億萬富翁投資者沃倫?巴菲特今年發布的年度致股東信備受關注。他在信中提出了一個關乎美國未來的重要論斷：不要看衰美國的創新能力。

巴菲特寫道：“過去240年來，看衰美國從來都是一個可怕的錯誤，現在仍然是。商業和創新的金鵝將繼續為美國產下更多、更大的金蛋。”

不用說，巴菲特當然指的是某幾個行業。不過，我認為有幾個領域尤其值得注意，例如美國的現代能源基礎設施。它足以成為全球的典范，問題是，那些最聰明的頭腦正在錯過這次創新浪潮。

有時候，技術和產業的重大變革聲勢浩大。而另一些變革在掀起浪潮前，只有些許漣漪，即便是在最靠近的湖面上，人們也感覺不到他們的船只正在震動。

在20世紀80年代，麥肯錫咨詢公司曾經預測稱，到2000年，全球的手機銷售量將不足100萬部，因為它們太貴了，電池也太沉重，無法得到廣泛使用。這導致AT&T公司沒有在這一行業投資。聽起來是不是很熟悉？

最近出現的三大“漣漪”讓我們有機會窺探，美國將如何為家庭和企業提供不竭的動力。

首先，作為美國的創新中心和最大的太陽能市場，加利福尼亞取消了“凈電量結算上限”政策(net metering cap)，不再限制家庭和公司通過屋頂太陽能板向電網輸入的饋電量。此舉解除了限制加州太陽能飛速發展的最后一個瓶頸，也確定了凈電量結算在現代基礎設施中的重要地位，因為它能夠帶來能源的雙向流動。如今，紐約、科羅拉多和南卡羅萊納等其他41個州，也開始使用凈計量結算政策推動能源基礎設施走向現代化。

第二，國會擴大了太陽能投資稅的減免范圍，借此在全國推廣太陽能的使用。如今在美國的20個州，屋頂太陽能發電成本已經低于或等于電網用電。而在5年內，幾乎所有的州都可以實現這一點。過去60年中，政府給化石燃料和核能的補貼比風能和太陽能獲得的補貼高出8倍。盡管競爭環境如此不平等，太陽能的成本依然在迅速降低。

第三，各國政府在巴黎達成了一項歷史性的氣候協議，該協議將在接下來幾十年中逐步淘汰化石燃料，并增加對替代技術的需求。

太陽能的崛起不會令人意外。一些將權力賦予消費者的創新商業模式已經顛覆了規模巨大的行業，比如手機和出租車行業。

按需拼車應用為那些迫切希望以實惠價格打車的消費者帶來了新的技術，并借此顛覆了全球的出租車行業。隨著運營商以創新方式削減了消費者的成本，手機的使用量呈現指數級增長——這個速率要比麥肯錫預測的快得多。

消費者的購買決定告訴我們，哪些創新產品會取得成功。他們迅速投向拼車平臺的懷抱，也已成為一種不可避免的趨勢。2013年，優步平均每周提供100萬次打車服務，而如今，優步平均每天提供200萬次打車服務。盡管遭到一些地區出租車行業的堅決抵制，這一變革依舊發生了。類似的，消費者的巨大需求也在推動手機持有率不斷飆升。如今，每100個美國人就有103部手機——這一比例遠遠超過固定電話的使用率，甚至超過了后者的歷史最高點。而到2016年年中，美國的屋頂太陽能板也將覆蓋100萬個家庭。

所以，不要輕易忽視那些有志于顛覆成熟行業的新技術——以消費者為中心的美國創新最終將大獲全勝。（財富中文網）

本文作者林恩?朱里奇是Sunrun的首席執行官和共同創始人。

譯者：嚴匡正

審校：任文科

Billionaire investor Warren Buffett’s annual letter to shareholders recently gained a lot of attention when he pointed out one very important point about the future of America: don’t bet against U.S. innovation.

“For 240 years it’s been a terrible mistake to bet against America, and now is no time to start. America’s golden goose of commerce and innovation will continue to lay more and larger eggs,” Buffet commented.

Needless to say, Buffett is referring to several industries, but a few that I think deserves special attention include America’s modern energy infrastructure. It can be a model for the world; the problem is the smartest minds are missing this innovation wave.

Monumental shifts in technology and industry sometimes start with a bang. Other changes start with a ripple before growing into a wave. Even those who are closest to the surface sometimes don’t feel their boat rocking.

In the 1980’s, McKinsey & Company consultants predicted that there would be fewer than 1 million cell phones sold by 2000, stating they were too expensive and the batteries were too heavy for mainstream adoption. This kept AT&T from investing in this industry. Sound familiar?

We’ve recently seen three major ripples signaling the future of how America will power its homes and businesses.

First, in America’s innovation heartland and its largest solar market, California discarded its cap (i.e. removed the “net metering cap”) on how many households and businesses can plug into the electric grid with rooftop solar. This eliminated the last bottleneck to explosive solar growth in California. It also affirmed that net metering is a key component of a modern infrastructure through its ability to moderate a two-way flow of energy. Today, 41 other states, such as New York, Colorado and South Carolina, use net metering to modernize energy infrastructure.

Second, Congress extended the solar investment tax credit to enable solar to spread nationwide. Today, rooftop solar electricity costs the same or less than grid power in 20 states. In five years’ time, this will be true in nearly all states. Solar costs continue to come down rapidly despite competing on an unleveled playing field. Fossil fuels and nuclear power have received eight times more government subsidies than wind and solar over the past six decades.

Third, governments worldwide forged an historic climate agreement in Paris that will drive the global phase-out of fossil fuel generation over decades — and increase the demand for the technologies that can replace it.

The rise of solar shouldn’t be a surprise. Innovative business models that put power in the hands of consumers have upended huge industries—just look at mobile phones and taxis.

On-demand ride-sharing apps have rocked the established taxi industry worldwide by bringing new technology to consumers that are eager for accessible, affordable alternatives. Cell phone adoption grew exponentially as carriers innovated ways to bring costs down for consumers — at a rate much faster than even McKinsey could predict.

Purchasing decisions tell us which innovative products will succeed. Consumers’ rapid switch to ride-sharing platforms cemented the inevitability of the industry. In 2013, Uber averaged around 1 million rides per week; today, it averages 2 million rides per day. This shift took place amid staunch resistance from taxi incumbents in certain geographies. Similarly, cell phone ownership rates skyrocketed with intense consumer demand. Today, there 103 cell subscriptions for every 100 Americans — a rate far eclipsing the use of landlines, even at its height. With rooftop solar, the U.S. will cross one million homes in the first half of 2016.

So think twice before ignoring a new technology that’s poised to shake a powerful, established industry—American innovation that’s consumer-centric will win the day.

Lynn Jurich is CEO and co-founder of Sunrun.