唯一障礙仍然是變異毒株。”法國經(jīng)濟部部長布魯諾?勒梅爾于6月29日上午在CNews上說。“德爾塔變異毒株是真正影響增長的唯一風險。”
勒梅爾在5月預(yù)測,2020年GDP暴跌8.2%,今年預(yù)計將增長5%。他仍然表示,盡管GDP預(yù)期增長5%,但依舊要看數(shù)百萬法國民眾的新冠疫苗接種比例。法國國家統(tǒng)計局(INSEE)估計,2020年春季實施的最嚴格封鎖,致使政府每天花費近10億歐元。
法國總統(tǒng)埃馬紐埃爾?馬克龍和德國總理安格拉?默克爾的繼任者都將在明年面臨全國大選,新冠疫情死灰復(fù)燃,加上新的封鎖措施,可能會致使民調(diào)結(jié)果對他們不利。
“不重視德爾塔變異毒株大錯特錯。”巴伐利亞州的州長馬庫斯?索德爾在6月28日表示。他預(yù)計德爾塔變異毒株很快將會席卷德國。
目前感染率低
目前,歐洲感染率仍然很低。雖然柏林6月27日的零病例統(tǒng)計結(jié)果在一定程度上是源于德國周末報告疲軟,但這也象征性地反映了當?shù)噩F(xiàn)狀。柏林新增病例數(shù)持續(xù)下降,每10萬人7天內(nèi)新增病例僅5.9例。
西班牙周末報告10例死亡病例,死亡比例為51.5:1。但感染率不斷攀升,馬略卡島大規(guī)模學(xué)校畢業(yè)旅行此類超級傳播事件導(dǎo)致西班牙各地1,100多人感染,5,000 多人隔離,政府和股市再次陷入恐慌,這里才剛剛解除近18個月的新冠病毒疫情防控措施,經(jīng)濟才剛剛開始復(fù)蘇。
6月底,默克爾總理在可能是她在德國議會的最后一次致辭中——她將不再參加9月的聯(lián)邦選舉——敦促大家謹慎行事。她警告說,由于德爾塔變異毒株在全球快速蔓延,德國和歐盟各國“如履薄冰,我們必須時刻保持警惕。”(財富中文網(wǎng))
助理報道:駐羅馬記者伯恩哈德?華納。
翻譯:郝秀
審校:汪皓
柏林正在逐步進入盛夏時光:到公園和湖邊曬太陽的人越來越多,各大餐館客滿盈門,人們?nèi)ッ腊l(fā)店再也不會出示新冠病毒核酸檢測陰性證明了。柏林在6月27日甚至無新增新冠肺炎確診病例。
6月底,歐洲多地終于迎來了令人愉快的夏天。法國在6月底報告29例新冠肺炎死亡病例,這是自去年9月以來死亡病例最少的一天,人們聚集在塞納河畔,慶祝長達7個月的宵禁和封鎖結(jié)束。西班牙取消了戶外口罩令,馬德里和巴塞羅那的街上和露臺酒吧到處都是不戴口罩的人。6月26日晚上,意大利各地酒吧擠滿了球迷,他們?yōu)閰⒓託W洲杯(Euro Cup)的意大利足球隊歡呼。
“人們都認為新冠疫情即將結(jié)束。”盛寶銀行(Saxo Bank)的研究和戰(zhàn)略主管克里斯托弗?德姆比克說。“大家都覺得,新冠疫情總算要過去了。”
盡管有明顯向好消息,但歐洲旅游股在6月底開盤暴跌,高度傳染性的新冠肺炎病毒德爾塔變異毒株(在印度首次發(fā)現(xiàn),目前在英國快速蔓延)確診病例越來越多,致使歐洲各國政府擔心出現(xiàn)新一波疫情,而制定新的旅行限制可能會使歐洲夏季旅游旺季再遭重擊。
德爾塔變異毒株的蔓延將產(chǎn)生重大影響。隨著數(shù)月嚴格封鎖結(jié)束,歐元區(qū)再次迎來重開,而開放邊境對歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展至關(guān)重要。人們對2021年期望很高,商店店主、酒店經(jīng)營者和餐館老板都在為夏季銷售旺季做準備。
但德爾塔變異毒株給這一切蒙上了一層陰影,因為甚至一些完全接種疫苗的成年人也感染了德爾塔變異毒株。
“損失難以想象”
葡萄牙、德國、意大利和西班牙紛紛宣布收緊對英國游客的限制,在愛丁堡和曼徹斯特等城市,每10萬人7天內(nèi)新增病例數(shù)超400例,這些城市被列為歐盟“紅色”區(qū)。
截至6月28日,從英國入境葡萄牙的未接種新冠疫苗的旅客須在入境之后接受為期14天的隔離檢疫。6月29日,西班牙公布了新的規(guī)定,要求從英國入境的旅客須提供新冠病毒檢測陰性證明或疫苗接種證明,英國不再被列入無旅行限制清單。德國對來自葡萄牙和俄羅斯的游客實施了新的更嚴格的防疫限制措施,并將其列入目前只包含英國的清單。
與此同時,意大利規(guī)定,從英國入境的所有游客須在抵達后接受五天隔離檢疫,只有多次新冠病毒檢測呈陰性,才能夠離開。
意大利總理馬里奧?德拉吉在歐盟邊境政策上的態(tài)度特別強硬。這讓意大利的酒店經(jīng)營者憂心忡忡。
“來到這里的人必須接受一周或整個周末的隔離檢疫,這令人難以置信。俄羅斯和英國市場對我們很重要,我們可能會面臨失去它們,每個人都會遭受巨大的經(jīng)濟損失。”意大利艾米利亞-羅馬涅地區(qū)酒店貿(mào)易集團負責人亞歷山德羅?焦爾杰蒂在接受意大利日報《Corriere Romagna》采訪時表示。
股市下跌,歐元也受到波及
新的限制令讓投資者終日提心吊膽。6月28日,旅游和休閑類股票暴跌,STOXX 600旅游和休閑指數(shù)暴跌4.35%。在嚴重依賴旅游業(yè)的南歐國家中,意大利富時MIB指數(shù)(FTSE MIB)下跌1.1%,西班牙IBEX35指數(shù)下跌近2%。6月29日上午,西班牙旅游公司Amadeus、IAG和 Meliá酒店(Meliá Hotels)的股票再次下跌,跌幅約為2%。德國旅游運營商途易集團(TUI Group)的股票暴跌4%。
當然,歐元也受到波及,近幾周跌幅超3%,外匯匯率大幅下跌。歐元區(qū)各國首都也未能幸免。
經(jīng)濟和政治影響
為了遏制德爾塔變異毒株蔓延,歐洲各國政府愿意將旅游業(yè)——在南歐國家GDP占比超 12%——這樣一個重要行業(yè)置于危險境地,表明他們認識到,無論在政治上還是經(jīng)濟上,他們都承受不起新冠病毒死灰復(fù)燃。
“2021 年恢復(fù)強勁增長及 2022 年基本恢復(fù)常態(tài)面臨的唯一障礙仍然是變異毒株。”法國經(jīng)濟部部長布魯諾?勒梅爾于6月29日上午在CNews上說。“德爾塔變異毒株是真正影響增長的唯一風險。”
勒梅爾在5月預(yù)測,2020年GDP暴跌8.2%,今年預(yù)計將增長5%。他仍然表示,盡管GDP預(yù)期增長5%,但依舊要看數(shù)百萬法國民眾的新冠疫苗接種比例。法國國家統(tǒng)計局(INSEE)估計,2020年春季實施的最嚴格封鎖,致使政府每天花費近10億歐元。
法國總統(tǒng)埃馬紐埃爾?馬克龍和德國總理安格拉?默克爾的繼任者都將在明年面臨全國大選,新冠疫情死灰復(fù)燃,加上新的封鎖措施,可能會致使民調(diào)結(jié)果對他們不利。
“不重視德爾塔變異毒株大錯特錯。”巴伐利亞州的州長馬庫斯?索德爾在6月28日表示。他預(yù)計德爾塔變異毒株很快將會席卷德國。
目前感染率低
目前,歐洲感染率仍然很低。雖然柏林6月27日的零病例統(tǒng)計結(jié)果在一定程度上是源于德國周末報告疲軟,但這也象征性地反映了當?shù)噩F(xiàn)狀。柏林新增病例數(shù)持續(xù)下降,每10萬人7天內(nèi)新增病例僅5.9例。
西班牙周末報告10例死亡病例,死亡比例為51.5:1。但感染率不斷攀升,馬略卡島大規(guī)模學(xué)校畢業(yè)旅行此類超級傳播事件導(dǎo)致西班牙各地1,100多人感染,5,000 多人隔離,政府和股市再次陷入恐慌,這里才剛剛解除近18個月的新冠病毒疫情防控措施,經(jīng)濟才剛剛開始復(fù)蘇。
6月底,默克爾總理在可能是她在德國議會的最后一次致辭中——她將不再參加9月的聯(lián)邦選舉——敦促大家謹慎行事。她警告說,由于德爾塔變異毒株在全球快速蔓延,德國和歐盟各國“如履薄冰,我們必須時刻保持警惕。”(財富中文網(wǎng))
助理報道:駐羅馬記者伯恩哈德?華納。
翻譯:郝秀
審校:汪皓
Summer in Berlin was shaping up to be glorious: People are soaking up the sun in parks and on lakeshores, restaurants are full again, and you no longer need to get a COVID test to visit the hairdresser. There were even no new cases recorded in the city on June 27.
Summer’s optimistic arrival was repeated across Europe at the end of June. People crowded along the banks of the Seine, celebrating the end of seven months of nighttime curfews and lockdown restrictions as France reported 29 deaths at the end of June, the lowest rate since September last year. In Spain, the sidewalks and terrace bars of Madrid and Barcelona filled with maskless residents as the country dropped its outdoor mask mandate. Across Italy, bars filled up on June 26 night as fans cheered on the Italian soccer team in the Euro Cup tournament.
“Everyone is buying this story that this is the end of the pandemic chapter,” says Christopher Dembik, director of research and strategy at Saxo Bank. “There’s a feeling that this is more or less over.”
But despite the apparent good news, European travel stocks crashed as the week began, with rising case numbers of the highly transmissible COVID-19 Delta variant (first found in India, and now widespread in the U.K.) leading European governments to worry aloud about a new disease wave—and to enact new travel restrictions that threaten to put the continent’s vital summer tourist season at risk.
There’s a lot on the line. Open borders are key to the eurozone’s economic fortunes as months of strict lockdown measures give way to yet another grand reopening. The 2021 version comes with even higher expectations as shop owners, hoteliers, and restaurateurs make plans for a big summer.
The Delta variant, which is even infecting some fully vaccinated adults, threatens to dash all that.
“Unthinkable damage”
Portugal, Germany, Italy, and Spain all announced enhanced restrictions, largely related to travelers from the U.K., where the seven-day case load per 100,000 inhabitants in cities like Edinburgh and Manchester surpassed 400, putting them well into the EU’s “red” zone.
As of June 28, unvaccinated U.K. travelers to Portugal will have to quarantine for two weeks. On June 29, Spain published new rules obliging people entering from the U.K. to provide a negative COVID test or proof of vaccination, reversing a previous plan that put the U.K. on an unrestricted travel list. And Germany placed tough new quarantine restrictions on travelers from Portugal and Russia, adding them to a list on which only the U.K. had appeared.
Italy, meanwhile, now mandates that all travelers entering the country from the U.K. go into quarantine upon arrival. They cannot exit isolation until five days have passed, and only after they’ve produced multiple negative COVID-19 tests.
Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi has taken a particularly hard line on EU border policy. That has Italy’s hotel operators worried.
“It is unthinkable that one would come for a week or a long weekend having to undergo quarantine. The Russian and English markets are significant for us, and we risk losing them with more than significant economic damage for everyone,” Alessandro Giorgetti, head of the hotel trade group for Italy’s Emilia-Romagna region, told the Italian daily Corriere Romagna.
Stocks sink, euro slides
The new restrictions are making investors jumpy. Travel and leisure stocks crashed June 28, with the STOXX 600 travel and leisure index plunging 4.35%. In tourist-dependent southern Europe, Italy’s FTSE MIB dropped 1.1%, and Spain’s IBEX 35 fell almost 2%. On June 29 morning in Spain, travel firms Amadeus, IAG, and Meliá Hotels all fell again, down by some 2%. And German tour operator TUI Group tumbled 4% lower.
Not surprisingly, the euro is under pressure, too, down more than 3% in recent weeks, a big drop in foreign-exchange terms. And the pressure is being felt in national capitals across the bloc.
Economic and political fallout
The willingness of European governments to put at risk an industry as vital as the travel sector—which accounts for more than 12% of GDP in southern European countries—in order to curb the Delta variant is proof of their realization that they cannot afford a resurgence of the pandemic, either politically or economically.
“The sole obstacle remaining on the path to a very strong return to growth in 2021, and a return to total normality in 2022, is the risk of variants,” Bruno Le Maire, France’s economy minister, said on network CNews June 29 morning. “The Delta variant is the only real risk for growth.”
Le Maire predicted 5% growth this year in May, after a disastrous 8.2% drop in GDP in 2020, and said that while that was still expected, it depended heavily on millions of French people being vaccinated against COVID-19. In France, the statistics agency INSEE estimated that the strictest lockdown, imposed in spring 2020, cost the government about €1 billion a day.
Both French President Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel’s successor in Germany face national elections in the next year, and a resurgence of the pandemic, with new lockdowns, could well scuttle their chances at the polls.
“Ignoring the Delta variant would be a serious mistake,” warned Markus S?der, the state premier of Bavaria, on June 28. S?der said he expected the Delta variant to soon become dominant in Germany.
Low infection rates—for now
For now, infection rates in Europe remain low. While Berlin’s zero-case count on June 27 is partly a product of Germany’s weak weekend reporting, it is a symbolically powerful reflection of reality on the ground. The capital’s new-infection rate has continued to fall, and currently stands at a mere 5.9 cases per 100,000 inhabitants over the past seven days.
In Spain, which reported 10 deaths over the weekend, the rate is 51.5. But infection rates have been creeping up, and superspreader events like massive end-of-school parties in Mallorca, which resulted in over 1,100 infections and 5,000 people in quarantine across Spain, have struck fear into the governments—and stocks—of a continent only just recovering from almost 18 months of punishing antivirus measures.
At the end of June, Chancellor Angela Merkel used what was probably her final address to Germany’s parliament—she will step down at September’s federal election—to urge caution. Germany and the wider European Union are “skating on thin ice,” she warned, thanks to the Delta variant. “We must remain vigilant.”
With additional reporting from Bernhard Warner in Rome.