摩根大通全球市場戰(zhàn)略小組的一組分析師稱贊千禧一代中比特幣的崛起已經(jīng)有取代黃金之勢,而且認(rèn)為如果當(dāng)前趨勢持續(xù),比特幣的價格可以“翻倍或漲至三倍”。
該預(yù)測在10月23日的一份研究簡報中發(fā)表,由于摩根大通曾經(jīng)非常質(zhì)疑比特幣,因此這一轉(zhuǎn)變相當(dāng)引人注意。2017年,該公司的首席執(zhí)行官杰米·戴蒙稱比特幣為“欺詐”,而且表示如果手下有人交易比特幣就解雇,因?yàn)椤疤薮馈薄?/p>
摩根大通之所以突然看多,主要因?yàn)樽罱Ц豆綪ayPal決定向客戶提供比特幣,Square也將價值5000萬美元的比特幣納入資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表。不過,摩根大通轉(zhuǎn)換立場的另一主要因素是越來越多年輕一代比起黃金更喜歡比特幣。
“年長人群更喜歡黃金,而年輕人更喜歡把比特幣當(dāng)作‘替代’貨幣。”研究簡報說。
分析師還觀察到,如果該趨勢持續(xù),從長期來看黃金地位可能面臨挑戰(zhàn),比特幣價格也會受到重要影響。
“哪怕比特幣作為‘替代’貨幣長期內(nèi)逐步擠掉黃金,價格與現(xiàn)在相比也能夠相比翻倍或漲到三倍。”該報告指出。
比特幣現(xiàn)價在1.3萬美元左右,遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于2017年末加密泡沫時期的近2萬美元?dú)v史高點(diǎn),之后一年比特幣跌至3400美元左右。不過,目前比特幣價格上漲趨勢較為穩(wěn)健,突破1萬美元大關(guān)后史無前例地連續(xù)三個月持續(xù)上漲。
千禧一代熱愛比特幣已經(jīng)持續(xù)了一段時間。去年年底,嘉信理財(Charles Schwab)的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),與Netflix和迪士尼(Disney)等知名公司相比,主要經(jīng)營比特幣托管的Grayscale推出的比特幣基金GBTC份額在年輕人中更受歡迎。與此同時,Grayscale還通過全美電視宣傳活動“拋棄黃金”推動了比特幣熱潮。
然而,如果按照總投資額比例來看,黃金比起比特幣仍然多出十倍多。正如摩根大通指出的,黃金與比特幣ETF價值大致相等,但黃金總價值達(dá)2.6萬億美元(比特幣則為2400億美元),因?yàn)辄S金主要持有方式為金條和硬幣。
不過摩根大通似乎也保持謹(jǐn)慎,表示“短期來看,比特幣有超買跡象,而且容易受到獲利回吐行為影響。”但分析師們也補(bǔ)充說,由于比特幣有支付功能,與黃金相比長期發(fā)展前景可能進(jìn)一步提升。(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:馮豐
審校:夏林
摩根大通全球市場戰(zhàn)略小組的一組分析師稱贊千禧一代中比特幣的崛起已經(jīng)有取代黃金之勢,而且認(rèn)為如果當(dāng)前趨勢持續(xù),比特幣的價格可以“翻倍或漲至三倍”。
該預(yù)測在10月23日的一份研究簡報中發(fā)表,由于摩根大通曾經(jīng)非常質(zhì)疑比特幣,因此這一轉(zhuǎn)變相當(dāng)引人注意。2017年,該公司的首席執(zhí)行官杰米·戴蒙稱比特幣為“欺詐”,而且表示如果手下有人交易比特幣就解雇,因?yàn)椤疤薮馈薄?/p>
摩根大通之所以突然看多,主要因?yàn)樽罱Ц豆綪ayPal決定向客戶提供比特幣,Square也將價值5000萬美元的比特幣納入資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表。不過,摩根大通轉(zhuǎn)換立場的另一主要因素是越來越多年輕一代比起黃金更喜歡比特幣。
“年長人群更喜歡黃金,而年輕人更喜歡把比特幣當(dāng)作‘替代’貨幣。”研究簡報說。
分析師還觀察到,如果該趨勢持續(xù),從長期來看黃金地位可能面臨挑戰(zhàn),比特幣價格也會受到重要影響。
“哪怕比特幣作為‘替代’貨幣長期內(nèi)逐步擠掉黃金,價格與現(xiàn)在相比也能夠相比翻倍或漲到三倍。”該報告指出。
比特幣現(xiàn)價在1.3萬美元左右,遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于2017年末加密泡沫時期的近2萬美元?dú)v史高點(diǎn),之后一年比特幣跌至3400美元左右。不過,目前比特幣價格上漲趨勢較為穩(wěn)健,突破1萬美元大關(guān)后史無前例地連續(xù)三個月持續(xù)上漲。
千禧一代熱愛比特幣已經(jīng)持續(xù)了一段時間。去年年底,嘉信理財(Charles Schwab)的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn),與Netflix和迪士尼(Disney)等知名公司相比,主要經(jīng)營比特幣托管的Grayscale推出的比特幣基金GBTC份額在年輕人中更受歡迎。與此同時,Grayscale還通過全美電視宣傳活動“拋棄黃金”推動了比特幣熱潮。
然而,如果按照總投資額比例來看,黃金比起比特幣仍然多出十倍多。正如摩根大通指出的,黃金與比特幣ETF價值大致相等,但黃金總價值達(dá)2.6萬億美元(比特幣則為2400億美元),因?yàn)辄S金主要持有方式為金條和硬幣。
不過摩根大通似乎也保持謹(jǐn)慎,表示“短期來看,比特幣有超買跡象,而且容易受到獲利回吐行為影響。”但分析師們也補(bǔ)充說,由于比特幣有支付功能,與黃金相比長期發(fā)展前景可能進(jìn)一步提升。(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:馮豐
審校:夏林
A team of analysts at J.P. Morgan’s Global Markets Strategy group are touting Bitcoin’s emergence as an alternative to gold among millennials, suggesting a “doubling or tripling” in the price of the cryptocurrency if current trends continue.
The prediction, which came in a research note published on October 23, is remarkable given the bank’s onetime skepticism toward Bitcoin, which included CEO Jamie Dimon calling it a “fraud” in 2017 and saying he would fire anyone trading it for being “stupid.”
J. P. Morgan’s bullish stance is driven in part by PayPal’s recent decision to offer Bitcoin to its customers and Square’s recent move to add $50 million of the cryptocurrency to its balance sheet. Another major factor for its position, though, is the demographic trend in which younger generations are choosing Bitcoin over gold.
“The older cohorts prefer gold, while the younger cohorts prefer Bitcoin as an ‘a(chǎn)lternative’ currency,” says the research note.
The analysts go on to observe that, if this trend continues, there could be a challenge to gold in the long term—with important price implications for Bitcoin.
“Even a modest crowding out of gold as an ‘a(chǎn)lternative’ currency over the longer term would imply doubling or tripling of the Bitcoin price from here,” the note states.
Bitcoin is currently trading at around $13,000. That falls well short of its all-time high of nearly $20,000, which occurred during the crypto bubble of late 2017, after which Bitcoin fell to around $3,400 the following year. The current price run-up has been more stable, however, with Bitcoin staying above the $10,000 mark for an unprecedented three-month stretch.
Millennials’ embrace of Bitcoin has been underway for a while. Late last year, a Charles Schwab survey found that shares of GBTC, from Grayscale—a company that holds Bitcoin in trust—were more popular among the cohort than famous names like Netflix and Disney. Meanwhile, Grayscale has been fanning the trend with a national TV campaign called “Drop Gold.”
As a percentage of total investment capital, however, gold still dwarfs Bitcoin by a factor of ten. As J.P. Morgan notes, the value of gold and Bitcoin ETFs are about equal, but the yellow metal is worth $2.6 trillion in total (versus $240 billion for Bitcoin) because large amounts of it are held in the form of bars and coins.
K. P. Morgan sounds a note of caution, though, observing that, “for the near term, Bitcoin looks rather overbought and vulnerable to profit taking we think.” But the analysts also add the long-term prospects for Bitcoin could further improve because of its utility as a payment mechanism compared with gold.