截至目前,4月份美股表現強勁,標普500指數和道瓊斯工業平均指數均創歷史新高。但是從現在起投資者可能要面臨逆轉直下的行情走勢。
根據LPL Financial公司的數據,股市出現逆轉的部分原因在于雖然4月通常是美股表現最強勁的月份之一,但歷史上股市大漲的局面大都出現在上半月。
事實也的確如此,LPL公司的瑞安·德特里克告訴《財富》雜志:“我們看到2021年的前三個月股市呈現這樣一種態勢:上半月表現非常強勁,下半月有些疲軟無力。”他說道:“4月份最后十天左右股市似乎有些震蕩。此外,他還指出“按照歷史規律,一年中股票下跌最慘的時段通常是5月至10月底,盡管去年一年美股反彈至創紀錄高點,但很顯然動蕩時期即將來臨。”
德特里克補充說道:“短期內投資者最大的擔憂可能就是這一動蕩時期已經近在眼前了。”
對投資者而言,這無疑是一次重大轉折,投資者不再順風順水,波動率(按波動率指數或恐慌指標衡量)跌至新冠疫情前水平。因此,瑞銀集團(UBS)等企業紛紛發出警告。瑞銀全球財富管理(UBS Global Wealth Management)首席投資官馬克·海菲勒4月9日在一份報告中寫道:“隨著股票市場持續創下歷史新高,一些投資者擔心最近的波動率下滑可能不會持續下去”,并預測“短期內波動率還將定期維持高位。”
除此之外,德特里克等人稱股市行情持續看漲這一現象可能本身也是一種警示信號:“至少對我而言最大的擔憂就是一切都太好了。”隨著強勁的經濟數據出爐,正如預期的那樣,第一季度實現“井噴式”盈利,德特里克表示:“按照我的逆向思維來看,不知道這一利好消息在多大程度上反映在股價中。”因此,如果未來幾個月股市出現一兩次修正(嚴格來說,股市下跌10%),他也不會感到驚訝。
與此同時,隨著投資者將股價推至歷史新高,股票市場的估值水平飆升(標普500指數的歷史市盈率倍數達到33倍之高)。這導致一些分析師和市場觀察者都非常小心謹慎。
截至目前,本周一股市全線下跌。在下午的交易中,標普500指數下跌約0.6%,道指下跌約0.4%,納斯達克的跌幅更是超過了1.1%。
但是,不論是按照歷史規律出現季節性疲軟還是短期內可能迎來更高波動率,都未能打消分析師對股市長期看漲的預期。德特里克認為:“股市一旦劇烈震蕩將會引起恐慌。但是投資者需要為此做好準備……并借此機會用更低的價格買進股票,這是我們依舊認為股市將會上漲最重要的原因。”(財富中文網)
譯者:郝秀
審校:汪皓
截至目前,4月份美股表現強勁,標普500指數和道瓊斯工業平均指數均創歷史新高。但是從現在起投資者可能要面臨逆轉直下的行情走勢。
根據LPL Financial公司的數據,股市出現逆轉的部分原因在于雖然4月通常是美股表現最強勁的月份之一,但歷史上股市大漲的局面大都出現在上半月。
事實也的確如此,LPL公司的瑞安·德特里克告訴《財富》雜志:“我們看到2021年的前三個月股市呈現這樣一種態勢:上半月表現非常強勁,下半月有些疲軟無力。”他說道:“4月份最后十天左右股市似乎有些震蕩。此外,他還指出“按照歷史規律,一年中股票下跌最慘的時段通常是5月至10月底,盡管去年一年美股反彈至創紀錄高點,但很顯然動蕩時期即將來臨。”
德特里克補充說道:“短期內投資者最大的擔憂可能就是這一動蕩時期已經近在眼前了。”
對投資者而言,這無疑是一次重大轉折,投資者不再順風順水,波動率(按波動率指數或恐慌指標衡量)跌至新冠疫情前水平。因此,瑞銀集團(UBS)等企業紛紛發出警告。瑞銀全球財富管理(UBS Global Wealth Management)首席投資官馬克·海菲勒4月9日在一份報告中寫道:“隨著股票市場持續創下歷史新高,一些投資者擔心最近的波動率下滑可能不會持續下去”,并預測“短期內波動率還將定期維持高位。”
除此之外,德特里克等人稱股市行情持續看漲這一現象可能本身也是一種警示信號:“至少對我而言最大的擔憂就是一切都太好了。”隨著強勁的經濟數據出爐,正如預期的那樣,第一季度實現“井噴式”盈利,德特里克表示:“按照我的逆向思維來看,不知道這一利好消息在多大程度上反映在股價中。”因此,如果未來幾個月股市出現一兩次修正(嚴格來說,股市下跌10%),他也不會感到驚訝。
與此同時,隨著投資者將股價推至歷史新高,股票市場的估值水平飆升(標普500指數的歷史市盈率倍數達到33倍之高)。這導致一些分析師和市場觀察者都非常小心謹慎。
截至目前,本周一股市全線下跌。在下午的交易中,標普500指數下跌約0.6%,道指下跌約0.4%,納斯達克的跌幅更是超過了1.1%。
但是,不論是按照歷史規律出現季節性疲軟還是短期內可能迎來更高波動率,都未能打消分析師對股市長期看漲的預期。德特里克認為:“股市一旦劇烈震蕩將會引起恐慌。但是投資者需要為此做好準備……并借此機會用更低的價格買進股票,這是我們依舊認為股市將會上漲最重要的原因。”(財富中文網)
譯者:郝秀
審校:汪皓
So far in April stocks have had a great month, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrial average notching all-time highs. But things may be about to take a rockier turn for investors from here on out.
That’s in part because, although April generally tends to be one of the best months for the stock market, historically most of those gains are racked up in the first half of the month, per LPL Financial data.
Indeed, LPL’s Ryan Detrick tells Fortune that “this year, we’ve seen the pattern play out the first three months of really strong equities [in] the first half of the month and then some weakness the second half of the month,” and that “the last 10 days or so of April are kind of a little more rocky,” he says. What’s more, he notes that “the worst six months of the year historically is May through Halloween, and that is obviously on the horizon after just a record-breaking 12-month rally.”
Adds Detrick: “The calendar could potentially be one of investors’ biggest near-term worries.”
That would certainly be a turnaround from what has been a smooth stretch for investors, with volatility (as measured by the VIX index, or fear gauge) falling to pre-pandemic levels. That has prompted some firms like UBS to caution that, “with markets continuing to hit record highs, some investors are concerned that the recent decline in volatility may not last,” predicting “periodic bouts of higher volatility in the near term,” UBS Global Wealth Management chief investment officer Mark Haefele wrote in an April 9 report.
But more than that, those like Detrick note there’s so much bullishness all around that that might be its own warning sign: “The No. 1 concern, at least for me, is just everything is really good.” With strong economic data coming out and an expected “blowout” Q1 earnings season kicking off, “the contrarian in me wonders how much of this good news is priced in,” Detrick says. That’s why he wouldn’t be surprised if stocks saw a correction (technically a 10% selloff) or two in the coming months.
Meanwhile with investors pushing stocks up to all-time highs, valuations keep soaring (the S&P 500’s trailing P/E is a heady 33 times earnings). That in itself is making some analysts and market watchers alike wary.
So far on Monday, stocks are down across the board, with the S&P 500 down roughly 0.6%, the Dow off around 0.4%, and the Nasdaq over 1.1% lower in afternoon trading.
But neither the historically weaker seasonality nor the prospect of higher volatility in the near term are putting analysts off their bullish longer-term expectations. “It’ll be scary when it happens,” argues Detrick, “but investors need to start preparing for it…and use it as an opportunity to get things a little cheaper, which again is the name of the game in [what] we still think is an upward bull market.”