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新冠疫情之后,航空公司將“縮水”求生

DAVID MEYER
2020-04-13

人們會重新開始旅行,但新冠危機后的經(jīng)濟、旅游業(yè)和旅客需求將發(fā)生變化。

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航空界開始信奉一個新理念:小即是好。

第一個采取了明確動作的是漢莎航空。漢莎上周二宣布:公司已將機隊規(guī)模縮減了約十分之一,同時關(guān)閉了旗下一家低成本子公司——德國之翼。盡管這些舉措的起因是新冠病毒危機,但疫情結(jié)束后,疫情對航空業(yè)的影響或許還將持續(xù)很長一段時間。

“完全解除全球旅行限制需要數(shù)月時間,而全球航空飛行需求恢復(fù)到危機前水平則需要數(shù)年。”漢莎航空在一份聲明中表示,“基于上述判斷,執(zhí)行委員會今天決定采取措施,長期縮減航班運力和管理資源。”

類似的舉措必然還會出現(xiàn)。

德國管理咨詢公司h&z的航空業(yè)主管邁克爾·桑托表示,“至少在未來5年”,這種“小即是好”的思維將主導(dǎo)整個航空業(yè),而這對于航空業(yè)巨頭而言可能是有利的。

運營費用降低

“航空公司已經(jīng)意識到,他們現(xiàn)在應(yīng)該拒絕復(fù)雜,告別大規(guī)模。就算沒有新冠肺炎危機,這可能也是他們所有人必須考慮的一個問題。”桑托上周三表示,“對大多數(shù)傳統(tǒng)航空公司而言,日常運營和管理費用太高了。特別是和低成本航空公司相比,很大一部分利潤都花在了這些費用上。油價下跌時還能支撐,但一旦油價上漲,就沒什么利潤能用于這些天價管理費了。”

由于新冠病毒疫情導(dǎo)致的飛行限制,漢莎航空目前763架飛機中有700架處于閑置狀態(tài)。但其實在新冠病毒爆發(fā)前,該公司就已經(jīng)計劃將旗下不同品牌重組為一個運營單位——現(xiàn)在不過是 “加速”了重組進程。而漢莎旗下的奧地利航空和布魯塞爾航空現(xiàn)有的重組計劃也將“進一步升級”,削減機隊。

作為漢莎航空幸存的廉價品牌,歐洲之翼是也將砍掉10架空客A320。支線航空公司漢莎城際航空將砍掉三架空客A340 -300。

而漢莎航空本身將有18架飛機永久退役,包括:6架空客A380、7架A340 -600、5架波音747-400。漢莎集團表示,幾年前就已經(jīng)在計劃將A380飛機賣回給空客,而其它飛機則“由于這些機型環(huán)境和經(jīng)濟上的缺點”遭到淘汰。

訂單問題

漢莎航空旗下的瑞士國際航空機隊規(guī)模也將被削減,部分是通過將新飛機訂單延期來實現(xiàn)。

易捷航空的創(chuàng)始人、最大股東斯泰利奧斯·哈伊-約安努希望本公司也采取類似舉措。

易捷航空有一筆107架空客飛機的訂單,價值56億美元,而哈伊-約安努正竭力推動取消這筆訂單。上周三,他信誓旦旦地表示,如果訂單通過,他將“親自起訴”該航空公司的管理層,而他在上周初的一封公開信中已經(jīng)闡述了自己的理由。信中警告說,如果這筆訂單繼續(xù),易捷航空將在“2020年8月左右(甚至更早)耗盡資金”,因為那些認為航空業(yè)將在夏季完成反彈的想法“盲目樂觀”。

“無論是哪一種形式的國際旅行,人們的行為已經(jīng)完全被恐懼支配。”哈伊-約安努寫道,“無論是哪個國家,在國內(nèi)封鎖措施結(jié)束后,都會繼續(xù)閉關(guān)鎖國很長一段時間。我認為,在全國封鎖期結(jié)束后,易捷航空的情況會更像是一家剛成立的公司,試圖找到幾條能同時盈利的航班航線。”

精簡

關(guān)于航空公司實施機構(gòu)精簡,其實早有跡象。3月下旬,旅游網(wǎng)站the Points Guy報道,達美航空(Delta)首席財務(wù)官保羅·雅各布森告訴員工,這家美國航空公司在新冠病毒危機“過后將減小規(guī)模”。多篇報告顯示,待意大利政府完成意大利航空的國有化開始復(fù)飛之時,該航司的機隊規(guī)模也將縮減至目前的四分之一。

獨立航空運輸咨詢公司JLS的主管約翰·斯特里克蘭上周三表示,由于機隊數(shù)量縮減、整合,再加上一些航空公司“徹底失敗”,航空業(yè)運力下降的情況可能會存在相當(dāng)長一段時間。

斯特里克蘭指出,一些航空公司可能會選擇“維持航班數(shù)量,使用小飛機執(zhí)飛”的策略,這種策略或許可以在削減運營開支的同時,保住重要樞紐機場寶貴的航班時段。然而,這個目標(biāo)也不總是能實現(xiàn)。以漢莎航空為例,該公司在上周二的聲明中表示,公司精簡后將減少在法蘭克福和慕尼黑等關(guān)鍵樞紐港口的運力。

值得注意的是,空客上周三表示,它將減產(chǎn)三分之一,以“適應(yīng)新冠病毒疫情中新的市場環(huán)境”。

漢莎航空公司旗下的奧地利航空上周二在聲明中表示,預(yù)計今年夏季的需求將是去年同期的四分之一到二分之一之間,“最早要到2023年”才會恢復(fù)“新冠前水平”。

“我們要飛往的世界將是一個不同的世界。”奧地利航空首席執(zhí)行官亞歷克西斯·馮·荷恩布里希說,“人們會重新開始旅行,但新冠危機后的經(jīng)濟、旅游業(yè)和旅客需求將發(fā)生變化。我們的公司要攜手應(yīng)對挑戰(zhàn)。”

“目前的停擺不是‘告別’,而是‘再見’。”(財富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:Agatha

航空界開始信奉一個新理念:小即是好。

第一個采取了明確動作的是漢莎航空。漢莎上周二宣布:公司已將機隊規(guī)模縮減了約十分之一,同時關(guān)閉了旗下一家低成本子公司——德國之翼。盡管這些舉措的起因是新冠病毒危機,但疫情結(jié)束后,疫情對航空業(yè)的影響或許還將持續(xù)很長一段時間。

“完全解除全球旅行限制需要數(shù)月時間,而全球航空飛行需求恢復(fù)到危機前水平則需要數(shù)年。”漢莎航空在一份聲明中表示,“基于上述判斷,執(zhí)行委員會今天決定采取措施,長期縮減航班運力和管理資源。”

類似的舉措必然還會出現(xiàn)。

德國管理咨詢公司h&z的航空業(yè)主管邁克爾·桑托表示,“至少在未來5年”,這種“小即是好”的思維將主導(dǎo)整個航空業(yè),而這對于航空業(yè)巨頭而言可能是有利的。

運營費用降低

“航空公司已經(jīng)意識到,他們現(xiàn)在應(yīng)該拒絕復(fù)雜,告別大規(guī)模。就算沒有新冠肺炎危機,這可能也是他們所有人必須考慮的一個問題。”桑托上周三表示,“對大多數(shù)傳統(tǒng)航空公司而言,日常運營和管理費用太高了。特別是和低成本航空公司相比,很大一部分利潤都花在了這些費用上。油價下跌時還能支撐,但一旦油價上漲,就沒什么利潤能用于這些天價管理費了。”

由于新冠病毒疫情導(dǎo)致的飛行限制,漢莎航空目前763架飛機中有700架處于閑置狀態(tài)。但其實在新冠病毒爆發(fā)前,該公司就已經(jīng)計劃將旗下不同品牌重組為一個運營單位——現(xiàn)在不過是 “加速”了重組進程。而漢莎旗下的奧地利航空和布魯塞爾航空現(xiàn)有的重組計劃也將“進一步升級”,削減機隊。

作為漢莎航空幸存的廉價品牌,歐洲之翼是也將砍掉10架空客A320。支線航空公司漢莎城際航空將砍掉三架空客A340 -300。

而漢莎航空本身將有18架飛機永久退役,包括:6架空客A380、7架A340 -600、5架波音747-400。漢莎集團表示,幾年前就已經(jīng)在計劃將A380飛機賣回給空客,而其它飛機則“由于這些機型環(huán)境和經(jīng)濟上的缺點”遭到淘汰。

訂單問題

漢莎航空旗下的瑞士國際航空機隊規(guī)模也將被削減,部分是通過將新飛機訂單延期來實現(xiàn)。

易捷航空的創(chuàng)始人、最大股東斯泰利奧斯·哈伊-約安努希望本公司也采取類似舉措。

易捷航空有一筆107架空客飛機的訂單,價值56億美元,而哈伊-約安努正竭力推動取消這筆訂單。上周三,他信誓旦旦地表示,如果訂單通過,他將“親自起訴”該航空公司的管理層,而他在上周初的一封公開信中已經(jīng)闡述了自己的理由。信中警告說,如果這筆訂單繼續(xù),易捷航空將在“2020年8月左右(甚至更早)耗盡資金”,因為那些認為航空業(yè)將在夏季完成反彈的想法“盲目樂觀”。

“無論是哪一種形式的國際旅行,人們的行為已經(jīng)完全被恐懼支配。”哈伊-約安努寫道,“無論是哪個國家,在國內(nèi)封鎖措施結(jié)束后,都會繼續(xù)閉關(guān)鎖國很長一段時間。我認為,在全國封鎖期結(jié)束后,易捷航空的情況會更像是一家剛成立的公司,試圖找到幾條能同時盈利的航班航線。”

精簡

關(guān)于航空公司實施機構(gòu)精簡,其實早有跡象。3月下旬,旅游網(wǎng)站the Points Guy報道,達美航空(Delta)首席財務(wù)官保羅·雅各布森告訴員工,這家美國航空公司在新冠病毒危機“過后將減小規(guī)模”。多篇報告顯示,待意大利政府完成意大利航空的國有化開始復(fù)飛之時,該航司的機隊規(guī)模也將縮減至目前的四分之一。

獨立航空運輸咨詢公司JLS的主管約翰·斯特里克蘭上周三表示,由于機隊數(shù)量縮減、整合,再加上一些航空公司“徹底失敗”,航空業(yè)運力下降的情況可能會存在相當(dāng)長一段時間。

斯特里克蘭指出,一些航空公司可能會選擇“維持航班數(shù)量,使用小飛機執(zhí)飛”的策略,這種策略或許可以在削減運營開支的同時,保住重要樞紐機場寶貴的航班時段。然而,這個目標(biāo)也不總是能實現(xiàn)。以漢莎航空為例,該公司在上周二的聲明中表示,公司精簡后將減少在法蘭克福和慕尼黑等關(guān)鍵樞紐港口的運力。

值得注意的是,空客上周三表示,它將減產(chǎn)三分之一,以“適應(yīng)新冠病毒疫情中新的市場環(huán)境”。

漢莎航空公司旗下的奧地利航空上周二在聲明中表示,預(yù)計今年夏季的需求將是去年同期的四分之一到二分之一之間,“最早要到2023年”才會恢復(fù)“新冠前水平”。

“我們要飛往的世界將是一個不同的世界。”奧地利航空首席執(zhí)行官亞歷克西斯·馮·荷恩布里希說,“人們會重新開始旅行,但新冠危機后的經(jīng)濟、旅游業(yè)和旅客需求將發(fā)生變化。我們的公司要攜手應(yīng)對挑戰(zhàn)。”

“目前的停擺不是‘告別’,而是‘再見’。”(財富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:Agatha

The giants of the airline industry may have a new business mantra: Smaller is better.

First to make the move explicit: Lufthansa, which has reduced its fleet size by around a tenth and shuttered one of its low-cost subsidiaries, Germanwings. The moves, announced Tuesday, were prompted by the coronavirus crisis—but their effects may last way beyond it.

“It will take months until the global travel restrictions are completely lifted and years until the worldwide demand for air travel returns to pre-crisis levels,” Lufthansa said in a statement. “Based on this evaluation, today the Executive Board has decided on extensive measures to reduce the capacity of flight operations and administration long term.”

Expect to see more of this.

According to Michael Santo, head of aviation at the German management consultancy h&z, this smaller-is-better mentality will pervade in the industry “for at least the next five years”—and for the giants of the industry, that may have an upside.

Lower overheads

“The industry is realizing that size and complexity is something they can now get rid of. It’s probably a topic they all have to consider whether there is a corona crisis or not,” Santo said Wednesday. “The overhead and administration cost for a conventional or legacy airline is far too high for most of these airlines. Especially compared to low-cost airlines, a big portion of the margin is going into that. It works when the oil price is down, but as soon as the oil price increases, you don’t have the margin left to finance these huge administrative overheads.”

The Lufthansa group currently has 700 of its 763 planes sitting idle, due to the coronavirus travel restrictions. But even before the Covid-19 pandemic struck, it had already been planning to restructure its various brands into one operational unit—now that process is just being “accelerated”, while existing restructuring programs at its Austrian Airlines and Brussels Airlines subsidiaries are being “further intensified” with fleet reductions.

Eurowings, Lufthansa’s surviving budget brand, will shed 10 Airbus A320s (the Germanwings brand was folded into Eurowings some five years ago, but Germanwings-registered planes continued to operate some Eurowings routes until this week.) The regional carrier Lufthansa Cityline will lose three Airbus A340-300s.

At Lufthansa itself, 18 planes are being permanently decommissioned: six Airbus A380s, seven A340-600s, and five Boeing 747-400s. Lufthansa had already planned to sell the A380s back to Airbus a couple years from now, while the others are being retired “based on the environmental as well as economic disadvantages of these aircraft types,” the group said.

Order issues

Lufthansa-owned Swiss International Air Lines will also see a fleet-size reduction, but that will come at least partly through the delaying of new plane orders.

Stelios Haji-Ioannou, the founder of and largest shareholder in easyJet, wants to see similar action taken at that carrier.

EasyJet has a $5.6 billion order in for 107 Airbus planes, and Haji-Ioannou is desperately trying to get it cancelled. On Wednesday he swore to “personally sue” the airline’s management if the order goes through, but he had already set out his reasoning in an open letter at the start of the week. The letter warned that easyJet would “run out of money around August 2020, perhaps even earlier” if the deal is maintained, because it is “wildly optimistic” to assume that air travel will bounce back during the summer.

“Fear has now taken over human behavior when it comes to any form of foreign travel,” Haji-Ioannou wrote. “Each country will want to keep others out for much longer than the date that their own local national lockdown ends. I think that easyJet at the end of national lockdowns will feel more like a start-up trying to find a few profitable routes for a few aircraft at a time.”

Slimming down

These are not the first signs of airlines heading for a more slimmed-down future. In late March, the travel website The Points Guy reported that Delta chief financial officer Paul Jacobson had told employees the U.S. carrier was “going to be smaller coming out of” the coronavirus crisis. And multiplereports suggested Alitalia’s fleet would be a quarter of its current size when the Italian government relaunches it post-nationalization.

John Strickland, the director of independent air transport consultancy JLS, said Wednesday that the aviation industry was likely to have less capacity for quite some time, due to a combination of fleet reductions, consolidation and the “out and out failures” of some airlines.

Strickland noted that some airlines might choose to “keep operating a similar number of flights but with smaller aircraft”—a strategy that may allow them to maintain their valuable slots at major hubs while cutting operational expenditure. However, that won’t always be possible. Lufthansa, for example, said in its Tuesday statement that its downsizing would reduce its capacity at the crucial Frankfurt and Munich hubs.

Notably, Airbus said Wednesday that it was slashing production by a third “to adapt to the new coronavirus market environment.”

In a separate statement to that of its parent, Lufthansa’s Austrian Airlines said Tuesday that it expected demand this summer to be somewhere between a quarter and half of that a year ago, and a “pre-corona level” of demand wouldn’t arrive until “2023 at the earliest”.

“The world we will be flying into will be a different one,” said Austrian Airlines CEO Alexis von Hoensbroech. “People will travel again, but the economy, tourism and passenger needs will have changed after the Corona crisis. We will align our company to master this challenge.”

“The current shutdown is not a ‘goodbye’ but a ‘see you later’.”

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