華爾街低估美聯(lián)儲？加息或早于預期
Anne Sraders
2021-03-17
最近幾周，華爾街一直在糾結(jié)一個問題：板塊輪換有道理嗎？
摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的高級證券投資經(jīng)理安德魯·斯利蒙認為，華爾街可能低估了未來幾個月利率（尤其是10年期國債收益率）快速上升的風險。高收益往往不利于風險較高的高增長股票，因為相比之下，債券等更安全的資產(chǎn)對投資者更有吸引力。
斯利蒙告訴《財富》雜志，美債收益率更有可能較快地攀升，因為“經(jīng)濟比市場普遍認為的要好，我認為其增速將超過市場普遍預期，進而高出人們預計的水平。”此外，隨著美國人拿到新的紓困資金，他預計5月的10年期國債收益率將達到2%，超過許多華爾街人士的預期。
“我認為風險在于利率上升的比人們想象的要高、要快。”他說。
斯利蒙的理由是目前包括標普500指數(shù)（S&P 500）、小盤股、銅和石油在內(nèi)的大型經(jīng)濟敏感板塊的價格全面高于新冠疫情之前。“所有證據(jù)都表明，‘經(jīng)濟已經(jīng)開始運轉(zhuǎn)起來了。’唯一的例外就是利率。”
實際上，盡管近幾周美國的10年期國債收益率躍升至1.6%以上，并讓成長型投資者感到不安，但收益率仍然低于去年年初的水平。“如果[收益率]5月升至2%，經(jīng)濟增長將再次遭受重創(chuàng)，價值型投資將進一步加速。”斯利蒙認為。“這樣的輪換操作將繼續(xù)下去。”
納斯達克（Nasdaq）綜合指數(shù)近期反彈——盡管3月12日下跌，但自3月8日以來仍然上漲了5.6%，不過斯利蒙并未“把這次上漲視為加倉價值股的機會”，而是削減了科技股和成長股的倉位。
他偏愛的價值導向板塊包括金融和材料股。
盡管近期表現(xiàn)強勁，但和科技股相比，金融股的市盈率很低（根據(jù)標普全球的數(shù)據(jù)，該板塊目前市盈率約為10倍），因而對斯利蒙特別有吸引力。他說，金融股的“盈利預測調(diào)整也比一些科技股要好”。“我認為目前這是一個更讓人感興趣的領(lǐng)域。”
這并不是說投資者應(yīng)當全面退出科技板塊。斯利蒙認為，如果到10月或11月美國利率“緩慢”升至2%，成長股就應(yīng)該和整體市場一樣表現(xiàn)良好。他補充道：“這并不是說你不能把一部分資金投入這些股票，但要認識到它們的波動性非常、非常大。”
然而，長遠來看，他也在關(guān)注“質(zhì)量較高”的分紅型防御性股票——如果利率繼續(xù)攀升，這些股票可能會在未來幾年帶來誘人的機會。（斯利蒙認為將出現(xiàn)這樣的情況，因為到2021年年底，債券收益率可能達到2.5%。）
斯利蒙指出，醫(yī)療保健和必需消費品等板塊“確實已經(jīng)落后了一段時間”。雖然他的目標不是在低風險領(lǐng)域增持股票，但斯利蒙指出：“當美聯(lián)儲說‘好的，我們要加息了’，而價值型股票開始回落時，我不知道人們會不會重拾增長型個股。我覺得人們會尋找安全的投資對象。”（財富中文網(wǎng)）
譯者：梁宇
審校：夏林
最近幾周，華爾街一直在糾結(jié)一個問題：板塊輪換有道理嗎？
摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的高級證券投資經(jīng)理安德魯·斯利蒙認為，華爾街可能低估了未來幾個月利率（尤其是10年期國債收益率）快速上升的風險。高收益往往不利于風險較高的高增長股票，因為相比之下，債券等更安全的資產(chǎn)對投資者更有吸引力。
斯利蒙告訴《財富》雜志，美債收益率更有可能較快地攀升，因為“經(jīng)濟比市場普遍認為的要好，我認為其增速將超過市場普遍預期，進而高出人們預計的水平。”此外，隨著美國人拿到新的紓困資金，他預計5月的10年期國債收益率將達到2%，超過許多華爾街人士的預期。
“我認為風險在于利率上升的比人們想象的要高、要快。”他說。
斯利蒙的理由是目前包括標普500指數(shù)（S&P 500）、小盤股、銅和石油在內(nèi)的大型經(jīng)濟敏感板塊的價格全面高于新冠疫情之前。“所有證據(jù)都表明，‘經(jīng)濟已經(jīng)開始運轉(zhuǎn)起來了。’唯一的例外就是利率。”
實際上，盡管近幾周美國的10年期國債收益率躍升至1.6%以上，并讓成長型投資者感到不安，但收益率仍然低于去年年初的水平。“如果[收益率]5月升至2%，經(jīng)濟增長將再次遭受重創(chuàng)，價值型投資將進一步加速。”斯利蒙認為。“這樣的輪換操作將繼續(xù)下去。”
納斯達克（Nasdaq）綜合指數(shù)近期反彈——盡管3月12日下跌，但自3月8日以來仍然上漲了5.6%，不過斯利蒙并未“把這次上漲視為加倉價值股的機會”，而是削減了科技股和成長股的倉位。
他偏愛的價值導向板塊包括金融和材料股。
盡管近期表現(xiàn)強勁，但和科技股相比，金融股的市盈率很低（根據(jù)標普全球的數(shù)據(jù)，該板塊目前市盈率約為10倍），因而對斯利蒙特別有吸引力。他說，金融股的“盈利預測調(diào)整也比一些科技股要好”。“我認為目前這是一個更讓人感興趣的領(lǐng)域。”
這并不是說投資者應(yīng)當全面退出科技板塊。斯利蒙認為，如果到10月或11月美國利率“緩慢”升至2%，成長股就應(yīng)該和整體市場一樣表現(xiàn)良好。他補充道：“這并不是說你不能把一部分資金投入這些股票，但要認識到它們的波動性非常、非常大。”
然而，長遠來看，他也在關(guān)注“質(zhì)量較高”的分紅型防御性股票——如果利率繼續(xù)攀升，這些股票可能會在未來幾年帶來誘人的機會。（斯利蒙認為將出現(xiàn)這樣的情況，因為到2021年年底，債券收益率可能達到2.5%。）
斯利蒙指出，醫(yī)療保健和必需消費品等板塊“確實已經(jīng)落后了一段時間”。雖然他的目標不是在低風險領(lǐng)域增持股票，但斯利蒙指出：“當美聯(lián)儲說‘好的，我們要加息了’，而價值型股票開始回落時，我不知道人們會不會重拾增長型個股。我覺得人們會尋找安全的投資對象。”（財富中文網(wǎng)）
譯者：梁宇
審校：夏林
In recent weeks, Wall Street has been wrestling with the question: Does the rotation trade have legs?
Andrew Slimmon, senior portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley, argues that the Street maybe be underestimating the risk of rapidly rising rates (in particular, the 10-year Treasury yield) in the next couple months. High yields tend to be bad for higher-risk, high growth stocks because they make safer investments like bonds seem more attractive to investors by comparison.
A faster increase is more likely, Slimmon tells Fortune, because "The economy is stronger than what consensus believes. I think that we're going to accelerate faster than what consensus believes, and so I think we're going to surprise to the upside." Plus, with a fresh round of stimulus checks hitting Americans' bank accounts, he's estimating the 10-year yield could hit 2% by May, faster than many projections on the Street anticipate.
"I think the risk is rates are higher, sooner than what people think," he argues.
Slimmon's reasoning is that large, economically sensitive segments of the market, including the S&P 500, small caps, copper, and oil, are all trading higher today than they were pre-pandemic. "You have all these things that are saying, 'Hey, the economy is coming on.' The one exception [is] interest rates."
Indeed, yields are still lower than they were at the start of last year, even with the 10-year Treasury yield jumping to over 1.6% in recent weeks and spooking growth investors. "If we go to 2% by May, you're going to see growth go through another bout of real pain, and you're going to see further acceleration into this value trade," Slimmon argues. "I think the rotation will continue."
Slimmon is using the recent bounce in the Nasdaq (up 5.6% since March 8, despite a March 12 selloff) to trim holdings in tech and growth stocks, instead "looking at this rally as an opportunity to increase my exposure to value,” he says.
Among his preferred value-oriented areas: financials and materials.
Despite their recent strength, financials look particularly attractive to Slimmon compared to tech due to their low price-to-earnings ratios (the sector is trading at around 10 times earnings, per S&P Global data). Financials are also posting "better earnings revisions than some of the tech stocks," he says. "I think that's a more intriguing area right now."
That's not to say investors should bail out of tech full-stop. Slimmon suggests if rates rise in a "slow grind" to 2% by October or November, growth stocks should do well alongside the overall market. It "doesn't mean you shouldn't have a portion of your money in those stocks," he adds, but "just recognize that they are very, very volatile."
From a longer-term perspective, however, he's also eyeing "higher quality" dividend-paying defensive stocks that could pose an attractive opportunity over the next couple years if rates continue to climb. (Which they will, according to Slimmon, who thinks we could end 2021 with yields at 2.5%.)
Those sectors, like health care and consumer staples, have "really lagged for a while now," notes Slimmon. Though he's not aiming to overweight stocks in the low-risk areas, "When the Fed says, 'Okay we're raising rates,' and value starts to peter out, I'm not sure it's going to be back to growth," he argues. "I think it's going to be the safety trade."
