特斯拉還能再漲？
Anne Sraders
2020-11-24
按金融市場的樂觀預(yù)測，特斯拉新一輪漲勢不過剛剛開始。
特斯拉股價在今年一路狂飆，増幅高達(dá)490%，加之近期終于在眾望所歸下被納入標(biāo)普500指數(shù)，不少分析師認(rèn)為，之后的特斯拉必將吸引大量的機(jī)構(gòu)投資者。
韋德布什證券（Wedbush）股票研究所常務(wù)董事兼分析師丹·艾維斯也對特斯拉的漲勢看好，他在本周日把特斯拉的目標(biāo)股價從500美元上調(diào)至560美元，并將其“牛市預(yù)期”從800美元升至1000美元。換言之，艾維斯認(rèn)為特斯拉股價還能較目前水平高出100%。
“市場對于電動車的需求正在逐年增長，尤其是在中國?！卑S斯向《財(cái)富》強(qiáng)調(diào)。他指出，目前電動車只占全球汽車銷量中的3%，但到2025年，該數(shù)字可能會翻為10%。“特斯拉顯然會拔得頭籌，我們預(yù)測特斯拉到2022年的市場占比會由現(xiàn)在的15%增高至40%?！?/p>
艾維斯表示，這種增長性需求會惠及到所有的電動汽車制造商，而特斯拉因其先發(fā)優(yōu)勢，會在未來幾年“尤其利好”。他把近幾年特斯拉Model3在中國及歐洲地區(qū)的銷量增長描述為“特氟龍效應(yīng)”，“隨著電動車在軟件方面不斷升級完備，特斯拉會于2021和2022年在中國大受歡迎，而其位于上海的超級工廠也是它巨大的競爭優(yōu)勢?！卑S斯寫道。
拜登的當(dāng)選對于電動車投資者而言更是一個潛在的樂觀局面。艾維斯認(rèn)為，拜登的“環(huán)境友好型”政策將會進(jìn)一步提高新能源汽車企業(yè)的聲望，同時也會為購買電動車的消費(fèi)者提供激勵措施。歐洲方面亦是如此，整個歐洲高度重視碳排放，嚴(yán)格的監(jiān)管背后也就意味著電動車行業(yè)的繁榮。同樣地，特斯拉也在柏林建了工廠，明年1月將會雇傭7000余名員工。
然而購買特斯拉股份對于投資者而言依然存在相當(dāng)大的風(fēng)險，首當(dāng)其沖的就是特斯拉的“收益質(zhì)量問題”（該專有名詞由晨星MorningStar的戴維·惠斯頓提出）。
根據(jù)美國相關(guān)地區(qū)的環(huán)保規(guī)定，汽車制造商必須按其市場份額出售相應(yīng)地零排放汽車或ZEV，如果汽車制造商沒有銷售足夠數(shù)量的無污染汽車，則必須通過購買競爭對手的“碳信用額度”來彌補(bǔ)差額。一直以來，特斯拉的收益很大程度上都依賴于向其他公司出售自己的碳信用額度，換言之，特斯拉的收益質(zhì)量存在問題，并非實(shí)打?qū)嵉貋碜云囦N售。
雖然特斯拉第三季度的自由現(xiàn)金流較上年有所增長，但基本都是得益于“碳信用額度”的售賣行為。于此同時，晨星的惠斯頓還指出了特斯拉的定價問題，他認(rèn)為特斯拉的定價過高，不能滿足大眾的需求。
當(dāng)然，更高的估值也就意味著更大的壓力?！疤厮估某删捅仨氉咴谑袌銎诖?，目前特斯拉所要面對的是市場前所未有的積極預(yù)期以及來自四面八方的競爭對手，因此，無論是在生產(chǎn)端還是需求端，只要出現(xiàn)任何疏漏，特斯拉的股價就會遭受負(fù)面影響?！卑S斯補(bǔ)充道。
就算特斯拉的估值正在水漲船高，但艾維斯堅(jiān)信電動車領(lǐng)域是一片潛力巨大的藍(lán)海?！拔磥韼啄晡覀儠⑷腚妱榆囆枨蟮狞S金期，這就是為什么我相信特斯拉還能再漲。”（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）
編譯:陳怡軒
按金融市場的樂觀預(yù)測，特斯拉新一輪漲勢不過剛剛開始。
特斯拉股價在今年一路狂飆，増幅高達(dá)490%，加之近期終于在眾望所歸下被納入標(biāo)普500指數(shù)，不少分析師認(rèn)為，之后的特斯拉必將吸引大量的機(jī)構(gòu)投資者。
韋德布什證券（Wedbush）股票研究所常務(wù)董事兼分析師丹·艾維斯也對特斯拉的漲勢看好，他在本周日把特斯拉的目標(biāo)股價從500美元上調(diào)至560美元，并將其“牛市預(yù)期”從800美元升至1000美元。換言之，艾維斯認(rèn)為特斯拉股價還能較目前水平高出100%。
“市場對于電動車的需求正在逐年增長，尤其是在中國?！卑S斯向《財(cái)富》強(qiáng)調(diào)。他指出，目前電動車只占全球汽車銷量中的3%，但到2025年，該數(shù)字可能會翻為10%。“特斯拉顯然會拔得頭籌，我們預(yù)測特斯拉到2022年的市場占比會由現(xiàn)在的15%增高至40%?！?/p>
艾維斯表示，這種增長性需求會惠及到所有的電動汽車制造商，而特斯拉因其先發(fā)優(yōu)勢，會在未來幾年“尤其利好”。他把近幾年特斯拉Model3在中國及歐洲地區(qū)的銷量增長描述為“特氟龍效應(yīng)”，“隨著電動車在軟件方面不斷升級完備，特斯拉會于2021和2022年在中國大受歡迎，而其位于上海的超級工廠也是它巨大的競爭優(yōu)勢?！卑S斯寫道。
拜登的當(dāng)選對于電動車投資者而言更是一個潛在的樂觀局面。艾維斯認(rèn)為，拜登的“環(huán)境友好型”政策將會進(jìn)一步提高新能源汽車企業(yè)的聲望，同時也會為購買電動車的消費(fèi)者提供激勵措施。歐洲方面亦是如此，整個歐洲高度重視碳排放，嚴(yán)格的監(jiān)管背后也就意味著電動車行業(yè)的繁榮。同樣地，特斯拉也在柏林建了工廠，明年1月將會雇傭7000余名員工。
然而購買特斯拉股份對于投資者而言依然存在相當(dāng)大的風(fēng)險，首當(dāng)其沖的就是特斯拉的“收益質(zhì)量問題”（該專有名詞由晨星MorningStar的戴維·惠斯頓提出）。
根據(jù)美國相關(guān)地區(qū)的環(huán)保規(guī)定，汽車制造商必須按其市場份額出售相應(yīng)地零排放汽車或ZEV，如果汽車制造商沒有銷售足夠數(shù)量的無污染汽車，則必須通過購買競爭對手的“碳信用額度”來彌補(bǔ)差額。一直以來，特斯拉的收益很大程度上都依賴于向其他公司出售自己的碳信用額度，換言之，特斯拉的收益質(zhì)量存在問題，并非實(shí)打?qū)嵉貋碜云囦N售。
雖然特斯拉第三季度的自由現(xiàn)金流較上年有所增長，但基本都是得益于“碳信用額度”的售賣行為。于此同時，晨星的惠斯頓還指出了特斯拉的定價問題，他認(rèn)為特斯拉的定價過高，不能滿足大眾的需求。
當(dāng)然，更高的估值也就意味著更大的壓力?！疤厮估某删捅仨氉咴谑袌銎诖埃壳疤厮估鎸Φ氖鞘袌銮八从械姆e極預(yù)期以及來自四面八方的競爭對手，因此，無論是在生產(chǎn)端還是需求端，只要出現(xiàn)任何疏漏，特斯拉的股價就會遭受負(fù)面影響?！卑S斯補(bǔ)充道。
就算特斯拉的估值正在水漲船高，但艾維斯堅(jiān)信電動車領(lǐng)域是一片潛力巨大的藍(lán)海。“未來幾年我們會將入電動車需求的黃金期，這就是為什么我相信特斯拉還能再漲?！保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng)）
編譯:陳怡軒
According to some bullish voices on the Street, Tesla is only just getting started.
The stock has seen a torrid run so far in 2020, up nearly 490% this year and recently popping on the news of its long-awaited inclusion in the S&P 500 index—a move that, according to some analysts, now legitimizes the company in the eyes of institutional investors.
Yet bullish Dan Ives, managing director of equity research and an analyst at Wedbush Securities, is willing to bet the stock can go even higher. In fact, Ives raised his price target for Tesla on Sunday from $500 to $560, and upped his "bull case" from $800 to $1,000, which would represent an over 100% pop from the stock's current levels.
One reason? Electric vehicle demand "is really starting to inflect, especially in China," Ives tells Fortune. He notes globally 3% of auto sales are EV, and "We think that now has potential to be 10% by 2025. With Tesla being the clear leader, we believe China could represent 40% of sales by 2022, up from 15% today.”
Growing demand in China is a "rising tide [that's] going to lift all boats" for EV makers, says Wedbush's Ives, but he argues "this demand dynamic will disproportionately benefit" Tesla over the next few years, he wrote in a note Sunday. Specifically Ives likes what he calls Tesla's "Teflon-like" demand for its Model 3 vehicles in Europe and China, "while software driven upgrades (FSD, etc) have gone right to the bottom line," he writes. And its China market could see "eye popping demand into 2021 and 2022 across the board with Tesla's flagship Giga 3 footprint a major competitive advantage," he argues.
Stateside, Ives also thinks President-elect Joe Biden's victory could be a "potential bullish scenario" for EV investors because he expects "a more environmental-friendly platform, which could further boost EV credits as well as incentives for buying EV," he tells Fortune. And the same goes for Europe, where there's a heightened focus on reducing the carbon footprint and a regulatory push toward electric vehicles, notes Ives (and where the company is building out its Berlin factory).
Yet the Elon Musk-led company certainly has many risk factors for investors, one being its continued dependence on sales of regulatory emissions credits to other companies—creating what Morningstar's David Whiston recently called a "quality of earnings issue." In Tesla's third quarter, free cash flow grew from the previous year, but "got help" from emission credit sales, Morningstar's Whiston remarked in a recent note. Meanwhile Whiston points out another problem: "Tesla's product plans for now do not mean an electric vehicle for every consumer who wants one, because the prices are too high."
Indeed, Ives acknowledges that with Tesla's valuation at such heady levels, "They need to continue to execute ahead of the Street, there’s higher expectations, there’s competition coming from all angles, so any hiccups in either production or demand would be viewed as a clear negative for the stock," he says.
Notwithstanding Tesla's increasingly lofty valuation, Ives firmly believes EV demand will only ratchet up from here: "We’re in for a golden age of demand over the coming years, which is why I believe Tesla continues to get rerated going forward.”
