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雜志訂閱

牛年這8只科技股值得入手

Anne Sraders
2021-02-18

本年股市大概率仍是科技公司的主場。

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即便你不是美股專家,你大概也會認(rèn)同,2020年的美股市場是屬于科技板的。

其中漲得最猛的,就是所謂的“遠(yuǎn)程辦公”概念股,這些公司炒著保持社交距離的概念,漲幅超過了標(biāo)普500指數(shù)(S&P 500)均值一倍以上。

現(xiàn)在新冠疫苗已經(jīng)來了,各路“專家”、“大師”終于可以說點(diǎn)疫情以外的事兒了。但他們也并沒有忽略科技板??萍纪顿Y理財(cái)公司ARK投資(ARK Invest)的創(chuàng)始人及首席執(zhí)行官凱西?伍德說:“世界已經(jīng)發(fā)生了永久的改變,面對疫情,一旦企業(yè)和消費(fèi)者采用了更便宜、更方便、更快捷、更有創(chuàng)造性的新技術(shù),他們就再也回不去了?!?/p>

當(dāng)然,由于當(dāng)前美股科技板的估值普遍偏高,況且美國的凈零利率很有可能將持續(xù)全年,現(xiàn)在抽身的投資者也不在少數(shù)。(標(biāo)普500科技板的預(yù)期市盈率為28倍,而該指數(shù)整體市盈率為23倍。)

有些投資者擔(dān)心,不斷上漲的股價,以及這些公司本身的快速增長,將限制科技板公司的利好。對此,Baillie Gifford公司旗下美國證券增長基金(U.S. Equity Growth Fund)的理財(cái)經(jīng)理加里?羅賓遜對《財(cái)富》雜志表示:“經(jīng)常有人說:‘這家公司的增長速度已經(jīng)到頂了,明年它的增長就會放緩?!艺J(rèn)為,這些表現(xiàn)優(yōu)異的成長型公司不太可能出現(xiàn)‘均值回歸’,因?yàn)樗鼈兊耐顿Y著眼的是巨大的市場機(jī)會,所以它們有在相當(dāng)長的時間內(nèi)持續(xù)增長的空間?!?/p>

不可否認(rèn),有些科技板公司的市值的確是高估了。對此,高盛資本管理公司(Goldman Sachs Asset Management)旗下科技機(jī)會基金(Technology Opportunities Fund)的理財(cái)經(jīng)理宋卓(音譯)表示,他已經(jīng)將自己的投資組合向一些更具有周期復(fù)蘇特性的股票調(diào)整,比如那些主要針對中小企業(yè)客戶以及支付和半導(dǎo)體等領(lǐng)域的公司。

在經(jīng)歷了極不尋常后一年后,《財(cái)富》雜志采訪了一些理財(cái)經(jīng)理,請他們談?wù)勗谑澜绱蠖鄶?shù)地區(qū)復(fù)工復(fù)產(chǎn)后,他們對哪些科技公司的股票最有信心,哪些股票最有可能加速增長。

半導(dǎo)體領(lǐng)域

半導(dǎo)體板塊去年整體表現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁,不過理財(cái)經(jīng)理們表示,半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)是有周期性的,眼下這點(diǎn)收益對未來走勢來說,還只不過是“灑灑水”。

Parnassus中盤基金(Parnassus Mid Cap Fund)的理財(cái)經(jīng)理洛里?基思表示:“我們認(rèn)為,未來的贏家,將是受到這些加速增長趨勢影響的公司?!?/p>

基思認(rèn)為,半導(dǎo)體程序控制公司KLA Corp.(股票代碼:KLAC,股價:314美元)就是一家“將受益于趨勢發(fā)展”的企業(yè)。這些趨勢指的是云計(jì)算、5G、車用半導(dǎo)體等等。基思指出:“在疫情期間,由于人們減少了開車出行,汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)也受到了影響。但隨著時間的推移,汽車市場會逐漸向電動化、混動化、插電化方向發(fā)展。另外,在安全、高級駕駛輔助功能、傳感器等方面也要大量使用半導(dǎo)體,這些都會推動顯著增長。”基恩認(rèn)為,KLA公司在市場上擁有主導(dǎo)性的份額,還擁有非常強(qiáng)勁的自由現(xiàn)金流和研發(fā)能力,能夠?yàn)榘雽?dǎo)體市場提供“關(guān)鍵任務(wù)”上的技術(shù)?,F(xiàn)在,汽車、醫(yī)療服務(wù)和云計(jì)算服務(wù)器市場上需要越來越先進(jìn)的半導(dǎo)體技術(shù),KLA必然會在這種趨勢中受益?!岸@些都需要大量測試來保證可靠性?!被颊f。另外,KLA的預(yù)期市盈率約為24倍,遠(yuǎn)低于許多大牌科技公司。

投資者要想通過投資股票,實(shí)現(xiàn)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表的“經(jīng)典”平衡,通過一系列“兼顧進(jìn)攻性和防御性特點(diǎn)”的投資策略,在“后疫情時代,不論經(jīng)濟(jì)周期和復(fù)蘇時機(jī)怎樣”,都可以取得較好的成績,則不妨考慮一下基思推薦的Synopsys(股票代碼:SNPS,股價:268美元)。這是一家半導(dǎo)體芯片的電子設(shè)計(jì)自動化軟件公司。該公司有一個重要的增長點(diǎn),就是它的用戶基礎(chǔ)正在擴(kuò)大,其用戶主要是所謂的“系統(tǒng)公司”。“也就是互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司和汽車生產(chǎn)商等?!比鹑f通博(Vontobel)的高質(zhì)量增長板塊(Quality Growth Boutique)理財(cái)經(jīng)理、研究分析師張秋(音譯)介紹道。此外,知識產(chǎn)權(quán)也是一個增長領(lǐng)域?;贾赋?,很多半導(dǎo)體公司越來越專注于更加復(fù)雜的芯片,它們已經(jīng)“外包了一部分非核心的芯片設(shè)計(jì)”。所以Synopsys的知識產(chǎn)權(quán)業(yè)務(wù)得以快速增長,并且“為連續(xù)多年的增長開辟了重要道路”。預(yù)計(jì)本財(cái)年,該公司還將繼續(xù)穩(wěn)步增長(華爾街認(rèn)為其營收將增長9%以上)。截至2020年第四季度,它已經(jīng)積壓了價值49億美元的合同,夠它消化好幾年了。張秋認(rèn)為,該公司43倍的預(yù)期市盈率“確實(shí)有點(diǎn)高了”,不過“從長期增長的角度來看,我們還是很滿意的?!?/p>

不過所有這些創(chuàng)新都是需要在實(shí)踐中經(jīng)受考驗(yàn)的。這時,是德科技(Keysight Technologies,股票代碼:KEYS,股價:147美元)的技術(shù)就有了用武之地。是德科技是一家專門提供電子和無線電信號測試測量設(shè)備的公司。瑞萬通博的理財(cái)經(jīng)理張秋表示,是德科技生產(chǎn)的是“企業(yè)不太可能在它上面吝嗇的關(guān)鍵工具”,一旦用戶熟悉了這些工具,它就會變得很有“粘性”。他表示:“5G是目前是德科技的一個重要主題,5G網(wǎng)絡(luò),以及在5G上衍生的物聯(lián)網(wǎng)、人工智能、車聯(lián)網(wǎng)技術(shù),都需要進(jìn)行測試?!毕馣LA和Synopsys一樣,張秋認(rèn)為,是德科技的工具在電動汽車的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施上,以及在充電機(jī)制和電池等各個領(lǐng)域上,都能夠發(fā)揮重要作用。“這里有很多增長杠桿?!蹦壳笆堑驴萍嫉念A(yù)期市盈率是27倍,處于一個比較合理的區(qū)間,預(yù)計(jì)2021財(cái)年,它的營收將增長11%以上。

值得關(guān)注的強(qiáng)勢增長趨勢

去年,隨著全世界在疫情中加速數(shù)字化,很多行業(yè)的應(yīng)用程序迎來了企業(yè)和消費(fèi)者的大量涌入,普及率迅速飆升,助推了這些行業(yè)的強(qiáng)勢增長。

支付領(lǐng)域就是其中之一。高盛理財(cái)經(jīng)理宋卓對《財(cái)富》雜志表示:“我們對支付領(lǐng)域感到樂觀,有幾個原因:首先是趕上了全球經(jīng)濟(jì)周期性復(fù)蘇的東風(fēng),其次是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長必然帶來大量新的支付流,再次是中國很有可能為外國支付平臺開放新的市場。”

這些P2P和B2B的支付流,甚至是加密貨幣,在疫情中都吸引了人們的關(guān)注,有的甚至被政府用來支付經(jīng)濟(jì)紓困金。宋卓說:“我們認(rèn)為,2021年,這種根本性的加速有可能繼續(xù)保持下去,在支付領(lǐng)域,不僅有周期性復(fù)蘇,你還可能看到一個超級增長周期。”

有一只股票有望從這種趨勢中持續(xù)受益,它就是支付巨頭PayPal(股票代碼:PYPL,股價:247美元)。它的用戶群正在飛速增長,分析師認(rèn)為2021年,它的營收將增長19%。ARK投資公司的首席執(zhí)行官凱西?伍德尤為青睞這只股票,理由是它在中國市場上的機(jī)會更大。PayPal在2019年年底啟動了對中國支付公司國付寶的收購公司,最近已經(jīng)獲得國付寶全部股權(quán)。PayPal與中國的發(fā)卡機(jī)構(gòu)銀聯(lián)也有合作,此外它還在持續(xù)擴(kuò)大在重要的中國市場上的存在。另外,PayPal早些時候與拉美地區(qū)的電商巨頭美客多(MercadoLibre)也達(dá)成了合作。這標(biāo)志著它“真的要向全球擴(kuò)張了”。伍德說。

支付領(lǐng)域的繁榮也惠及了杰克?多爾西的Square公司(股票代碼:SQ,股價:227美元)。該公司的Cash應(yīng)用程序允許用戶相互支付,甚至是進(jìn)行比特幣交易。這款應(yīng)用程序也成了該公司在疫情期間的一大收入來源。雖然很多小企業(yè)在封城期間受到了嚴(yán)重影響(Square的第一桶金主要來自賣收款設(shè)備),但ARK投資公司的首席執(zhí)行官伍德仍然認(rèn)為,它在后疫情時代會迎來利好。“我們知道,很多小企業(yè)是有機(jī)會重新開業(yè)的,而Square有可能成為最大的受益者之一?!彪m然它的估值很高(預(yù)期市盈率超過了200倍),但分析師預(yù)計(jì),2021年,該公司的營收將增長40%。

瑞萬通博的理財(cái)經(jīng)理張秋認(rèn)為,“不管是前疫情時代,還是后疫情時代”,所有人都認(rèn)同一點(diǎn),那就是“世界的持續(xù)數(shù)字化和‘?dāng)?shù)據(jù)爆發(fā)’的大趨勢絕對不會放緩?!庇幸恢还善焙芷鹾蠑?shù)字化轉(zhuǎn)型的主題,它就是數(shù)字化營銷軟件公司Adobe(股票代碼:ADBE,股價:457美元),旗下最出名的產(chǎn)品,就是我們熟知的Photoshop。這家公司2020年的成績十分健康,張秋認(rèn)為,它在2021年還有進(jìn)一步的增長空間(華爾街認(rèn)為,Adobe今年的營收將增長18%)。他特別指出,Adobe最近收購了Workfront,以便通過工作流自動化,更好地“將內(nèi)容與營銷相結(jié)合”。他還指出,Adobe的PDF和電子簽名業(yè)務(wù),有助于在去年“令人印象深刻的”增長基礎(chǔ)上實(shí)現(xiàn)新提升。目前Adobe股票的預(yù)期市盈率超過了40倍,比近52周以來的最高點(diǎn)低了14%,而Adobe也剛剛批準(zhǔn)了一項(xiàng)到2024年回購150億美元股票的計(jì)劃。

2020年的贏家

2021年,雖然全世界離回歸“正?!比匀蝗沃氐肋h(yuǎn),但很多投資經(jīng)理認(rèn)為,少數(shù)在疫情中受益的股票仍然存在利好因素。

Baillie Gifford公司的理財(cái)經(jīng)理羅賓遜認(rèn)為:“只要看看從線下到線上的轉(zhuǎn)型趨勢,你就會發(fā)現(xiàn),這些平臺還有大量增長空間,現(xiàn)在仍然是相對早期的階段。”Shopify(股票代碼:SHOP,股價:1174美元)就是這些平臺之一。Shopify是一個面向創(chuàng)業(yè)者的一體化電商平臺。羅賓遜指出,Shopify在疫情期間仍然保持持續(xù)創(chuàng)新,并且添加了新的產(chǎn)品,比如它可以為商家免費(fèi)創(chuàng)建賬號。ARK投資公司的首席執(zhí)行官伍德也表示:“零售商正在尋找脫離亞馬遜的辦法,要么就是在尋找一種成本更低廉的方式,參與到社交電商化的趨勢中來?!彼^社交電商化,就是讓社交媒體平臺扮演帶貨的角色。伍德認(rèn)為,Shopify“就是對這個問題的一個重要的回答”。(她特別指出了TikTok最近與Shopify的合作。)盡管Shopify目前報(bào)出了天價估值,但華爾街仍然預(yù)計(jì)它的營收將繼續(xù)健康增長(今年有望增長33%),盡管它的股價已經(jīng)從高點(diǎn)上下跌了8%左右。

作為一個逆向思維者,ARK投資公司的首席執(zhí)行官伍德并不反對有違共識的觀點(diǎn)。她仍然看好Zoom視頻通訊公司(Zoom Video Communications,股票代碼:ZM,股價:394美元)的前景。在疫情期間,這家公司已經(jīng)成了線上辦公的主要工具。

不可否認(rèn),由于該股去年暴漲了395%,現(xiàn)在它的市盈率已經(jīng)非常高了。不過伍德指出,近幾個月來,Zoom的股價已經(jīng)從高點(diǎn)“下跌了一半”。伍德認(rèn)為,這種拋售行為,可能是由于“很多人擔(dān)心一旦企業(yè)正常復(fù)工,Zoom也就沒有存在的理由了。我們完全不同意這種看法?!鼻∏∠喾?,伍德認(rèn)為,在“后疫情時代”,也會有更多人繼續(xù)遠(yuǎn)程辦公?!凹幢戕k公室里只有一個人遠(yuǎn)程辦公,那么所有人也必須都在工作內(nèi)外使用Zoom?!绷硗馕榈轮赋觯罱袌?bào)道稱,Zoom正在開發(fā)新的電子郵件和“更多微軟式的功能”,這將有助于Zoom在更多領(lǐng)域展開競爭。目前Zoom的股價較近52周的最高點(diǎn)低了31%左右,或許會有部分投資者選擇冒險一搏。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

文中的所有股價以2021年1月19日價格計(jì)算。

譯者:樸成奎

即便你不是美股專家,你大概也會認(rèn)同,2020年的美股市場是屬于科技板的。

其中漲得最猛的,就是所謂的“遠(yuǎn)程辦公”概念股,這些公司炒著保持社交距離的概念,漲幅超過了標(biāo)普500指數(shù)(S&P 500)均值一倍以上。

現(xiàn)在新冠疫苗已經(jīng)來了,各路“專家”、“大師”終于可以說點(diǎn)疫情以外的事兒了。但他們也并沒有忽略科技板??萍纪顿Y理財(cái)公司ARK投資(ARK Invest)的創(chuàng)始人及首席執(zhí)行官凱西?伍德說:“世界已經(jīng)發(fā)生了永久的改變,面對疫情,一旦企業(yè)和消費(fèi)者采用了更便宜、更方便、更快捷、更有創(chuàng)造性的新技術(shù),他們就再也回不去了。”

當(dāng)然,由于當(dāng)前美股科技板的估值普遍偏高,況且美國的凈零利率很有可能將持續(xù)全年,現(xiàn)在抽身的投資者也不在少數(shù)。(標(biāo)普500科技板的預(yù)期市盈率為28倍,而該指數(shù)整體市盈率為23倍。)

有些投資者擔(dān)心,不斷上漲的股價,以及這些公司本身的快速增長,將限制科技板公司的利好。對此,Baillie Gifford公司旗下美國證券增長基金(U.S. Equity Growth Fund)的理財(cái)經(jīng)理加里?羅賓遜對《財(cái)富》雜志表示:“經(jīng)常有人說:‘這家公司的增長速度已經(jīng)到頂了,明年它的增長就會放緩。’但我認(rèn)為,這些表現(xiàn)優(yōu)異的成長型公司不太可能出現(xiàn)‘均值回歸’,因?yàn)樗鼈兊耐顿Y著眼的是巨大的市場機(jī)會,所以它們有在相當(dāng)長的時間內(nèi)持續(xù)增長的空間。”

不可否認(rèn),有些科技板公司的市值的確是高估了。對此,高盛資本管理公司(Goldman Sachs Asset Management)旗下科技機(jī)會基金(Technology Opportunities Fund)的理財(cái)經(jīng)理宋卓(音譯)表示,他已經(jīng)將自己的投資組合向一些更具有周期復(fù)蘇特性的股票調(diào)整,比如那些主要針對中小企業(yè)客戶以及支付和半導(dǎo)體等領(lǐng)域的公司。

在經(jīng)歷了極不尋常后一年后,《財(cái)富》雜志采訪了一些理財(cái)經(jīng)理,請他們談?wù)勗谑澜绱蠖鄶?shù)地區(qū)復(fù)工復(fù)產(chǎn)后,他們對哪些科技公司的股票最有信心,哪些股票最有可能加速增長。

半導(dǎo)體領(lǐng)域

半導(dǎo)體板塊去年整體表現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁,不過理財(cái)經(jīng)理們表示,半導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)是有周期性的,眼下這點(diǎn)收益對未來走勢來說,還只不過是“灑灑水”。

Parnassus中盤基金(Parnassus Mid Cap Fund)的理財(cái)經(jīng)理洛里?基思表示:“我們認(rèn)為,未來的贏家,將是受到這些加速增長趨勢影響的公司?!?/p>

基思認(rèn)為,半導(dǎo)體程序控制公司KLA Corp.(股票代碼:KLAC,股價:314美元)就是一家“將受益于趨勢發(fā)展”的企業(yè)。這些趨勢指的是云計(jì)算、5G、車用半導(dǎo)體等等?;贾赋觯骸霸谝咔槠陂g,由于人們減少了開車出行,汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)也受到了影響。但隨著時間的推移,汽車市場會逐漸向電動化、混動化、插電化方向發(fā)展。另外,在安全、高級駕駛輔助功能、傳感器等方面也要大量使用半導(dǎo)體,這些都會推動顯著增長?!被髡J(rèn)為,KLA公司在市場上擁有主導(dǎo)性的份額,還擁有非常強(qiáng)勁的自由現(xiàn)金流和研發(fā)能力,能夠?yàn)榘雽?dǎo)體市場提供“關(guān)鍵任務(wù)”上的技術(shù)。現(xiàn)在,汽車、醫(yī)療服務(wù)和云計(jì)算服務(wù)器市場上需要越來越先進(jìn)的半導(dǎo)體技術(shù),KLA必然會在這種趨勢中受益。“而這些都需要大量測試來保證可靠性?!被颊f。另外,KLA的預(yù)期市盈率約為24倍,遠(yuǎn)低于許多大牌科技公司。

投資者要想通過投資股票,實(shí)現(xiàn)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表的“經(jīng)典”平衡,通過一系列“兼顧進(jìn)攻性和防御性特點(diǎn)”的投資策略,在“后疫情時代,不論經(jīng)濟(jì)周期和復(fù)蘇時機(jī)怎樣”,都可以取得較好的成績,則不妨考慮一下基思推薦的Synopsys(股票代碼:SNPS,股價:268美元)。這是一家半導(dǎo)體芯片的電子設(shè)計(jì)自動化軟件公司。該公司有一個重要的增長點(diǎn),就是它的用戶基礎(chǔ)正在擴(kuò)大,其用戶主要是所謂的“系統(tǒng)公司”。“也就是互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司和汽車生產(chǎn)商等?!比鹑f通博(Vontobel)的高質(zhì)量增長板塊(Quality Growth Boutique)理財(cái)經(jīng)理、研究分析師張秋(音譯)介紹道。此外,知識產(chǎn)權(quán)也是一個增長領(lǐng)域?;贾赋觯芏喟雽?dǎo)體公司越來越專注于更加復(fù)雜的芯片,它們已經(jīng)“外包了一部分非核心的芯片設(shè)計(jì)”。所以Synopsys的知識產(chǎn)權(quán)業(yè)務(wù)得以快速增長,并且“為連續(xù)多年的增長開辟了重要道路”。預(yù)計(jì)本財(cái)年,該公司還將繼續(xù)穩(wěn)步增長(華爾街認(rèn)為其營收將增長9%以上)。截至2020年第四季度,它已經(jīng)積壓了價值49億美元的合同,夠它消化好幾年了。張秋認(rèn)為,該公司43倍的預(yù)期市盈率“確實(shí)有點(diǎn)高了”,不過“從長期增長的角度來看,我們還是很滿意的。”

不過所有這些創(chuàng)新都是需要在實(shí)踐中經(jīng)受考驗(yàn)的。這時,是德科技(Keysight Technologies,股票代碼:KEYS,股價:147美元)的技術(shù)就有了用武之地。是德科技是一家專門提供電子和無線電信號測試測量設(shè)備的公司。瑞萬通博的理財(cái)經(jīng)理張秋表示,是德科技生產(chǎn)的是“企業(yè)不太可能在它上面吝嗇的關(guān)鍵工具”,一旦用戶熟悉了這些工具,它就會變得很有“粘性”。他表示:“5G是目前是德科技的一個重要主題,5G網(wǎng)絡(luò),以及在5G上衍生的物聯(lián)網(wǎng)、人工智能、車聯(lián)網(wǎng)技術(shù),都需要進(jìn)行測試?!毕馣LA和Synopsys一樣,張秋認(rèn)為,是德科技的工具在電動汽車的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施上,以及在充電機(jī)制和電池等各個領(lǐng)域上,都能夠發(fā)揮重要作用?!斑@里有很多增長杠桿?!蹦壳笆堑驴萍嫉念A(yù)期市盈率是27倍,處于一個比較合理的區(qū)間,預(yù)計(jì)2021財(cái)年,它的營收將增長11%以上。

值得關(guān)注的強(qiáng)勢增長趨勢

去年,隨著全世界在疫情中加速數(shù)字化,很多行業(yè)的應(yīng)用程序迎來了企業(yè)和消費(fèi)者的大量涌入,普及率迅速飆升,助推了這些行業(yè)的強(qiáng)勢增長。

支付領(lǐng)域就是其中之一。高盛理財(cái)經(jīng)理宋卓對《財(cái)富》雜志表示:“我們對支付領(lǐng)域感到樂觀,有幾個原因:首先是趕上了全球經(jīng)濟(jì)周期性復(fù)蘇的東風(fēng),其次是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長必然帶來大量新的支付流,再次是中國很有可能為外國支付平臺開放新的市場?!?/p>

這些P2P和B2B的支付流,甚至是加密貨幣,在疫情中都吸引了人們的關(guān)注,有的甚至被政府用來支付經(jīng)濟(jì)紓困金。宋卓說:“我們認(rèn)為,2021年,這種根本性的加速有可能繼續(xù)保持下去,在支付領(lǐng)域,不僅有周期性復(fù)蘇,你還可能看到一個超級增長周期?!?/p>

有一只股票有望從這種趨勢中持續(xù)受益,它就是支付巨頭PayPal(股票代碼:PYPL,股價:247美元)。它的用戶群正在飛速增長,分析師認(rèn)為2021年,它的營收將增長19%。ARK投資公司的首席執(zhí)行官凱西?伍德尤為青睞這只股票,理由是它在中國市場上的機(jī)會更大。PayPal在2019年年底啟動了對中國支付公司國付寶的收購公司,最近已經(jīng)獲得國付寶全部股權(quán)。PayPal與中國的發(fā)卡機(jī)構(gòu)銀聯(lián)也有合作,此外它還在持續(xù)擴(kuò)大在重要的中國市場上的存在。另外,PayPal早些時候與拉美地區(qū)的電商巨頭美客多(MercadoLibre)也達(dá)成了合作。這標(biāo)志著它“真的要向全球擴(kuò)張了”。伍德說。

支付領(lǐng)域的繁榮也惠及了杰克?多爾西的Square公司(股票代碼:SQ,股價:227美元)。該公司的Cash應(yīng)用程序允許用戶相互支付,甚至是進(jìn)行比特幣交易。這款應(yīng)用程序也成了該公司在疫情期間的一大收入來源。雖然很多小企業(yè)在封城期間受到了嚴(yán)重影響(Square的第一桶金主要來自賣收款設(shè)備),但ARK投資公司的首席執(zhí)行官伍德仍然認(rèn)為,它在后疫情時代會迎來利好?!拔覀冎?,很多小企業(yè)是有機(jī)會重新開業(yè)的,而Square有可能成為最大的受益者之一?!彪m然它的估值很高(預(yù)期市盈率超過了200倍),但分析師預(yù)計(jì),2021年,該公司的營收將增長40%。

瑞萬通博的理財(cái)經(jīng)理張秋認(rèn)為,“不管是前疫情時代,還是后疫情時代”,所有人都認(rèn)同一點(diǎn),那就是“世界的持續(xù)數(shù)字化和‘?dāng)?shù)據(jù)爆發(fā)’的大趨勢絕對不會放緩。”有一只股票很契合數(shù)字化轉(zhuǎn)型的主題,它就是數(shù)字化營銷軟件公司Adobe(股票代碼:ADBE,股價:457美元),旗下最出名的產(chǎn)品,就是我們熟知的Photoshop。這家公司2020年的成績十分健康,張秋認(rèn)為,它在2021年還有進(jìn)一步的增長空間(華爾街認(rèn)為,Adobe今年的營收將增長18%)。他特別指出,Adobe最近收購了Workfront,以便通過工作流自動化,更好地“將內(nèi)容與營銷相結(jié)合”。他還指出,Adobe的PDF和電子簽名業(yè)務(wù),有助于在去年“令人印象深刻的”增長基礎(chǔ)上實(shí)現(xiàn)新提升。目前Adobe股票的預(yù)期市盈率超過了40倍,比近52周以來的最高點(diǎn)低了14%,而Adobe也剛剛批準(zhǔn)了一項(xiàng)到2024年回購150億美元股票的計(jì)劃。

2020年的贏家

2021年,雖然全世界離回歸“正?!比匀蝗沃氐肋h(yuǎn),但很多投資經(jīng)理認(rèn)為,少數(shù)在疫情中受益的股票仍然存在利好因素。

Baillie Gifford公司的理財(cái)經(jīng)理羅賓遜認(rèn)為:“只要看看從線下到線上的轉(zhuǎn)型趨勢,你就會發(fā)現(xiàn),這些平臺還有大量增長空間,現(xiàn)在仍然是相對早期的階段?!盨hopify(股票代碼:SHOP,股價:1174美元)就是這些平臺之一。Shopify是一個面向創(chuàng)業(yè)者的一體化電商平臺。羅賓遜指出,Shopify在疫情期間仍然保持持續(xù)創(chuàng)新,并且添加了新的產(chǎn)品,比如它可以為商家免費(fèi)創(chuàng)建賬號。ARK投資公司的首席執(zhí)行官伍德也表示:“零售商正在尋找脫離亞馬遜的辦法,要么就是在尋找一種成本更低廉的方式,參與到社交電商化的趨勢中來?!彼^社交電商化,就是讓社交媒體平臺扮演帶貨的角色。伍德認(rèn)為,Shopify“就是對這個問題的一個重要的回答”。(她特別指出了TikTok最近與Shopify的合作。)盡管Shopify目前報(bào)出了天價估值,但華爾街仍然預(yù)計(jì)它的營收將繼續(xù)健康增長(今年有望增長33%),盡管它的股價已經(jīng)從高點(diǎn)上下跌了8%左右。

作為一個逆向思維者,ARK投資公司的首席執(zhí)行官伍德并不反對有違共識的觀點(diǎn)。她仍然看好Zoom視頻通訊公司(Zoom Video Communications,股票代碼:ZM,股價:394美元)的前景。在疫情期間,這家公司已經(jīng)成了線上辦公的主要工具。

不可否認(rèn),由于該股去年暴漲了395%,現(xiàn)在它的市盈率已經(jīng)非常高了。不過伍德指出,近幾個月來,Zoom的股價已經(jīng)從高點(diǎn)“下跌了一半”。伍德認(rèn)為,這種拋售行為,可能是由于“很多人擔(dān)心一旦企業(yè)正常復(fù)工,Zoom也就沒有存在的理由了。我們完全不同意這種看法?!鼻∏∠喾?,伍德認(rèn)為,在“后疫情時代”,也會有更多人繼續(xù)遠(yuǎn)程辦公。“即便辦公室里只有一個人遠(yuǎn)程辦公,那么所有人也必須都在工作內(nèi)外使用Zoom。”另外伍德指出,最近有報(bào)道稱,Zoom正在開發(fā)新的電子郵件和“更多微軟式的功能”,這將有助于Zoom在更多領(lǐng)域展開競爭。目前Zoom的股價較近52周的最高點(diǎn)低了31%左右,或許會有部分投資者選擇冒險一搏。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

文中的所有股價以2021年1月19日價格計(jì)算。

譯者:樸成奎

Even the casual market observer could recognize that 2020 was all about the tech trade.

So-called work-from-home stocks, those enabling consumers and businesses to operate socially distanced, skyrocketed last year—with the tech sector’s rally outpacing the overall S&P 500 by more than double.

But now that the vaccine has arrived on the scene, market prognosticators can finally see beyond the pandemic. And they’re not shunning the tech trade. “The world has changed for good,” says Cathie Wood, the founder and CEO of tech-focused investment manager ARK Invest. “When businesses and consumers adopt new technologies that are cheaper, more convenient, faster, more creative in their response, there’s no turning back.”

Yet investors may wish to be turning back from the high valuations that have increasingly accompanied names in the tech sector, boosted by near-zero interest rates that are likely to stick through 2021. (The S&P 500 tech sector's forward P/E, for example, is at 28 times earnings, versus 23 for the index at large.)

But for those investors concerned that rising share prices and rapid growth will inherently limit the upside, Gary Robinson, a portfolio manager at asset manager Baillie Gifford’s U.S. Equity Growth Fund, offers a caveat: “There’s often the temptation to say, ‘This is the fastest this company will ever grow, and next year it will grow slower,’” he tells Fortune. “I think the exceptional growth companies are less likely to ‘mean revert’ because…they’re investing in huge market opportunities, and so they’ve got headroom to grow unimpeded for very long periods of time.”

To be sure, there are pockets in the tech space that have gotten ahead of themselves in terms of valuations, investors say. That’s why those like Sung Cho, a portfolio manager of the Technology Opportunities Fund at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, says he’s been shifting its portfolio toward more cyclical-recovery stocks like those levered to small and medium-size businesses, payments, and semiconductors.

Coming off such a big year, Fortune asked portfolio managers which tech names they have faith can do well even after much of the world emerges from lockdown—the kinds of names tethered to accelerating trends that aren’t likely to stall out.

The semiconductor play

Semiconductor stocks overall had a great run last year, but according to money managers, companies in the space are only just scratching the surface of what’s to come for the cyclical sector.

“Where we’re seeing the winners going forward will be those companies that are exposed to these faster growth trends,” says Lori Keith, who manages the Parnassus Mid Cap Fund.

As a semiconductor process control company, Keith thinks KLA Corp. (KLAC, $314) is “poised to benefit as we see these trends play out,” including the accelerating shift to cloud, 5G, and the use of semiconductors in the automotive sector. “Automotive unit vehicles have been [hit] during the pandemic [as] people weren’t doing as much driving,” notes Keith. “But when you look at the shift over time as we move toward more [electric vehicles], hybrids, plug-ins…there’s a significant amount of semiconductor content in the areas of things like safety and advanced driver assist features, sensors—all of that is going to drive significant growth.” KLA Corp., which Keith notes has dominant market share and very strong free cash flow and R&D, provides “mission critical” technology for semiconductors, and should only benefit from the increasing complexity of chips going into autos, medical devices, and cloud data servers. “Those all require very significant amounts of testing to make sure [of] the reliability,” says Keith, which should boost KLA Corp.’s business. Plus, the stock trades at roughly 24 times forward earnings—a far less expensive price tag than many of its high-flying tech peers.

For investors searching for a name with a “pristine” balance sheet and a mix of “defensive and offensive characteristics” that should outperform “regardless of the economic cycle and the timing of the economic recovery post-COVID,” portfolio managers like Parnassus’s Keith favor Synopsys (SNPS, $268), an electronic design automation software company used by semiconductors to design chips. One big growth lever going forward is the company’s broadening user base into what Synopsys calls systems companies: “It’s the Internet companies; it’s the auto companies,” notes Chul Chang, a portfolio manager and research analyst for Vontobel’s Quality Growth Boutique. Another area that’s seeing a boost: intellectual property. As many semiconductor companies increasingly focus on more complex chips, they have started to “outsource a portion of their noncore chip design,” notes Keith. That has helped Synopsys “grow their IP business at a rapid clip,” and provides a “significant runway for multiyear growth,” she suggests. The company is expected to see steady growth this fiscal year (the Street estimates revenues will increase over 9%), and it is armed with a $4.9 billion backlog of multiyear contracts as of the final quarter of 2020. Trading at around 43 times forward earnings, its valuation is “a little punchy,” says Chang, “but from a long-term growth perspective we’re pretty comfortable.”

But all those innovations need to be tested along the way. That’s where Keysight Technologies (KEYS, $147), a testing and measurement equipment provider for electrical and radio signals, comes in. Keysight makes “critical tools that companies are unlikely to skimp on” and that become “sticky” once users get accustomed to them, says Vontobel’s Chang. He notes the “big theme with Keysight currently is 5G—the testing needed around 5G, but also what 5G is going to be doing for [the Internet of Things], for A.I., for the auto sector.” Like KLA Corp. and Synopsys, Chang argues Keysight’s tools will be important in building up the infrastructure for electric vehicles and testing everything from the charging mechanisms to the batteries. “There’s a lot of growth levers here,” Chang says. The stock currently trades at a reasonable 27 times forward earnings, with revenues expected to grow over 11% in fiscal 2021.

Turbocharged trends

Plenty of industries have been turbocharged last year, with their applications and adoption skyrocketing as businesses and consumers flocked to their services in an increasingly digital world.

Among such areas seeing growth is the payments space. “We’re bullish [on] the payments sector for several reasons: In addition to cyclical tailwinds from an improving global economy, the growth is going to be supplemented by lots of new payment flows and the potential for China to open up as a new market for foreign payment players,” Goldman’s Cho tells Fortune.

Those payment flows, like peer-to-peer, business-to-business, and even cryptocurrency, have gained traction during the crisis—even being utilized by the government to send stimulus payments. In 2021 “we think there’s a fundamental acceleration that’s likely to be sustained,” Cho says. “You can really see a supergrowth cycle on top of the cyclical recovery for the payments sector.”

One stock poised to continue benefiting from such trends is payments behemoth PayPal (PYPL, $247). The company is growing its user base by leaps and bounds, and analysts expect revenues to increase 19% in 2021. But ARK Invest’s Wood particularly likes the name for its growing China exposure: PayPal recently obtained full ownership of Chinese payments company GoPay, which it first acquired in late 2019, continuing to expand its reach in the key Chinese market in addition to its partnership with Chinese card issuer UnionPay. And given the firm’s earlier partnership with MercadoLibre in Latin America, PayPal is “really going to scale globally,” says Wood.

The boom in the payments space also benefits Jack Dorsey’s Square (SQ, $227), whose Cash App business (which allows users to send money and even trade Bitcoin) has been a big revenue-driver during the pandemic. But with many small businesses (Square’s original bread and butter through their point-of-sale devices) having suffered amid shutdowns, ARK’s Wood sees some post-pandemic upside. “We know that a lot of small businesses are going to have the opportunity to get back to work, and we think Square could be one of the biggest beneficiaries of that.” Though it trades quite expensively (with an over 200 forward P/E), analysts expect the firm to grow revenues by 40% in 2021.

One area Vontobel’s Chang feels “everyone can agree [on], whether it be pre-COVID, post-COVID,” is that the “continued digitization of the world and data proliferation is definitely not slowing.” One stock “smack in the middle” of that digital transformation theme is Adobe (ADBE, $457). The digital marketing software company, known for key products like Photoshop, had a healthy 2020, but Chang believes there’s plenty of room for further growth (the Street estimates revenues will increase 18% this year). In particular he points to Adobe’s recent acquisition of Workfront, to better “marry the content and the marketing a little bit” through workflow automation, and he notes the firm’s PDF and e-signing business should be able to build on the “impressive” growth it saw last year. The stock trades over 40 times forward earnings, still off 14% from its 52-week high, while Adobe also just authorized a $15 billion share buyback plan through 2024.

The 2020 winners

Even as the world is in the midst of its long trek back to “normal” in 2021, portfolio managers still see upside in a select few beneficiaries of the pandemic.

According to Baillie Gifford’s Robinson, “When you look at where we’re at in terms of the shift online, there’s still a tremendous amount of growth ahead for these platforms; it’s still relatively early,” he argues. Those platforms include Shopify (SHOP, $1,174), the all-in-one e-commerce platform for entrepreneurs. Robinson notes Shopify has continued to innovate and add new products throughout the pandemic, like its fee-free business account for merchants. What’s more, ARK Invest’s Wood believes “retailers are looking for a way to move away from Amazon, or they’re looking for a much less expensive way to participate in the social commerce movement,” where social media platforms play a role in selling products. She thinks Shopify “is an important answer to that.” (She points to TikTok’s recent partnership with Shopify.) Though it’s trading at sky-high levels, the Street expects Shopify to still grow revenues at a healthy clip (33% this year), while the stock is off roughly 8% from its highs.

Ever the contrarian, ARK Invest’s Wood is not one to shy away from a counter-consensus call. She still sees upside for Zoom Video Communications (ZM, $394), the videoconferencing company that has become a workplace staple during the pandemic.

There’s no denying the stock is trading at pricey multiples after its over 395% trek higher in 2020. But Wood notes in recent months Zoom’s share price has been “cut in half” from its highs. That selloff, argues Wood, may be because “many people are worried that once we go back to work, Zoom’s raison d’être will disappear. We disagree entirely with that,” she says. Instead Wood believes more people will continue working remotely post-pandemic: “Even if one person in an office is working remotely, then everyone has to be enabled with Zoom in and outside of work,” she adds. Plus, Wood points to recent reports that the company is developing new email and “more Microsoft-type functions” that could help Zoom compete in more areas. Trading around 31% below its 52-week high, investors may be tempted to take a leap of faith.

All stock prices calculated as of Jan. 19, 2021.

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