目前,除了各州發放的失業救助金之外,失業的美國民眾每周都會從聯邦政府那里額外收到600美元的失業救助金。但這項來自于《冠狀病毒援助、救濟和經濟安全法案》(CARES Act)的福利將于7月底到期,除非聯邦政府能延長其期限。
一旦聯邦失業救助金消失后,1950萬領取失業保險的美國民眾每周將減收600美元,一個月就是2400美元。這一情況不僅會讓眾多家庭陷入入不敷出的困境,同時也可能會讓經濟復蘇號列車偏離軌道。
Moody’s Analytics的首席經濟師馬克·贊迪說:“如果失業保險救助金戛然而止,我們的經濟會再次陷入衰退。”他認為數據顯示,按照當前的情況來看,衰退已經在5月底結束,但如果完全取消每周額外的600美元失業救助金,尤其是眼下美國公共衛生事件再次惡化,那么經濟很有可能會因此而再度萎縮。“這些人將無力支付其賬單,并停止消費,從而導致整個經濟走下坡路。”
《財富》雜志在分析了美國經濟分析局的收入數據后發現,僅5月一個月,每周額外600美元的失業救助金就讓人們的收入增加了約700億美元,比八個州的GDP總和還要多。
說到GDP:國會預算辦公室6月的報告稱,如果這些福利能夠延續到年底,那么2020年下半年的家庭支出和GDP很有可能會攀升。左派的經濟政策研究所稱,如果能夠延續到2021年中期,那么季度平均GDP 將提振3.7個百分點。
然而,國會預算辦公室在同一篇報告中指出,如果600美元的額外收入得以充分延期的話,那么有可能降低就業率。原因何在?因為國會預算辦公室發現,六分之五的失業救助金領取人在下半年獲得的救助金將高于其在工作中拿到的周薪。因此,豐厚的救助金可能會放緩一些員工回歸工作的步伐,繼而拖累經濟復蘇。
至少參議院共和黨是這么認為的,他們反對將600美元的救助金計劃進行延期,并阻止了民主黨在眾議院通過3萬億美元的救助方案,其中包括將救助金延至2021年1月。
巴德學院的經濟學副教授帕芙琳那·特切內瓦說:“這些福利為即將崩塌的經濟提供了一個支撐。這是在保護或補救經濟方面所能做的最低限度保障工作。如果拿掉這部分救助金,基本上就是放任大壩的決堤。”帕芙琳那是最近出版的《工作保障案例》(The Case for a Job Guarantee)一書的作者,她支持將救助金計劃延期到年底。
如果放任這筆救助金消失,我們可能會看到來之不易的經濟復蘇也將成為明日黃花。(財富中文網)
譯者:Feb
目前,除了各州發放的失業救助金之外,失業的美國民眾每周都會從聯邦政府那里額外收到600美元的失業救助金。但這項來自于《冠狀病毒援助、救濟和經濟安全法案》(CARES Act)的福利將于7月底到期,除非聯邦政府能延長其期限。
一旦聯邦失業救助金消失后,1950萬領取失業保險的美國民眾每周將減收600美元,一個月就是2400美元。這一情況不僅會讓眾多家庭陷入入不敷出的困境,同時也可能會讓經濟復蘇號列車偏離軌道。
Moody’s Analytics的首席經濟師馬克·贊迪說:“如果失業保險救助金戛然而止,我們的經濟會再次陷入衰退。”他認為數據顯示,按照當前的情況來看,衰退已經在5月底結束,但如果完全取消每周額外的600美元失業救助金,尤其是眼下美國公共衛生事件再次惡化,那么經濟很有可能會因此而再度萎縮。“這些人將無力支付其賬單,并停止消費,從而導致整個經濟走下坡路。”
《財富》雜志在分析了美國經濟分析局的收入數據后發現,僅5月一個月,每周額外600美元的失業救助金就讓人們的收入增加了約700億美元,比八個州的GDP總和還要多。
說到GDP:國會預算辦公室6月的報告稱,如果這些福利能夠延續到年底,那么2020年下半年的家庭支出和GDP很有可能會攀升。左派的經濟政策研究所稱,如果能夠延續到2021年中期,那么季度平均GDP 將提振3.7個百分點。
然而,國會預算辦公室在同一篇報告中指出,如果600美元的額外收入得以充分延期的話,那么有可能降低就業率。原因何在?因為國會預算辦公室發現,六分之五的失業救助金領取人在下半年獲得的救助金將高于其在工作中拿到的周薪。因此,豐厚的救助金可能會放緩一些員工回歸工作的步伐,繼而拖累經濟復蘇。
至少參議院共和黨是這么認為的,他們反對將600美元的救助金計劃進行延期,并阻止了民主黨在眾議院通過3萬億美元的救助方案,其中包括將救助金延至2021年1月。
巴德學院的經濟學副教授帕芙琳那·特切內瓦說:“這些福利為即將崩塌的經濟提供了一個支撐。這是在保護或補救經濟方面所能做的最低限度保障工作。如果拿掉這部分救助金,基本上就是放任大壩的決堤。”帕芙琳那是最近出版的《工作保障案例》(The Case for a Job Guarantee)一書的作者,她支持將救助金計劃延期到年底。
如果放任這筆救助金消失,我們可能會看到來之不易的經濟復蘇也將成為明日黃花。(財富中文網)
譯者:Feb
Jobless Americans are receiving an extra $600 per week in unemployment benefits from the federal government on top of their state benefits. But that extra $600 benefit set aside from the CARES Act expires at the end of July unless the federal government extends it.
Once that federal unemployment bonus is gone, the 19.5 million Americans actively receiving unemployment insurance would see a $600 weekly—or $2,400 monthly—pay cut. Not only will that translate into many households not being able to make ends meet, but it could also derail the economic recovery.
"The economy going back into recession is likely if we cold-turkey cut the extra unemployment insurance benefits," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. He thinks the data will show that on the current trajectory the recession ended in May, but a complete phaseout of the $600 extra weekly unemployment benefits—in a country where COVID-19 cases are rising again—would likely pull the economy back into contraction. "They'd stop paying their bills and stop spending, and [it would] kick the whole economy down."
The extra $600 weekly unemployment benefits boosted incomes by around $70 billion in the month of May alone, according to Fortune's analysis of U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis income data. That's larger than the gross domestic product (GDP) of eight states.
And speaking of GDP: If the benefits are extended through the end of the year, it is likely that GDP and household spending would be greater in the second half of 2020, according to a June report by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). And if extended through the middle of 2021, it would increase average quarterly GDP by 3.7%, according to the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute.
However, if the extra $600 payments are fully extended it would likely lower employment, according to the same CBO report. How so? Around five in six unemployment benefit recipients would get weekly payouts in the second half of the year greater than what they'd expect to make working, the CBO finds. So the generous benefits could deter some workers from returning to jobs and slow down the recovery.
At least that's the thinking of Senate Republicans who are opposed to extending the $600 benefits and blocked a $3 trillion relief package passed by Democrats in the House, which included an extension of the benefits through January 2021.
"Those benefits put a floor on the collapsing economy. It's the minimum of what's necessary to protect or Band-Aid the economy. If removed, it is essentially letting the dam break," says Pavlina Tcherneva, an associate professor of economics at Bard College and author of the recently published book The Case for a Job Guarantee. She supports extending the benefits through the end of the year.
Allow them to disappear, and we may see the hard-won economic gains we've made disappear too.