全美企業(yè)因疫情關(guān)停三個(gè)月之后,美國(guó)雇主依然在大量地取消工作崗位。這一趨勢(shì)意味著衰退后的恢復(fù)將是一個(gè)緩慢而又漫長(zhǎng)的過(guò)程。
美國(guó)政府稱(chēng),六月第二周首次申領(lǐng)失業(yè)救助金的人數(shù)為150萬(wàn),幾乎沒(méi)有下降,但低于3月曾出現(xiàn)的700萬(wàn)峰值,也是該數(shù)字連續(xù)第11周出現(xiàn)下滑。然而,這個(gè)數(shù)字依然是疫情前最高紀(jì)錄的兩倍多,而領(lǐng)取失業(yè)救助金的總?cè)藬?shù)依然達(dá)到了2050萬(wàn)這一天文數(shù)字。
對(duì)于那些預(yù)計(jì)失業(yè)金領(lǐng)取人數(shù)將銳減的分析師來(lái)說(shuō),這些數(shù)字讓其感到驚訝和失望,因?yàn)楦髦菡饾u重啟其經(jīng)濟(jì),而企業(yè)則在召回下崗員工。在看到該數(shù)據(jù)之后,人們還擔(dān)心最近的裁員可能意味著工作崗位的永久消失,原因是為了響應(yīng)政府的關(guān)停令,各大公司對(duì)其業(yè)務(wù)進(jìn)行了重組,而不是暫時(shí)削減業(yè)務(wù)規(guī)模。
牛津經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所首席美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)師格里高利?達(dá)科稱(chēng),該報(bào)告“告訴我們,要治愈經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退期間崗位消失造成的傷疤,所需時(shí)間將超出我們的預(yù)期。”
與此同時(shí),盡管數(shù)據(jù)回答了很多有關(guān)市場(chǎng)就業(yè)現(xiàn)狀的問(wèn)題,但其引發(fā)的新疑問(wèn)也不在少數(shù)。失業(yè)金領(lǐng)取人數(shù)通常反映了裁員的節(jié)奏。然而,這些數(shù)字并未說(shuō)明當(dāng)前有多少能夠抵消這些損失的新招聘崗位數(shù)量。例如在5月,雇主新增了250萬(wàn)個(gè)工作崗位,這一增長(zhǎng)著實(shí)出乎分析師的意料,因?yàn)樯暾?qǐng)失業(yè)救助金的人數(shù)依然如此之高。
一些可能的因素幫助解釋了為什么在企業(yè)逐漸重新開(kāi)業(yè)以及重新雇傭此前被解雇員工的同時(shí),失業(yè)救助申領(lǐng)人數(shù)依然如此之高的原因。其中一個(gè)原因在于,很多直接面向客戶(hù)的業(yè)務(wù),從餐館和電影院到健身房和賭場(chǎng),依然未能完全運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)。有鑒于此,一些公司仍在削減崗位。
例如路易斯安娜州的賭場(chǎng)僅開(kāi)放了一半的接待能力。但在該州經(jīng)營(yíng)五家賭場(chǎng)的Boyd Gaming Corp.已經(jīng)通知其1500名員工,由于公司財(cái)務(wù)虧損日益嚴(yán)重,這些員工可能會(huì)在7月初丟掉飯碗。
在一些受影響尤為嚴(yán)重的領(lǐng)域,例如酒店和旅游行業(yè),很多公司如今都在削減白領(lǐng)員工,因?yàn)槠錁I(yè)務(wù)依然遠(yuǎn)低于疫情前的水平。本周希爾頓酒店稱(chēng),公司將削減全球22%的員工,約2100個(gè)崗位。
Opportunity Insights匯總的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,盡管美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的主要推手消費(fèi)支出正逐漸走出4月中旬的低谷,但該領(lǐng)域依然遠(yuǎn)低于疫情前水平。這一趨勢(shì)可能會(huì)迫使一些成功渡過(guò)最初關(guān)停期的公司發(fā)生改變。例如,AT&T曾稱(chēng),本周公司計(jì)劃在未來(lái)幾周之內(nèi)裁掉3400名技術(shù)和文職人員。公司還計(jì)劃永久性地關(guān)閉250家移動(dòng)以及Mobility and Cricket Wireless店面。
阿普約恩研究所高級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)師布拉德?荷西貝恩說(shuō):“我們開(kāi)始看到更多高技能崗位的損失,而且這些崗位更加難以恢復(fù)。”
一些州可能依然在審核數(shù)周或數(shù)月前所積壓的失業(yè)救助金申請(qǐng)。
居住在奧蘭多附近吉斯米的科琳娜?庫(kù)克上周剛剛收到其第一份失業(yè)救助金,她4月中旬就已下崗。28歲的庫(kù)克于9月搬到了這個(gè)地區(qū),擔(dān)任沃爾特迪士尼的3-D模型師,合約期限18個(gè)月。該工作涉及雕刻角色原型,然后用3-D打印機(jī)打印。她在迪士尼樂(lè)園關(guān)閉后便失去了工作。
她收到了來(lái)自于佛羅里達(dá)州的最低州失業(yè)救助金,一周125美元,因?yàn)樵撝輿](méi)有她此前在新澤西州收入的記錄,但她說(shuō)自己已經(jīng)從那家公司上載、郵寄和傳真了自己的文件。如果她此前的收入信息能夠得到有效采信,那么她的救助金將增加一倍多。不過(guò),她很感激額外獲得的600美元聯(lián)邦失業(yè)救助金,她可以用這些錢(qián)來(lái)支付一些賬單。
她說(shuō),應(yīng)對(duì)州政府的官僚主義“令人倍感壓力”。
牛津經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所的達(dá)科稱(chēng),他依然預(yù)計(jì)即將于7月初發(fā)布的6月工作報(bào)告會(huì)再次出現(xiàn)招聘人數(shù)的上升,但這些數(shù)據(jù)十分難以預(yù)測(cè)。他說(shuō),每個(gè)月都有上千萬(wàn)人失去工作或找到工作,也讓工作市場(chǎng)走向的預(yù)測(cè)工作變得更加困難。
5月的工作報(bào)告顯示,經(jīng)濟(jì)損失可能已經(jīng)觸底反彈。失業(yè)率從14.7%下滑至依然較高的13.3%
即便如此,近2100萬(wàn)民眾已被官方認(rèn)定為失業(yè)人群,其中包括那些政府稱(chēng)在5月被錯(cuò)誤地劃分為在崗人群的數(shù)量,以及失去工作但并未尋找新工作的人。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家估計(jì),有3250萬(wàn)人失去了工作。
報(bào)告顯示,另有76萬(wàn)人上周通過(guò)一個(gè)針對(duì)個(gè)體戶(hù)和零工的新計(jì)劃,申請(qǐng)了失業(yè)救助金,也讓這些人第一次獲得了領(lǐng)取救助金的機(jī)會(huì)。這些數(shù)字并未根據(jù)季節(jié)性變化進(jìn)行調(diào)整,因此政府并未將他們納入官方統(tǒng)計(jì)的數(shù)字中。
最近其他一些數(shù)據(jù)更為鼓舞人心,它們顯示,關(guān)停令的放松已經(jīng)點(diǎn)燃了消費(fèi)者的需求。盡管大多數(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)依然遠(yuǎn)低于疫情前水平,但一些分析師質(zhì)問(wèn),最近獲得的進(jìn)步是否可以持續(xù),尤其是在病毒回歸的今天。
政府上周二稱(chēng),上個(gè)月的零售與餐廳銷(xiāo)售額躍升了近18%,同時(shí)也提到了前兩個(gè)月一些創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的跌幅。然而,零售購(gòu)買(mǎi)額與往年的差距依然達(dá)到了可觀(guān)的6%。
消費(fèi)支出出現(xiàn)一定程度反彈的一個(gè)重要原因在于政府的救助計(jì)劃,例如一次性的1200美元刺激性救助金以及一周600美元的聯(lián)邦補(bǔ)充失業(yè)救助金,這些都幫助抵消了被裁美國(guó)員工的收入損失。然而,幾乎所有的刺激性錢(qián)款都已經(jīng)發(fā)放完畢,而且聯(lián)邦補(bǔ)充失業(yè)救助金也將于7月31日到期。
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席杰羅姆?鮑威爾周二在向參議院委員會(huì)所做的證詞中稱(chēng):“最近,一些指標(biāo)顯示經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)正趨于穩(wěn)定,而且在某些領(lǐng)域出現(xiàn)了溫和反彈。”然而,“在公眾堅(jiān)信疾病得到控制之前,經(jīng)濟(jì)難以得到全面的恢復(fù)。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:馮豐
審校:夏林
全美企業(yè)因疫情關(guān)停三個(gè)月之后,美國(guó)雇主依然在大量地取消工作崗位。這一趨勢(shì)意味著衰退后的恢復(fù)將是一個(gè)緩慢而又漫長(zhǎng)的過(guò)程。
美國(guó)政府稱(chēng),六月第二周首次申領(lǐng)失業(yè)救助金的人數(shù)為150萬(wàn),幾乎沒(méi)有下降,但低于3月曾出現(xiàn)的700萬(wàn)峰值,也是該數(shù)字連續(xù)第11周出現(xiàn)下滑。然而,這個(gè)數(shù)字依然是疫情前最高紀(jì)錄的兩倍多,而領(lǐng)取失業(yè)救助金的總?cè)藬?shù)依然達(dá)到了2050萬(wàn)這一天文數(shù)字。
對(duì)于那些預(yù)計(jì)失業(yè)金領(lǐng)取人數(shù)將銳減的分析師來(lái)說(shuō),這些數(shù)字讓其感到驚訝和失望,因?yàn)楦髦菡饾u重啟其經(jīng)濟(jì),而企業(yè)則在召回下崗員工。在看到該數(shù)據(jù)之后,人們還擔(dān)心最近的裁員可能意味著工作崗位的永久消失,原因是為了響應(yīng)政府的關(guān)停令,各大公司對(duì)其業(yè)務(wù)進(jìn)行了重組,而不是暫時(shí)削減業(yè)務(wù)規(guī)模。
牛津經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所首席美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)師格里高利?達(dá)科稱(chēng),該報(bào)告“告訴我們,要治愈經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退期間崗位消失造成的傷疤,所需時(shí)間將超出我們的預(yù)期。”
與此同時(shí),盡管數(shù)據(jù)回答了很多有關(guān)市場(chǎng)就業(yè)現(xiàn)狀的問(wèn)題,但其引發(fā)的新疑問(wèn)也不在少數(shù)。失業(yè)金領(lǐng)取人數(shù)通常反映了裁員的節(jié)奏。然而,這些數(shù)字并未說(shuō)明當(dāng)前有多少能夠抵消這些損失的新招聘崗位數(shù)量。例如在5月,雇主新增了250萬(wàn)個(gè)工作崗位,這一增長(zhǎng)著實(shí)出乎分析師的意料,因?yàn)樯暾?qǐng)失業(yè)救助金的人數(shù)依然如此之高。
一些可能的因素幫助解釋了為什么在企業(yè)逐漸重新開(kāi)業(yè)以及重新雇傭此前被解雇員工的同時(shí),失業(yè)救助申領(lǐng)人數(shù)依然如此之高的原因。其中一個(gè)原因在于,很多直接面向客戶(hù)的業(yè)務(wù),從餐館和電影院到健身房和賭場(chǎng),依然未能完全運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)。有鑒于此,一些公司仍在削減崗位。
例如路易斯安娜州的賭場(chǎng)僅開(kāi)放了一半的接待能力。但在該州經(jīng)營(yíng)五家賭場(chǎng)的Boyd Gaming Corp.已經(jīng)通知其1500名員工,由于公司財(cái)務(wù)虧損日益嚴(yán)重,這些員工可能會(huì)在7月初丟掉飯碗。
在一些受影響尤為嚴(yán)重的領(lǐng)域,例如酒店和旅游行業(yè),很多公司如今都在削減白領(lǐng)員工,因?yàn)槠錁I(yè)務(wù)依然遠(yuǎn)低于疫情前的水平。本周希爾頓酒店稱(chēng),公司將削減全球22%的員工,約2100個(gè)崗位。
Opportunity Insights匯總的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,盡管美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的主要推手消費(fèi)支出正逐漸走出4月中旬的低谷,但該領(lǐng)域依然遠(yuǎn)低于疫情前水平。這一趨勢(shì)可能會(huì)迫使一些成功渡過(guò)最初關(guān)停期的公司發(fā)生改變。例如,AT&T曾稱(chēng),本周公司計(jì)劃在未來(lái)幾周之內(nèi)裁掉3400名技術(shù)和文職人員。公司還計(jì)劃永久性地關(guān)閉250家移動(dòng)以及Mobility and Cricket Wireless店面。
阿普約恩研究所高級(jí)經(jīng)濟(jì)師布拉德?荷西貝恩說(shuō):“我們開(kāi)始看到更多高技能崗位的損失,而且這些崗位更加難以恢復(fù)。”
一些州可能依然在審核數(shù)周或數(shù)月前所積壓的失業(yè)救助金申請(qǐng)。
居住在奧蘭多附近吉斯米的科琳娜?庫(kù)克上周剛剛收到其第一份失業(yè)救助金,她4月中旬就已下崗。28歲的庫(kù)克于9月搬到了這個(gè)地區(qū),擔(dān)任沃爾特迪士尼的3-D模型師,合約期限18個(gè)月。該工作涉及雕刻角色原型,然后用3-D打印機(jī)打印。她在迪士尼樂(lè)園關(guān)閉后便失去了工作。
她收到了來(lái)自于佛羅里達(dá)州的最低州失業(yè)救助金,一周125美元,因?yàn)樵撝輿](méi)有她此前在新澤西州收入的記錄,但她說(shuō)自己已經(jīng)從那家公司上載、郵寄和傳真了自己的文件。如果她此前的收入信息能夠得到有效采信,那么她的救助金將增加一倍多。不過(guò),她很感激額外獲得的600美元聯(lián)邦失業(yè)救助金,她可以用這些錢(qián)來(lái)支付一些賬單。
她說(shuō),應(yīng)對(duì)州政府的官僚主義“令人倍感壓力”。
牛津經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所的達(dá)科稱(chēng),他依然預(yù)計(jì)即將于7月初發(fā)布的6月工作報(bào)告會(huì)再次出現(xiàn)招聘人數(shù)的上升,但這些數(shù)據(jù)十分難以預(yù)測(cè)。他說(shuō),每個(gè)月都有上千萬(wàn)人失去工作或找到工作,也讓工作市場(chǎng)走向的預(yù)測(cè)工作變得更加困難。
5月的工作報(bào)告顯示,經(jīng)濟(jì)損失可能已經(jīng)觸底反彈。失業(yè)率從14.7%下滑至依然較高的13.3%
即便如此,近2100萬(wàn)民眾已被官方認(rèn)定為失業(yè)人群,其中包括那些政府稱(chēng)在5月被錯(cuò)誤地劃分為在崗人群的數(shù)量,以及失去工作但并未尋找新工作的人。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家估計(jì),有3250萬(wàn)人失去了工作。
報(bào)告顯示,另有76萬(wàn)人上周通過(guò)一個(gè)針對(duì)個(gè)體戶(hù)和零工的新計(jì)劃,申請(qǐng)了失業(yè)救助金,也讓這些人第一次獲得了領(lǐng)取救助金的機(jī)會(huì)。這些數(shù)字并未根據(jù)季節(jié)性變化進(jìn)行調(diào)整,因此政府并未將他們納入官方統(tǒng)計(jì)的數(shù)字中。
最近其他一些數(shù)據(jù)更為鼓舞人心,它們顯示,關(guān)停令的放松已經(jīng)點(diǎn)燃了消費(fèi)者的需求。盡管大多數(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)依然遠(yuǎn)低于疫情前水平,但一些分析師質(zhì)問(wèn),最近獲得的進(jìn)步是否可以持續(xù),尤其是在病毒回歸的今天。
政府上周二稱(chēng),上個(gè)月的零售與餐廳銷(xiāo)售額躍升了近18%,同時(shí)也提到了前兩個(gè)月一些創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的跌幅。然而,零售購(gòu)買(mǎi)額與往年的差距依然達(dá)到了可觀(guān)的6%。
消費(fèi)支出出現(xiàn)一定程度反彈的一個(gè)重要原因在于政府的救助計(jì)劃,例如一次性的1200美元刺激性救助金以及一周600美元的聯(lián)邦補(bǔ)充失業(yè)救助金,這些都幫助抵消了被裁美國(guó)員工的收入損失。然而,幾乎所有的刺激性錢(qián)款都已經(jīng)發(fā)放完畢,而且聯(lián)邦補(bǔ)充失業(yè)救助金也將于7月31日到期。
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席杰羅姆?鮑威爾周二在向參議院委員會(huì)所做的證詞中稱(chēng):“最近,一些指標(biāo)顯示經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)正趨于穩(wěn)定,而且在某些領(lǐng)域出現(xiàn)了溫和反彈。”然而,“在公眾堅(jiān)信疾病得到控制之前,經(jīng)濟(jì)難以得到全面的恢復(fù)。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:馮豐
審校:夏林
Three months after the viral outbreak shut down businesses across the country, U.S. employers are still shedding jobs at a heavy rate, a trend that points to a slow and prolonged recovery from the recession.
The number of laid-off workers seeking unemployment benefits barely fell last week to 1.5 million, the government said Thursday. That was down from a peak of nearly 7 million in March, and it marked an 11th straight weekly drop. But the number is still more than twice the record high that existed before the pandemic. And the total number of people receiving jobless aid remains a lofty 20.5 million.
The figures surprised and disappointed analysts who had expected far fewer people to seek unemployment aid as states increasingly reopen their economies and businesses recall some laid-off people back to work. The data also raised concerns that some recent layoffs may reflect permanent losses as companies restructure their businesses, rather than temporary cuts in response to government-ordered closures.
The report is “telling us that the scars from the job losses in the recession will be longer-lasting than we expected,” said Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.
At the same time, Thursday's figures may have raised as many questions about the state of the job market as they answered. Jobless claims generally tracks the pace of layoffs. But they provide little information about how much hiring is occurring that would offset those losses. In May, for example, employers added 2.5 million jobs — an increase that caught analysts off-guard because the number of applications for unemployment aid was still so high.
Some likely factors help explain why applications for jobless benefits remain so high even as businesses increasingly reopen and rehire some laid-off workers. For one thing, many businesses that deal face-to-face with customers — from restaurants and movie theaters to gyms and casinos — remain strictly limited to less-than-full capacity. Some of those establishments are still cutting jobs as a result.
Casinos in Louisiana, for example, can open at half-capacity. But Boyd Gaming Corp., which operates five casinos in the state, has informed 1,500 of its workers that with financial losses mounting, they could be laid off by early July.
And in some especially hard-hit sectors, like the hotel and travel industries, corporations are now slashing white-collar workers because their business remains far below pre-pandemic levels. This week, Hilton Hotels said it would cut 22% of its corporate global workforce — about 2,100 jobs.
Although consumer spending, the primary driver of the U.S. economy, is recovering from its low in mid-April, it remains far below its pre-pandemic level, according to data compiled by Opportunity Insights. That trend may be forcing changes at some companies that managed to withstand the initial shutdowns. AT&T, for instance, said this week that it plans to cut 3,400 technical and clerical workers over the next few weeks. It also plans to permanently close 250 of its Mobility and Cricket Wireless stores.
“We’re starting to see more job losses among higher-skilled positions that are harder to recall," said Brad Hershbein, a senior economist at the Upjohn Institute.
And some states may still be clearing backlogs of applications from weeks or months ago.
Corinne Cook, who lives in Kissimmee, near Orlando, just received her first unemployment payment last week, after being laid-off from her job in mid-April. Cook, 28, moved to the area in September for an 18-month contract position as a 3-D modeler for Walt Disney, a job involving sculpting character prototypes that were printed on 3-D printers. She lost her job when the parks closed down.
She's receiving the minimum state unemployment benefit from Florida, $125 a week, because the state has no record of her prior earnings in New Jersey, even though she said she has uploaded, mailed and faxed her documents from her job there. If her previous earnings were properly credited, her state benefits would more than double. She is grateful, though, for the extra $600 in federal unemployment benefits, which have allowed her to pay some bills.
Dealing with the state's bureaucracy "was very stressful,” she said.
Daco of Oxford Economics said he still expects the June jobs report, to be released in early July, to show another hiring gain. But these figures will be particularly hard to forecast. Tens of millions of people may be flowing in and out of work each month, he noted, making it much more difficult to forecast where the job market is headed.
The jobs report for May had suggested that the damage might have bottomed out. The unemployment rate declined from 14.7% to a still-high 13.3%.
Even so, nearly 21 million people are officially classified as unemployed. And including people the government said had been erroneously categorized as employed in May and those who lost jobs but didn’t look for new ones, 32.5 million people are out of work, economists estimate.
Thursday’s report showed that an additional 760,000 people applied for jobless benefits last week under a new program for self-employed and gig workers that made them eligible for aid for the first time. These figures aren’t adjusted for seasonal variations, so the government doesn’t include them in the official count.
Other recent data have been more encouraging and suggest that the lifting of shutdown orders has sparked some pent-up demand from consumers. Most economic gauges remain far below their pre-pandemic levels, though, and some analysts question whether the recent gains can be sustained, especially if the virus were to surge back.
Last month, retail and restaurant sales jumped nearly 18%, the government said Tuesday, retracing some of the record plunges of the previous two months. Still, retail purchases remain a sizable 6% below their year-ago levels.
One key reason why consumer spending has somewhat rebounded is that government aid programs, from one-time $1,200 stimulus checks to $600-a-week in supplemental federal unemployment aid, have helped offset the loss of income for laid-off Americans. Yet nearly all the stimulus checks have been issued. And the supplemental federal jobless aid is set to expire July 31.
“Recently, some indicators have pointed to a stabilization, and in some areas a modest rebound, in economic activity,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Tuesday in testimony to a Senate committee. Yet “until the public is confident that the disease is contained, a full recovery is unlikely.”