美股暴跌不止，高盛依舊樂觀
Anne Sraders
2020-03-18
高盛上周五表示，標普500指數或將在年中跌至2000點——相較當前下跌約20%，與歷史高點相比下跌41%。并稱，其正在結合美聯儲模型和歷史數據以預測觸底位置，且已在兩周內兩次下調了每股預測收益。該公司最新預測顯示，標普500指數每股收益將下降5%。
嘉信理財交易和衍生品副總裁蘭迪·弗雷德里克認為，市場很容易就會觸及2018年12月最低點，2351點。弗雷德里對《財富》雜志表示：“雖然周一較為接近底部，但目前尚未觸底。”但考慮到標普500指數在周一盤中曾跌至2400點，預計可能很快就將觸達這一底線了——“在這個市場里，5分鐘可能就會蒸發50點，”他說。
上周日，美聯儲緊急宣布降息，基準利率已降至接近零點，但這似乎并未給投資者情緒帶來積極影響。周一，股市剛開盤就暴跌超余7%，再次觸發熔斷機制。
預測股市將呈更大跌幅的，絕不止高盛一家。獨立顧問聯盟首席投資官克里斯·扎卡雷利認為股市走向很清晰。“前景不明朗時，市場自然趨勢當然是下行，”扎卡雷利在一則告示中表示。“但我預測，只要一出臺財政刺激措施或出現有關新冠肺炎的積極消息，市場就會出現大幅反彈。”
此般背景下，投資者該作何選擇？CFRA薩姆·斯托瓦爾告示中建議，不要“靠拋售來鎖定下跌風險，這會成為投資組合的最大敵人”。
Bankrate.com首席金融分析師格雷格·麥克布萊德也認同這一建議。他指出，盡管市場存在恐懼和不確定性，但投資者應著眼于未來，不要受困于經濟停擺的問題，要考慮商業活動和生活恢復正常后的情況，“考慮5年至10年以后的狀況，這可能有助于防止發生令人遺憾的下意識拋售行為，讓潛在的買入機會顯露出來。”他說。
但事實證明，許多投資者并沒有把這一建議放在心上——周一，道瓊斯指數和標普500指數盤中均暴跌逾11%。
嘉信理財弗雷德里克認為，最糟糕的情況可能還在后頭。由于市場暴跌速度如此之快，伴隨著新冠病毒傳播速度也相當迅速，我們還沒看到經濟數據受損的全貌。弗雷德里克指出，周一帝國制造業指數顯示，3月份制造業指數跌至創紀錄的-21.5，下降了34.4。該數據不僅遠低于4.8的預期，更是自2009年以來的最低水平。弗雷德里克表示，“在未來幾周，我們將不可避免地看到，所有數據都會嚴重惡化。”
但市場也并非毫無希望。高盛堅稱，標普500指數到今年底可能會回升至3200點——比當前上漲大約27%。（財富中文網）
譯者：Emily
高盛上周五表示，標普500指數或將在年中跌至2000點——相較當前下跌約20%，與歷史高點相比下跌41%。并稱，其正在結合美聯儲模型和歷史數據以預測觸底位置，且已在兩周內兩次下調了每股預測收益。該公司最新預測顯示，標普500指數每股收益將下降5%。
嘉信理財交易和衍生品副總裁蘭迪·弗雷德里克認為，市場很容易就會觸及2018年12月最低點，2351點。弗雷德里對《財富》雜志表示：“雖然周一較為接近底部，但目前尚未觸底。”但考慮到標普500指數在周一盤中曾跌至2400點，預計可能很快就將觸達這一底線了——“在這個市場里，5分鐘可能就會蒸發50點，”他說。
上周日，美聯儲緊急宣布降息，基準利率已降至接近零點，但這似乎并未給投資者情緒帶來積極影響。周一，股市剛開盤就暴跌超余7%，再次觸發熔斷機制。
預測股市將呈更大跌幅的，絕不止高盛一家。獨立顧問聯盟首席投資官克里斯·扎卡雷利認為股市走向很清晰。“前景不明朗時，市場自然趨勢當然是下行，”扎卡雷利在一則告示中表示。“但我預測，只要一出臺財政刺激措施或出現有關新冠肺炎的積極消息，市場就會出現大幅反彈。”
此般背景下，投資者該作何選擇？CFRA薩姆·斯托瓦爾告示中建議，不要“靠拋售來鎖定下跌風險，這會成為投資組合的最大敵人”。
Bankrate.com首席金融分析師格雷格·麥克布萊德也認同這一建議。他指出，盡管市場存在恐懼和不確定性，但投資者應著眼于未來，不要受困于經濟停擺的問題，要考慮商業活動和生活恢復正常后的情況，“考慮5年至10年以后的狀況，這可能有助于防止發生令人遺憾的下意識拋售行為，讓潛在的買入機會顯露出來。”他說。
但事實證明，許多投資者并沒有把這一建議放在心上——周一，道瓊斯指數和標普500指數盤中均暴跌逾11%。
嘉信理財弗雷德里克認為，最糟糕的情況可能還在后頭。由于市場暴跌速度如此之快，伴隨著新冠病毒傳播速度也相當迅速，我們還沒看到經濟數據受損的全貌。弗雷德里克指出，周一帝國制造業指數顯示，3月份制造業指數跌至創紀錄的-21.5，下降了34.4。該數據不僅遠低于4.8的預期，更是自2009年以來的最低水平。弗雷德里克表示，“在未來幾周，我們將不可避免地看到，所有數據都會嚴重惡化。”
但市場也并非毫無希望。高盛堅稱，標普500指數到今年底可能會回升至3200點——比當前上漲大約27%。（財富中文網）
譯者：Emily
The firm said Friday that the S&P 500 could see a mid-year trough at 2,000—that's down around 20% from current levels and 41% from its all-time high. Goldman says it is using the Fed model, a Dividend Discount Model, and history to come to that bottom—and has already cut its EPS forecast twice in two weeks (the firm is now forecasting S&P 500 EPS will decline by 5%) .
For those like Randy Frederick, the vice president of trading and derivatives at Charles Schwab, markets could easily test the lows from December of 2018, which is 2,351 on the S&P. "We got relatively close [on Monday] but we didn’t get there," Frederick tells Fortune. But given that the S&P 500 hit around 2,400 in intraday trading on Monday, it's likely the index might test that support level soon—"50 points could evaporate in five minutes in this market," he says.
An emergency Fed rate cut on Sunday that whittled interest rates effectively down to zero seemingly had no impact on investor sentiment, as stocks plunged over 7% right at the bell, triggering yet another circuit breaker.
But Goldman is by no means alone in seeing a steeper drop on the horizon. Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance, notes the trajectory is clear: "In the absence of more clarity, the market’s natural direction will be down," Zaccarelli said in a note. "However, I would expect sharp bounce backs whenever fiscal stimulus and/or more positive Covid-19 news develops."
The message for investors this week? Don't "become their portfolio’s worst enemy by locking in these declines by selling out," CFRA's Sam Stovall suggests in a note.
That rings true for Bankrate.com's chief financial analyst Greg McBride: "Despite fear and uncertainty, investors should think to the future, beyond the economic pause and when business and life resumes normalcy," he said in a note. "Thinking 5, 10 years down the road could prevent that regrettable knee-jerk selling reaction and reveal potential buying opportunities."
Many investors were not taking that message to heart on Monday, however, as the Dow and S&P 500 both plunged more than 11% in intraday trading.
Still, Charles Schwab's Frederick thinks the worst may be yet to come. Because the market plunge has been so fast (and the spread of coronavirus so rapid), we haven't seen much impact on economic data—yet. Frederick points to the Empire State manufacturing index data released Monday, which saw a record 34.4 point drop, coming in at negative 21.5 in March—that's not only way off estimates of a 4.8 reading, but is also the lowest level since 2009. Frederick says it's "inevitable we’re going to see some serious deterioration in all the data over the next few weeks."
But all hope is not lost. Goldman maintains the S&P 500 could likely end the year back up at 3,200 points—which would represent a roughly 27% increase from current levels.
