美國經(jīng)濟(jì)并非處于衰退期,但新聞頭版標(biāo)題可不是這么說的。
在過去一周中,《時代》雜志稱,“衰退并未結(jié)束,對于一些人來說會變得更糟糕”。《今日美國》雜志說,“幫助經(jīng)濟(jì)走出衰退的舉措會帶來金融危機(jī)風(fēng)險。”《圣荷西水星報》警告稱,“新冠疫情導(dǎo)致的衰退可能會對加州經(jīng)濟(jì)造成長期破壞。”
因此,令我們感到震驚的是,美聯(lián)儲主席杰羅姆?鮑威爾10月7日卻說,“經(jīng)濟(jì)的恢復(fù)進(jìn)度比大部分人預(yù)期的更快”,而且上個月聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會的碰面會所做的預(yù)測也向人們展示,“恢復(fù)依然在穩(wěn)步進(jìn)行。”
恢復(fù)?穩(wěn)步進(jìn)行?有鑒于上周初次失業(yè)救助金申領(lǐng)人數(shù)依然是疫情前的三倍,美聯(lián)儲依據(jù)的到底是什么數(shù)據(jù)?
事實上,鮑威爾是對的,其他人也沒有錯。理解經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的說辭有助于解釋他們?yōu)槭裁凑f不存在衰退,以及為什么普通民眾覺得美國正處于十分糟糕的衰退期。
對于一名經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家來說, “衰退”一詞并非是經(jīng)濟(jì)活動水平,而是僅取決于變化的方向。3月之前,這個方向是上揚(yáng)的。經(jīng)濟(jì)呈現(xiàn)出溫和增長,也就是處于擴(kuò)張狀態(tài)。然后新冠疫情大爆發(fā),大部分經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域關(guān)停,第二季度GDP出現(xiàn)了31%的年化跌幅。這便是大規(guī)模衰退的開始。如果它持續(xù)的時間足夠長,我們會將其稱之為經(jīng)濟(jì)不景氣,后者對于經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家來說是一個不怎么正式的說法。
然而,尤其在美國經(jīng)濟(jì)歷史上,衰退持續(xù)的時間根本不長。隨著企業(yè)重新開業(yè)以及美國政府向經(jīng)濟(jì)注資3萬億美元,經(jīng)濟(jì)活動開始反彈,消費也出現(xiàn)復(fù)蘇,而且商業(yè)投資也在增加。對于經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家來說,經(jīng)濟(jì)活動的這種變化方向,從下跌到上升,就是衰退的結(jié)束,復(fù)蘇的開始。
對于非經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家來說,衰退并非是變化的方向,而是經(jīng)濟(jì)所處的狀態(tài),而且經(jīng)濟(jì)依然很糟糕。官方公布的失業(yè)率達(dá)到了7.9%,較4月的峰值有所下降,但仍高于近8年來的水平,是疫情前的近兩倍。官方的數(shù)據(jù)并未真實反映實際情況,因為有數(shù)百萬人自新冠疫情爆發(fā)后失去了工作,但由于他們已經(jīng)放棄尋找工作,因此未被列入失業(yè)人群。此外,那些被強(qiáng)制休假,以及停工或沒有薪資的工作人員也未被計入失業(yè)人群。鮑威爾預(yù)計,真實的失業(yè)率約為11%,創(chuàng)1940年以來的新高。
有鑒于這些事實以及8月額外聯(lián)邦失業(yè)福利的結(jié)束,我們很容易理解為什么大多數(shù)人都認(rèn)為美國依然處于嚴(yán)重的衰退期。國會預(yù)算辦公室預(yù)測,GDP在2022年第三季度之前難以回到疫情前水平。
可能用最恰當(dāng)?shù)姆绞絹砻枋鼍褪牵何覀冋诰徛叱錾顪Y,而且要很長的時間才能走出去。對于經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家來說,關(guān)鍵詞是“走出”,而對于其他人來說,關(guān)鍵詞是“深淵”。(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:馮豐
審校:夏林
美國經(jīng)濟(jì)并非處于衰退期,但新聞頭版標(biāo)題可不是這么說的。
在過去一周中,《時代》雜志稱,“衰退并未結(jié)束,對于一些人來說會變得更糟糕”。《今日美國》雜志說,“幫助經(jīng)濟(jì)走出衰退的舉措會帶來金融危機(jī)風(fēng)險。”《圣荷西水星報》警告稱,“新冠疫情導(dǎo)致的衰退可能會對加州經(jīng)濟(jì)造成長期破壞。”
因此,令我們感到震驚的是,美聯(lián)儲主席杰羅姆?鮑威爾10月7日卻說,“經(jīng)濟(jì)的恢復(fù)進(jìn)度比大部分人預(yù)期的更快”,而且上個月聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會的碰面會所做的預(yù)測也向人們展示,“恢復(fù)依然在穩(wěn)步進(jìn)行。”
恢復(fù)?穩(wěn)步進(jìn)行?有鑒于上周初次失業(yè)救助金申領(lǐng)人數(shù)依然是疫情前的三倍,美聯(lián)儲依據(jù)的到底是什么數(shù)據(jù)?
事實上,鮑威爾是對的,其他人也沒有錯。理解經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的說辭有助于解釋他們?yōu)槭裁凑f不存在衰退,以及為什么普通民眾覺得美國正處于十分糟糕的衰退期。
對于一名經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家來說, “衰退”一詞并非是經(jīng)濟(jì)活動水平,而是僅取決于變化的方向。3月之前,這個方向是上揚(yáng)的。經(jīng)濟(jì)呈現(xiàn)出溫和增長,也就是處于擴(kuò)張狀態(tài)。然后新冠疫情大爆發(fā),大部分經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域關(guān)停,第二季度GDP出現(xiàn)了31%的年化跌幅。這便是大規(guī)模衰退的開始。如果它持續(xù)的時間足夠長,我們會將其稱之為經(jīng)濟(jì)不景氣,后者對于經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家來說是一個不怎么正式的說法。
然而,尤其在美國經(jīng)濟(jì)歷史上,衰退持續(xù)的時間根本不長。隨著企業(yè)重新開業(yè)以及美國政府向經(jīng)濟(jì)注資3萬億美元,經(jīng)濟(jì)活動開始反彈,消費也出現(xiàn)復(fù)蘇,而且商業(yè)投資也在增加。對于經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家來說,經(jīng)濟(jì)活動的這種變化方向,從下跌到上升,就是衰退的結(jié)束,復(fù)蘇的開始。
對于非經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家來說,衰退并非是變化的方向,而是經(jīng)濟(jì)所處的狀態(tài),而且經(jīng)濟(jì)依然很糟糕。官方公布的失業(yè)率達(dá)到了7.9%,較4月的峰值有所下降,但仍高于近8年來的水平,是疫情前的近兩倍。官方的數(shù)據(jù)并未真實反映實際情況,因為有數(shù)百萬人自新冠疫情爆發(fā)后失去了工作,但由于他們已經(jīng)放棄尋找工作,因此未被列入失業(yè)人群。此外,那些被強(qiáng)制休假,以及停工或沒有薪資的工作人員也未被計入失業(yè)人群。鮑威爾預(yù)計,真實的失業(yè)率約為11%,創(chuàng)1940年以來的新高。
有鑒于這些事實以及8月額外聯(lián)邦失業(yè)福利的結(jié)束,我們很容易理解為什么大多數(shù)人都認(rèn)為美國依然處于嚴(yán)重的衰退期。國會預(yù)算辦公室預(yù)測,GDP在2022年第三季度之前難以回到疫情前水平。
可能用最恰當(dāng)?shù)姆绞絹砻枋鼍褪牵何覀冋诰徛叱錾顪Y,而且要很長的時間才能走出去。對于經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家來說,關(guān)鍵詞是“走出”,而對于其他人來說,關(guān)鍵詞是“深淵”。(財富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:馮豐
審校:夏林
You’d never know it from the headlines, but we’re not in a recession.
In just the past week, Time proclaimed “The Recession Isn’t Over – and It’s About to Get Much Worse for Some.” USA Today said “Efforts to lift economy out of recession pose risk of financial crisis.” The San Jose Mercury News warned that “The coronavirus recession could do long-term damage to California’s economy.”
So it’s jarring to hear Fed Chairman Jerome Powell say, as he did today, that “the recovery has progressed more quickly than generally expected” and that projections at last month’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee “show the recovery continuing at a solid pace.”
Recovery? Solid pace? With the latest week’s initial unemployment claims still more than three times greater than just before the pandemic? What planet’s data is the Fed looking at?
In fact, Powell is right—and so are the rest of us. Understanding how economists talk helps explain why they say there’s no recession and why ordinary civilians feel as if we’re in a bad one.
To an economist, the term “recession” isn’t about the level of economic activity but only about the direction of change. Until March, the direction was up. The economy was growing at a moderate pace; that’s an expansion. Then the coronavirus arrived in a big way; large parts of the economy shut down, and GDP fell 31% annualized in the second quarter. That’s the start of a huge recession. If it lasted long enough, we’d call it a depression, a less formal term among economists.
But, uniquely in U.S. economic history, it didn’t last very long at all. As businesses reopened and Washington injected some $3 trillion into the economy, activity began to rebound. Consumption of goods has bounced back, and business investment is increasing. To an economist, that change in direction of economic activity, from plunging to rising, is the end of a recession and the start of a recovery.
To a non-economist, a recession isn’t about direction of change; it’s about how bad things are, and they’re still bad. The official unemployment rate, 7.9%, is down from its April spike but still higher than it has been in nearly eight years and nearly twice what it was pre-pandemic. The official rate understates the suffering because millions of people have dropped out of the labor force since COVID-19 arrived, and they aren’t counted as unemployed because they’ve given up looking for work. In addition, workers who’ve been furloughed and aren’t working or getting paid are also not counted as unemployed. Powell estimates that the true unemployment rate is around 11%, the highest since 1940.
Combine those facts with the end of additional federal unemployment benefits in early August, and it’s easy to see why most people think we’re still in a severe recession. The Congressional Budget Office forecasts that GDP won’t get back up to its pre-pandemic level until the third quarter of 2022.
Maybe the best way to say it is this: We’re slowly climbing out of a very deep hole, and we won’t be entirely out for quite a long time. For economists, the key words are “climbing out.” For everybody else, the key words are “very deep hole.”