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疫情之下的萬圣節(jié),會(huì)成為糖果公司的災(zāi)難嗎

BETH KOWITT
2020-09-01

問題的關(guān)鍵在于“不給糖就搗蛋”這種習(xí)俗。

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糖果公司正在為新冠疫情下的萬圣節(jié)做好準(zhǔn)備。圖片來源:由好時(shí)提供

除了戴著面具的青少年和喜歡迪士尼的小朋友們,沒有人比糖果和巧克力生產(chǎn)商更喜歡萬圣節(jié)。

萬圣節(jié)熱銷商品M&M’s和士力架(Snickers)等品牌的母公司瑪氏(Mars)會(huì)提前兩年為這個(gè)重要的日子做準(zhǔn)備。在萬圣節(jié)五大糖果品牌中,好時(shí)(Hershey)憑借其同名巧克力、銳滋(Reese’s)和奇巧巧克力(Kit Kat)獨(dú)占其三。萬圣節(jié)在公司年銷售額中的占比高達(dá)10%。好時(shí)全球首席銷售官施朗飛表示:“這是一個(gè)重要的場合?!?/p>

但這個(gè)獨(dú)具美國特色的節(jié)日可能成為又一個(gè)被新冠疫情破壞的傳統(tǒng)。杰富瑞集團(tuán)(Jefferies)分析師羅布?迪克森表示:“有太多不確定性。主要問題是萬圣節(jié)是否會(huì)變成一場災(zāi)難?!?/p>

問題的關(guān)鍵在于“不給糖就搗蛋”這種習(xí)俗?,斒霞疲∕ars Wrigley)公司事務(wù)副總裁杰西卡?阿德爾曼表示:“這種習(xí)俗需要所有人到戶外去與陌生人互動(dòng),這與目前政府對民眾的要求截然相反?!?

哈里斯民意調(diào)查機(jī)構(gòu)(Harris Poll)最近受美國國家糖果制造商協(xié)會(huì)(National Confectioners Association)委托進(jìn)行的調(diào)查,將給糖果公司帶來一絲希望:調(diào)查結(jié)果顯示,74%的“千禧一代媽媽”和年輕家長表示,今年的萬圣節(jié)比以往更重要。

上個(gè)月,好時(shí)首席執(zhí)行官米歇爾?巴克在公司營收電話會(huì)議上表示:“我們認(rèn)為消費(fèi)者會(huì)找到有創(chuàng)意并且安全的方式繼續(xù)‘不給糖就搗蛋’的習(xí)俗。這是一種戶外活動(dòng),而且許多人本身就配戴了面具?!彼a(bǔ)充說,如果參加“不給糖就搗蛋”的人少于預(yù)期,好時(shí)將把重點(diǎn)轉(zhuǎn)向“給自己的禮物和糖果罐等場合”,也就是業(yè)內(nèi)所說的人們自己購買糖果自己享用。

自己享用一直在萬圣節(jié)的糖果消費(fèi)中占有很大比例,今年或許會(huì)拯救糖果制造商的銷售。對于糖果制造業(yè)而言,萬圣節(jié)不止是一天,而是長達(dá)10周、購買糖果的節(jié)日。迪克森表示,萬圣節(jié)從根本上來說就是“買糖的借口”。

例如,好時(shí)報(bào)告稱,消費(fèi)者購買糖果自己享用所帶來的銷售收入,占萬圣節(jié)糖果銷售額的近50%。這些消費(fèi)者早在萬圣節(jié)之前就已經(jīng)開始采購,另一半糖果銷售發(fā)生在10月最后兩周,主要用于“不給糖就搗蛋”。

好時(shí)從5月開始收到零售商的萬圣節(jié)訂單。該公司表示,到目前為止,這些訂單的銷售情況令人滿意。施朗飛表示,鑒于復(fù)活節(jié)的成功,他對萬圣節(jié)同樣保持樂觀。復(fù)活節(jié)正值疫情高潮時(shí)期,但消費(fèi)者選擇了用不同方式慶祝這個(gè)節(jié)日,在家里舉辦了更多活動(dòng)。他預(yù)計(jì)萬圣節(jié)將是同樣會(huì)增加居家消費(fèi)。他說:“糖果這類商品很有彈性?!?

新冠疫情已經(jīng)在許多方面證明了該行業(yè)的實(shí)力,例如消費(fèi)者在囤積罐頭濃湯和花生醬的同時(shí)采購了大量糖果和巧克力。在上一次營收電話會(huì)議中,好時(shí)報(bào)告稱“自疫情爆發(fā)以來,每天的巧克力銷售額持續(xù)增長9%。”

費(fèi)列羅(Ferrero)品類管理和市場研究副總裁菲爾?德孔托表示,今年萬圣節(jié)早期的節(jié)日季銷售數(shù)據(jù)與前幾年的水平相當(dāng)。費(fèi)列羅在美國有Butterfinger、Crunch和Baby Ruth等多個(gè)品牌。他說:“讓我感到心安的是,市場正在走向正軌,購物者與往年一樣在采購糖果?!?

但為了減少任何潛在風(fēng)險(xiǎn),公司依舊在調(diào)整計(jì)劃。好時(shí)正在減少季節(jié)性產(chǎn)品的產(chǎn)量,比如銳滋的Pumpkins系列,增加傳統(tǒng)產(chǎn)品和包裝產(chǎn)品的生產(chǎn),因?yàn)檫@些產(chǎn)品即使有剩余庫存也更容易清倉。億滋國際(Mondelēz International)預(yù)計(jì)消費(fèi)者更愿意購買家庭裝,而不是用于不給糖就搗蛋的散裝糖果。

瑪氏箭牌甚至推出了一款名為Treat Town的應(yīng)用,用戶可以“以虛擬方式進(jìn)行不給糖就搗蛋,獲得真實(shí)的糖果?!毕M(fèi)者可以購買和獲取積分,這些積分可以向零售商換購公司的商品。另外,瑪氏箭牌與國家安全委員會(huì)(National Safety Council)合作制定了在疫情期間慶祝萬圣節(jié)的安全指南。

不止是“不給糖就搗蛋”可以轉(zhuǎn)移到線上。費(fèi)列羅的德孔托認(rèn)為咨詢公司凱度(Kantar)的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)顯示,在停工之后的前五周,在線銷售的采用率相當(dāng)于過去五年的總和。他說,在線銷售從“未來的戰(zhàn)略工具變成了當(dāng)前的戰(zhàn)略工具?!?

萬圣節(jié)期間將延續(xù)這種趨勢。好時(shí)預(yù)測,萬圣節(jié)期間,路邊自提和送貨上門訂單將占總銷售額的15%至20%。

迪克森:“我感覺人的心理是極其復(fù)雜的。但我并不認(rèn)為有任何人敢說萬圣節(jié)會(huì)徹底消失?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

除了戴著面具的青少年和喜歡迪士尼的小朋友們,沒有人比糖果和巧克力生產(chǎn)商更喜歡萬圣節(jié)。

萬圣節(jié)熱銷商品M&M’s和士力架(Snickers)等品牌的母公司瑪氏(Mars)會(huì)提前兩年為這個(gè)重要的日子做準(zhǔn)備。在萬圣節(jié)五大糖果品牌中,好時(shí)(Hershey)憑借其同名巧克力、銳滋(Reese’s)和奇巧巧克力(Kit Kat)獨(dú)占其三。萬圣節(jié)在公司年銷售額中的占比高達(dá)10%。好時(shí)全球首席銷售官施朗飛表示:“這是一個(gè)重要的場合。”

但這個(gè)獨(dú)具美國特色的節(jié)日可能成為又一個(gè)被新冠疫情破壞的傳統(tǒng)。杰富瑞集團(tuán)(Jefferies)分析師羅布?迪克森表示:“有太多不確定性。主要問題是萬圣節(jié)是否會(huì)變成一場災(zāi)難?!?/p>

問題的關(guān)鍵在于“不給糖就搗蛋”這種習(xí)俗?,斒霞疲∕ars Wrigley)公司事務(wù)副總裁杰西卡?阿德爾曼表示:“這種習(xí)俗需要所有人到戶外去與陌生人互動(dòng),這與目前政府對民眾的要求截然相反。”

哈里斯民意調(diào)查機(jī)構(gòu)(Harris Poll)最近受美國國家糖果制造商協(xié)會(huì)(National Confectioners Association)委托進(jìn)行的調(diào)查,將給糖果公司帶來一絲希望:調(diào)查結(jié)果顯示,74%的“千禧一代媽媽”和年輕家長表示,今年的萬圣節(jié)比以往更重要。

上個(gè)月,好時(shí)首席執(zhí)行官米歇爾?巴克在公司營收電話會(huì)議上表示:“我們認(rèn)為消費(fèi)者會(huì)找到有創(chuàng)意并且安全的方式繼續(xù)‘不給糖就搗蛋’的習(xí)俗。這是一種戶外活動(dòng),而且許多人本身就配戴了面具?!彼a(bǔ)充說,如果參加“不給糖就搗蛋”的人少于預(yù)期,好時(shí)將把重點(diǎn)轉(zhuǎn)向“給自己的禮物和糖果罐等場合”,也就是業(yè)內(nèi)所說的人們自己購買糖果自己享用。

自己享用一直在萬圣節(jié)的糖果消費(fèi)中占有很大比例,今年或許會(huì)拯救糖果制造商的銷售。對于糖果制造業(yè)而言,萬圣節(jié)不止是一天,而是長達(dá)10周、購買糖果的節(jié)日。迪克森表示,萬圣節(jié)從根本上來說就是“買糖的借口”。

例如,好時(shí)報(bào)告稱,消費(fèi)者購買糖果自己享用所帶來的銷售收入,占萬圣節(jié)糖果銷售額的近50%。這些消費(fèi)者早在萬圣節(jié)之前就已經(jīng)開始采購,另一半糖果銷售發(fā)生在10月最后兩周,主要用于“不給糖就搗蛋”。

好時(shí)從5月開始收到零售商的萬圣節(jié)訂單。該公司表示,到目前為止,這些訂單的銷售情況令人滿意。施朗飛表示,鑒于復(fù)活節(jié)的成功,他對萬圣節(jié)同樣保持樂觀。復(fù)活節(jié)正值疫情高潮時(shí)期,但消費(fèi)者選擇了用不同方式慶祝這個(gè)節(jié)日,在家里舉辦了更多活動(dòng)。他預(yù)計(jì)萬圣節(jié)將是同樣會(huì)增加居家消費(fèi)。他說:“糖果這類商品很有彈性?!?

新冠疫情已經(jīng)在許多方面證明了該行業(yè)的實(shí)力,例如消費(fèi)者在囤積罐頭濃湯和花生醬的同時(shí)采購了大量糖果和巧克力。在上一次營收電話會(huì)議中,好時(shí)報(bào)告稱“自疫情爆發(fā)以來,每天的巧克力銷售額持續(xù)增長9%?!?/p>

費(fèi)列羅(Ferrero)品類管理和市場研究副總裁菲爾?德孔托表示,今年萬圣節(jié)早期的節(jié)日季銷售數(shù)據(jù)與前幾年的水平相當(dāng)。費(fèi)列羅在美國有Butterfinger、Crunch和Baby Ruth等多個(gè)品牌。他說:“讓我感到心安的是,市場正在走向正軌,購物者與往年一樣在采購糖果。”

但為了減少任何潛在風(fēng)險(xiǎn),公司依舊在調(diào)整計(jì)劃。好時(shí)正在減少季節(jié)性產(chǎn)品的產(chǎn)量,比如銳滋的Pumpkins系列,增加傳統(tǒng)產(chǎn)品和包裝產(chǎn)品的生產(chǎn),因?yàn)檫@些產(chǎn)品即使有剩余庫存也更容易清倉。億滋國際(Mondelēz International)預(yù)計(jì)消費(fèi)者更愿意購買家庭裝,而不是用于不給糖就搗蛋的散裝糖果。

瑪氏箭牌甚至推出了一款名為Treat Town的應(yīng)用,用戶可以“以虛擬方式進(jìn)行不給糖就搗蛋,獲得真實(shí)的糖果。”消費(fèi)者可以購買和獲取積分,這些積分可以向零售商換購公司的商品。另外,瑪氏箭牌與國家安全委員會(huì)(National Safety Council)合作制定了在疫情期間慶祝萬圣節(jié)的安全指南。

不止是“不給糖就搗蛋”可以轉(zhuǎn)移到線上。費(fèi)列羅的德孔托認(rèn)為咨詢公司凱度(Kantar)的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)顯示,在停工之后的前五周,在線銷售的采用率相當(dāng)于過去五年的總和。他說,在線銷售從“未來的戰(zhàn)略工具變成了當(dāng)前的戰(zhàn)略工具?!?

萬圣節(jié)期間將延續(xù)這種趨勢。好時(shí)預(yù)測,萬圣節(jié)期間,路邊自提和送貨上門訂單將占總銷售額的15%至20%。

迪克森:“我感覺人的心理是極其復(fù)雜的。但我并不認(rèn)為有任何人敢說萬圣節(jié)會(huì)徹底消失?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

翻譯:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

Other than mask-wearing tweens and Disney-loving toddlers, no one obsesses more about Halloween than candy and chocolate makers.

Mars, the company behind Halloween staples like M&M’s and Snickers, starts its planning for the big day two years in advance. For Hershey—which has three of the top five Halloween brands in its namesake chocolate, Reese’s, and Kit Kat—the holiday represents 10% of the company’s annual sales. “It’s big,” says Phil Stanley, Hershey’s global chief sales officer.

But the uniquely American holiday is just the latest tradition that COVID-19 has the potential to thwart. “There’s a lot of uncertainty,” says Jefferies analyst Rob Dickerson. “The main question—is Halloween going to be a disaster or not?”

The obvious issue at play: trick-or-treating. “It’s designed to have you go out and interact with strangers en masse, which is the exact opposite of what everyone is being told to do right now,” says Jessica Adelman, vice president of corporate affairs at Mars Wrigley.

A recent survey conducted by the Harris Poll on behalf of the National Confectioners Association is giving candy companies a sign of hope: The results found that 74% of "millennial moms" and young parents say Halloween is more important than ever this year.

“We think that consumers will find creative and safe ways to trick-or-treat. It is an outdoor event, and it’s an event where a lot of masks are already worn,” said Hershey CEO Michele Buck on the company’s earnings call last month. She added that if trick-or-treating is lower than expected, Hershey will focus on the “Treat for Me and Candy Bowl occasion”—industry-speak for people buying candy that they will end up eating themselves.

Self-consumption has always been a massive part of the holiday and may end up salvaging sales for candy makers this year. Halloween isn’t a single day for the industry but rather a 10-week treat-buying fest. The holiday is basically an “excuse to buy candy,” says Dickerson.

Hershey, for example, has reported that people buying goodies to eat themselves makes up nearly 50% of sales at Halloween. Those purchases begin well before the holiday, with the other half of the season’s sales occurring in the last two weeks of October and designated for trick-or-treating.

Hershey starts receiving Halloween orders in May from retailers and says that it is so far pleased with how those sales are tracking. Stanley says he’s also optimistic based on how Easter panned out. The holiday took place at the height of the pandemic, but consumers just celebrated differently, with more events taking place at home. He expects the same for Halloween, which could drive up even more at-home consumption. “It’s a resilient category,” he says.

The pandemic in many ways has already showcased the strength of the sector, with consumers stockpiling candy and chocolate along with their canned soup and peanut butter. Hershey on its last earnings call reported that "everyday chocolate sales have consistently grown 9% since the pandemic began."

Phil DeConto, vice president of category management and shopper insights at Ferrero, which is behind brands in the U.S. like Butterfinger, Crunch, and Baby Ruth, says that the very early seasonal sales data is on par with prior years. “I take peace in that it’s getting on the floor and that shoppers are finding and purchasing it in line with any other year,” he says.

But companies are still adjusting their plans to mitigate any potential risk. Hershey is scaling back its production of seasonal treats—think items like Reese’s Pumpkins—in favor of traditional products and packaging, which are easier to sell off if inventory is left over. Mondelēz International expects that consumers will be seeking out family-size packs rather than individual pieces for trick-or-treating.

Mars Wrigley is even going so far as to launch an app called Treat Town, which allows users to “virtually trick-or-treat for real candy.” Consumers can buy and earn credits that they will be able to redeem at retailers for the company’s products. It’s also partnering with the National Safety Council to develop guidelines for safe ways to celebrate Halloween amid the pandemic.

It’s not just the trick-or-treating that could move online. Ferrero’s DeConto points to stats from consultancy Kantar that indicate that online sales experienced the equivalent of five years’ worth of adoption in the first five weeks of the shutdown. It’s gone from a “strategic lever for the future to a strategic lever for right now,” he says.

That’s likely to continue during Halloween, with Hershey expecting that curbside pickup and home delivery will make up 15% to 20% of the season’s sales.

“My sense is that the human psyche works in complicated ways,” says Dickerson. “But I don’t think anybody can say there will be no Halloween.”

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