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日本陷入衰退,但是比美國和加拿大強

經(jīng)濟學家認為,在日本的居家令徹底解除之前,無論政府向國民砸多少錢,都不會帶來報復性經(jīng)濟增長。

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受疫情影響,日本第一季度的經(jīng)濟表現(xiàn)已經(jīng)陷入技術(shù)意義上的衰退。在未來,如果日本每家每戶繼續(xù)縮減生活必需品開支,各類企業(yè)繼續(xù)縮小對外投資規(guī)模,社會生產(chǎn)力和雇傭率持續(xù)低迷,這種衰退還會進一步加深。

日本內(nèi)閣府周一公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,2020年1月至3月,由于出口下滑、國民消費欲望走低,日本國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)扣除物價因素后環(huán)比下降0.9%,按年率計算降幅為3.4%,略好于預期的4.5%。

繼去年第四季度GDP按年率計算下滑7.3%后,日本已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)連續(xù)兩個季度的GDP負增長。日本經(jīng)濟學者及內(nèi)閣官員一致認為,更嚴重的經(jīng)濟萎縮還將出現(xiàn)在今年第二季度。

日本首相安倍晉三于4月宣布全國進入緊急狀態(tài),但兩個季度的GDP雙連降,證實了這個全球第三大經(jīng)濟體在進入緊急狀態(tài)前就已經(jīng)陷入衰退。分析師預計,在未來三個月里,日本經(jīng)濟還將萎縮21.5%,創(chuàng)下自1955年以來的最低紀錄。

“毫無疑問,下一個季度的情況還會一落千丈。”農(nóng)林中金總和研究所(Norinchukin Research Institute)的經(jīng)濟學者南武志說,“很多企業(yè)的現(xiàn)金流很緊張,導致商業(yè)投資還是會疲軟,大量員工會擔憂自己的薪資問題?!?/p>

這場危機迫使日本政府緊急出臺了總計達117萬億日元(1.1萬億美元)的經(jīng)濟刺激政策,總額占了其當季GDP的20%,堪稱史無前例。

更多扶持計劃

數(shù)據(jù)一經(jīng)發(fā)布,日本經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)業(yè)大臣西村康稔就表示,政府會迅速出臺第二輪經(jīng)濟刺激計劃,繼續(xù)留出一部分的財政預算用于扶持國民經(jīng)濟,這些新資金將作為中小企業(yè)的租金津貼以及未裁員公司的薪酬補助。然而,這項計劃距離日本上一輪的財政撥款才剛剛過去了幾個星期,勢必意味著日本在今后會背負巨額的國債。

隨著財政支出的不斷增加,日本央行在上月上調(diào)了政府債券的購買上限。預計該行最早可能會在本周的緊急會議上,再推出另一項針對中小企業(yè)的貸款計劃。

盡管危機四伏,但日本截至目前的表現(xiàn)還是要優(yōu)于美國和加拿大。第一季度,美國GDP的跌幅為4.8%,下一季度,美國和加拿大的GDP跌幅預計超過25%。

近期,日本的疫情狀況也慢慢趨于平穩(wěn)。除了東京和一些人口密集的經(jīng)濟中心以外,日本47個都道府縣中已經(jīng)有39個解除了緊急狀態(tài)。

至于日本新一輪的經(jīng)濟刺激政策是否能行之有效,尚有待觀察。根據(jù)日生基礎(chǔ)研究所(NLI)經(jīng)濟學家齊藤太郎的說法,在日本的居家令徹底解除之前,無論政府向國民砸多少錢,都不會帶來報復性經(jīng)濟增長。

“現(xiàn)在最重要的是花錢減低國民失業(yè)率和企業(yè)破產(chǎn)率?!饼R藤太郎說道,“我們還沒有走到能夠通過央行的貨幣寬松政策提振經(jīng)濟的階段,日本央行下一步要做的是幫助企業(yè)融資。”

貿(mào)易出口下滑

貿(mào)易出口一直都是日本經(jīng)濟增長的主要動力,但現(xiàn)在日本政府所能做出的改善微乎其微。由于疫情形勢的不明朗,幾大海外市場的復業(yè)時斷時續(xù)。

從內(nèi)閣府周一公布的數(shù)據(jù)來看,第一季度日本的非年化出口額下跌了6%。根據(jù)一些依賴出口的汽車制造商和其他廠商的業(yè)績預測,下一季度出口額的降幅會更加巨大。日本最大的車企豐田汽車預計本公司這一財年的利潤將會下滑80%。

在日本國內(nèi)市場方面,經(jīng)濟學者南武志認為,即便是在緊急狀態(tài)全部解除之后,出于企業(yè)對經(jīng)營利潤以及員工對薪酬變動的擔憂,國民消費也不會很快回暖。第一季度,日本國民個人消費支出下滑了0.7%,未來只會更加糟糕。

此外,游客的減少也令日本喪失了另一大主要經(jīng)濟來源。第一季度,日本境外游客消費金額的跌幅達到42%之多,以后的日子也不容樂觀。(財富中文網(wǎng))

編譯:陳怡軒

受疫情影響,日本第一季度的經(jīng)濟表現(xiàn)已經(jīng)陷入技術(shù)意義上的衰退。在未來,如果日本每家每戶繼續(xù)縮減生活必需品開支,各類企業(yè)繼續(xù)縮小對外投資規(guī)模,社會生產(chǎn)力和雇傭率持續(xù)低迷,這種衰退還會進一步加深。

日本內(nèi)閣府周一公布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,2020年1月至3月,由于出口下滑、國民消費欲望走低,日本國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)扣除物價因素后環(huán)比下降0.9%,按年率計算降幅為3.4%,略好于預期的4.5%。

繼去年第四季度GDP按年率計算下滑7.3%后,日本已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)連續(xù)兩個季度的GDP負增長。日本經(jīng)濟學者及內(nèi)閣官員一致認為,更嚴重的經(jīng)濟萎縮還將出現(xiàn)在今年第二季度。

日本首相安倍晉三于4月宣布全國進入緊急狀態(tài),但兩個季度的GDP雙連降,證實了這個全球第三大經(jīng)濟體在進入緊急狀態(tài)前就已經(jīng)陷入衰退。分析師預計,在未來三個月里,日本經(jīng)濟還將萎縮21.5%,創(chuàng)下自1955年以來的最低紀錄。

“毫無疑問,下一個季度的情況還會一落千丈。”農(nóng)林中金總和研究所(Norinchukin Research Institute)的經(jīng)濟學者南武志說,“很多企業(yè)的現(xiàn)金流很緊張,導致商業(yè)投資還是會疲軟,大量員工會擔憂自己的薪資問題。”

這場危機迫使日本政府緊急出臺了總計達117萬億日元(1.1萬億美元)的經(jīng)濟刺激政策,總額占了其當季GDP的20%,堪稱史無前例。

更多扶持計劃

數(shù)據(jù)一經(jīng)發(fā)布,日本經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)業(yè)大臣西村康稔就表示,政府會迅速出臺第二輪經(jīng)濟刺激計劃,繼續(xù)留出一部分的財政預算用于扶持國民經(jīng)濟,這些新資金將作為中小企業(yè)的租金津貼以及未裁員公司的薪酬補助。然而,這項計劃距離日本上一輪的財政撥款才剛剛過去了幾個星期,勢必意味著日本在今后會背負巨額的國債。

隨著財政支出的不斷增加,日本央行在上月上調(diào)了政府債券的購買上限。預計該行最早可能會在本周的緊急會議上,再推出另一項針對中小企業(yè)的貸款計劃。

盡管危機四伏,但日本截至目前的表現(xiàn)還是要優(yōu)于美國和加拿大。第一季度,美國GDP的跌幅為4.8%,下一季度,美國和加拿大的GDP跌幅預計超過25%。

近期,日本的疫情狀況也慢慢趨于平穩(wěn)。除了東京和一些人口密集的經(jīng)濟中心以外,日本47個都道府縣中已經(jīng)有39個解除了緊急狀態(tài)。

至于日本新一輪的經(jīng)濟刺激政策是否能行之有效,尚有待觀察。根據(jù)日生基礎(chǔ)研究所(NLI)經(jīng)濟學家齊藤太郎的說法,在日本的居家令徹底解除之前,無論政府向國民砸多少錢,都不會帶來報復性經(jīng)濟增長。

“現(xiàn)在最重要的是花錢減低國民失業(yè)率和企業(yè)破產(chǎn)率。”齊藤太郎說道,“我們還沒有走到能夠通過央行的貨幣寬松政策提振經(jīng)濟的階段,日本央行下一步要做的是幫助企業(yè)融資?!?/p>

貿(mào)易出口下滑

貿(mào)易出口一直都是日本經(jīng)濟增長的主要動力,但現(xiàn)在日本政府所能做出的改善微乎其微。由于疫情形勢的不明朗,幾大海外市場的復業(yè)時斷時續(xù)。

從內(nèi)閣府周一公布的數(shù)據(jù)來看,第一季度日本的非年化出口額下跌了6%。根據(jù)一些依賴出口的汽車制造商和其他廠商的業(yè)績預測,下一季度出口額的降幅會更加巨大。日本最大的車企豐田汽車預計本公司這一財年的利潤將會下滑80%。

在日本國內(nèi)市場方面,經(jīng)濟學者南武志認為,即便是在緊急狀態(tài)全部解除之后,出于企業(yè)對經(jīng)營利潤以及員工對薪酬變動的擔憂,國民消費也不會很快回暖。第一季度,日本國民個人消費支出下滑了0.7%,未來只會更加糟糕。

此外,游客的減少也令日本喪失了另一大主要經(jīng)濟來源。第一季度,日本境外游客消費金額的跌幅達到42%之多,以后的日子也不容樂觀。(財富中文網(wǎng))

編譯:陳怡軒

Japan’s economy sank last quarter into a recession that’s likely to deepen further as households limit spending to essentials and companies cut investment, production and hiring to stay afloat amid the coronavirus pandemic.

Gross domestic product shrank an annualized 3.4% in the three months through March from the previous quarter as exports slid and social distancing crimped consumer spending, Cabinet Office figures showed Monday. On a non-annualized basis, the economy shrank 0.9% from the fourth quarter.

While the result was slightly better than an expected 4.5% drop, helped by a downgrade of the previous quarter’s contraction, economists and policy makers agree that worse is in store in the current quarter.

Two consecutive quarters of shrinking GDP confirm that the world’s third-largest economy fell into a recession even before Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s April declaration of national emergency. Analysts see a 21.5% contraction in the three months through June, a record for official data going back to 1955.

“There’s no doubt that this quarter has gotten much worse,” said economist Takeshi Minami at Norinchukin Research Institute. “Companies are struggling to secure funding and that suggests business investment will remain weak and many workers are concerned about their wages.”

The crisis has put pressure on policy makers to step up stimulus measures that, at a record 117 trillion yen ($1.1 trillion), already total more than 20% of GDP.

More Aid

Economy Minister Yasutoshi Nishimura, speaking Monday after the GDP report, said government is aiming to pass a second extra budget swiftly to get more aid to the economy.

The new money, coming only weeks after the passage of a first supplementary budget, is expected to provide rent support for small businesses and bigger subsidies for firms that don’t fire workers. It will also add to the developed world’s heaviest public debt burden.

The Bank of Japan last month lifted its ceiling on government bond purchases as the government ramps up spending. The BOJ is also expected to introduce another lending program for small companies at an emergency meeting that could come as early as this week.

Despite the rising sense of crisis, Japan so far appears to be doing less badly than other major economies. The U.S. and Canada are both forecast to shrink more than 25% this quarter, while the U.S. contracted 4.8% in the first three months of the year.

In recent days, rates of new virus infections have plunged in Japan and the government last week lifted its state of emergency for 39 of Japan’s 47 prefectures, although Tokyo and other dense economic centers still remain under heavy restrictions.

Until stay-at-home requests are lifted, policy makers won’t be able to spur growth no matter how much money is spent, according to economist Taro Saito at NLI Research Institute.

“For now, they have to spend money to prevent job losses and bankruptcies,” Saito said. “We’re not at a stage where the Bank of Japan can boost demand with monetary easing, and the BOJ will focus on corporate financing for now.”

Export Slide

Japan’s policy makers also have little control over the world’s demand for the country’s exports, a main driver of growth that could stay depressed for a long time. Even though key overseas markets are starting to reopen from lockdowns, progress will come in fits and starts, with the risk of new infection waves looming

Monday’s report showed exports dropped 6% last quarter on a non-annualized basis, but earnings forecasts from automakers and other manufacturers suggest the decline is likely to steepen. Toyota Motor Corp., Japan’s largest company, sees profits tumbling 80% this fiscal year

On the domestic side, spending isn’t likely to pick up quickly even after the state of emergency because of the bleak outlook for corporate profits and also wages, according to Norinchukin economist Minami. Last quarter, private consumption slid 0.7% with worse likely ahead.

Dwindling numbers of foreign tourists, whose spending has been a key prop to growth in recent years, is another major concern. Spending by visitors from overseas slid 42% last quarter, according to the Japan Tourism Agency, and the drop is likely to have worsened since.

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