新冠疫情蔓延之下,多國政府大舉干預經濟似乎已成定局。盡管具體細節仍有待敲定,但應當可以限制疫情對經濟產生的嚴重影響。
但疫情的影響究竟有多嚴重呢?圣路易斯聯邦儲備銀行總裁詹姆斯·布拉德在上周日(3月22日)舉例說,美國第二季度經濟產出或將減少一半,進而導致失業率飆升。
世界各國的決策者和央行行長可能會想盡一切辦法挽救經濟,例如不限量購買債券、降息、補貼薪水、推行免稅期、發放現金等,但人們仍然擔心,這類舉措是否真能讓國家最終走出困境。
就目前而言,以下是幾項討論最激烈、也是爭議最大的措施。
財政援助
僅在上周,美國總統特朗普就表示愿意為遭受重創的航空業提供救助。而在12年前強烈反對援助通用汽車公司的白宮經濟顧問拉里·庫德洛也承認,政府此次會考慮入股挽救相關公司。
法國總統馬克龍承諾,不會有公司因為新冠疫情而破產,法國財長布魯諾·勒梅爾則公開表示可能會將部分企業國有化;德國出臺了價值1萬億歐元的一攬子計劃,其中有1000億歐元(約合7674億元人民幣)可用于購買陷入困境的企業的股權;另據英國《金融時報》報道,英國也在考慮為三大航空集團注資。
目前,航空公司每月虧損高達100億美元,為其注資的提議難免最受輿論關注,同時也激起了最高的政治熱度。一些人指責波音等航空公司重蹈華爾街在2008年危機來臨前的覆轍,在經濟繁榮時期提取了太多的現金,導致資金儲備不足,無法應對經濟低迷的走勢。
雙線資本公司債券領域專家杰弗里·岡拉克上周在推特上發文稱:“如果政府決定為那些舉債過度的公司提供財政援助,美國人民是不會答應的。這些公司通過在歷史高位回購股票,使得眾多高管和對沖基金投資者從中獲益。”
不過,TS Lombard公司首席美國經濟學家史蒂文·布利茨認為,這種分析過于簡單化了。他在接受《財富》專訪時表示:“債務是一種便宜得多的資本形式,所以(公司)這么做無可厚非。”批評人士需要認識到,如此高難度的資產運作背后,有來自公共和私人養老基金等各方股東的壓力。他指出:“經濟體并沒有產生投資者償還自身債務所需的股本回報率……所以純粹將其歸結于道德風險是不公平的。”
戰略儲備
然而急需政府出手紓困的遠不止少數幾家航空公司,而且它們面臨的困難各不相同。由于石油需求大幅減少,美國政府上周已向遭到重創的石油和天然氣行業伸出援手,承諾為國內戰略石油儲備采購7700萬桶原本銷路堪憂的石油。
這一舉措僅撥款20多億美元,對石油行業而言無疑是杯水車薪。截至上周日晚,美國國會仍在就一項由參議院共和黨人起草、價值超過1萬億美元的一攬子刺激計劃爭執不下。在上周,美國國會已通過了一項價值5000億美元的一攬子計劃。
直接注資?
多數情況下,直接注資是政府采取的最后一種手段。至少在歐洲,政府首先會對企業債務提供擔保,輔以監管措施,確保銀行不會降低困難企業的信貸額度。本周,德國起草的一項預算法案擬提供超過5500億歐元的政府貸款,這一數字超過了德國所有銀行對企業貸款的三分之一。
如果信貸質量保持不變,擔保舉措對政府財政的現金影響微乎其微。而只有經濟在疫情消退后迅速反彈,就像很多人期望的那樣,信貸質量才有可能保持穩定。美國和中國等國推出的放松會計規則措施也是如此。
減稅與薪資補貼
一旦政府延長了繳稅期限(例如美國、法國和英國出臺的措施),其資金投入規模就相當龐大。而假如政府決定出手幫助失去收入的員工,或者阻止企業因為業務萎縮而裁員,那么所需的成本就更高。上周五(3月20日),英國政府公布了一項計劃,將幫助企業支付因疫情無法工作的員工最多80%的工資,每月不超過2500英鎊(約合2.07萬元人民幣)。這也意味著每100萬員工每月最多將耗費35億英鎊。相比之下,據多家媒體報道,德國勞動部預計全國將有215萬人通過現有渠道尋求薪資補貼。美國國會目前仍在為具體補貼力度爭論不休。
參議院共和黨人將竭盡全力,阻止美國像歐洲各國計劃的那樣,直接向企業和工人發放薪資補貼。然而隨著時間推移,美國的政策正在不斷向歐洲靠攏。
回購債券和公司債務
本周一,美聯儲宣布了最新一輪無限量化寬松行動,計劃購買5000億美元美國國債和2000億美元住房抵押貸款支持證券,這將對信貸緊缺的企業和市政當局起到巨大提振作用。這一行動也與歐洲央行推出的7500億歐元量化寬松計劃相似,后者對企業較為友好。美聯儲不得“挑選贏家”,但即使在新冠疫情爆發之前,歐洲央行的量化寬松計劃就可以讓諸如奢侈集團LVMH這樣的巨頭,用實質上免費的資金收購蒂芙尼公司。
為了讓企業維持運轉,政府本能的反應無論多么自然,最終難免會產生各種問題。瑞銀環球資產管理首席經濟學家保羅·多諾萬上周在一檔播客節目中指出,法國總統馬克龍的承諾有效維持了數以千計本應離開市場的企業的生計(去年法國共有5.2萬家公司破產)。如今英國和德國的納稅人可能會懷疑,10年前政府用他們的錢救助蘇格蘭皇家銀行和德國商業銀行的行為是否明智。
然而,現在沒有人會理睬那些敢于指出此類風險的人。奧地利央行行長羅伯特·霍爾茨曼上周警告稱,此類措施會抵消經濟衰退帶來的“凈化效應”。他援引奧地利學派重要人物約瑟夫·熊彼特的理論,認為經濟衰退的“創造性破壞力”會在長遠上促進經濟健康。結果歐洲央行不但發表了一份聲明,反駁他在另一次采訪中所說的話,還在24小時內推出了7500億歐元的安撫計劃。
德國左傾報紙《時代》周報駐歐洲央行記者馬克·席里茨尖銳地指出:“奧地利學派在這場危機期間應該歇一歇了。”(財富中文網)
譯者:智竑
新冠疫情蔓延之下,多國政府大舉干預經濟似乎已成定局。盡管具體細節仍有待敲定,但應當可以限制疫情對經濟產生的嚴重影響。
但疫情的影響究竟有多嚴重呢?圣路易斯聯邦儲備銀行總裁詹姆斯·布拉德在上周日(3月22日)舉例說,美國第二季度經濟產出或將減少一半,進而導致失業率飆升。
世界各國的決策者和央行行長可能會想盡一切辦法挽救經濟,例如不限量購買債券、降息、補貼薪水、推行免稅期、發放現金等,但人們仍然擔心,這類舉措是否真能讓國家最終走出困境。
就目前而言,以下是幾項討論最激烈、也是爭議最大的措施。
財政援助
僅在上周,美國總統特朗普就表示愿意為遭受重創的航空業提供救助。而在12年前強烈反對援助通用汽車公司的白宮經濟顧問拉里·庫德洛也承認,政府此次會考慮入股挽救相關公司。
法國總統馬克龍承諾,不會有公司因為新冠疫情而破產,法國財長布魯諾·勒梅爾則公開表示可能會將部分企業國有化;德國出臺了價值1萬億歐元的一攬子計劃,其中有1000億歐元(約合7674億元人民幣)可用于購買陷入困境的企業的股權;另據英國《金融時報》報道,英國也在考慮為三大航空集團注資。
目前,航空公司每月虧損高達100億美元,為其注資的提議難免最受輿論關注,同時也激起了最高的政治熱度。一些人指責波音等航空公司重蹈華爾街在2008年危機來臨前的覆轍,在經濟繁榮時期提取了太多的現金,導致資金儲備不足,無法應對經濟低迷的走勢。
雙線資本公司債券領域專家杰弗里·岡拉克上周在推特上發文稱:“如果政府決定為那些舉債過度的公司提供財政援助,美國人民是不會答應的。這些公司通過在歷史高位回購股票,使得眾多高管和對沖基金投資者從中獲益。”
不過,TS Lombard公司首席美國經濟學家史蒂文·布利茨認為,這種分析過于簡單化了。他在接受《財富》專訪時表示:“債務是一種便宜得多的資本形式,所以(公司)這么做無可厚非。”批評人士需要認識到,如此高難度的資產運作背后,有來自公共和私人養老基金等各方股東的壓力。他指出:“經濟體并沒有產生投資者償還自身債務所需的股本回報率……所以純粹將其歸結于道德風險是不公平的。”
戰略儲備
然而急需政府出手紓困的遠不止少數幾家航空公司,而且它們面臨的困難各不相同。由于石油需求大幅減少,美國政府上周已向遭到重創的石油和天然氣行業伸出援手,承諾為國內戰略石油儲備采購7700萬桶原本銷路堪憂的石油。
這一舉措僅撥款20多億美元,對石油行業而言無疑是杯水車薪。截至上周日晚,美國國會仍在就一項由參議院共和黨人起草、價值超過1萬億美元的一攬子刺激計劃爭執不下。在上周,美國國會已通過了一項價值5000億美元的一攬子計劃。
直接注資?
多數情況下,直接注資是政府采取的最后一種手段。至少在歐洲,政府首先會對企業債務提供擔保,輔以監管措施,確保銀行不會降低困難企業的信貸額度。本周,德國起草的一項預算法案擬提供超過5500億歐元的政府貸款,這一數字超過了德國所有銀行對企業貸款的三分之一。
如果信貸質量保持不變,擔保舉措對政府財政的現金影響微乎其微。而只有經濟在疫情消退后迅速反彈,就像很多人期望的那樣,信貸質量才有可能保持穩定。美國和中國等國推出的放松會計規則措施也是如此。
減稅與薪資補貼
一旦政府延長了繳稅期限(例如美國、法國和英國出臺的措施),其資金投入規模就相當龐大。而假如政府決定出手幫助失去收入的員工,或者阻止企業因為業務萎縮而裁員,那么所需的成本就更高。上周五(3月20日),英國政府公布了一項計劃,將幫助企業支付因疫情無法工作的員工最多80%的工資,每月不超過2500英鎊(約合2.07萬元人民幣)。這也意味著每100萬員工每月最多將耗費35億英鎊。相比之下,據多家媒體報道,德國勞動部預計全國將有215萬人通過現有渠道尋求薪資補貼。美國國會目前仍在為具體補貼力度爭論不休。
參議院共和黨人將竭盡全力,阻止美國像歐洲各國計劃的那樣,直接向企業和工人發放薪資補貼。然而隨著時間推移,美國的政策正在不斷向歐洲靠攏。
回購債券和公司債務
本周一,美聯儲宣布了最新一輪無限量化寬松行動,計劃購買5000億美元美國國債和2000億美元住房抵押貸款支持證券,這將對信貸緊缺的企業和市政當局起到巨大提振作用。這一行動也與歐洲央行推出的7500億歐元量化寬松計劃相似,后者對企業較為友好。美聯儲不得“挑選贏家”,但即使在新冠疫情爆發之前,歐洲央行的量化寬松計劃就可以讓諸如奢侈集團LVMH這樣的巨頭,用實質上免費的資金收購蒂芙尼公司。
為了讓企業維持運轉,政府本能的反應無論多么自然,最終難免會產生各種問題。瑞銀環球資產管理首席經濟學家保羅·多諾萬上周在一檔播客節目中指出,法國總統馬克龍的承諾有效維持了數以千計本應離開市場的企業的生計(去年法國共有5.2萬家公司破產)。如今英國和德國的納稅人可能會懷疑,10年前政府用他們的錢救助蘇格蘭皇家銀行和德國商業銀行的行為是否明智。
然而,現在沒有人會理睬那些敢于指出此類風險的人。奧地利央行行長羅伯特·霍爾茨曼上周警告稱,此類措施會抵消經濟衰退帶來的“凈化效應”。他援引奧地利學派重要人物約瑟夫·熊彼特的理論,認為經濟衰退的“創造性破壞力”會在長遠上促進經濟健康。結果歐洲央行不但發表了一份聲明,反駁他在另一次采訪中所說的話,還在24小時內推出了7500億歐元的安撫計劃。
德國左傾報紙《時代》周報駐歐洲央行記者馬克·席里茨尖銳地指出:“奧地利學派在這場危機期間應該歇一歇了。”(財富中文網)
譯者:智竑
The details are still to be hammered out, but it seems already a nailed-on certainty that one of the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic will be a big expansion of the state into the economy, both in the U.S. and farther afield.
That ought to limit the short-term impact of the virus, which will be severe. How severe, exactly? St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard, for one, said on Sunday that U.S. economic output could halve in the second quarter and send unemployment soaring.
But should policymakers and central bankers the world over throw the kitchen sink at the problem—think unlimited bond-buying, rate cuts, government financed wage supports, tax holidays, and cash handouts—such moves would raise uncomfortable questions about how the rich world digs itself out of the current hole in the longer term.
Until then, here are the most hotly discussed (and debated) options on the table.
Bailouts
In the last week alone, President Trump has flagged aid to the stricken airline industry, while White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow, who 12 years ago was fulminating against the bailout of General Motors, admitted that government equity injections are on the table this time around too.
In France, where President Emmanuel Macron has promised that no company will go bankrupt because of the virus, Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire has talked openly of nationalizing companies, while Germany has earmarked 100 billion euros of a 1-trillion-euro ($1.07 trillion) bundle of measures for equity investments in struggling firms. The U.K. is also considering injecting equity into three big airline groups, according to the?Financial Times.
Equity injections for the airlines, who are currently bleeding $10 billion a month, inevitably gain most attention and generate the most political heat. Some accuse Boeing and the airlines as repeating Wall Street’s mistakes ahead of the 2008 crisis, taking too much cash out of a cyclical industry during the boom, leaving it with too few reserves to handle a downturn.
“I don’t think government bailouts of overleveraged companies that got overleveraged via share buybacks at all-time highs, enriching executives and hedge fund investors, will sit well with the American people,” bond guru Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital said via Twitter last week.
However, Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist with TS Lombard, thinks such an analysis is oversimplistic.
“Debt is a much cheaper form of capital, so it makes sense [for companies] to do that,” Blitz told Fortune. Moreover, he said, critics need to accept that the pressure for such balance sheet acrobatics comes from all kinds of shareholders, including both public and private pension funds. “The economy is not generating the return on equity that investors need to meet their own liabilities…so to make it purely a moral hazard story is unfair.”
Strategic reserves
But the coming flood of bailouts goes well beyond a handful of airlines, and it takes many shapes. Already, last week the government put a supportive hand under an oil and gas industry hit hard by the collapse in demand for fuel, promising to buy 77 million barrels of oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve that otherwise could hardly be given away.
At a cost of just over $2 billion, that measure is small beer. On Sunday evening in Washington, D.C., Congress was still arguing over a stimulus package drafted by Senate Republicans with a sticker price of well over $1 trillion, which comes on top of a $500 billion package passed into law last week.
Direct equity injections?
In most cases, the equity injections are a last line of defense. In Europe at least, the first line is government guarantees of corporate debt, coupled with regulatory measures to ensure that banks don’t cut off lines of credit to stressed companies. A new German budget draft this week will include federal guarantees for over 550 billion euros—over one-third of all German banks’ lending to business.
Guarantees have a minimal cash impact on government finances if the credit quality holds, something that should be possible if—as many hope—the economy rebounds quickly when the virus recedes. The same is true of relaxing accounting rules such as the U.S. and China have done.
Tax relief and wage support
Things get more expensive when, for example, government waives tax deadlines, as the U.S., France, and the U.K. have all done. And they get more expensive still when government intervenes to support lost income for workers or to stop companies from laying staff off as their business dries up. The U.K. government said on Friday it will cover up to 80% of furloughed workers’ pay up to a maximum of 2,500 pounds ($2,900 a month)—a measure that could cost up to 3.5 billion pounds a month for every 1 million workers. For context, Germany’s Labor Ministry expects 2.15 million people to tap an existing facility for wage subsidies, according to various reports. Capitol Hill is still fighting over how far the U.S. should go in that direction.
Senate Republicans will do their best to keep an American plan free of direct wage supports, as the Europeans are plotting. And yet the U.S. and European approaches are beginning to look more similar by the day.
Buying bonds and corporate debt
The Federal Reserve’s latest unlimited quantitative easing program, unveiledon Monday, will see it buy $500 billion of Treasuries and $200 billion of agency commercial mortgage-backed securities, a huge boost for credit-strapped companies and municipalities. It follows a similar blueprint laid down by the European Central Bank’s 750 billion euro QE program, which is very business friendly. The Fed is not allowed to “pick winners,” whereas even before the coronavirus, the ECB’s QE program was helping the likes of luxury group LVMH to take over Tiffany & Co. with effectively free money.
The reflex to keep companies afloat—however natural—inevitably stores up trouble for a later day. Paul Donovan, chief economist with UBS Global Wealth Management, noted in a podcast last week that President Macron’s promise effectively keeps alive thousands of businesses that ought to be leaving the market (there were 52,000 insolvencies in France last year). British and German taxpayers looking at Royal Bank of Scotland and Commerzbank today may well wonder whether their money was spent wisely bailing the two banks out a decade ago.
However, those who dare to mention such risks at present don’t have a chance of success. Austrian central bank governor Robert Holzmann warned last week that such measures nullify the “purifying effects” of a downturn, citing the doctrine of the Austrian school of economics’ leading light Joseph Schumpeter, which holds that the “creative destruction” of recessions improves an economy’s long-term health. The ECB not only issued a statement contradicting what he said elsewhere in the interview, it also unfolded its 750 billion euro comfort blanket within 24 hours.
As Mark Schieritz, ECB correspondent for the left-leaning German newspaper Die Zeit, noted tartly, “The Austrian school should remain closed for the duration of this crisis.”