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英特爾下任CEO必須走好4步棋

英特爾下任CEO必須走好4步棋

Kevin Kelleher 2012年12月07日
隨著移動設備不斷侵蝕傳統PC,芯片市場發生了重大的變化,科技巨頭英特爾將面臨困境。明年5月,英特爾現任CEO將卸任,擺在公司下一任首席執行官面前的將是一副沉重的擔子。但是這家傳奇性的公司仍然有辦法扭轉頹勢。
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????誰有興趣執掌一家年收入540億美元的科技巨頭?誰有辦法讓該公司再度出現增長?英特爾(Intel)正在物色新任首席執行官,在明年5月保羅·歐德寧卸任后執掌這家硅谷傳奇企業。

????自歐德寧2005年擔任英特爾首席執行官以來,該公司市值已經縮水22%。相比之下,納斯達克指數在經濟衰退中仍然上漲了52%。英特爾衰落的主要原因在于,隨著移動設備不斷侵蝕傳統PC,處理器市場發生了巨大變化。過去十年,歐德寧的功績在于帶領英特爾在工程技術方面取得了很大進步,但他在預測技術界的廣泛變革方面做得不夠。

????曾經有一度,歐德寧似乎在帶領英特爾不斷壯大。雖然公司股價在2009年經濟危機時期曾一度跌至12美元,但后來一路反彈。半年前,英特爾股價已經上漲到29美元。不過自那時起,平板電腦產業一路高歌猛進,對長期以來的微軟(Microsoft)和英特爾雙頭壟斷的沖擊也日益顯現,英特爾的股價也隨后跌至20美元以下。

????英特爾一度曾經憑借運行Windows軟件的個人電腦牢牢占據著芯片業霸主地位。不過時移境遷,ARM公司在移動設備領域的突飛猛進給英特爾帶來巨大沖擊。雖然英特爾試圖向智能手機和平板電腦平臺推廣x86架構芯片,但其銷量遠遠不及ARM架構的芯片。投資者們開始質疑,英特爾是否廉頗老矣?

????所以,歐德寧的繼任者將面臨嚴峻挑戰。分析人士預計,英特爾營收在2012年將出現下滑,自2009年以來首次出現這種情況。英特爾每股盈利也會跌至2.11美元,下滑約12%。步入2013年,英特爾的頹勢還將繼續,每股盈利會進一步跌至1.95美元。不過,英特爾仍有不少辦法扭轉財務困境。下面是四條可行的途徑:

????第一:拉攏蘋果(Apple)。對于一家計算機公司而言,更換芯片架構是一個極具風險的重大決定。但蘋果于2005年在臺式機和筆記本電腦中引入了英特爾處理器。然而,假如Mac OS X與iOS結合——此刻看來,此舉似乎勢在必行,那么這一幕將重現。

????近來有傳言稱,蘋果可能在Mac電腦中引入ARM處理器,雖然時間可能在數年之后。但反之也有可能。加拿大皇家銀行(RBC)分析師道格·弗里德曼上周就在一項研究報告中寫道,隨著蘋果不再將三星(Samsung)作為代工廠,蘋果可能在下一代iPad中采用英特爾x86芯片。

????Anyone care to run an $54 billion-a-year tech giant? Anyone have any good ideas how to get it growing again? Intel?is looking for a new CEO to take the reins at the Silicon Valley icon next May, when?Paul Otellini steps down?from the job.

????Since Otellini became CEO in May 2005, the stock has lost 22% of its value, against a 52% gain for a recession-challenged Nasdaq. Much of Intel's (INTC)?decline has to do with secular changes in the market for processors as mobile devices have eaten into demand for PCs. Otellini's legacy is seen as?strong on engineering advances?but not so strong on anticipating the broad changes seen in the tech world over the past decade.

????For a while, Otellini looked to be managing Intel's growth well enough. After Intel's stock bottomed out at $12 a share in the recession of 2009, it rebounded to $29 a share six months ago. Since then, the toll that the tablet economy is having on the?longtime WinTel PC monopoly?has become more evident, and the stock has fallen back below $20 a share.

????Intel has gone from dominating the chips made in personal computers running Windows software to being threatened by ARM design chips, which dominate mobile devices. It's producing chips based on the x86 architecture?for smartphones and tablets. But?these aren't sellinganywhere nearly as well as ARM-based devices, and investors are starting to be concerned that time is running out.

????So Otellini's successor will face some daunting challenges. Analysts are expecting revenue to decline in 2012 for the first time since 2009 and earnings to fall by 12% to $2.11 a share. In 2013, they're expected to fall further -- to $1.95 a share. There are a few things, however, that Intel can do to get its financials growing again. Here are some possibilities:

????N0. 1 Keep Apple happy.?Switching to a new chip architecture is a big and risky decision for a computer maker, but Apple (AAPL) moved to Intel processors for its desktops and laptops in 2005. But it's going to happen again if Mac OS X merges with iOS, which seems all but inevitable at this point.

????Recent rumors suggest Apple could move to ARM processors in its Mac computers, although that could take years. But the reverse could also happen. RBC analyst Doug Freedman wrote in a research note last week that Apple,?as it moves from Samsung as a foundry, could opt for Intel's x86 chips in its next generation iPad.

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