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庫克掌舵蘋果這一年

庫克掌舵蘋果這一年

Adam Lashinsky 2012年08月28日
蒂姆?庫克榮登蘋果首席執行官寶座已經一周年,蘋果的業務繼續高歌猛進——公司市值增長了約2,700億美元,股價也上漲了77%。然而,有些人認為,這些成績依然要歸功于已經離世的喬布斯。

????一年前的今天,斯蒂夫?喬布斯宣布辭去蘋果(Apple)首席執行官一職。這本不應讓人感到吃驚,但當時消息一出確實引發了不小的震動。蘋果公司宣布,喬布斯將擔任此前空缺的董事長一職。喬布斯仍將參與公司工作,他將作為指引公司方向的一盞明燈,但不再是親自沖鋒陷陣的執行者。是的,他們就是這樣告訴我們的。喬布斯健康狀況下滑時,蒂姆?庫克這位出色但沉默寡言的首席營運官早已在掌管著蘋果公司大部分的業務。因此,不會有太多改變。

????當時的這一說法基本上是對的,只是在一個關鍵點上有出入。沒錯,六周后喬布斯就病逝了。伴隨著他的離世是席卷全球的哀痛、感人的員工追思會和一部全球暢銷傳記(傳記里并不全是溢美之詞)。蘋果在喬布斯欽點人選的領導下,延續著原有的軌跡。這一年,蘋果公司推出的產品基本上都屬錦上添花,并非革命性產品。(iPhone 4S和“新”iPad都很難說給這個世界帶來了什么改變。)高級管理層也一直基本保持穩定。公司利潤持續激增。蘋果著名的守口如瓶的運營方式繼續飛速發展——盡管有些做法招致如潮批評,特別是在《紐約時報》(The New York Times)上。

????簡言之,蘋果總體上還是蘋果。它沒有犯錯,還做出了一些改變。蘋果開始支付股息了。模糊地感覺到蘋果變得更加職業化了,因而神秘感也減少了。作為全球市值最高的公司而受到的審視和質疑,令蘋果的光輝形象些許受到了些損害。

????眼前的挑戰是如何理解這些改變。對蘋果的分析已經到了條分縷析的地步,難以分清什么是真正的改變,什么是背景噪音。自以為有品位的廣告界人士聲稱,史蒂夫?喬布斯絕不會批準蘋果在倫敦奧運會期間投放的那則低劣且自降身份的“Genius”廣告。行將末路?也許吧。但也許不會。距離上次蘋果發布震撼人心的產品已經過了“很長”時間,這么說如今已成為風尚。從2007年iPhone發布到2010年iPad發布經歷了三年時間。如今看來,蘋果的電視產品——不管會成什么樣——都還有一些時間。

????近來頭腦有點亂的華爾街當然也不知道如何理解蒂姆?庫克時代。喬布斯辭職那天,蘋果股價收于374美元。7月末,這只股票的股價已經接近600美元,當蘋果發布了令人失望的季度業績后,股價被推低至570美元。自那以來沒有實質性消息傳出,投資者斷定狀況沒那么糟。上周四該股收于662.63美元。在蒂姆?庫克擔任首席執行官的一年中,蘋果股價上漲了77%——市值上漲超過2,700億美元。令人稱奇的是,按照任何通常標準,蘋果股價看起來仍不貴,股價僅為華爾街今年預期每股收益的15倍。

????雖然投資者給庫克打出了高分,雇員和合作伙伴也紛紛給予好評,但普遍看法是蘋果當前的成功仍應歸功于史蒂夫?喬布斯當初制定的計劃。但很快,我們就將能夠評判庫克和高管團隊(基本保持不變)這些人自己的表現了。(蘋果零售部門負責人羅恩?約翰遜告訴喬布斯,他將離開公司到J.C. Penney任職,庫克用歐洲零售業高級管理人士約翰?布勞威特填補了這一空缺。蘋果硬件負責人鮑勃?曼斯費爾德最近宣布退休,他的副手接替了他的職位。)

????雖然Macintosh業務非常穩定,蘋果總體上仍然是一家靠人氣帶動的公司。為了在龐大的規模之上繼續增長,它需要不斷地給顧客帶來驚喜。循序漸進不能持續太長時間,每個人都期待蒂姆?庫克最早于下個月就推出全新產品。一年帶來了什么變化?后喬布斯之時代的蘋果,一年的時間似乎還不足以看出什么改變。

????譯者:早稻米

????It shouldn't have felt like a surprise, but it did, when the news broke a year ago today that Steve Jobs was stepping down as CEO of Apple. He was becoming chairman of the board, a previously unfilled position, Apple announced. Jobs would remain involved with the company, a guiding light rather than a hands-on taskmaster, we were led to believe. Tim Cook, the strong-but-silent chief operating officer, already had been running most of Apple as Jobs's health declined. So not much would change.

????That assessment, though wrong in one key respect, turned out to be largely true. Jobs, of course, died six weeks later. A global outpouring of grief, a heart-tugging employee celebration and aninternational best-selling (and not altogether flattering) biography heralded his passing. Yet Apple under the CEO Jobs hand-picked to succeed him has been the very definition of staying the course. The company's product introductions during the year have been incremental, not revolutionary. (The iPhone 4S and a "new," third-generation iPad hardly constitute putting a dent in the universe.) Senior management has been largely stable. Profits have continued to soar. Apple's (AAPL) infamously tight-lipped operation has continued apace -- despite a torrent of criticism over some of its practices, notably in The New York Times.

????In short, Apple by and large has continued to be Apple. Make no mistake, there have been changes. Apple now pays a dividend. There is a vague sense that the company has become more professional and therefore less magical. With the scrutiny of being the world's most valuable company come scratches on the shiny veneer.

????The challenge is what to make of the changes. Apple is so thoroughly analyzed that it becomes difficult to know what constitutes real change and what is background noise. Advertising snobs said Steve Jobs never would have approved the cheesy and demeaning "Genius" ads Apple ran during the London Olympics. A sign of the apocalypse? Maybe. But probably not. It has become fashionable to say a "long time" has passed since Apple released a mind-blowing product. Well, the gap between the iPhone in 2007 and the iPad in 2010 was three years.Apple's TV effort, whatever it's going to be, has some time left.

????Wall Street, hardly a model of clear thinking of late, certainly doesn't know what to make of the Tim Cook era. Apple's stock closed at $374 per share the day Jobs resigned. It was trading near $600 in late July, when Apple reported a disappointing quarter, sending the shares to $570. With no real news since, investors have decided the situation isn't so glum after all. Apple's stock closed Thursday at $662.63. That's an increase of 77% -- or more than $270 billion in market capitalization -- in the year Cook has been CEO. Amazingly, shares of Apple remain inexpensive by any normal standards at a multiple of 15 times Wall Street's estimates of current-year earnings.

????While Cook wins high marks from investors and generally favorable reviews from employees and partners, the conventional wisdom is that the current success of Apple continues to be attributable to the plans put in place by Steve Jobs. Soon enough, though, we'll be able to start judging on their own merits Cook and the team of senior managers he has largely held together. (Retail chief Ron Johnson told Jobs he was leaving for J.C. Penney (JCP), and Cook filled the spot with European retailing executive John Browett. Hardware boss Bob Mansfield recently announced his retirement and is being replaced by a lieutenant.)

????Apple, despite its annuity-like Macintosh division, is a hits-driven business. To grow at its massive scale it needs to continue to wow customers. Incrementalism won't cut it for long, and everyone expects Tim Cook to unveil brand-new gadgets as soon as next month. What difference does a year make? With Apple after Steve Jobs, it's probably not enough time to tell.

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