“沃倫?巴菲特接班人”魔咒
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沃倫?巴菲特 ????在體育界，人們一直對美國《體育畫報》（Sports Illustrated ）厄運津津樂道：運動員一旦登上了這本雜志的封面，馬上就會匪夷所思地陷入低谷。而在商界，“沃倫?巴菲特接班人”這幾個詞具有同樣的魔力，詛咒與之如影隨形。不論是頗有投資大師風范的商界后起之秀，伯克希爾?哈撒韋公司（Berkshire Hathaway）最有希望的接班人，還是任何其他具有巴菲特特質的人，都沒能躲過這個魔咒——有些人甚至輸得一敗涂地。 ????早在幾年之前，SI便開始為《體育畫報》的厄運尋找統計證據或者反證。一位反對者指出，這些運動員只不過是從巔峰狀態回復到了平均水平。換句話說，登上雜志封面，并不是因為媒體預測到他們未來會成功——而是因為他們正處在巔峰。 ????任何可能成為下一個巴菲特的人們都應該銘記一點：從統計學上來看，“奧馬哈先知”巴菲特是獨一無二的。 大衛?索科爾 ????今年，大衛?索科爾辭去了在伯克希爾?哈撒韋公司及其旗下的奈特捷（NetJets）公司的職務。在此之前，大衛?索科爾被普遍認為是巴菲特最有希望的接班人。2010年，美國國家廣播公司商業新聞臺（CNBC）從陳惠仁編著的《巴菲特的幕后智囊團》（Behind the Berkshire Hathaway Curtain）一書中摘錄了部分內容，標題為“‘下一任’沃倫?巴菲特向‘現任’沃倫?巴菲特取經”。在摘錄中，索科爾提到，他學到的最重要的一點是，在制定商業決策時，要拋開個人情感。 ????但是，今年三月，索科爾辭去了伯克希爾?哈撒韋公司經理一職，也失去了作為“沃倫?巴菲特”接班人的身份。索科爾的離職可能與其違反內幕交易的規定有關，在伯克希爾公司宣布收購化學公司路博潤（Lubrizol）的計劃之前，他已經購買了該公司的股票。而在今年4月份，伯克希爾公司的年度股東大會上，原先力挺索科爾的巴菲特表示，索科爾的行為是“難以理解和不可原諒的”，這使索科爾的聲望繼續下滑。 埃迪?蘭伯特 ????2004年的時候，埃迪?蘭伯特可謂志得意滿。那時，他還在計劃合并零售業巨頭凱馬特（Kmart）與西爾斯（Sears）。《彭博商業周刊》（Bloomberg BusinessWeek）將蘭伯特稱為“巴菲特第二”，并把他對西爾斯公司的投資與巴菲特收購紡織企業伯克希爾?哈撒韋公司的投資相提并論。當時，西爾斯公司正面臨困境。而在被巴菲特收購之前，伯克希爾?哈撒韋公司也是一直處于虧損。 ????2004年是蘭伯特的全盛時期，在這一年，他旗下的對沖基金ESL投資公司（ESL Investments）連續15年平均年收益高達30%。而2003年剛剛走出破產陰影的凱馬特，憑借蘭伯特的投資，公司股票價格激增了300%。兩年之后，《財富》雜志將蘭伯特稱為“同代人中最棒的投資者”和“投資界的史蒂夫?喬布斯”。 ????但是，蘭伯特對西爾斯—凱馬特合并后的投資，卻并不順利。截至2011年5月4日，西爾斯的同店銷售額連續十年持續下降。在2010年致西爾斯股東的信中，蘭伯特表示：“我們的財務業績依然讓人無法接受。”而伯克希爾的股東卻很少聽到這種話。 路易斯?辛普森 ????2000年，《福布斯》（Forbes ）雜志的一篇文章在開頭寫道：“沃倫?巴菲特的接班人，是一位隱士，就像奧馬哈的傳奇巫師一樣，他致力于價值投資。”這位傳奇巫師，指的便是政府雇員保險公司（Geico）總裁兼資本運營首席執行官——路易斯?辛普森。在1995年巴菲特致股東的信中，《福布斯》找到了令人信服的證據，證明辛普森在巴菲特心目中的卓越地位，信中寫道：“[盧]的加盟，使伯克希爾可以擁有一位出色的專業人才，如果[副總裁查理?芒格]和我發生意外，他可以處理公司的投資。” ????但是近期，辛普森卻退出了巴菲特接班人的行列。在Geico任職31年后，他于2010年底退休。目前，辛普森與他的妻子在美國佛羅里達州的那不勒斯共同經營一家名為SQ Advisors LLC的投資顧問公司。 勒布朗?詹姆斯 ????2007年，CNNMoney 刊登了一篇名為《勒布朗：下一個巴菲特？》的文章，重點描述了籃球巨星勒布朗?詹姆斯在球場之外的商業頭腦。《福布斯》在同年發表了一篇文章，稱詹姆斯擺脫了運動員投資者的傳統投資模式，因為他并沒有把自己的投資決定權全盤委托給代理人。相反，詹姆斯幫助他的經紀人馬弗里克?卡特成立了LRMR體育市場運營公司，負責自己所有的媒體業務，幫助體育明星商談公司協議。LRMR負責運作了勒布朗?詹姆斯聲名狼藉的ESPN專訪——《重大決定》（The Decision）。該節目在去年播出，詹姆斯花了整整一個小時的時間，告訴全世界，他將要離開克里夫蘭騎士隊（Cleveland Cavaliers），轉投邁阿密熱火隊（Miami Heat）。 ????而巴菲特呢？1957年，巴菲特在奧馬哈買下了一棟房子，至今依然住在那里，并且贏得了全鎮人的尊敬。 李路 ????根據《華爾街日報》（Wall Street Journal）2010年的一篇報道，在參加一位共同的朋友舉辦的感恩節宴會上，李路結識了巴菲特的得力助手查理?芒格，兩人一見如故。芒格在接受《華爾街日報》采訪時表示，他認為，李成為伯克希爾的頂級投資經理，是“預料中的必然結果”。2010年8月，《華爾街日報》發表了一篇名為《誰將是更優秀的巴菲特接班人：李路還是大衛?索科爾？》的博客，文中對兩位潛在接班人的資質進行了對比。 ????雖然李并未像索科爾那樣戲劇性地離開，但是，他也從來沒有真正為伯克希爾工作過。目前，他管理著自己創辦的公司——喜馬拉雅資本管理公司（Himalaya Capital Management）。在公司創辦之初，芒格曾協助其募集資金。 漢克?格林伯格 ????2000年，《紐約時報》（ New York Times ）的一篇文章指出，盡管巴菲特憑借其投資天賦為自己贏得了榮譽，但美國國際集團（AIG）的首席執行官莫里斯?“漢克”?格林伯格卻讓AIG賺得缽滿盆滿。文章表示，以十年期計算，在1990年投資AIG將比投資伯克希爾有更高的投資回報。盡管文章并沒有將格林伯格稱為“下一個沃倫?巴菲特”，但它將兩人管理各自保險業務的方式進行了對比，結果顯示，格林伯格所做的投資決定，有時更為明智。 ????但是，五年之后，格林伯格便失去了與巴菲特平起平坐的資格。當時的紐約州司法部長埃利奧特?斯皮策找到了證據，證明格林伯格在AIG存在欺詐行為。 ????格林伯格在爭議聲中辭職，目前在金融服務公司斯塔爾投資集團（C.V. Starr & Co.）擔任首席執行官。該公司以AIG創始人科尼利厄斯?范德?斯塔爾的名字命名。據報道，格林伯格一直計劃將斯塔爾打造成“AIG第二”。鑒于他的老東家已經向美國財政部提出了850億美元緊急救助的申請，看來他的目標或許也只剩一步之遙。 比爾茲敦女士投資俱樂部（The Beardstown Ladies） ????這個組織由伊利諾伊州比爾茲敦的一群老年女性發起成立，曾在在二十世紀九十年代中期引起了轟動。她們聲稱，這家成立于1983年的俱樂部年投資收益率超過23%。她們出版的《比爾茲敦女士的常識投資指南》（The Beardstown Ladies' Common-Sense Investment Guide）一書曾經登上《紐約時報》的暢銷書排行榜。 ????然而，這群民間專家的經驗之談后來被證實是站不住腳的。那些令人心動的數字竟然是因為計算錯誤導致的。俱樂部請審計師對其23%的年收益率數值進行了核查，結果發現實際回報率僅為9.1%，低于標準普爾500（Standard & Poor 500's）當時的平均記錄。由此可見，要想像巴菲特那樣獲得高額回報，最起碼數字運算不能出錯。 |
Warren Buffett ????In sports, they talk about the Sports Illustrated jinx: the mysterious slump that happens when an athlete makes it onto the magazine's cover. In business, the curse is summoned with four magic words: "the next Warren Buffett." Whether the up-and-comer is trading like the great investor, a potential successor at Berkshire Hathaway or just has Buffett's bearing, each one has failed to live up to the hype -- several of them disastrously so. ????A few years back, SI went looking forstatistical proof or disproof of the jinx. One naysayer pointed out that these athletes were simply reverting to the mean. In other words, making the cover is not the media predicting future success -- it's calling the top. ????That's something worth remembering for would-be-Buffetts: Statistically speaking, the Oracle of Omaha is unlikely to ever be matched. David Sokol ????Before his resignation from his roles at Berkshire Hathaway and its subsidiary NetJets this year, David Sokol was widely considered Buffett's heir apparent. In 2010, CNBC ran an excerpt titled "The 'Next' Warren Buffett on what he's learned from the 'current' Warren Buffett" from Ronald W. Chan's book Behind the Berkshire Hathaway Curtain. A key lesson Sokol mentioned in the excerpt was the importance of removing emotion from business decisions. ????But Sokol lost his standing as "the next Warren Buffett" when he resigned from his position as a manager at Berkshire Hathaway this past March. His departure coincided with the possibility that he violated insider-trading rules when he purchased shares in chemicals company Lubrizol before Berkshire announced plans to buy the company. Sokol's fall from grace continued when Buffett, formerly supportive of Sokol, said in April at Berkshire's annual shareholder's meeting that Sokol's actions were "inexplicable and inexcusable." Eddie Lampert ????Eddie Lampert looked like he was on top of the world in 2004 when he was still planning to merge giant retailers Kmart and Sears. Bloomberg BusinessWeek dubbed Lampert "the next Warren Buffett," comparing his investment in the flagging Sears to Buffett's purchase of the textile company Berkshire Hathaway, which was losing money before Buffett bought it. ????During Lampert's heyday in 2004, his hedge fund ESL Investments had had a 15-year run of 30% average annual returns. Kmart, which had just crawled out of bankruptcy in 2003, had a 300% jump in stock price thanks to Lampert's investment. Two years later, Fortune called Lampert, "the best investor of his generation" and "the Steve Jobs of investing." ????But Lampert's investment in the Sears-Kmart combo has been a dog, not a Dairy Queen. As of May 4, 2011, same-store sales at Sears had dropped every year for a decade. Lampert's 2010 annual letter to Sears shareholders stated, "Our financial results remain at unacceptable levels," a line Berkshire shareholders seldom encounter. Louis Simpson ????A 2000 Forbes piece began, "the next Warren Buffett is a reclusive soul who, like Omaha's legendary wizard, is devoted to value investing." It was referring to Geico's President and CEO of Capital Operations, Louis Simpson. Forbes found convincing evidence for Simpson's eminence in Buffett's 1995 annual letter, which said, "[Lou's] presence on the scene assures us that Berkshire would have an extraordinary professional immediately available to handle its investments if something were to happen to [Vice Chairman Charles Munger] and me." ????But Simpson recently stepped out of the line of succession. After 31 years with Geico, he left his position at the end of 2010. Simpson retired, and now is managing an investment firm, called SQ Advisors LLC, with his wife in Naples, Florida. LeBron James ????In 2007, CNNMoney published a piece called, "LeBron: The Next Buffett?" that highlighted basketball star LeBron James' business savvy beyond the court. In an article the same year, Fortune described James' deviating from the typical athlete-investor path because he didn't outsource all of his investment decisions to an agent. Instead, James took charge of his media deals by helping his business manager Maverick Carter found LRMR, a company that helps sports celebrities negotiate corporate agreements. ????LRMR managed LeBron James' infamous EPSN special, "The Decision." Aired last year, James took a full hour to tell the world that he was leaving the Cleveland Cavaliers to play for the Miami Heat. ????Buffett? Still living in the Omaha house he purchased in 1957 and revered all over town. Li Lu ????Li hit it off with Buffett's right-hand-man Charlie Munger when they met at a mutual friend's Thanksgiving dinner in 2003, according to a 2010 story in the Wall Street Journal. Munger told the Journal that he considered it "a foregone conclusion" that Li would become a top investing official at Berkshire. In August, a Journal blog post titled "Who Is the Better Buffett 2.0: Li Lu or David Sokol?" compared the qualifications of each as potential successors. ????Li didn't leave the running as dramatically as Sokol, but instead, he never started working at Berkshire. He now runs his own company called Himalaya Capital Management, which Munger helped fund in its early days. Hank Greenberg ????A 2000 New York Times article pointed out that while Warren Buffett was getting the credit for his investing genius, AIG CEO Maurice "Hank" Greenberg was running quite a profitable operation at AIG. The article claimed a 1990 investment in AIG would have generated better returns than one in Berkshire for that ten-year period. While the text doesn't call Greenberg "the next Warren Buffett," it compares the way the two men ruled their respective insurance businesses and suggests that Greenberg sometimes made the better investments of the two moguls. ????But Greenberg's status as on par with Buffett crashed five years later, when an investigation by then New York attorney general Eliot Spitzer turned up evidence that Greenberg had overseen fraudulent activities at AIG. ????Greenberg resigned in the midst of the controversy, and now is CEO of financial services firm C.V. Starr and Co., named after AIG's founder, Cornelius Vander Starr. Greenberg has been reported to be building AIG 2 at Starr, presumably stopping short of the period when his old firm required an $85 billion bailout from the U.S. Treasury. The Beardstown Ladies ????A group of elderly women from Beardstown, Ill. caused a stir in the mid-'90s when they claimed their club, founded in 1983, had realized an annual return of more than 23% on their investments. The book they published, "The Beardstown Ladies' Common-Sense Investment Guide," became a New York Times best-seller. ????But the folksy know-how of the group proved too good to be true and the impressive numbers attributable to mathematical errors. The group checked its 23% number with an auditor who discovered the return was really 9.1%, well under the Standard & Poor 500's record average at the time. Turns out, one of the basic requirements of getting returns like Buffett is doing the math right. |
