周一,印度迎來了一則好消息:上一財年的經濟萎縮幅度低于預期。
根據政府數據,印度上一個財政年(截至今年3月)的國內生產總值下降了7.3%。而印度官方在2月份的預估是縮水8%。
在印度公布這些經濟數據的時候,其依然深陷在毀滅性的第二波疫情之中。新一波疫情已造成數百萬人感染、數萬人死亡。即使經濟數據比預期的要好,也沒有任何理由感到樂觀:GDP下降7.3%,這仍然是自1951年以來最嚴重的記錄。而且這些數字也沒有完全體現從上一財年末開始席卷該國的第二波疫情的影響。事實上,1月至3月的季度數據顯示,就在第二波疫情襲來之前,經濟狀況還比上一年增長了1.6%。
經濟學家正在猜測印度將如何走出困境,一旦第二波疫情帶來的經濟損失如數盡顯。
他們估計,最新的這一波疫情已將印度經濟復蘇的進程推遲了三到六個月,具體取決于病毒的發展狀況,以及如果出現第三波疫情,該國的準備工作做得如何。
5月初,印度的每日感染人數達到400,000例以上的峰值,自那以后所好轉:感染率現已降至每天152,734例,死亡人數降至每天3,128例左右,這是4周以來的最低點。
“經濟復蘇的進度可能只會放慢一個季度,前提是第二波疫情的影響不會超過6月,”安永(印度)的首席政策顧問斯里瓦斯塔瓦表示。他說,經濟復蘇將取決于未來幾周和幾個月的疫苗接種速度和政府政策干預程度。盡管目前疫苗供應短缺,但印度衛生部長哈什?瓦爾丹(Harsh Vardhan)已承諾,在今年年底前,至少要為印度所有成年人口接種疫苗。
普華永道(印度)的合伙人兼經濟咨詢服務負責人雷南?班納吉(Ranen Banerjee)表示,第二波疫情將使印度經濟復蘇的步伐延緩六個月。
班納吉說:“如果沒有疫情的打擊,那我們有望在本財年實現9%至10%的增長。”他曾估計,在第二波疫情到來前,印度今年的經濟將增長11%。不過他也表示,第二波疫情給經濟帶來的沖擊“不會很嚴重”。
盡管感染病例和死亡人數激增,但在封城期間,政府仍允許一些工廠繼續開工,使工業生產并沒有停滯太多,這減緩了經濟下滑的情形。
為了避免印度經濟受到如2020年3月第一波疫情時一樣嚴重的傷害,納倫德拉?莫迪政府拒絕在疫情期間宣布全國封鎖。當時,印度實行的封鎖措施是世界上最嚴格的之一。
班納吉表示,制造業和服務業在4月份保持良好,耗電量等其他關鍵指標也是如此。但是,5月份的數據更能說明問題,將更準確地反映出第二波疫情造成的損害。
如果第二波浪潮持續緩解,印度傳統的夏季作物播種季節(即 6 月至 9 月的季風季節)將不會受到影響。
由于去年降水充沛,印度去年的農作物收成創了記錄。據印度氣象局(India Meteorological Department)預測,今年即將到來的季風季也會有大量降水。
但是,第二波疫情已經蔓延到了印度的農村地區——約占該國商品和服務總需求的40%。“很多人都已經目睹了第二波疫情的威力,還有各種第三波疫情的傳言。對消費者行為的影響顯而易見。”惠譽國際(Fitch Group)旗下的印度評級與研究公司(India Ratings and Research)首席經濟學家蘇尼爾?辛哈說。
5月31日,領先的行業組織——印度工商聯合會(Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry)表示,一項對其成員的新研究顯示,在第二波疫情爆發之前的3月份,商業信心的分數已從近10年來的高點74.2分暴跌至55.5分。3月時,有56%的受訪者對需求疲軟表示擔憂,現在達到了70%。預計近期銷售情況會好轉的公司數目則從66%降至31%。
但是,印度股市的投資者仍對疲弱的前景不覺擔憂。5月31日,基準的標普BSE SENSEX指數上漲1%,至5193744點,為2月17日以來的最高水平(但是收盤時間是在GDP數據發布之前)。6月1日,樂觀情緒并未減弱,該指數在早盤交易中上漲0.1%。
市場觀察員表示,當前股票市場的樂觀情緒來自于新冠新增病例數的減少,以及全球經濟的復蘇,后者將有助于印度出口業的回暖。
德勤印度(Deloitte India)經濟學家讓基?馬宗達爾對印度今年下半年的經濟前景表示樂觀。
“經濟活動會在下半財年迅速復蘇。”她說,“感染率下降、疫苗接種速度或將加快以及接下來幾個月即將到來的節日等因素,再加上被壓制的旺盛需求,消費者和投資支出可能會得到提振。”
在夏季作物收獲和排燈節等一系列節日開始之后的9月至10月,印度消費者傾向于購買更多的商品。(財富中文網)
編譯:陳聰聰、楊二一
周一,印度迎來了一則好消息:上一財年的經濟萎縮幅度低于預期。
根據政府數據,印度上一個財政年(截至今年3月)的國內生產總值下降了7.3%。而印度官方在2月份的預估是縮水8%。
在印度公布這些經濟數據的時候,其依然深陷在毀滅性的第二波疫情之中。新一波疫情已造成數百萬人感染、數萬人死亡。即使經濟數據比預期的要好,也沒有任何理由感到樂觀:GDP下降7.3%,這仍然是自1951年以來最嚴重的記錄。而且這些數字也沒有完全體現從上一財年末開始席卷該國的第二波疫情的影響。事實上,1月至3月的季度數據顯示,就在第二波疫情襲來之前,經濟狀況還比上一年增長了1.6%。
經濟學家正在猜測印度將如何走出困境,一旦第二波疫情帶來的經濟損失如數盡顯。
他們估計,最新的這一波疫情已將印度經濟復蘇的進程推遲了三到六個月,具體取決于病毒的發展狀況,以及如果出現第三波疫情,該國的準備工作做得如何。
5月初,印度的每日感染人數達到400,000例以上的峰值,自那以后所好轉:感染率現已降至每天152,734例,死亡人數降至每天3,128例左右,這是4周以來的最低點。
“經濟復蘇的進度可能只會放慢一個季度,前提是第二波疫情的影響不會超過6月,”安永(印度)的首席政策顧問斯里瓦斯塔瓦表示。他說,經濟復蘇將取決于未來幾周和幾個月的疫苗接種速度和政府政策干預程度。盡管目前疫苗供應短缺,但印度衛生部長哈什?瓦爾丹(Harsh Vardhan)已承諾,在今年年底前,至少要為印度所有成年人口接種疫苗。
普華永道(印度)的合伙人兼經濟咨詢服務負責人雷南?班納吉(Ranen Banerjee)表示,第二波疫情將使印度經濟復蘇的步伐延緩六個月。
班納吉說:“如果沒有疫情的打擊,那我們有望在本財年實現9%至10%的增長。”他曾估計,在第二波疫情到來前,印度今年的經濟將增長11%。不過他也表示,第二波疫情給經濟帶來的沖擊“不會很嚴重”。
盡管感染病例和死亡人數激增,但在封城期間,政府仍允許一些工廠繼續開工,使工業生產并沒有停滯太多,這減緩了經濟下滑的情形。
為了避免印度經濟受到如2020年3月第一波疫情時一樣嚴重的傷害,納倫德拉?莫迪政府拒絕在疫情期間宣布全國封鎖。當時,印度實行的封鎖措施是世界上最嚴格的之一。
班納吉表示,制造業和服務業在4月份保持良好,耗電量等其他關鍵指標也是如此。但是,5月份的數據更能說明問題,將更準確地反映出第二波疫情造成的損害。
如果第二波浪潮持續緩解,印度傳統的夏季作物播種季節(即 6 月至 9 月的季風季節)將不會受到影響。
由于去年降水充沛,印度去年的農作物收成創了記錄。據印度氣象局(India Meteorological Department)預測,今年即將到來的季風季也會有大量降水。
但是,第二波疫情已經蔓延到了印度的農村地區——約占該國商品和服務總需求的40%。“很多人都已經目睹了第二波疫情的威力,還有各種第三波疫情的傳言。對消費者行為的影響顯而易見。”惠譽國際(Fitch Group)旗下的印度評級與研究公司(India Ratings and Research)首席經濟學家蘇尼爾?辛哈說。
5月31日,領先的行業組織——印度工商聯合會(Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry)表示,一項對其成員的新研究顯示,在第二波疫情爆發之前的3月份,商業信心的分數已從近10年來的高點74.2分暴跌至55.5分。3月時,有56%的受訪者對需求疲軟表示擔憂,現在達到了70%。預計近期銷售情況會好轉的公司數目則從66%降至31%。
但是,印度股市的投資者仍對疲弱的前景不覺擔憂。5月31日,基準的標普BSE SENSEX指數上漲1%,至5193744點,為2月17日以來的最高水平(但是收盤時間是在GDP數據發布之前)。6月1日,樂觀情緒并未減弱,該指數在早盤交易中上漲0.1%。
市場觀察員表示,當前股票市場的樂觀情緒來自于新冠新增病例數的減少,以及全球經濟的復蘇,后者將有助于印度出口業的回暖。
德勤印度(Deloitte India)經濟學家讓基?馬宗達爾對印度今年下半年的經濟前景表示樂觀。
“經濟活動會在下半財年迅速復蘇。”她說,“感染率下降、疫苗接種速度或將加快以及接下來幾個月即將到來的節日等因素,再加上被壓制的旺盛需求,消費者和投資支出可能會得到提振。”
在夏季作物收獲和排燈節等一系列節日開始之后的9月至10月,印度消費者傾向于購買更多的商品。(財富中文網)
編譯:陳聰聰、楊二一
India received a sliver of good news on Monday: Its economy shrank less than expected last fiscal year.
According to government figures, the country’s gross domestic product dropped 7.3% in the fiscal year ended in March. In February, officials estimated the economy would contract by 8%.
India published its economic data as it continues to confront a devastating second wave of COVID-19 that has infected millions and killed tens of thousands. Even though the results surpassed expectations, there was little reason to be upbeat: The 7.3% GDP drop is still the worst on record since 1951. The numbers also do not fully account for the second COVID wave that ravaged the country starting at the end of the last fiscal year. In fact, quarterly data for January through March shows the economy grew 1.6% versus the previous year right before the second wave hit.
Economists are now speculating about how India will dig itself out of that hole once the second wave’s economic damage is fully realized.
They estimate that the latest outbreak has pushed back India’s economic recovery by three to six months, depending on the virus’s trajectory and the nation’s preparedness for a possible third wave.
Since hitting a peak above 400,000 daily cases in early May, the infection rate has dropped to 152,734 per day, and the number of deaths have fallen to around a four-week low of 3,128 daily.
“The delay in economic recovery would be limited to just about a quarter, provided the COVID’s second wave is not allowed to last much beyond June,” said D.K. Srivastava, chief policy adviser at EY India. He said the economic recovery would depend on the pace of vaccination and government policy interventions in the coming weeks and months. India’s Health Minister, Harsh Vardhan, has pledged to vaccinate at least all of the adult population by the end of the year, notwithstanding a current supply shortage.
Ranen Banerjee, partner and leader of economic advisory services at accounting firm PwC India, says the second wave will delay India’s economic recovery by six months.
“If we are not hit by any more COVID waves, then we can expect to grow in the range of 9% to 10% this financial year,” Banerjee said. Prior to the second wave of COVID, he had estimated that India’s economy would grow by 11% this year. Still, he says, the second wave’s economic disruption “will not be very severe.”
Despite the surge in COVID cases and deaths, state governments have allowed some factories to stay open, even amid lockdowns, which has blunted any downturn in industrial activity.
The Narendra Modi administration has resisted declaring a nationwide lockdown during this outbreak partly to spare the economy the harm it endured in the first wave in March 2020, when India enforced one of the world’s strictest sets of restrictions.
Manufacturing and services sector activity held up well in April, Banerjee said, as did other key indicators like electricity consumption. But data for May will be especially telling since it will better reflect the damage done by the second wave.
If the second wave continues to ease, it will spare India’s traditional summer crop sowing season, which takes place during monsoon season, from June to September.
India produced a record crop last year following a bountiful rainy period. The India Meteorological Department has predicted good monsoon rains for the upcoming season too.
Still, the second wave has spread to India’s rural areas, which account for roughly 40% of overall demand for goods and services. “Lots of people have witnessed the second wave, and there is talk of a third wave. You will see an impact on consumer behavior,” said Sunil Sinha, principal economist at India Ratings and Research, a Fitch Group company.
On Monday, the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry, a leading industry body, said a new survey of its members showed that business confidence had plunged to a score of 55.5 after touching a 10-year high of 74.2 in a survey conducted prior to the second wave of COVID in March. Seventy percent of participants in the new survey reported being concerned about weak demand, versus 56% in March. The number of firms expecting better sales in the near term declined to 31% from 66%.
Meanwhile, investors in India’s stock markets remain unfazed by the weak outlook. The benchmark S&P BSE SENSEX on Monday rose by 1% to 51,937,44, the highest since Feb. 17, though the close came before the release of GDP data. On Tuesday, the positive sentiment was undimmed. The index ticked up 0.1% in early trading.
Market observers say the current stock market sentiment is driven by relief over falling COVID cases as well as prospects of a global recovery, which will help Indian exports.
Rumki Majumdar, economist at Deloitte India, was optimistic about India’s economic prospects later this year.
“Economic activity will pick up rapidly in the second half of the financial year,” she said. Factors such as falling infections, a potential increase in the pace of vaccination, and the oncoming festivals in the following months will likely boost consumer and investment spending owing to strong pent-up demand.”
Indian consumers tend to buy more goods starting in September and October, following the harvest of summer crops and as a series of festivals, including Diwali, get underway.